25 thoughts on “August 13, 2019: PT Time Return”

  1. Jay Jaffe takes on the Twins dropping out of first place. One thing that popped out to me is how the Indians and Twins performed to June 2 and after while compared to their preseason projections.

    Team Through June 2 June 2 - August 13 Preseason Projections
    Indians .492 .717 .597
    Twins .690 .517 .527

    The Twins' "slide" is less about them blowing the lead than Cleveland giving them the lead and then taking it back. This was helped by the Twins being hot for two months and then performing as projected for two months. Their Pythag since June 2 is .526

    Jaffe also arguably defends the Twins not acquiring more pitching but instead criticizes them for not upgrading at first. He noted multiple easily available improvements, including internally, the Twins passed on.

    1. He noted multiple easily available improvements, including internally, the Twins passed on.

      He noted Tyler White and Aguilar as potential upgrades. I'm not sure that either of these guys would've been any kind of upgrade. White, in particular, has been horrible this year. Much worse than Cron. Aguilar could've probably been traded for, but you'd need to platoon him, and do you really want to devote two roster spots to platoonable first basemen?

      1. Cron hasn't been that great either after May. He missed about half of July so I don't know if he's still injured or not.

        Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
        April/March 88 .232 .284 .451 .735
        May 123 .299 .374 .589 .963
        June 105 .273 .314 .455 .769
        July 34 .188 .235 .406 .642
        August 31 .267 .290 .367 .657
            1. I meant his month-by-month splits this season. I'm still waiting for you (or Jaffe) to try to make an argument that Tyler White would've been an actual improvement for two months of this season.

              1. I wasn't advocating for anyone in particular and instead highlighting that Cron's numbers are held up by a hot start to the season. I didn't mention anyone but I was thinking of trading Cron for Sanó when I wrote that paragraph.

            2. In general, there looks like a fair difference in Cron's fWAR (0.3) and rWAR (1.3), and of course, Jaffe is only going to look at the former and its inputs. The biggest difference I can see is that DRS has graded Cron's defense better than UZR has. The difference between Cron's bWAR and fWAR (1 whole win) is one of the biggest among the batters on the team, I think - Polanco's bWAR is 1.2 wins higher than his fWAR, everyone else has a difference of less than 1.

              I think the best chance for a value improvement overall is, if Buxton comes back, play Sano at first against RHP and Gonzalez at third. Cron is still probably the best available option against LHP. But Jaffe throwing out names like Tyler White (who would've been DFAed today if the Dodgers hadn't ILed him instead with a "trap strain") as if they're an obvious "improvement" is pretty weak on his part.

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