Day 16 of pneumonia is today, unless I woke up without it.
It sucks.
53 thoughts on “November 10, 2017: Pneumonia”
I've noticed that the Twins have significantly fewer players in winter ball this year than in years past. I don't know if that's a trend throughout baseball, if it's a change in organizational philosophy, or if it's just the way it happened to work out this year. I don't know what it means or if it means anything. I just find it interesting.
a. Pretty sure that depression IS a disease
b. the fuzz on that was like fingernails on a chalk board
a. Tell it to the millipedes, Mr. Literal.
b. It's lovely when you get to the "guitar solo" at 3:44.
There's a cleaned-up remix which takes out the fuzz and quantizes a lot of it. Maybe a decent gateway to the better original?
Continuing from yesterday, I've also found twitchy, jejune, wahoo, and the half-bakef yeahneneither. Also found light, but not lightrail
Nice to see that ESPN has finally realized, in their offseason preview, that the Twins made the playoffs. And that what it means for the team is that they should give up on 2018 and try to get some pitching prospects.
Same odds of winning the 2018 World Series as the Royals (80 to 1). I'd argue that obviously the odds for both teams are pretty low, but they have the Tigers at 300 to 1, so they are clearly delineating it to some degree, and the conclusion they came to is that the up and coming Twins have the same shot as the team that went 80-82 and is losing at LEAST two of their three core players.
And same odds as the White Sox, for that matter.
They're assuming the Twins will face the Yankees at some point in the postseason so it makes sense about the long odds.
At least they're consistent. For the Yankees's playoff odds they don't say "6:1" or "80:1" or anything like that. It's just "1".
I am looking at another 40.5 of healthy life expectancy, and 43-44 years overall. I'd say that is pretty damned good for a 54-year old. Would be nice to have that life expectancy bracketed by a confidence interval.
Well, nice to know that losing 20 lbs won't make any difference...
Apparently, I could drink more and not lose any years off my life.
#winning
48.5. I get really burned by BMI, which does not appreciate my body type ("Flabulous!").
I'd have to lose 50 pounds before it adds a year and even then they tell me I've got to watch it. Alternatively I could grow 6". Or jump up an income level. Who knew BMI discriminated based on wealth?
BMI doesn't discriminate based on wealth, life expectancy does.
Was joak.
There’s more than a little research to suggest that BMI & socio-economic status are inversely related, however.
BMI only really makes sense on the population level, not the individual level. According to BMI, I am overweight even though I have a waist size of 32” at 5’11” tall and fit in the same pants I wore 35 pounds ago (though my shoulders don’t fit my old shirts.)
There’s just something perverse to me about a culture that spends so much time in reverence of athletes placing value in a metric that deems Joe Mauer overweight.
I had a coworker that outweighed me by 40 pounds but probably had a lower body fat percentage than me. He had more expensive life insurance due to BMI.
Right, because the insurance company only cares that the risk is pooled accurately, not that individuals are charged fairly.
of course, in equilibrium, the individuals are charged "fairly" in order to construct and maintain the risk pool accurately. If you are not being charged your actuarially expected costs, you are either incentivized to leave (because the expected value of the insurance is less than what you are paying) or you are going to tend to bankrupt the fund.
Excuse me if a chuckle a bit at the idea of a random person on the street really being able to accurately assess the expected value of their life insurance policy. Plus, barriers to entry, etc.
they don't have to. That's how markets work. Competing insurers will poach cheaper customers with lower rates to the degree that risk differences are predictable/can be modeled. If the insurer is systematically under-pricing policies, they will suffer from adverse selection and lose money.
you have to make arguments about insurers exercising market power to systematically "screw" consumers in a way that does not open up exit opportunities. I agree that collusion amongst major insurers is a real threat. But there are a zillion providers of term life.
I should probably have added that I am, in general, on the side of "eff insurance companies," despite my panglossian comments above.
But there are a zillion providers of term life.
Due to the competition, I doubt there is a much of a margin in term insurance. Using the BMI isn't perfect but more advanced health statistics are probably too expensive to be worthwhile.
I've had more than one insurance in the past which required a blood sample.
Mine indicated a 5% difference in live expectancy improvement between getting more hours of sleep and lowering my BMI. My only question is whether getting better sleep will result in an appreciable net difference in my waking hours during the remaining years of my life.
Only if you're currently awake for more than 20 hours/day. Otherwise, you're losing awake time.
Three thoughts, two somewhat silly.
1. Not if my (lack of) success at finding Porcinis continues.
2. Unless I kill myself first. (edit: kill myself... with mushrooms. I'm not hinting suicide here.)
3. This is good: "the antioxidants in the mushrooms appear heat-stable" as eating anything more than very small quantities of raw mushrooms can be very hard for a human digestive system to break down.
