77 thoughts on “March 24, 2015: The Big Sleep”

  1. Under 10 games to go in the season with absolutely nothing decided about seeds or particicpants in the NHL playoffs? Yep it's time for ...

    Wild Playoff Watch: The Return of Wild Playoff Watch Edition

    Minnesota beat Toronto last night to move to 89 points, the fifth highest point total in the West. Unfortunately, it's the fourth highest point total in their division so the Wild are currently the #7 seed.

    The current playoff picture is as follows.

    CENTRAL
    StL - 97 pts
    Nsh - 96 pts
    Chi - 94 pts

    PACIFIC
    Ana - 99 pts
    Van - 88 pts
    Cgy - 86 pts

    WILDCARD
    Min - 89 pts
    Wpg - 88 pts
    --------------
    LA - 84 pts
    Dal - 80 pts
    Col - 78 pts
    SJ - 78 pts

    The Wild have 9 games left to play and have a playoff magic number of 15 (they hold tiebreaks over most teams due to one of the highest totals of non-shootout wins)

    Chicago has a magic number of 14 over MN, and Nashville has a magic number of 12.

    Games tonight

    Minnesota @ NY Islanders - 6 PM, 2nd game of a back-to-back for MN.

    Los Angeles @ NY Rangers - 6 PM, 2nd game of a back-to-back for LA.
    Montreal @ Nashville - 7 PM
    Winnepeg @ Vancouver - 9 PM, No overtime please.

    1. I think Kuemper should get the start. The Wild gave up over 30 shots to the Leafs last night. Second of back-to-back and an Eastern Conference team, so it isn't a four-point swing. The Wild are in first place in a five-team race for four playoff spots. The Dub needs to abide.

      1. I could go either way on this. Unless Dubnyk indicates he needs a night off, or if you've seen something that suggests he's wearing out, I'd let him play.

        1. I haven't been following at all, but since this is a Minnesota team it seems inevitable that Dubnyk will be played far too much and get injured around playoff time.

            1. Two thoughts.
              1. It may not be a four-point swing, but the race for a playoff spot is far from over. Over their past 10 games, the five teams in the 4th - 9th spots in the West are winning; a combined 39-15-6 in those 60 games (and none of them have lost more than 3 regulation games during that span). The 10th place team, Dallas, is 8-2-0 during that span.
              2. Couldn't you say the same (exhaustion = perform terribly) about Suter or Parise or Pommer or any of them?*

              *Caveat. I'm a fan of the game, but never played organized hockey. I have no idea how a forward or defenseman's 15-30 minutes of ice time stacks up against a goalie's 60 minutes.

              1. Everybody's winning, no doubt. And I read something today at the Globe & Mail about other teams riding one goaltender down the stretch. So, it isn't just Yeo. But the Wild have had a history of goalie carousels, as sean and ct point out above. Tea leaves.

                As for goalies versus players, there's a bunch of stories on the interwebs about goalies playing worse on the back end of back-to-backs, even if Dubnyk has done well in three of the last four.

                On the other hand, maybe you're right. Egad:

                "5. Minnesota Wild (Last Week: 5)

                To give you an idea of how bad their goaltending was pre-Devan Dubnyk, the Wild are still ranked fifth-from-last in terms of 5-on-5 save percentage despite receiving Vezina-quality goaltending for more than two months. " Link

                1. Like CoC, I'm a fan, but never played, and know very little (not meaning to attribute the "knowing very little" part to CoC too). But I feel like the "ride a hot goalie as long and as far as you can" narrative is a really common one?

    2. I find standings by points to be annoying when teams have played different numbers of games.
      I was hoping I could find something positive by changing to Win% (Points/(Games*2)).
      The only changes in the standings are that Vancouver's ahead of Minnesota because they've played one less game and have one less point, and Nashville's ahead of Anaheim for the same reason.
      But after last night's Shootout win, the Wild now are three points up on Winnipeg and have played the same number of games.
      LA is 5 points and a game behind, so they're more like 3.8 points behind
      Dallas is 11 points and a game behind, so more like 9.9 points.
      Colorado is 13 points and two games behind, so more like 10.8 points.
      San Jose is 13 points and one game behind, so more like 11.9 points.

  2. Twins sign Brian Dozier to a four-year extension. I'm not all that confident about Dozier four years from now, but it's also not such a huge deal that it should hurt them much if it goes sour.

    1. I'm not that enthused about the deal because no free agency years are covered. Most of his value was from his hitting and the arbitration process favors that so all the Twins get is cost certainty, assuming he continues to perform well. But if he continues to perform well, then his free agency years would be worthwhile to have.

