101 thoughts on “February 12, 2014: It’s On Late, So There’s No Fighting It”

  2. So TDO lost the 1982 World Series last night in my OOTP league when Joe Morgan hit a walk-off homer in the 12th inning of Game 7. Crazy!

    In the league through 1982, Joe Morgan has 119.4 WAR, 3,216 hits, 2,237 walks, 936 steals, 312 homers, and a 138 OPS+. He has won league MVP's in 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979, and 1980. Insane.

      1. Everybody was all "Fire Joe Morgan", but now what have we got? John Kruk? Be careful what you ask for.

          1. Outside of that year he almost completely missed. He's been a ridiculous stud. The other player to go from HOF in real live to ZOMG in our league is Steve Carlton. They were consecutive 1st round picks by Denver.

            1. Walter Johnson holds the record for most 10+ win seasons post 1900 with 7. And they weren't consecutive.

              1. I was going to mention that Old Hoss Charlie Radbourn holds the record with the most 19+ win seasons with 1.
                But then I noticed (how hadn't I before? Because American Assn?) Tim Keefe's 20-WAR 1883.

                I don't really get it, though:
                Stat, Radbourne 1884, Keefe 1883
                IP, 678.2, 619
                ERA, 1.38, 2.41
                G, 75, 68
                GS (all CG), 73, 68
                SHO, 11, 5
                WHIP, 0.922, 0.963
                K, 441, 359
                BF, 2672, 2517
                ERA+, 205, 145
                ParkFactor, 96, 106
                RAA, 138, 169
                WAA, 14.3, 16.7
                RAR, 199, 208
                oWAR, 0.4, 0.3
                dWAR, -0.1, 0.0

                I brought in those last two to show that is wasn't batting or fielding separating them.

                How does a better ERA and ERA+ over more innings with more Ks end up with less WAR (and WAA and RAR and RAA)? Even if the difference is less than one WAR, I would have expected Radbourn to be well above Keefe.
                Is something funny about Replacement and Average level in the American Association?

                1. rWAR uses RA, not ERA. Radbourn had a RA9 of 2.86 in a pitchers' park. Keefe's RA9 was 3.55 in a hitters' park. Keefe's opposing teams averaged slightly more runs (5.81 vs 5.45) and crucially, it estimates an average pitcher would have had an RA9 of 4.52 in Radbourn's place while Keefe's average replacement pitcher would have had an RA9 of 5.94.

                  My guess is that average in the American Association was pretty bad compared to the NL, but the stars in the AA were still really good.

                  1. Thanks, Sean! If I understand right, that means:
                    1. Yes the AA Replacement level was funny. (Should this be corrected?)
                    2. Radbourn benefited from more errors keeping his ERA down.

                    2. Why wouldn't a replacement AA player be close to a replacement AL or NL player?
                      Perhaps they need to adjust for the AA replacement being something lower.
                      Or that AA wins above average or replacement should be discounted when being compared to AL or NL wins.

  3. Congress sucks!

    'Spoiler' SelectShow

      1. I think I've been less than clear. It wasn't this Congress that was doing this. It was the Congress in 1938.

        1. Yeah, the way I read that, some tweeted that some people in the current Congress were researching whether Shirley Temple was a communist in 1938, when she was ten years old.

          I submit that the mere fact this reading seemed plausible says a great deal about contemporary American politics.

          1. And the facts as they are says that it has probably always sucked. Which doesn't excuse the current crop o' clowns.

      2. of course, Joe wasn't in the Senate until 1947....

        He was admitted to the bar in 1935. While working in a law firm in Shawano, Wisconsin, he launched an unsuccessful campaign to become district attorney as a Democrat in 1936. In 1939, McCarthy had better success: he successfully vied for the elected post of the non-partisan 10th District circuit judge. During his years as an attorney, McCarthy made money on the side by gambling.

        ah, the good ol' days.

  4. This is for my guy davidwatts:

    The 18-34 Lakers have been taken off a nationally scheduled telecast for the third time this season, with ESPN scrapping plans for the Feb. 23 at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

    Even the almighty Lakers can be shoved off TV if they suck. TV is still with the Knicks, though.

