22 thoughts on “September 22, 2017: Teenager”

          1. I had to look it up.
            The Cards are 1.5 games ahead of the Twins and have a 1.3% chance at the NLC title and a 21.2% chance of the second NL wild card. (I assume: their tragic number for the first NL WC is 3... one less than the Twins').

    1. Short Answer: No.

      Fangraphs has the following probabilities for the last WC spot:
      MIN 73.3%
      LAA 14.7%
      KCR 5.8%
      TEX 5.4%
      TBR 0.4%
      SEA 0.3%
      BAL 0.1%

      So the Twins are about 3x as likely than not to win the second Wild Card.
      And the Angels are about 3x as likely than the Rangers or Royals to win it. (But only 1.5x as likely than not, as Rangers and Royals about equal.)

      1. Yankees could clinch a playoff berth tonight with a win and losses by the Rangers and Angels.
        They could guarantee a 163rd game with either a win or losses by both the Rangers and Angels.

      2. How are the Angels so far ahead of the Rangers? They are tied and neither of them play the Twins. If anything, the Rangers should be ahead of the Angels because of 7 games with the A's and their final 7 games at home. At least their other 3 games are against the Astros.

        1. Fangraphs projects them to finish the same the rest of the year, but also projects different RA for them. If you look at the postseason projections, the Angels are 0.8 wins ahead of the Rangers. Small difference, but huge impact on postseason probability this late in the year.

          If you flip to the coin flip tab, then the Rangers have slightly higher odds, but they are very similar: 10.3% vs 9.6%. The season to date tab also gives an edge to the Rangers. It comes down to, which team is better right now? Projections tend to be right so that's what's used and they like the Angels 0.8 wins more.

  1. So I'm at work in a meeting and I get a text from my wireless carrier saying Elder Daughter's phone had racked up $100 in international data charges (because Google maps in Vancouver). How does one not know at the age of 24 that Canada is a different country?

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