51 thoughts on “game 161: clevelanders @ twins”

  1. I was thinking that DeVries had tomorrow's game, but no, that's Scott Diamond. All that's sitting between the Twins and 96 losses is DeVries and Diamond facing a team desperate to win and secure a playoff spot. #wecandothis

    Plus, the Cubs are facing a St. Louis club that clinched. #3rdpickherewecome

  2. Dave St. Peter ‏@TwinsPrez
    Rain delay continues at #TargetField. Looking like 1pm start is not reality. Hoping to get cranked up soon.

    1. I'm not going to be the one to point out that there's no delays with a dome. And speakers to carom off of. And blowers for the home team ABs.

  3. Multi-tasking: blogging and marinating at the same time! Trying to extend Sicily vacation into week 2.

    Agneddu a'missinisa (Messina-Style Lamb) - lamb chops marinated in red wine/garlic/rosemary/olive oil.

    Twill be oven baked with onion, olives, capers, and carrots, and served with new potatoes tossed with ricotta cheese.

    1. you are bringing it, Bo!

      green beans were on sale for 98 cents/lb today, so I am making bihari green beans.

      word to meat: I got a pork butt today. It will get submerged in chile colorado and spices for at least overnight, maybe for 2 days, then crock-potted. Adovada4evah!

  4. How badly do the Pirates want homefield advantage for the wild card game? If they host, they'll have to travel home. If they don't, they can just stay in Cincinnati. Anybody have any idea how much of an advantage it has been to play at home in one-game playoffs? I know home teams are 2-0 when the Twins play.

  5. I took the kids for a long nature walk. It was misting when we set out, sprinkling for much of our time out, but it was a full rain the last quarter-mile and we went from damp to soaked.

  6. I don't like rain dealys, but it does give me a chance that the game will still be on when I get home. That is, if FOX still decides to show the game at all.

    1. Only one AL East making it? Would not have guessed that at the beginning of the year. Too bad the Red Sox won the division.

    2. So: Cleveland currently sits a half-game up on TEX and TBR.
      Cleveland can't end the day behind a 3-way tie.

      CLE WW TEX W TBR W = TBR@TEX tiebreaker, Cleveland hosts winner in WC game.
      CLE WW TEX W TBR L = TBR eliminated, Cleveland hosts Texas in WC game
      CLE WW TEX L TBR W = TEX eliminated, Cleveland hosts Tampa in WC game
      CLE WW TEX L TBR L = TBR@TEX tiebreaker, Cleveland hosts winner in WC game.

      CLE WL TEX W TBR W = 3-way tiebreaker
      CLE WL TEX W TBR L = TBR eliminated, Cleveland hosts Rangers in WC game.
      CLE WL TEX L TBR W = TEX eliminated, Rays host Cleveland in WC game.
      CLE WL TEX L TBR L = TBR@TEX tiebreaker, Cleveland hosts winner in WC game.

      CLE LW TEX W TBR W = 3-way tiebreaker
      CLE LW TEX W TBR L = TBR eliminated, Cleveland hosts Rangers in WC game.
      CLE LW TEX L TBR W = TEX eliminated, Rays host Cleveland in WC game.
      CLE LW TEX L TBR L = TBR@TEX tiebreaker, Cleveland hosts winner in WC game.

      CLE LL TEX W TBR W = CLE eliminated, Rangers host Rays in WC game.
      CLE LL TEX W TBR L = CLE@TBR tiebreaker, Rangers host winner in WC game.
      CLE LL TEX L TBR W = TEX@CLE tiebreaker, Rays host winner in WC game.
      CLE LL TEX L TBR L = 3-way tiebreaker

      As I type this, Twins-Cleveland is 0-0 in the third, so I'm not that far off calling each game outcome equally likely.
      Then, 7/16 chance of no tiebreaker game
      6/16 chance of one tiebreaker game
      3/16 chance of two tiebreaker games.
      Expected number of tiebreaker games: 0.75.

  7. Incidentally, all 10 teams in the playoffs will have won at least 90 games and in all likelihood, a 90 game winner will be sitting at home when the playoffs start.

  8. I just turned the game on, saw the Cole had given up his first hit, and assumed a homer would immediately follow. I hate being right.

  9. It is truly amazing how many home runs De Vries gives up. I would assume that it would even out a little, were he to get enough time in, but I also assume he probably won't get that time.

  10. 91 pitches. Does Gardy let him come out for the 6th inning so he can go for that eighth K (starter best) and ninth K (reliever best)?
    Or do we get to see more Shairon Martis?

  11. If this were Cribbage, Cleveland would have pegged 3 in the top of that inning for 2-1-3 run.
    But what if the Twins hold a four in their hand? C'mon Gardy: lay that four.

  12. Brian Dozier has had a better season than many expected him to have. He's been one of the few semi-competent batters the Twins have had this year. I think, though, that those facts tend to make us think of him as better than he actually is.

    Brian Dozier, in 2013, is 26 years old. His numbers are .245/.311/.417 for an OPS of .728
    Luis Rivas, in 2004, was 24 years old. His numbers were .256/.283/.432 for an OPS of .715.

    After the 2004 season, the Twins decided Rivas wasn't good enough and replaced him with Nick Punto in 2005. After this season, some people are acting like Dozier is an up-and-coming star. I wish he was, and I hope he is, but I don't see it. Don't get me wrong--I'm not saying Dozier's terrible. But I think the way people are seeing him is being affected by how awful the rest of the lineup is.

