Twins winning percentage over those years: .465. Using the Log 5 method and assuming the Yankees true win probability was .611 and the Twins at .465, you would expect a .644 record. That ignores home field advantage however that won't change it much. Overall, not that far off.
Limited wi-fi yesterday. At one point saw the twins had a nice early lead. Got some coffee, going to settle in and read all... checks notes... 425 comments. Should be exciting....
Yes, exciting. ... If everyone but Geoff cursing is exciting.
519 across two posts. 419 in the first post and another 110 in the second.
There were 213 LTEs in the Game 1 against the Yankees, 462 in Game 2, and 364 in Game 3.
These tickets will be hard to come by I'm guessing.
I'm on the USWNT presale email. Hopefully that'll help.
I am as well. Hoping the same.
on the Twitters, Glen Perkins took full credit for the loss since one time John Ryan Murphy took him deep
I was at that game, too.
I know Perkins won't directly criticize the old front office, but that comment saying that's why they traded for JR Murphy was pretty close.
Gary Sanchez to the IL. They also swapped Holder for Cortes Jr. I don't know why, he didn't pitch last night. New names to haunt the Twins for tonight's game.
I think tonight's game could be very interesting. A good performance from the Twins, regardless of outcome, would be a very good sign.
h/t DW
Starting Thursday with Oakland, this has been equivalent of a seven-game Stanley Cup conference final for Twins. These games have been dramatic and exhausting for all -- and with no days off in-between. It's tied 3-3 and tonight is Game 7.
Yeah, me too. It's why I really want to see them put up a fight tonight - I want to see that there's just no quit in this team.
Odorizzi vs. Happ. I'll take it. In fact, I'm taking one for the team and leaving Happ in my fantasy lineup because guaranteed he'd get the win if I left him on the bench the way my fantasy season is going.
I loved last nights game. I don't even care that we lost. Hicks made a terrific catch and I'm cool with Hicks.
The more I think about it, the more I feel as if, in a vacuum, with no history between the two teams, just going off of the first two games and how they played out, we'd think that the Twins were the better team and that the Yankees had even worse pitching issues than the Twins. I'm hoping tonight bears that out.
And yeah, last night's game was completely draining, but it was a really, really good game.
Right -- we ripped their best starter last night, big time.
I'll be indisposed, and I haven't seen a Twins lineup yet, but I'm going to go with Sano's hot hand.
I'll say Cruz. Also no idea if he's in the lineup.
Twins lost, 14-12. Their pitchers combined for a Win Probability Added of -1.67, which is the worst pitching total for any game in the 59-year history of the Minnesota Twins.
Some context for WPA: Both teams start each game with a hypothetical 50% chance to win. So every +0.50 or -0.50 WPA accounts for one win or one loss. All of which means the Twins' pitchers, with -1.67 WPA, performed poorly enough to lose *more than three games* all by themselves.
Yeah took us by surprise. That’s why backpack was left behind.
Woah. I hear mooses are not to be trifled with.
meese*
Parker DFA'd, and somebody named "Carlos Torres" takes his place. He's being described as a "journeyman", so maybe Philo wasn't that far off with his hot MLB Trae Rumors tip about cloning Parker.
You just wait... soon enough they'll send down Torres and call up Plake Barker.
I don't really get how you go from "This guy is our best choice to pitch in the 8th inning against the Yankees" to "We need to release this guy" within 24 hours.
I think it was "best choice to pitch with a 4 run lead" which is a lot closer to "we need to release this guy".
More like "A choice to pitch with a four run lead."
Like I said in the game log: "Prior to this game, Parker had a 1.35 ERA in his previous 12 apps, 13.1 IP, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and just 1 HR allowed. He was 1-0 with 4 holds, 1 save and no blown saves. This goes back to June 15. Whatever the Twins' problems have been, it's not been Blake Parker till tonight."