That sleep range is pretty wide in the 5-8 range.
I would think not asking about family health history would introduce a pretty huge grain of salt in these projections.
If anyone's read John Hodgman's chapter on Actuarial Tattoos in What Will Happen in the Future, you may know why I'm not going to follow that link.
I haven’t read that, but given baseball’s reluctance to devalue pitcher wins and hitters’ RBI, I’m not enthused about being judged by my measurables.
There isn't much information on there that I'd worry much about.
I just want to take a minute to give a big F-you to SAP.
been doing that for years, friend.
I had almost eight blissful, SAP-free years. But now I'm back on it, and to make it even more frustrating, our 3D modeling software is tied directly to it. That is a new level of frustration I didn't even know was possible.
3D modeling in SAP? That sounds like asking an Edsel to go driverless.
Oh man, no, it isn't quite that awful. It's just PTC Creo integrated with SAP. The actual act of modeling and doing drawings is okayish (its not my favorite software, but it only give mild headached), but trying to go from the drawings to storing pdf's in a document management system through SAP is migraine inducing. Gives me lots of time to check the WGOM, though!
SBGville won their 5th state football championship this morning, thumping the Private School Privateers 60-26 to finish unbeaten.
In case anyone is out there, last day to get your Holiday song nominations in.
The best part about fall is when the early fall beers that don't get sold during early fall get really cheap. The local grocery store had goose island fest bier sixers for 3.99. much like Molitor, I was forced to call in a second six pack.
dude. Ixnay on the religious talk.
Have we talked about this year Hall of Fame nominees "Modern Baseball Era Committee" edition?
Hopefully Marvin MIller and Alan Trammell gets in here.
Buck also won the Platinum Gold Glove for the AL from Rawlings, which is essentially being named the best defensive player in the AL among the Gold Glove winners. So basically, Buck is the consensus best defensive player in baseball.
It's that time of year. The US curling Olympic trials start tomorrow. NBC is streaming games live starting tomorrow at 1:00. If you're interested in watching and looking for a routing interest, the Craig brown rink is a good choice. They are Madison based, Craig a good dude, and I've played with the guy playing second for him a bunch of times.
On the women's side, the Nina Roth rink is also Madison based and my team beat her husband's team in a five year and under tournament a few years ago.
I've noticed that the Twins have significantly fewer players in winter ball this year than in years past. I don't know if that's a trend throughout baseball, if it's a change in organizational philosophy, or if it's just the way it happened to work out this year. I don't know what it means or if it means anything. I just find it interesting.
The expected has happened: Otani to be posted.
Is it depression or disease?
a. Pretty sure that depression IS a disease
b. the fuzz on that was like fingernails on a chalk board
a. Tell it to the millipedes, Mr. Literal.
b. It's lovely when you get to the "guitar solo" at 3:44.
There's a cleaned-up remix which takes out the fuzz and quantizes a lot of it. Maybe a decent gateway to the better original?
Continuing from yesterday, I've also found twitchy, jejune, wahoo, and the half-bakef yeahneneither. Also found light, but not lightrail
Nice to see that ESPN has finally realized, in their offseason preview, that the Twins made the playoffs. And that what it means for the team is that they should give up on 2018 and try to get some pitching prospects.
Same odds of winning the 2018 World Series as the Royals (80 to 1). I'd argue that obviously the odds for both teams are pretty low, but they have the Tigers at 300 to 1, so they are clearly delineating it to some degree, and the conclusion they came to is that the up and coming Twins have the same shot as the team that went 80-82 and is losing at LEAST two of their three core players.
And same odds as the White Sox, for that matter.
They're assuming the Twins will face the Yankees at some point in the postseason so it makes sense about the long odds.
At least they're consistent. For the Yankees's playoff odds they don't say "6:1" or "80:1" or anything like that. It's just "1".
Lego antikythera!
Healthy life-expectancy calculator
I am looking at another 40.5 of healthy life expectancy, and 43-44 years overall. I'd say that is pretty damned good for a 54-year old. Would be nice to have that life expectancy bracketed by a confidence interval.
Well, nice to know that losing 20 lbs won't make any difference...
Apparently, I could drink more and not lose any years off my life.
#winning
48.5. I get really burned by BMI, which does not appreciate my body type ("Flabulous!").
I'd have to lose 50 pounds before it adds a year and even then they tell me I've got to watch it. Alternatively I could grow 6". Or jump up an income level. Who knew BMI discriminated based on wealth?
BMI doesn't discriminate based on wealth, life expectancy does.
Was joak.
There’s more than a little research to suggest that BMI & socio-economic status are inversely related, however.