  5. In my store I primarily meet baseball players, but yesterday I met Hersey Hawkins. Good cat. I wondered what brought him here when he never played here and he works for the Blazers, and it seems he made a short stop as an assistant high school basketball coach here. That seems like an odd, low-level job for someone that would be back with the NBA in short order.

    1. My sister was living in Peoria on a co-op job when Hersey was a senior at Bradley. He was an enormously large fish in a pretty small pond there. My sister went to Bradley games all that winter. It seemed like he went for 30 every night.

      Edit: He averaged 36+ a game his senior season and was AP college player of the year, so it seems I undersold him.

      1. I see his son is the all-time AZ high school scoring leader, so he must have passed on that sweet shot.

        Hawkins is only 6'3" and it may not have occurred to me to try to mentally place him if he hadn't been in full Blazers attire.

    1. 'Guess - kind of' SelectShow
    4. Thoughts SelectShow
      1. I Gave Up SelectShow
      1. 'Spoiler' SelectShow

      3. I actually got a note the other day from a supervisor that I had allowed that exact same error to appear in a transcript I proofed. (Nothing mean. They send out reports all the time on things like that, that are caught just for personal improvement).

      1. I don't know what pleases me more: that, or the fact that the Tigers lit $30 million on fire to get rid of him.

    2. Also from the no-doubt #1 guy on the list:

      So, let’s see. Even after a season-long 2014 suspension that takes the Yankees off the hook for almost all of his $25 million salary, Rodriguez will still make a tick more than $20 million a year through his 42nd birthday. Amid major hip problems and other maladies, it’s hard to know if he’ll ever be able to play anything close to a full season again, even after resting this year.

      The notion of A-Rod playing for the Yankees or anyone else again might be merely hypothetical at this point, anyway. Baseball colluded against Bonds after the home run king hit .276/.480/.565 in 126 games for the Giants in 2007. From a PR standpoint, A-Rod has been 10,000 times the pain in the ass Bonds was, and he’s nowhere near the hitter Bonds was when teams slammed the door in the San Francisco slugger’s face. In all likelihood, the Yankees are going to end up eating the rest of his contract. Given the expectations the fan base has, and given the big revenue hits the Bombers might suffer if they settle for third-place rosters, it would behoove the Yankees to ignore A-Rod’s sunk cost, embrace their Evil Empire reputation, and go buy more players who might one day appear on this list.

      I'm so old (or stupid, I suppose) that there was a time that I thought that A-Rod was unjustly characterized by the media. I do believe that he was scapegoated in this Biogenesis deal a little and I would not be a bit surprised if los yanquis were lobbying hard for that year plus long suspension, but good god almighty he's an a-hole. It's really terrific that the Yanks get to pay him $61 million more after this season. A better match could not have been found.

      Also, A-Rod has 654 HRs. He gets a $6 million bonus for #660. He could come back, scuffle and suck and hit six more HRs and the Yanks would have to cough up another $6 million. That would be a mighty bitter pill.

      1. Bonds' problem (I really don't think it was collusion*) was that he was a free agent.
        The Yanks have A-Rod signed for several more years.

        *The P.R. hit that just about any team would have taken in signing Bonds was pretty large. I know that the Twins couldn't have come out of signing Bonds with his net value (production minus salary) worth the fan dissatisfaction.
        In retrospect, they could have used a slugger though. But they had just traded for Del Young! But a bigger issue would be that they had finally won approval to get a Stadium built and turning around and signing a Heel like Bonds would have been grandstanded to high heaven.

            1. Almost 400,000 fewer tix sold each of the first two years post Bonds than the last year of Bonds. For several years until the end of his career, they were pretty much at 3.2 million. Those two years: 2.8 million.