I really don't get it. Harper has a ERA over 5.00 over the last month and has pitched in 4 of the last 5 days. He could easily be optioned down and Torres placed on one of the open 40-man spots. Even after last night, I would trust Parker right now over basically anybody in the pen out side of Rogers and possibly Duffey. May has been shelled lately. Everybody is sitting on Harper's curveball. Torres' numbers the last couple years in the majors are awful.
Why Parker's last dozen appearances? Is there some change he made on June 15th that informs the limits of that sample? His ERA over his last fifteen appearances before yesterday's game was 4.11, his FIP was 6.10, and his WHIP was 1.63.
You point to Harper's ERA. Over Harper's last fifteen appearances before yesterday, his ERA (5.54) is higher than Parker's, but his FIP (4.76) and WHIP (1.15) are significantly lower. He's struck out 25.9% of batters he's faced over that span, compared to Parker's 22.2%, which might not seem significant, but Harper's walked just 3.3% of batters over that span, while Parker's walked 9.7%. Harper's hard contact rate is 32.4%; Parker's is 45.8%.
Parker sucks right? That's what all those numbers mean?
He's also 11th percentile in xwOBA. He has an actual wOBA of .333 now but xwOBA of .360.
And that's with Parker not facing anything close to the situations that Harper's had to face
Parker has a WPA of 0.9 on the season. Harper is at -0.4. Harper has allowed 48% of his inherited runners to score this season. That's awful. MLB average is 32%. Parker allowed 1 of 9 inherited runners to score. He had 19 combined saves and holds and just one blown save (Taylor Rogers has 5 BS). Now I'm not saying I think Parker is any great reliever or anything. I just think the hate for him for his first bad game in a month was way over the top and he didn't deserve to be released when several relievers with options have been hit around multiple times in the last week or two.
"First bad game in a month" overlooks the many bad games more than a month ago.
Dude, Harper’s inherited 33 runners to Parker’s 9. That’s not a remotely fair comparison.
yeah, regardless of inherited runners scoring, Rocco isn't even confident enough to use Parker in those situations, rightly or not
Precisely. Harper’s pitched in 45 games and has come in with runners on in 20 of them (44.4%). Parker pitched 37 games and came in with runners on just 7 times (18.9%).
I still think it's weird to DFA him. I'm not a fan but I don't think they have good replacements in line, until Graterol is up here.
Maybe he's an asshole.
Graterol? I hope not!
SEND HIM!!He's exactly the type of pitcher that can come out of the bullpen late in the year.
Did you say Carlos Danger?
Jeebus, I didn't expect them to take me so literally.
Marwin again.
Garver
Is there a place where you're keeping the standings we can get to?
On my Google Drive. I could share the link with peeps or someone could teach me how to upload it daily
if it's a spreadsheet you're continually updating, i think the same link should be fine throughout. we can add it to the FAQ section if you want.
Google Drive Sheet? There is an option to share with anyone that has the link.
Ah, right.
kep and rosie
Now that's bold.
full disclosure: i wasn't watching the game, called kep and rosie, and 30 seconds later i got a notification on my phone.
also, thanks to the pastor and the philosopher, gotta make bold moves to catch up.
If Kep gets a pinch hit homer you will have so many points
Oh crap. Missed that part.
I'm taking Arraez to hit #3 tonight.
Awfully specific to hit that spot. Maybe you should just say "any retired number"?
Still foul though so bad call to get any points with the current rules.
I think if you call a number to get hit, and it does, that person can have meat's 1000 points.
Sounds like that 1K is like a travelling trophy of sorts
Have I mentioned my cold, dead hands today?
Eddie!
Oy vey - this is the first time I've tuned into an ESPN broadcast - these guys are AWFUL.
So, now that we are no longer repeating games 88, 89, etc., we have found other ways to back in time. Was this June 24 better or worse than the original?
So, I guess I was right to try to completely ignore this series, then. Last night was Blakein frustrating.
Twins won 9-5. I'm never looking at a late night box score early in the morning again.