      1. They could always reextend but I guess if he had two more really good years that extension will cost more then.

        1. considering that he was worth $26.2 million last season and $12.8 million in 2013 (per Fangraphs), and this contract will pay him only $2 million this year and $3 million next, that seems like a very club-friendly deal.

          1. But he's under team control for all of the years otherwise. He was originally going to be paid $590,000 this year. Next year would probably be not too far off from $3 million.

            If he continues to perform at 5 wins for the next four years, then yes they save a decent amount. But how much? He's due $6 million in 2017 and $9 million in 2018. Actual arb salaries would be, wild guesses here, $9 million in 2017 and $15 million in 2018. Great, saved $9 million but that's it. Dozier has little risk: if he collapses, he'll still get paid; if he turns into a star he can still cash in as a free agent. If he has reached his peak, then he will get close to what the arbitration process would have yielded. The Twins should have had some free agency years as options. If Dozier continues to perform well, he'll have additional value due to likely cheap option years for trading or keeping.

          2. Since the contract doesn't buy out any free agency years, what he would make on the open market isn't the true comparison. The Twins already had him signed for $590,000, so it already is costing the Twins an extra $1.41M for this season. It also guarantees all his arb eligible years, meaning if something happens to prevent him from playing in multiple seasons, the Twins are stuck paying him regardless. Mainly, it just gives the Twins cost certainty so they wouldn't be paying him a huge amount if he goes off and has a big season. However, if he regresses a lot, then the Twins are stuck paying him even if they end being forced to release him. I'd like this a lot better if it had bought out some free agency years and gave the Twins some added player control.

            1. Yea, I understand that the CBA allows clubs to extract wealth from young players with below-free-market salaries throughout their indentured servitudes. I also understand that, as Fangraphs' article puts it, "Arbitration panels are notoriously old school, and tend to make their decisions based on player comparisons and traditional statistics like RBIs and Wins."

              That, of course, does not mean it will always be so, nor does it obviate the fact that the contract is very club-friendly in an objective sense. Is giving him an extra $1.4 million this year and paying him $3 million next year really in line with what the club could have expected to pay over the two seasons via arbitration (i.e, the controlled $590K this year and whatever arbitration pressures produced for next)?

              Consider that Pedro Alvarez made $4.25 million last year in his first season of arb eligibility and the figures exchanged this year are both above $5 million (settled at $5.75M). Dozier has been more valuable in each of the last two seasons.

              Or Brandon Belt: the competing numbers filed are $3M and $4.5M (I'm looking at MLB Trade Rumors' Arb Tracker for 2014-15), settled at $3.6M
              Gregor Blanco: $3.3M and $4M, got a 2-year extension for $3.66M and $3.9M
              Brandon Crawford ($2.4, $3.95, settled at the midpoint of $3.175M)
              Alejandro de Aza ($5M, $5.6M, settled at $5M)
              Josh Donaldson ($4.3M, $5.75M, settled at $4.3M)

              etc.

              Yes, some of those guys were in their second or later arb years. My point is that there are comps out there, and Dozier seems to have taken a small up-front bonus in return for a below-expectations guarantee for next year and the following two.

              1. Yes but Dozier is older than most players who have only been in the majors for two years. There is some major Blackburn potential here.

                1. De Aza was in his age-29 year in his first arb year. Alvarez was in his age-27 year. Donaldson is in his age-29 season (first year of arb eligibility isn't actually until next season). Belt age-27 in his first arb-eligible season.

                  Dozier will be in his age-28 year this year, so age-29 in his first arb-eligible season. A little on the old side, I suppose. And I suppose I agree on the Blackburn potential, but that's true of every young player, no? Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

              1. The bacon-and-switch play is how I got NBBW to try brussels sprouts - now she is hooked.

                My favorites are the bags of little ones you can get at Dean and Deluca (in Manhattan @ 560 Broadway). Sometimes Whole Foods has them - I think seasonally.

  3. Fantasy baseball note - keepers were due last week. I haven't finalized them yet, so if you haven't decided on them yet, send me an email with them (robzk yahoo) and I can enter them. If I don't get a team's keepers by the time I actually get around to verifying them, I'll probably just take a guess at the best ones and go with that.

    1. Can you put up the link to the keepers on more time? Sorry about not getting back in time. Will try to have this to you by the end of the day.

