Game Recap #136: Last Place Team 8, First Place Team 12

Ricky, lose those numbers.

Before this year, Ricky Nolasco had spent eight seasons in the big leagues.  He had an ERA around 4.40, a WHIP around 1.3, and his ERA+ had consistently been in the mid-80s to low 90s.  In 2013, in a season split between Miami and the Dodgers, he had an ERA of 3.70, a WHIP of 1.21, and an ERA+ of 101.  He had generally thrown about 180-200 innings.  So, when the Twins signed Nolasco to a four-year contract, they had ever right to think that what they were getting was a guy who would throw close to 200 innings and be a slighly-below-average pitcher, possibly an average pitcher.

Obviously, that's not what they've gotten.  Nolasco's ERA now stands at 5.96.  His WHIP is 1.58.  His ERA plus is below 70.*  Ricky Nolasco has not been a slightly-below-average pitcher.  He's been a far-below-average pitcher.  And he's signed for three more seasons.

*I don't cite these stats because I think they're necessarily the best way to evaluate a pitcher.  I cite them because they're readily available and they're stats I suspect the Twins would look at.  And in this case, at least, I'm confident that more advanced stats would show pretty much the same thing.

I don't know why Nolasco has been terrible this year.  Various possibilities spring to mind:  he's pitching through an injury, he has a flaw in his delivery, he's simply getting older and losing his effectiveness.  But I don't know if any of those is correct.  My lack of knowledge apparently puts me even with Ron Gardenhire, Rick Anderson, and Nolasco himself.  That's not meant as a criticism, exactly.  I just assume that if any of them knew what the problem was, they'd have fixed it by now.  I also assume that they're all still trying.  After all, it's to no one's advantage (apart from the other major league teams) to have Nolasco go out there and stink it up game after game after game.

At this point, I'd be in favor of shutting Nolasco down for the season and giving his starts to Logan Darnell.  Or, if you prefer someone else from AAA, fine.  Do I think the Twins will do that?  No.  But even if they go on that season ending twenty-six game winning streak, they're probably not going to make the playoffs.  It really doesn't serve any purpose to keep sending Nolasco out there to do what he's been doing this season.  Let's find out a little about someone else.  Maybe an extra month of rest would help Nolasco come back stronger in 2015.  i don't have any great confidence of that, but it can't hurt, either.

The Twins scored six runs in the last three innings, making the final score look closer.  In the past, I've said I was encouraged by that, in that it shows that the team didn't give up.  There's still an extent to which that's true, but in this case it felt like a football team that was getting blown out scoring a couple of late touchdowns against the other team's scrubs.  There was no point at which it felt like the Twins might actually come back and win, and when Baltimore put in a good pitcher the game was quickly over.

So this afternoon, the Twins send Staff Ace Phil Hughes to the mound in an attempt to avoid a sweep.  Memory tells me they've been pretty good at that this year--I haven't checked, but it seems like, as bad as the record is, they've not been swept all that much.  So, today starts the season-ending winning streak.  We'll just have to settle for 85-77!