2013 Game 123: Metropolitans at Twins



DAY GAME ALERT!

Remember when it snowed in the middle of April and the final game of the Twins series against the Mets got postponed and it seemed like winter was never going to end and a few days later it snowed again and I got appendicitis and shoveled snow anyway and my appendix ruptured and it hurt like bloody hell and I had to have emergency surgery? Well, it happened whether you remember it or not, and I've got the scars to prove it. Today the Twins and Mets are going to play that postponed game and the Mets have a chance to sweep a series that they won more than four months ago by taking the first two games at Target Field. The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the mound. If he sucks again, I'm demanding an immediate MRI. The Mets counter with Dillon Gee, who doesn't suck but doesn't exactly sparkle like unicorn farts, either.

Play ball!

59 thoughts on “2013 Game 123: Metropolitans at Twins”

  1. I have a conference call in an hour, so I want all the excitement in this one to be frontloaded.

    Prediction: Gibby breaks down in the 3rd with arm trouble.

    1. Prediction: Gibby breaks down in the 3rd with arm trouble.

      Which is discovered about a month from now.

  2. Mets: "Was that ruled a hit? Come on. That's the worst home scoring I've ever seen!"

    Sadly, we've seen much worse, though he's spot on that Trader Clete doesn't deserve a hit here.

  3. No TV, and the Pohlads own the crappiest radio station in the Twins Cities. I'd have better luck tuning in a NYC station than K-TWIN. Boo.

    1. Really? I've been annoyed by how clear it sounds vs the old 1500 AM signal.
      Harder to ignore the lame "Gingers" commercial. (among others)

      1. I can get it upstairs, but no go in the basement (and it's a split level, so only half the basement is below grade). I get every other FM station just fine.

    1. They were going to shut him down after about 150 innings. He came into this game with about 140 IP. So he should be good for 3 or 4 more starts.

    1. Yeah, I've been less than impressed. He has a nice GB% of 49.4% (would be about 20th if he had enough innings), but that's it.

    2. Frankie V had a pretty rough first ten starts too.

      For the season in 1982 (22 starts): 5.21 ERA (82 ERA+), 126 innings,84:38 K:BB, 22 HR, opponents hit 302/351/491, .327 BABIP.

      1. But he was 22. To be fair to Gibson, needing surgery eliminated the possibility of him coming up late in his age 23 season.

      2. Viola was only 22, though. Gibson is 25. TJ, yes, that's a factor, but he's three years older and much worse.

      3. Continuing off of SBG: Viola had a 4.56 FIP in 1982, only 6% worse than league average for pitchers. He was an average starting pitcher at 22. Gibson's FIP is 5.28, 32% worse than league average.

        1. This season is essentially lost for him. I'd like to see him come back next year with a spot fairly guaranteed on the starting rotation to see what he can do if given a clean slate start to the year.

          That said, I'm not particularly fond of where this appears to be headed.

      4. But how can this be? We've been promised the once and future king ace legitimate starter! He's been penciled into every iteration of the long-term rotation 'reload' since he started playing long toss last summer!

  4. If the Twins lose this game, they will have the same record as they did at this point in 2011. 75% of their games remaining are against teams with winning records.

  5. Rk Year Tm Lg G W L Ties W-L% Finish R RA BatAge PitchAge #Bat #Pitch Top Player Managers
    1 1904 Washington Senators AL 157 38 113 6 .252 8th of 8 437 743 27.8 26.8 27 9 C.Patten (3.8) Malachi Kittridge (1-16) and Patsy Donovan (37-97)
    2 1909 Washington Senators AL 156 42 110 4 .276 8th of 8 380 656 28.0 26.4 44 17 W.Johnson (3.7) Joe Cantillon (42-110)
    3 1903 Washington Senators AL 140 43 94 3 .314 8th of 8 437 691 29.1 27.0 22 6 H.Wilson (3.1) Tom Loftus (43-94)
    4 1907 Washington Senators AL 154 49 102 3 .325 8th of 8 506 693 29.4 28.1 36 15 C.Smith (3.5) Joe Cantillon (49-102)
    5 1949 Washington Senators AL 154 50 104 0 .325 8th of 8 584 868 28.6 29.6 37 18 E.Robinson (2.4) Joe Kuhel (50-104)
    6 1955 Washington Senators AL 154 53 101 0 .344 8th of 8 598 789 27.5 26.1 40 16 M.McDermott (3.1) Chuck Dressen (53-101)
    7 1957 Washington Senators AL 154 55 99 0 .357 8th of 8 603 808 28.4 25.4 41 19 R.Sievers (4.6) Chuck Dressen (4-16) and Cookie Lavagetto (51-83)
    8 1948 Washington Senators AL 154 56 97 1 .366 7th of 8 578 796 28.5 29.8 35 15 R.Scarborough (5.5) Joe Kuhel (56-97)
    9 1906 Washington Senators AL 151 55 95 1 .367 7th of 8 519 665 29.6 29.0 28 13 C.Patten (4.4) Jake Stahl (55-95)
    10 1982 Minnesota Twins AL West 162 60 102 0 .370 7th of 7 657 819 25.3 25.2 39 17 T.Brunansky (5.6) Billy Gardner (60-102)
    1. Well...you get the idea.