BMI only really makes sense on the population level, not the individual level. According to BMI, I am overweight even though I have a waist size of 32” at 5’11” tall and fit in the same pants I wore 35 pounds ago (though my shoulders don’t fit my old shirts.)
There’s just something perverse to me about a culture that spends so much time in reverence of athletes placing value in a metric that deems Joe Mauer overweight.
I had a coworker that outweighed me by 40 pounds but probably had a lower body fat percentage than me. He had more expensive life insurance due to BMI.
Right, because the insurance company only cares that the risk is pooled accurately, not that individuals are charged fairly.
of course, in equilibrium, the individuals are charged "fairly" in order to construct and maintain the risk pool accurately. If you are not being charged your actuarially expected costs, you are either incentivized to leave (because the expected value of the insurance is less than what you are paying) or you are going to tend to bankrupt the fund.
Excuse me if a chuckle a bit at the idea of a random person on the street really being able to accurately assess the expected value of their life insurance policy. Plus, barriers to entry, etc.
they don't have to. That's how markets work. Competing insurers will poach cheaper customers with lower rates to the degree that risk differences are predictable/can be modeled. If the insurer is systematically under-pricing policies, they will suffer from adverse selection and lose money.
you have to make arguments about insurers exercising market power to systematically "screw" consumers in a way that does not open up exit opportunities. I agree that collusion amongst major insurers is a real threat. But there are a zillion providers of term life.
I should probably have added that I am, in general, on the side of "eff insurance companies," despite my panglossian comments above.
But there are a zillion providers of term life.
Due to the competition, I doubt there is a much of a margin in term insurance. Using the BMI isn't perfect but more advanced health statistics are probably too expensive to be worthwhile.
I've had more than one insurance in the past which required a blood sample.
Mine indicated a 5% difference in live expectancy improvement between getting more hours of sleep and lowering my BMI. My only question is whether getting better sleep will result in an appreciable net difference in my waking hours during the remaining years of my life.
Only if you're currently awake for more than 20 hours/day. Otherwise, you're losing awake time.
Does it factor in that AMR will likely live forever?
Three thoughts, two somewhat silly.
1. Not if my (lack of) success at finding Porcinis continues.
2. Unless I kill myself first. (edit: kill myself... with mushrooms. I'm not hinting suicide here.)
3. This is good: "the antioxidants in the mushrooms appear heat-stable" as eating anything more than very small quantities of raw mushrooms can be very hard for a human digestive system to break down.
That sleep range is pretty wide in the 5-8 range.
I would think not asking about family health history would introduce a pretty huge grain of salt in these projections.
If anyone's read John Hodgman's chapter on Actuarial Tattoos in What Will Happen in the Future, you may know why I'm not going to follow that link.
I haven’t read that, but given baseball’s reluctance to devalue pitcher wins and hitters’ RBI, I’m not enthused about being judged by my measurables.
There isn't much information on there that I'd worry much about.
I just want to take a minute to give a big F-you to SAP.
been doing that for years, friend.
I had almost eight blissful, SAP-free years. But now I'm back on it, and to make it even more frustrating, our 3D modeling software is tied directly to it. That is a new level of frustration I didn't even know was possible.
3D modeling in SAP? That sounds like asking an Edsel to go driverless.
Oh man, no, it isn't quite that awful. It's just PTC Creo integrated with SAP. The actual act of modeling and doing drawings is okayish (its not my favorite software, but it only give mild headached), but trying to go from the drawings to storing pdf's in a document management system through SAP is migraine inducing. Gives me lots of time to check the WGOM, though!
SBGville won their 5th state football championship this morning, thumping the Private School Privateers 60-26 to finish unbeaten.
In case anyone is out there, last day to get your Holiday song nominations in.
The best part about fall is when the early fall beers that don't get sold during early fall get really cheap. The local grocery store had goose island fest bier sixers for 3.99. much like Molitor, I was forced to call in a second six pack.
dude. Ixnay on the religious talk.
Have we talked about this year Hall of Fame nominees "Modern Baseball Era Committee" edition?
Hopefully Marvin MIller and Alan Trammell gets in here.
And Lou Whitaker. Oh, wait...
Buck wins!
He hit enough dingers to win the award!
Buck also won the Platinum Gold Glove for the AL from Rawlings, which is essentially being named the best defensive player in the AL among the Gold Glove winners. So basically, Buck is the consensus best defensive player in baseball.
It's that time of year. The US curling Olympic trials start tomorrow. NBC is streaming games live starting tomorrow at 1:00. If you're interested in watching and looking for a routing interest, the Craig brown rink is a good choice. They are Madison based, Craig a good dude, and I've played with the guy playing second for him a bunch of times.
On the women's side, the Nina Roth rink is also Madison based and my team beat her husband's team in a five year and under tournament a few years ago.