    1. Totally different environments they are playing in. Dozier is in his first full season as a major leaguer and has a 100 OPS+. Rivas was in his fourth full season as a major leaguer and had an 82 OPS+, and his career OPS+ at the time was 81. Also, Dozier didn't look anything like a competent major leaguer, at least offensively, until suddenly at the end of May he seemed to figure something out. From May 28 through Friday's game, he has a .799 OPS with above-average defense. If he can do something similar for a full season next year, he will be a good player. If he matches what he did this year for the full season, that's still above average for a second baseman. I'm still more excited about Arcia having an OPS+ of 102 at the age of 22.

      1. Maybe. I hope so. There's not a lot in Dozier's minor league record that suggests he'll sustain this, though. The only good offensive years he had in the minors were his first one, when he was a 22-year-old in the Appalachian League, and 2011, when he was a 24-year-old who split the season between Fort Myers and New Britain. Maybe he figured something out this year, and again, I'm not saying I think he's terrible. But I'm going to have to see more than I've seen before I think he's above average.

        I do agree with you about Arcia. Not only is he substantially younger, but he has a lot more of a record of success in the minor leagues.

      2. Dozier is in his first full season as a major leaguer and has a 100 OPS+.
        But, he's 26. I think he can be a two-plus-win player, but he's just keeping the position filled until Rosario is ready.

        1. Dozier was a four-win player this season. 26 isn't ancient. This isn't the minors. If you can hit in the majors at 26, you can hit in the majors at 27-30. His K, BB and HR/FB rates were all right around league average, which is where you would expect someone right around 100 OPS+. His line drive rate was better than average. Despite this, his BABIP was just .279, so if anything he was unlucky.

          1. As you point out, he was really only a good player the last four months of the season, and even then it's not like he was a superstar. So, the real question is whether he actually did figure something out and is going to continue to improve, or if he just had a few good months and this is as good as he's ever going to get. I'm certainly in favor of giving him a chance to prove the former, and I expect the Twins will do that. At this time next year, we'll know a lot more about what Brian Dozier is going to be.

          2. Dozier was a four-win player this season.
            According to rWAR. FanGraphs estimates this season was at 2.6 wins. The big difference is obviously defense. DRS estimates +9 runs while TZL is at -1 runs and UZR at -2 runs. That's two different data sources with two different algorithms agreeing. He looks good, but we know where that path leads to.

            26 isn’t ancient.
            Nor is it young. He could be a late-bloomer, in which case great. Or, now that he's in his prime, he's finally good enough to play in the majors. He was an eighth round draft pick, so teams didn't think he had a lot of talent.

  13. I made only two predictions in the contest this year. One: that the Twins would lose 95 games. Check. Two: this would be the last of the 90 loss seasons. Not feeling so good about that one.

    This was an epic race to the bottom. On just about any other club in the majors, the manager would be replaced after these three seasons. I think the Twins will do it, but I'm not willing to bet any money on that.

    This is an embarrassment of a season, and the month of September was all but unwatchable.

    Race to the Bottom:

    Losses Seasons
    95 *2013*
    96 2012
    97 1999
    99 2011
    102 1982
    1. Two: this would be the last of the 90 loss seasons. Not feeling so good about that one.

      It's just a natural progression. In 2011, New Britain, Rochester and the Twins were all terrible. Last year, New Britain made the playoffs. This year, Rochester made the playoffs. So, obviously, next year will be the Twins' turn.

      Back to reality, the Twins seem to have a lot of money to spend, and I would bet anything that they budgeted for a lot less attendance than they had this season, so I think they will be able to go up in payroll next year. Of course, being able and actually doing it are two different things.

        1. I here those dudes will be looking for TRBC money next year. I'm skeptical that management will be willing to acquire all three, so, I'll settle for Mariano and Zito.

          1. do you think that the twins would have a better chance to sign mo if they let him start?
            twins need starters and mo has been hidden in the pen

            they could let him play centerfield on some of his "off days"

            minnesota has good fishing and mo is a fisherman

            it makes so much sense i bet mo signs for less than hes offered elsewhere

            1. I can only imagine the amount of money any team would have to offer to make him quote/unquote "taint" his legacy like that. He can't really go out on much higher of a note. Of course, sports is littered with examples of guys hanging on too long, so maybe just maybe you're crazy enough to make sense.

              1. when i use no capitals or punctuation its because i let a little stupid and ironically naive voice in my head speak

                That voice should have mentioned that the Twins' centerfielders stink as well: Mo can't be much worse.
                The whole list was a farce: it's really all I can recall of pitchers who will be free agents next year.

      1. We'll see what happens in the off-season. If they get aggressive, they should be better. But, if they do what they did this year, well, I'm not seeing substantial improvement.

  14. A few stats (minimum 120 at-bats)

    Average: Leader, Joe Mauer, .324. Second place: Justin Morneau, .259. Team Average: .242
    On-base: Leader, Joe Mauer, .404. Second place: Josh Willingham, .342. Team Average: .313
    Slugging: Leader, Joe Mauer, .476. Second place: Oswaldo Arcia, .430. Team Average: .381
    OPS: Leader, Joe Mauer, .880. Second place: Justin Morneau, .741. Team Average: ,694.

    The problem, clearly, is Joe Mauer. He's just not a team player. The guy doesn't know how to fit in.

    And we'll just have to settle for 67-95!

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