51 thoughts on “January 18, 2017: No Words”

  1. I am now worried that the federal Department of Education in the Trump administration will not adhere to longstanding policy that Bears Are Cool.

  2. Philosofette has her quarterly observation for her first year of teaching tomorrow. It is in her worst behaved class. So of course our children haven't been sleeping this week, and I have my busiest week at work since opening my doors. On top of that, yesterday Aristotle was sick, my father-in-law got very sick overnight, Heidegger slept about 3 hours total last night, all while being held, and as I was putting coats on the kids to take them there, daycare called and said she was sick too. So... my brother-in-law is watching 3 kids until I can get away around lunchtime, I'm going to try to shift some things around for the afternoon, and... we'll just hope Philosofette can get the time and space she needs to put together the lesson plan for her observation. It doesn't sound quite as hectic as it all feels when I type it out...

  3. In case you were wondering, the BBWAA's website design has not changed since at least 17 Nov 2011.

  4. Sounds like a Rubio trade is on the table again, which bums me out as a fan. I have only been able to watch bits and pieces of games so I could be way off, but it seems like he's really responding to little tweaks to Thibs' system that cater more to his strengths. Early in the season, he'd end up standing in a corner during offensive sets and that doesn't benefit anyone but the other team.

    I see Dunn's minutes continue to get cut, so is he really ready to take over the point?

    1. I always take Rubio trade rumors as a Dan Fegan sized grain of salt. I mean, I just can't understand why some think that Rubio couldn't be a part of the young core of this team when he's only 26 and its really, really obvious the team plays better when he's involved.

      As for Dunn, ugh, he's terrrrrible from what I've seen. He does the thing Rubio does poorly (shooting, and Dunn is probably way worse at it) but none of the things Rubio does well.

      1. From what I've read/heard, Dunn's on-the-ball defense is better than Rubio's but that might be it. Has to be some concern about his potential, right? I would expect a 4-year college player drafted #5 overall to be more NBA-ready than he's shown.

        1. IIRC, Dunn's defense and speed were cited as his best strengths predraft. The real question is why doesn't Tyus Jones get more playing time? His PER is slightly better than Rubio's and way better than Dunn's. Jones has improved pretty much across the board in his stats from last year, at least the rate states.

        2. The Wolves were hanging tough against the Spurs last night. Dunn comes up and the whole this turns into a turnover dumpster fire. It would help Dunn's case is he was a better shooter than Ricky (at least Ricky hits the rim on his missed shots. Dunn nicks the side of the backboard!)

    2. News that Chris Paul has surgery and is out for 2 months and then 20 minutes late Ricky Rubio trade rumors start up again. HMMMMMMMM.

      Someone is pushing this Rubio stuff to Woj, but who and why?

      1. Clippers already have Raymond Felton and Doc Junior, so why would they want to add a third PG?

  5. In case you're not a regular Fangraphs visitor or RSS subscriber, you might enjoy What Would a Modern Tim Raines Look Like?, posted today by Dave Cameron. I wish he'd gone the extra mile and provided an approximation of a 2016 stat line based on his Peak Raines profile, but it's still an interesting read.

    1. Thanks for the link. I love thinking about him in those terms. It's awesome that Carter/Dawson/Raines will all be in as Expos. It would be nice if Carter were alive to see it.

      I wonder if Vlad will go in as an Expo when he makes it. He played more years there, but his MVP was with the Angels.

  6. Trey finally got to play a game yesterday after having not being able to since before Christmas break. He went 0-for-3, but he had an RBI groundout to drive in the go-ahead run and had a couple assists at shortstop, including one on a nice adjustment on a bad hop to end an inning and strand a runner at third as his team won 8-5. He's got a makeup game scheduled for this afternoon, but we've got another series of storms coming in tonight. It looks like it will hold off until after the game, hopefully.

      1. The part of me that's okay with Hoffman not getting in right away is in conflict with the part of me that thinks "first ballot HoFer" is a contrived bit of gatekeeper nonsense.

        That said, I don't think Hoffman is the best reliever on the ballot, and I'm pretty dubious of his case by career merit.

        1. I think it helps things to get more players in the hall and off the ballot.
          If they're going to get in eventually (and at 5 votes short, he is), get it done now.

          1. Notable additions to next year's ballot:
            Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen, Johan Santana, Johnny Damon, Jamie Moyer.
            Chipper and Ji

            1. Jim Thome are going to go in first-ballot, right?
              I think Rolen will eventually.
              I don't know what I think about Andruw and Omar's chances.