              1. Year Finish Record Bonds age Bonds fWAR Bonds defense Bonds PA Bonds salary Giants payroll BB % payroll
                2004 2nd 91-71 39 11.7 -4.4 617 $18,000,000 $82,019,166 22.0
                2005 3rd 75-87 40 0.6 0.6 52 $22,000,000 $90,199,500 24.4
                2006 3rd 76-85 41 3.3 -10.2 493 $19,331,470 $90,056,419 21.5
                2007 Last 71-91 42 3.4 -14.5 477 $15,533,970 $90,219,056 17.2
                2008 4th 72-90 43 - - - - $76,594,500 0
                2009 3rd 88-74 44 - - - - $82,616,450 0
                2010 1st 92-70 45 - - - - $96,277,833 0

                Bonds injured his knee and had multiple surgeries in 2005. There's a definite trend downward for Bonds' fielding after his knee injury, and the last time he had posted a positive number for his defense before 2003 was 1998. Add to the fact that he was going to be 43 in 2008, had never played 1b and was unlikely to be willing to learn, had abused drugs (what further implications for his health?), and you can see why the Giants might not be enthusiastic about paying him another $12-15 million while likely finishing near the bottom of the NL West again in 2008. Paying $5 million per win (assuming Bonds would put up 3.0 WAR in 2008) would have been an overpay, and a risky gamble for an NL team on a 43 year old who really can't play outfield anymore.

                As for "collusion," I think AMR's on the right track.

                Sometimes, when you're a big enough asshole, you can burn even the bridge you're standing on.

                1. I've been meaning to ask if I'm the only one who can't read this...other than the synopsis at the end.

      2. He gets the $6 million at 660, 714, 755, 762, and 763. 660 is all but guaranteed to happen and there's a (small) chance he might get to 714.

      3. Are the yanks on the hook for the remainder of the contract if A-rod doesn't make another plate appearance after his suspension?

        2. In a word: yep*.

          *Unless they can figure out some way to weasel out of it, like say, getting him suspended again. That is a fully guaranteed contract.

      4. I'm so old (or stupid, I suppose) that there was a time that I thought that A-Rod was unjustly characterized by the media.

        I felt largely the same way. At at the very least he didn't go full Armstrong like Ryan Braun.

        1. Yeah. I mean, Im not shedding any tears because Yankees, but when he gets back to full health will he have anything left?

    1. I remember rooting for the Czechs in '98. And add in having lived there, they are definitely my 2nd choice team to root for in hockey this go around.

    2. It's a game from last June. They're apparently showing it because it's a game Masahiro Tanaka pitched.

    1. sweet! a whole season of Jeterbation. Will the commissioner require other teams to tank so that the Yankmees can make the World Series in his honor.

    2. Stealing thunder from Bud Selig's farewell tour...check
      Not having to play with Alex Rodriguez ever again...check

    3. Pitino opened the press conference with a very unpopular shout out to Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter who announced today that this will be his last season. "I figure nobody ever listens anyway, so let's just talk about he's won four titles, one of the best shortstops ever. So there you go. I'm a huge Yankees fan. My dog's name is Bernie, he's named after Bernie Williams. So that's another nice tidbit. We were going to go 'Jeter' but it didn't work. There's a big New York background in my family -- my uncle, who we lost in 9-11, we used to go up there every summer and go to games with my dad. He's doing it right though -- a farewell tour. That's how I would do it if I was a baseball player." Unfortunately I was not there to remind him which team has won the most championships this century.

      And I was really starting to like him as Gophers coach.

        2. The same reason announcing it on facebook rather than holding a press conference is "doing it right". It's right because Jeter did it. When God does something, you don't question whether it's the right thing. You just assume it is.

          1. Right. If Jetes would have gone to the Winter Olympics and run onstage during a medal ceremony and grabbed the mic and said, "I'm a-let you finish, but I gotta say that my baseball career is one of the best of all times and next year is my last," well then, that would be doing it right, too.

    1. That was a pretty feel-good article.

      And by 'good', I mean not bad.

      And by 'not bad', I mean, "Oh God, will it ever end?"

  17. Ricky Rubio has the offense humming early
    But then gets elbowed in the chin causing him to bleed and leave the court

    of course

    1. Wolves really taking it to the Nuggets. What the heck happened to Faried? He's been gawdawful this year.

  18. I think Ronny Turiaf is the Wolves best shot blocker since Darko patrolled the paint.

    Kind of sad.

      1. You are correct. Griffin is actually the franchise leader in Blocks per Game (1.8, KG 1.7, Darko 1.6)

  19. This is all fun now. But, when Barea comes in at the start of the fourth quarter and shoots Denver back into this game, I"m gonna be pissed.

  21. Philosofette got an iPad for Valentine's Day. Taking it out for a test drive... Yes, we're a few days early, but it's a practical gift, so why wait on the usage?

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