      Rk Year Tm Lg G W L Ties W-L% Finish R RA Bat Age Pitch Age #Bat #Pitch Top Player Managers
      14 2011 Minnesota Twins AL Central 162 63 99 0 .389 5th of 5 619 804 27.6 28.5 45 24 S.Baker (4.4) Ron Gardenhire (63-99)
      19 2012 Minnesota Twins AL Central 162 66 96 0 .407 5th of 5 701 832 28.8 27.8 47 25 D.Span (5.1) Ron Gardenhire (66-96)
    2. vaguely apropos, Mauer is on track to lead the club in rWAR again this year. It would be his fifth career season of 5.0+ rWAR.

      In comparison, Johnny Bench had eight such seasons, the last of which was his age-31 season. Pudge had 5, the last of which was his age-29 season. The Kid had 8, last of which was age-31. Yogi, 4 (age-31). Coinkadinkally, Mauer is in his age-30 season. Ruh roh.

      1. Piazza had six five-win seasons, the last of which was age 31. I'm okay with Mauer merely being a top 5 or 6 catcher instead of best ever.

      1. sean - will you edit that first table for me? Delete the playoffs column and the extra commas between the team name in row 7 and the league name in row 10. I ran out of time to edit and hate having my garbage matching the team's performance...embarrassing.

  6. I thought that the Twins should have given Gibson a shot. Now that they have, am I completely off base to think that his ceiling is a moderately well-to-do man's Nick Blackburn? 'Cause that's what I'm thinking.

    1. I think that's selling him short.

      Their AAA numbers:

      Dude IP SO/9 BB/9 H/9
      Blackburn 188 4.2 1.4 9.0
      Gibson 210.1 8.1 2.6 9.0

      I'm picturing Gibson more as Baker 2.0, Finally Keeping it Down.

      1. Dude IP SO/9 BB/9 H/9
        Baker 316 7.2 2.0 8.5
        Blackburn 188 4.2 1.4 9.0
        Gibson 210.1 8.1 2.6 9.0

        Wow. Tim Tim TiMMEY spent a lot of time at AAA.

          1. K/BB overvalues low walk pitchers. A better method is to use K-BB like FIP. Using that instead, Gibson has a K-BB of 5.5 compared to Blackburn's 2.8. League average K-BB this year is 4.6, so it's easy to see why Blackburn sucked despite having an above average K/BB.

  7. Is anyone else watching the Rock Cats game on FSN? Some super slow dude just got Ullger'd. So instead of getting to watch Sano hit with the bases loaded and two outs, they let them out of the inning. The Twins Way really does extend to the minors!

  8. Watching the game today, I wouldn't have said that Gibson was unlucky. However, the Mets were 10-for-16 with nine singles and a double on balls in play. If every ball in play was a line drive you would expect him to give up 11 hits.

    Str% S/Str F/Str I/Str AS/Str AS/Pit Con 1st%
    Andrew Albers* 66% 8% 21% 38% 66% 44% 88% 68%
    Kevin Correia 63% 11% 28% 35% 74% 46% 85% 59%
    Sam Deduno 61% 12% 23% 33% 69% 42% 82% 52%
    Scott Diamond* 62% 10% 27% 35% 72% 45% 86% 57%
    Kyle Gibson 59% 15% 26% 35% 75% 44% 80% 51%
    Liam Hendriks 66% 12% 32% 32% 76% 50% 84% 60%
    Pedro Hernandez* 61% 11% 29% 32% 72% 45% 84% 57%
    Mike Pelfrey 61% 10% 32% 32% 73% 45% 86% 55%
    P.J. Walters 61% 11% 22% 35% 67% 41% 84% 56%
    Vance Worley 63% 8% 32% 33% 73% 47% 89% 59%
    League Average 63% 16% 27% 29% 72% 46% 78% 60%
    Team Total 63% 13% 28% 32% 73% 46% 82% 57%
    Str% S/Str F/Str I/Str AS/Str AS/Pit Con 1st%

    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 8/19/2013.

    Looking at this table, Gibson has thrown the fewest strikes, but when batters do swing, they make contact less against him than any others. Albers' contact rate in just three starts is concerning.

    1. Albers' CG shut out was fun, but man did he ever give up a lot of loud outs in that game. I think Dick was comparing him to Jim Kaat during that game. I think our expectations have been lowered in Twins Territory.

  9. Okay, Twins, I get it. Minnesota Nice requires you to take it easy on the rest of the league and give the other teams a chance for a while. Now, though, it's time to assert yourselves and take control. We'll just have to settle for 93-69!

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