              1. I'm a bit pessimistic about Rolen's chances. Much of his value came from his glove, which I worry will remain undervalued. Rolen generated a season or two's worth of oWAR less than Ken Boyer during his career (50.2 to 55.7), but nearly doubled Boyer's considerable dWAR (20.6 to 10.6). Rolen did win 9 Gold Gloves to Boyer's 5, so perhaps that can help illustrate how good he was at the hot corner.

                Then again, Boyer won an MVP and finished in the top ten three other times; Rolen only finished in the top ten once and never won the award. Third basemen just never do well with the voters.

              2. on Andruw, 62.8 rWAR, 10th all-time CFer on JAWS (19 are in the HOF). Led the NL in Total Zone Runs seven consecutive years. 20th all-time in defensive WAR. 10 consecutive Fielding Grammies. Career OPS+ of 111.

                Is he a "first-ballot HOFer"? I dunno. Is he deserving? Hells, yes.

                Vizquel's case is all defensive, since he was a lousy hitter in an era that had some very good offensive SSs. I don't see it.

              3. Johan is the Sandy Koufax of (many of) our generation. They have very comparable career merit. Unlike Koufax, he won't be inducted. His best years were in Minnesota during the greatest offensive era since Babe Ruth played, he doesn't have the intangibles narrative, and (yes) our generation's baseball writers don't yet have voting privileges.

                1. But Koufax ended on a high note from injury while Johan had the normal career arc. Same thing with Puckett.

                    1. Depending on how you feel about pitchers winning the MVP award, Johan's 7.5 rWAR led all AL players in 2006. His 8.7 rWAR was second-highest in 2004 (Ichiro was at 9.1). He didn't finish in the top five for MVP votes either season.

                  1. A "normal career arc" would include some kind of gradual tapering off & counting stat-padding over a couple seasons for a star as established as Johan. Instead, he missed all of 2011 rehabbing from surgery to repair a torn capsule in his throwing arm, came back for 29 starts in 2012, tore the capsule again mid-season, and never made another start in the majors after August 17th. He was 33 when he threw his last pitch. Koufax retired at 30. Koufax began his streak of 150+ IP seasons at 22, while Johan didn't begin his own 150+IP streak until he was 24.

                    I get what you're saying – Koufax left the game after his second-best season, while Johan's best are clustered in the middle. They feel different. But the career performances are incredibly similar.

                    1. I knew using "normal" wasn't a great fit but Santana still had the improvement and decline*.

                      The two are similar by rWAR. Switch to fWAR and Koufax improves a bit to 54 fWAR but Santana drops to 45 fWAR.

                      * Come to think of it, this reminds me of Mauer now. Whereas Santana's injury prevented him from playing at all, something common to pitchers, Mauer's injury allowed him to continue playing but as a shell of himself. Santana doesn't end like Koufax so he's going to miss the Hall. Mauer's peak wasn't otherworldly so he's going to miss it too now.

                2. Johan compares pretty well with Koufax if you adjust for how pitchers were used (or abused) in each era. Johan actually has a better career ERA+ (136 to 131). Koufax' final 6 years, of course, is why he's in the HOF. Take Johan's best 6 year stretch starting with his first Cy Young season, and he's still very comparable to Koufax in ERA+ (Koufax 156, Johan 154). Koufax led the NL in ERA+ just twice (since his numbers had to be adjusted for Dodger Stadium). He also led the league in innings twice and in WHIP 4 times. Johan led the league in ERA+ 3 times, in innings pitched twice and in WHIP 4 times. If you decide to look at all the seasons they both surpassed 150 innings pitched, Johan comes out ahead with a 150 ERA+ compared to Koufax' 135.

                  1. Koufax also led the NL in FIP in each of those last 6 seasons. Johan led the AL 3 times, but had only one other top-10 finish in either league. Johan had 3 top-5 WPA seasons and 2 more top-10. Koufax led the NL in WPA four consecutive seasons, plus a 3rd and a 10th. Those top-line numbers for Koufax really were better.

    1. Edgar up 15% (!)
      Bonds, Clemens, and Mussina up about 9%.
      Larry Walker up 6%.
      Crime Dog up 1%.
      Lee Smith and Jeff Kent no change.
      Schilling dropped 7%.

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