Well, Cody Stashak had a nice two innings at least.
so did Gibby
Ouch
Well, since we tied the 2004 team's HR total, I'll look at the next in line, the 1987 team:
Yankmes winning percentages, 2010–2019:
well, let's see about fixing that a bit today
Twins winning percentage over those years: .465. Using the Log 5 method and assuming the Yankees true win probability was .611 and the Twins at .465, you would expect a .644 record. That ignores home field advantage however that won't change it much. Overall, not that far off.
Limited wi-fi yesterday. At one point saw the twins had a nice early lead. Got some coffee, going to settle in and read all... checks notes... 425 comments. Should be exciting....
Yes, exciting. ... If everyone but Geoff cursing is exciting.
It was tied with the 2012 Opener at 424. Now solely in fifth place for all-time LTEs. Fourth is a random game in 2011 started by Nick Blackburn.
I assume this doesn't include the previous site where Game 163 broke the internet
Yeah, I don't have the database from the previous basement. Checking the Wayback Machine I can't get close enough to that date to get a count.
Managed to find it. Guess how many LTEs to break it.
I made just one comment on that thread and it was about how much Amy Winehouse drank the day she died.
Lots of posts by Greekhouse
I never did get my PS3.
Wasn’t I in line after you for the ps3? I can’t remember
https://www.kare11.com/article/sports/world-champion-us-womens-soccer-team-coming-to-allianz-field/89-0f7efd46-8e30-430d-8926-723e18402815
These tickets will be hard to come by I'm guessing.
I'm on the USWNT presale email. Hopefully that'll help.
I am as well. Hoping the same.
on the Twitters, Glen Perkins took full credit for the loss since one time John Ryan Murphy took him deep
I was at that game, too.
I know Perkins won't directly criticize the old front office, but that comment saying that's why they traded for JR Murphy was pretty close.
Gary Sanchez to the IL. They also swapped Holder for Cortes Jr. I don't know why, he didn't pitch last night. New names to haunt the Twins for tonight's game.
I think tonight's game could be very interesting. A good performance from the Twins, regardless of outcome, would be a very good sign.
h/t DW
I like that analogy.
Yeah, me too. It's why I really want to see them put up a fight tonight - I want to see that there's just no quit in this team.
Odorizzi vs. Happ. I'll take it. In fact, I'm taking one for the team and leaving Happ in my fantasy lineup because guaranteed he'd get the win if I left him on the bench the way my fantasy season is going.
I loved last nights game. I don't even care that we lost. Hicks made a terrific catch and I'm cool with Hicks.
The more I think about it, the more I feel as if, in a vacuum, with no history between the two teams, just going off of the first two games and how they played out, we'd think that the Twins were the better team and that the Yankees had even worse pitching issues than the Twins. I'm hoping tonight bears that out.
And yeah, last night's game was completely draining, but it was a really, really good game.
Right -- we ripped their best starter last night, big time.
I'll be indisposed, and I haven't seen a Twins lineup yet, but I'm going to go with Sano's hot hand.
I'll say Cruz. Also no idea if he's in the lineup.
RIP Rutger Hauer
All those moments will be lost in time...
You’re awfully close to the wild lifes.
Yeah took us by surprise. That’s why backpack was left behind.
Woah. I hear mooses are not to be trifled with.
meese*
Parker DFA'd, and somebody named "Carlos Torres" takes his place. He's being described as a "journeyman", so maybe Philo wasn't that far off with his hot MLB Trae Rumors tip about cloning Parker.
You just wait... soon enough they'll send down Torres and call up Plake Barker.
I don't really get how you go from "This guy is our best choice to pitch in the 8th inning against the Yankees" to "We need to release this guy" within 24 hours.
I think it was "best choice to pitch with a 4 run lead" which is a lot closer to "we need to release this guy".
More like "A choice to pitch with a four run lead."
Like I said in the game log: "Prior to this game, Parker had a 1.35 ERA in his previous 12 apps, 13.1 IP, with a 15/5 K/BB ratio and just 1 HR allowed. He was 1-0 with 4 holds, 1 save and no blown saves. This goes back to June 15. Whatever the Twins' problems have been, it's not been Blake Parker till tonight."
