33 thoughts on “June 10, 2016: Draft”

  1. “The period now has an emotional charge and has become an emoticon of sorts”

    From an interesting article, which is perhaps a bit too cute for its own good.

    My own take: it's all about context. Sure, in some contexts periods are superfluous and can carry meaning ("fine." in a text) that they don't carry in other contexts. But non-texting/Twitter/whatever situations, they're not going anywhere.

    1. perhaps a bit too cute for its own good

      Heh, yeah. The purposeful avoidance feels really on the nose.

      Also, periods are not disappearing, what sort of nonsense is this? I don't notice IM speak and twitter speak infiltrating my corporate inbox much. Even if they did, I wouldn't expect them to eliminate the very foundation of punctuation.

          1. in some contexts periods are superfluous and can carry meaning

            emoticon of tongue sticking out

      1. Just wait until those darned millennials start filling your corporate inbox!!!!*

        *millennials I work with use proper punctuation, but aren't we supposed to blame them for everything?

        1. I once had a manager that was not very strong with English, who wrote his email like a texting teen. It was not a good combination.

        2. I just had to explain to an intern that when you're calling long-distance on a land line, you have to dial 1 before the area code. She had no idea.

        1. Does anyone have Spooky's number? I will order this over the phone through him if it helps his numbers.

  2. For funsies, MLB notes from the Twins' 4 picks yesterday:

    Kirilloff, Alex: OF - Pick 15: A product of the Southwest Pennsylvania high school ranks, Kirilloff put himself firmly on the map with a fine showing on the summer showcase circuit. With the weather warming up and scouts running in to see him, he has the chance to be the highest-drafted Pittsburgh area prepster since Neil Walker went in the first round in 2003. Teams interested in Kirilloff will be buying the bat. While there is a little length to his swing, he's shown the ability to barrel the ball consistently and has considerable raw power, which he put to use while winning the Perfect Game All-American Classic home run derby over the summer. He's more athletic than one would think given his size and plays center field for his high school team. He'll have to move to a corner spot at the next level, but moves more than well enough to stay there. He has a strong arm, one that fires 87-90 mph fastballs from the mound. For him be an everyday corner outfielder, Kirilloff will have to fit the offensive profile. The team that takes him, perhaps as early as the middle of the first round, believes the Liberty University commit will do just that.

    Rortvedt, Ben: C - Pick 56: Only six Wisconsin high schoolers were selected in the top two rounds of the first 51 Drafts, but the Badger State may have two this year in shortstop Gavin Lux and Rortvedt. The latter is the best offensive catcher in the 2016 prep ranks and could be the first high school backstop picked in June. Rortvedt has a smooth left-handed swing that generates a lot of bat speed. He's strong and barrels a lot of balls, producing power without swinging for the fences. He has the upside of a .270 hitter with 20 homers per season, though the demands of catching may knock those numbers down. Rortvedt has work to do behind the plate, though he has the tools to make it at catcher and scouts believe he'll figure it out. The Arkansas recruit has solid arm strength and makes accurate throws. He sets a good target and moves well behind the plate, though his receiving and blocking skills will have to improve.

    Miranda, Jose: SS - Pick 73: (no notes)

    Baddoo, Akil: OF - Pick 74: The Georgia high school ranks have produced 13 outfielders selected in the first two rounds in the six previous Drafts this decade, and Baddoo could add to that number in 2016. The Kentucky recruit has an intriguing power/speed combination and has improved in both departments over the last year. Baddoo has made strides with his bat as well and has the potential to hit for both power and average. He has a loose, whippy left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed. Add in his plus speed, and he has the upside of a 20-20 player if everything comes together. Baddoo's quickness stands out more than his instincts in center field, so he could wind up on an outfield corner. With his below-average arm, that would mean shifting to left field, though scouts who like him think he'd still provide enough offense to profile there.

    1. Chargois is the fifth* Twins player from the 2012 draft to make it to MLB. He was drafted with a compensation pick from the Rockies signing Cuddyer.

      Looking through the drafts, no one from the 2011 draft has made it to the majors. One of the Twins' picks didn't sign with them but did with the Cardinals the next year and he's with the Marlins now. Looking back farther and it looks like five players is the highest of the recent drafts.

      1. 2012 was the first draft after the Twins started their run of losing seasons. So at least they are having some success taking advantage of a good draft position.

          1. Well, objectively speaking, the #1 pick is worth about 4 times the #30 pick. I mean, a top-5 pick, you're looking at maybe 12 wins on average. 21-25 is more like 4 wins. 26-30 is closer to 3 wins.

            And even just in terms of reaching the majors, you have an 80%+ chance of a top-5 pick making the majors versus a 50-60% chance of a 21-30th pick making the majors.

      2. 2006 had seven players make the majors and they contributed -1.2 rWAR to the Twins.

        1. Of all the players drafted in the first round in 2006, Parmelee has the 18th-most rWAR and was drafted 20th. If you expand this to other years:

          2007: Revere was drafted 28th, has the 7th-best rWAR of the first round*
          2006: Parmelee was drafted 20th, has the 18th-best rWAR of the first round
          2005: Garza was drafted 25th, has the 10th-best rWAR of the first round
          2004: Perkins was drafted 22nd, has the 7th-best rWAR of the first round
          2004: Plouffe was drafted 20th, has the 8th-best rWAR of the first round
          2004: Waldrop was drafted 25th, has the 19th-best rWAR of the first round
          2003: Moses was drafted 21st, has the 19th-best rWAR of the first round**
          2002: Span was drafted 20th, has the 4th-best rWAR of the first round
          2001: Controversy! Mauer was drafted 1st, has the 2nd-best rWAR of the first round***

          Hicks feels like a bust given that in 2008 he was the highest pick the Twins had in a while (14th pick, but 15th-best rWAR of the first round), but he's also still 26, so that draft and more recent drafts seem a bit too early to really call, as the ratings would be skewed towards college guys who have already had some prime seasons.

          At any rate, at least from the standpoint of the first round, I think it's really hard to make a case that the Twins were actually bad at drafting, and I feel like I've even made the case that they were above-average at drafting out of the first round. It's just really hard to find star talent when you're drafting in the last 10-11 picks of the first round. You can find some MLB regulars, but you essentially have to be lucky to find stars otherwise.

          *And this pick was completely slammed at the time

          **Only 18 players with positive rWAR from the first round of that draft, 4 players with negative rWAR, 8 players that didn't play in the majors.

          ***Mauer has 49.5 rWAR to Teixeira's 51.8 rWAR. David Wright was in the supplemental round and has 50.0 rWAR. Prior is 4th from that year with 16.5 rWAR.

          1. Just for comparison sake (since it's a local example for me), let's look at the Mariners from 2001-2007:

            2001: No first-round pick
            2002: John Mayberry was the 28th pick, had the 18th-best rWAR (0.7 rWAR)
            2003: No first-round pick
            2004: No first-round pick
            2005: Jeff Clement was the 3rd pick, had the 25th-best rWAR (-1.2 rWAR)
            2006: Brandon Morrow was the 5th pick, had the 7th-best rWAR (8.1 rWAR)
            2007: Phillippe Aumont was the 11th pick, had the 20th-best rWAR (-0.6 rWAR)

            That's what bad drafting looks like (in addition to short-sighted thinking throwing away so many draft picks for free agent signings.)

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