2015 Twins Game Logs

game 48: blue jays @ twins

54 Comments

Today, we've got a sub 4 (Aaron Sanchez, 4-4 3.98 ERA) and a sub 3 (Kyle Gibson, 4-3, 2.72 ERA) going at it. Pitcher's duel, right?

...eh

Both of today's pitchers are vastly overperforming versus where you would expect them. Luckily for the home team, the Blue Jays starter appears to be completely buoyed by the fact that when opposing hitters make contact, it's finding his fielders' gloves. His walk rate is an absurd 5.9 per 9. He's a top 50 prospect, but control has been a problem with him throughtout his journey to the majors, so let's keep a watchful eye, batters.

As for Kyle Gibson? He's not been letting many hit him hard, but he's definitely letting them hit it. He's been sneaking out of things (thus the 10th best ERA and all), but with a K/9 under 5, I have to imagine a Blackburnian future for him.

My prediction? 6-4 Twins win. Twins batters bolster their walk rate a little (they are really, really bad at taking walks) and Gibson gets lucky enough to grab the 'W'.

Time for Twins on leaderboards!
All rankings are AL

Hitting
WAR (position players) - Plouffe - 2.1 (9th)*Offensive WAR - Plouffe - 1.7 (8th)*
Runs Scored - Dozier - 38 (2nd)
Total Bases - Dozier - 90 (8th)
Doubles - Dozier - 14 (t-4th)
Triples - Santana - 3 (t-3rd)
Extra Base Hits - Dozier - 25 (t-2nd)
Sacrifices - Santana - 3 (t-6th)
Sacrifice Flies - Dozier - 3 (t-5th)
Intentional Walks - Arcia - 3 (t-4th)
Intentional Walks - Mauer - 3 (t-4th)
Double Plays - Mauer - 9 (t-1st)**
Caught Stealing - Schafer - 3 (t-9th)
Caught Stealing - Santana - 3 (t-9th)

* Plouffe has been keeping up his gaudy stats from last year quite nicely. I figured he was a candidate for regression. Glad to see him proving me wrong (in fairness, he's 27th on Fangraphs' same chart).

** 🙁

Pitching
Pitching rWAR - Gibson - 1.9 (7th)*
Pitching rWAR - Pelfrey - 1.6 (10th)*
ERA - Gibson - 2.72 (10th)
Wins - Nolasco - 5 (t-7th)**
Winning Percentage - Nolasco - .833 (t-3rd)**
Winning Percentage - Pelfrey - .800 (t-5th)
BB/9 - Hughes - 0.84 (2nd)***
BB/9 - May - 1.63 (7th)
Games Played - Thompson - 25 (t-1st)
Games Played - Perkins - 24 (t-3rd)
Games Played - Boyer - 23 (t-6th)
Saves - Perkins - 18 (1st)
Games Started - Hughes - 10 (t-6th)
Complete games - Hughes - 1 (t-6th)
Home Runs Allowed - Hughes - 12 (t-2nd)
Hits Allowed - Hughes - 75 (1st)
K/BB - Hughes - 6.83 (3rd)
K/BB - May - 4.56 (10th)
HR/9 - Pelfrey - 0.52 (t-8th)
Earned Runs - Hughes - 33 (t-9th)
Hit By Pitch - Pelfrey - 7 (t-1st)
Hit By Pitch - Gibson - 4 (t-7th)
Games Finished - Perkins - 22 (1st)
ERA+ - Gibson - 152 (10th)
FIP - May - 3.11 (10th)

* 42nd and 43rd in fWAR, respectively (Trevor May is tops on the staff at 17th, oddly enough)

** lolwins

*** I sort of wonder if Hughes isn't falling at least a little bit victim to Carlos Silva disorder (batters know he won't walk them, so they know they'll get a pitch to hit somewhere in there). He's better than Silva, but he's getting hit around a lot.

54 thoughts on “game 48: blue jays @ twins”

  1. Innings 1-3: 288/337/455 107 Runs
    Innings 4-6: 254/300/366 65 Runs
    Innings 7-9: 220/279/316 40 Runs

    That's an insanely sharp drop in production. However, good news if they can make it to extras!

    241/371/552

  6. Twins batters don't draw the walks, but Twins pitchers aren't giving them up either. Seems a little hypocritical.

    I think Gibson is a bit better on the ground balls than Blackburn was.

    1. I think you're right about Blackburn. I also think that a k/9 rate of under 5 will end in disaster, no matter how many ground balls Gibson gives up.

  17. I haven't been able to watch much, but from the radio version, we sure don't seem to have gotten any calls in this series.

    1. Hosers are questioning about the throw there to 2B... Take off to the Great White North.

  21. I know it's shooting fish in a barrel, but I thought Bremer was about to say something intelligent.

    "I remember George Bell winning the MVP in 87 because despite his good numbers I believed that someone else was better that year."

    Trammel?

    "Kirby Puckett."

    1. Not a crazy statement. Unfortunately, Bremer forgot there were a number of players better than both.

  27. I heard Atteberry say Perkins was unavailable today but didn't hear why. What's up?

    1. Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino
      Perkins was given a day after pregame catch. "Just didn't feel very live," Molitor said. No injury.

      1. Hope that's all it is. The Twins' history of diagnosing injuries leaves me a little worried. I guess time will tell.

        1. I wonder if Perk said something, or if the staff picked up on something.

            1. If there was nothing wrong with him, I'd have sent him back out there, too. But if he says he's not right, well, he knows how he feels better than anyone else does.

  28. Ah man, I missed a whole game? My time was spent swearing and taking more time to do a job than would have required.

    I'm surprised to see Plouffe on your WAR leaderboard there, and the only reason I'm surprised is that it wasn't Dozier. I thought he was pretty much mashing so far this year. (And I see that he pretty much is with a 1.5 oWAR.)

  30. Phil Miller ‏@MillerStrib

    10 of B Dozier's last 11 hits are extra bases - 4 dbls, 1 tpl, 5 HRs. BA just .220 in that time, but SLG .640. Hasn't singled since May 17.

    1. Some luck finally for Dozier on that triple. Since May 17 (not including this game), Dozier is batting .184 and slugging .526. His BABIP is .200 in that stretch, so he could use some more luck.

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