        1. Me too. It would be best to let me make my own wrong-headed keeper decisions. I'll get on it.

  4. I haven't had a chance to read it, but I wanted to share that as part of his new Baseball Prospectus gig, Trueblood will occassionally (monthly?) have a piece featured at Fox Sport's Baseball site. Here's his first official one. And here's one they just decided to pick up yesterday because I guess they liked it. And here's one where Rob Neyer decides to use his thoughts as a springboard.

    //end promoting my brother-in-law for a reasonable amount of time.

      1. Likewise. He's very quickly shot to the top few spots in my list when it comes to interesting, thoughtful baseball writing. He delves into what could be a dry slog through stats and turns it into something fresh and thought-provoking. There are not enough sportswriters like that.

        1. "the ceiling on pitchers with his fastball profile has naked people painted on it." LOL.

  5. Cory and Dazzle are talking about how Molitor and Terry Ryan are emphasizing relievers being able to go more than one inning this year.

    1. Not to come out in favor of profanity, but I think I would be upset if I wrote something and then someone changed it without my permission, even when it's done in this way.

      1. And if I buy a CD and want to make a copy for my kids to listen to without three songs I find inappropriate for their ages, I'd prefer to be able to.
        Or if I want to take audacity and bleep out or reverse a few words. Or take the rape* scene out of that recent remake of Sense & Sensibility.
        *Or was it just a sex scene with a minor (which wouldn't have necessarily been considered rape)?

  6. On Sunday I thought my car was sounding a little strange. First thing Monday morning when I started it, the muffler was roaring.
    I pulled out of the garage, headed down the driveway, and drove down the street, getting mean glances from people on the sideways (#fix_ur_ghettocar_in_our_nice_neighborhood).

    Got it repaired the same day (north of 5 hondo clams) - muffler was fine but the 'middle-pipe' had rusted out.

      1. I'm fixin' to fix my sway bar on Thursday. If I'm able to get pictures, I'll make a post.

  7. My Proteas heroes fell to the Kiwis this morning in World Cup Cricket.

    New Zealand needed twelve runs in the last over... and delivered. Six on the penultimate ball. Classic match.

    Now it's the winner of Aussies vs. India, and New Zealand.

    1. Agreed on both counts. Loved how the tv broadcast team had no idea what really happened on either wild goal.

  8. My employer fired one of my best friendworkers today. This institution has fired a small handful of people in its 50 plus years of existence, and this one was boneheaded beyond belief. The former head of my department was released because he screamed at colleagues, intimidated visitors, bullied his subordinates, and was inept. The records manager we hired two years ago was crazy, stole from the institution, fabricated sexual harassment charges, and threatened to beat a colleague in the street. The maintenance dude they fired a decade ago was just a fuck up. My friend refused a promotion a week ago on the grounds that she'd be required to add 35% job duties and would supervise another worker for an additional grand a year. She refused the promotion because she saw it as a moral issue. She didn't want to allow the institution to create a position that they could extract maximum effort from while spending minimal capitol. She was in the lowest paid bracket in the institution to start, and with that crazy huge raise would still have been in the lowest paid bracket of all employes. She was offered an ultimatum, sign the pre-prepared letter of resignation and receive two weeks pay, or be terminated with no pay out of vacation. I'm sick about the whole thing. She was a tremendous asset to the organization, and a great person, but she took a stand and was fired. Ugh.

      1. Isn't LA a "right to work" state? My impression was that in such states, fired employees have little recourse.

        1. I was thinking that termination without cause would change the equation, but that'd take more research than I have time for this morning.

          1. Wrongful termination in LA

            In Louisiana, as in other states, employees work at will. This means an employee can generally be fired at any time and for any reason, or for no reason at all.

            But there are some exceptions to the at-will rule. If your Louisiana employer fires you for discriminatory reasons, in violation of an employment contract, or in retaliation for exercising your rights, for example, you may have a legal claim against your employer for wrongful termination.

            Every state’s laws on wrongful termination are different. This article covers some of the legal grounds you might have for suing your employer in Louisiana for wrongful termination.

            I suppose there might be a case in there, but from meat's description, it doesn't sound like it would be an easy one, since she would bear the burden of proof in a state that doesn't exactly bend over backwards to favor workers.

            1. Yeah, there's almost never an "easy" case to be made alleging wrongful termination. Even the most egregious cases are generally more expensive to pursue than they're worth in terms of severance or settlement/damages.

              [edit] and what Philosofer said.

      1. Nope. She's in a different department. St. Pat is still employed although he is massively inept bordering on malicious.

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