Cup of Coffee

June 20, 2019: Sa-nó?

55 Comments

How many games will the Twins win in 2024?

  • 87-90 (44%, 8 Votes)
  • 91+ (22%, 4 Votes)
  • 84-86 (22%, 4 Votes)
  • 77-80 (11%, 2 Votes)
  • 81-83 (0%, 0 Votes)
  • 76- (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 18

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55 thoughts on “June 20, 2019: Sa-nó?”

  1. I am way the hell out on Sano and think they need to get what they can before they can't get anything.

  2. Sano was the one player I was excited enough about to get a shirsey for. Then the off the field stuff happened, and I got rid of it.

  3. He still has an elite SLG, despite a terrible last 2 weeks (167/250/361, 19:4 K:BB in 40 PA).

    But let's remember that we are still in Small Sample Theater territory. 24 games. 106 PA. I am not ready for a panic sale.

      1. I mean, he was a deserving all star as recently as 2017

        I'm fine with trading him, I'd be perfectly fine trading him, but it would be silly to do so just to get him off the team. His value isn't going to be real high right now.

        1. Basically where I am. He's in a slump right now and trading him is far too reactionary. Let's not forget he destroyed the ball in May.

          1. I'm the current lone "he adds value" voter. I think that overstates my thoughts. But I think he's certainly a fixable project who can add value. I'm not sure if this is just a natural slump, and when he starts seeing the ball well again it'll be fine, or if it's something mechanically wrong with his approach (I'm leaning towards this...), but either way, I think there is value there, and the right kind of value given the rest of the makeup of the team.

  4. I'm willing to shop just about anybody. As Bill Veeck said, there's no such thing as a truly untouchable player if you get the right offer.

  5. I found this interesting (min. 1000 PA through age 26). Find Sanó:

    Player OBP SLG OPS+ ISO SO%
    A .317 .478 104 .248 35.8
    B .317 .478 108 .241 33.6
    C .337 .472 111 .242 28.8
    D .340 .462 113 .236 33.5
    E .299 .476 114 .250 29.6
    F .330 .482 115 .225 24.1
    G .334 .526 116 .255 25.0
    H .334 .480 117 .238 36.5
    I .332 .519 118 .306 37.6
    J .345 .520 120 .236 22.5
    Answers SelectShow

    1. I think the trend for Sano is the most disturbing thing. His best year, by far, was his first one.

      1. I think that if he eased up just a bit (he's strong enough that the way the ball is flying, he could practically hit a home run on a checked swing) and got a little better with pitch detection, he could be an elite hitter.

        2. Maybe, but I think that’s a pretty tall order. Let’s say Sanó was suddenly able to get his strikeout rate down to 30%, a rate he’s never achieved, and just maintains his career ISO & OPS+. Only two players in MLB history have maintained an ISO within twenty points of Sanó’s through at least 1000 PA over their age 26–29 seasons while striking out at a 30% or higher rate: Jack Cust & Chris Davis.

          I’m frankly not sure Sanó brings much of anything in return. To find even five players with 1000 PA ages 26–29 and Sanó’s ISO & OPS+, you’d have to lower the strikeout rate threshold to 27%, which adds Ryan Howard, Giancarlo Stanton, Bo Jackson, Justin Upton, and Dave Kingman to the list.

          1. Yeah, and his defense is suspect, and 1B/DH are a dime a dozen right now. He won't nab anyone in trade beyond a low-level fringe guy I'm guessing. Perhaps a decent minor-league reliever.

    3. Revealing the answers and there's now one player that is different, possibly.

      Spoiler SelectShow

    4. Player K - (OBP .348), (SLG - .461), (OPS+ - 108), (ISO - .195), (SO% - 20.0)

      He got better once he got to Boston, though. Up til then, he was Geoff Jenkins without the pop.

      (edited, as I messed up the K% in my first draft)

      1. Ortiz isn't predictive in any way, of course. But, prior to 2018, Sano was an all star on the rise. He's been hurt (and almost certainly overcompensating) ever since.

        I can't believe I'm playing devil's advocate for Sano. Ooky.

          1. I mean, I get it. I'm arguing that he has baseball value, even as I'd like the whole situation to go away by having him be someone else's problem. It's hypocritical of me. The baseball value and off field hangups exist completely separate of each other and should be viewed independently. But that's way easier said than done for me.

            If he turned it around and provided Bondsian numbers for the rest of the year, then what do I argue for? Baseball-wise, you absolutely want that player on the team. No one is arguing that we should be trading Buxton now that his value is up, even if his baseball value was even lower than Sano's last season (and surely, his potential is higher than Sano's, but Sano has very high hitting potential, himself).