I really don't get it. Harper has a ERA over 5.00 over the last month and has pitched in 4 of the last 5 days. He could easily be optioned down and Torres placed on one of the open 40-man spots. Even after last night, I would trust Parker right now over basically anybody in the pen out side of Rogers and possibly Duffey. May has been shelled lately. Everybody is sitting on Harper's curveball. Torres' numbers the last couple years in the majors are awful.
Why Parker's last dozen appearances? Is there some change he made on June 15th that informs the limits of that sample? His ERA over his last fifteen appearances before yesterday's game was 4.11, his FIP was 6.10, and his WHIP was 1.63.
You point to Harper's ERA. Over Harper's last fifteen appearances before yesterday, his ERA (5.54) is higher than Parker's, but his FIP (4.76) and WHIP (1.15) are significantly lower. He's struck out 25.9% of batters he's faced over that span, compared to Parker's 22.2%, which might not seem significant, but Harper's walked just 3.3% of batters over that span, while Parker's walked 9.7%. Harper's hard contact rate is 32.4%; Parker's is 45.8%.
Parker sucks right? That's what all those numbers mean?
He's also 11th percentile in xwOBA. He has an actual wOBA of .333 now but xwOBA of .360.
And that's with Parker not facing anything close to the situations that Harper's had to face
Parker has a WPA of 0.9 on the season. Harper is at -0.4. Harper has allowed 48% of his inherited runners to score this season. That's awful. MLB average is 32%. Parker allowed 1 of 9 inherited runners to score. He had 19 combined saves and holds and just one blown save (Taylor Rogers has 5 BS). Now I'm not saying I think Parker is any great reliever or anything. I just think the hate for him for his first bad game in a month was way over the top and he didn't deserve to be released when several relievers with options have been hit around multiple times in the last week or two.
"First bad game in a month" overlooks the many bad games more than a month ago.
Dude, Harper’s inherited 33 runners to Parker’s 9. That’s not a remotely fair comparison.
yeah, regardless of inherited runners scoring, Rocco isn't even confident enough to use Parker in those situations, rightly or not
Precisely. Harper’s pitched in 45 games and has come in with runners on in 20 of them (44.4%). Parker pitched 37 games and came in with runners on just 7 times (18.9%).
I still think it's weird to DFA him. I'm not a fan but I don't think they have good replacements in line, until Graterol is up here.
Maybe he's an asshole.
Graterol? I hope not!
SEND HIM!!He's exactly the type of pitcher that can come out of the bullpen late in the year.
Did you say Carlos Danger?
Jeebus, I didn't expect them to take me so literally.
Marwin again.
Garver
Is there a place where you're keeping the standings we can get to?
On my Google Drive. I could share the link with peeps or someone could teach me how to upload it daily
if it's a spreadsheet you're continually updating, i think the same link should be fine throughout. we can add it to the FAQ section if you want.
Google Drive Sheet? There is an option to share with anyone that has the link.
Ah, right.
kep and rosie
Now that's bold.
full disclosure: i wasn't watching the game, called kep and rosie, and 30 seconds later i got a notification on my phone.
also, thanks to the pastor and the philosopher, gotta make bold moves to catch up.
If Kep gets a pinch hit homer you will have so many points
Oh crap. Missed that part.
I'm taking Arraez to hit #3 tonight.
Awfully specific to hit that spot. Maybe you should just say "any retired number"?
Still foul though so bad call to get any points with the current rules.
I think if you call a number to get hit, and it does, that person can have meat's 1000 points.
Sounds like that 1K is like a travelling trophy of sorts
Have I mentioned my cold, dead hands today?
Eddie!
Oy vey - this is the first time I've tuned into an ESPN broadcast - these guys are AWFUL.
So, now that we are no longer repeating games 88, 89, etc., we have found other ways to back in time. Was this June 24 better or worse than the original?
what part of "half bakef" don't you get?