            A year and a half later, I still don't know. It's an uncomfortable question that I don't know how to answer to my own satisfaction.

        1. I wasn't implying that you missed someone, I was curious how Ortiz matched up against the players you had mentioned and once I looked it up, I figured I may as well share

          1. Oh yeah, no worries! I just realized I hadn’t disclosed all my filters. I also shouldn’t imply my list above is exhaustive. I was simply looking for guys who seemed within shouting distance of Sanó. For example, I excluded these two:

            Player OBP SLG OPS+ ISO SO%
            W. Post .322 .496 111 .229 17.4
            E. Chavez .354 .502 123 .225 16.0

            Sanó’s OPS+ and ISO actually line up very favorably with Troy Glaus through the same age, but Glaus has an OBP 23 points higher — and a strikeout rate 38% lower — than Sanó’s marks.

            1. Glaus seems like a nice comp, actually. He was a very good player right up until after his age 31 season. I think the Twins would be thrilled to get Troy Glaus for the next few seasons.

              1. Glaus was a quite valuable young player (21.2 rWAR through age 26), so I think the Twins would do collective cartwheels if Sanó turned into Glaus. In a few key areas, they aren’t that far apart:

                Player HR% BB% XBH% X/H% SO/BB IP% LD%
                Glaus 5.1 13.6 10.0 47 1.67 58 23
                Sanó 5.3 11.9 9.9 47 3.06 46 25

                I’d be shocked if Sanó could get his strikeout rate below 30%, which seems pretty essential to him having any kind of meaningful value.

  6. Let's spin it forward. Say the Twins do trade Sano. The options for third base, off the top of my head, would be Marwin, Arraez, Adrianza, and A-Stud. Who do you go with?

    1. Marwin has 3 DRS at third through 260+ innings at third this season; his career total is 2 DRS. Adrianza’s slightly better (4 DRS) over his career, with about half the innings. Astudillo has 0 DRS, but fewer than sixty innings, and Arraez has a fraction of that. Assuming he’s healthy, I’d probably give Marwin 50–60% of the starts the rest of the way, rotate Adrianza & Astudillo through the balance of the rest of the time, and see what the rest of the roster means for Arraez.

  7. Wut?

    2. This has to be the next step of brinksmanship to get a favorable funding deal for the Ybor City ballpark, or to precipitate the timeline Jayson Stark outlined for The Athletic last month:

      So here’s [the Rays’] timeline:

      · Their lease at the Trop runs through 2027. That means the countdown clock has eight years remaining.

      · By 2021 or 2022, Sternberg has hinted, he is going to say something to the effect that “we need to know where we’re going to be” when the lease runs out. If it takes five years or so to get a new park agreed to, funded and built — and potentially another year or two to explore relocation — then do that math. It suggests that sometime next year, the owner will be playing the Build It or Else card he has patiently resisted playing.

      · And then, once that threat is hanging over everyone, we’ll find out. Won’t we? Only then, said Bill Sutton, will “you get a Save Our Rays campaign, and we’ll see what happens from there.”

      1. Right. They're not actually going to do this. They're just asking if they have this particular bullet in their gun.

    3. That's a cool idea, but when Tampa sucks, there's a lot less excitement when they start playing later in the season and are already out of the race. Or...Tampa gets screwed on the late season run (and postseason?) when they're good.

      1. There’s also the question of where they’d play their home games in any postseason series. I can’t imagine maintaining a playing surface for months on the off-chance your team returns “home” to play a postseason game.

        According to this site, the Rays’ spring training lease in Port Charlotte runs an additional year longer than their lease at the Trop, so it wouldn’t be as simple as turning their Tampa Bay “home” park over to a minor league affiliate to keep the place in use.

    4. Just have them become "America's Team" and have them barnstorm minor league parks all season.

      Wouldn't be a great way to get players to want to join your team*, but I'd make a point to watch.

      *Would actually be an incredibly horrible thing to play on this team.

    5. I'll like it if they have them as the Rays in the AL for the first half and Expos in the NL for the second half.

    1. A part of Odorizzi’s 2019 success can be owed to pitching coach Wes Johnson and the forward-thinking Twins analytics department,

      This is not the old-school Twins we were so used to.

  9. Today is the day that Eddie puts one over the fence, and gives me a point in this contest thingy too.

  11. 80 years ago today, the Mayo Clinic reported that Lou Gehrig had ALS.

    (sad hat tip top Chris Jaffe, as usual)

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