So, especially on a day like today, how's everyone feeling about the Twins right now?
38 thoughts on “September 13, 2019: Outlook”
.500
I hope they can hang on and win the division, because it would be a shame not to after having led so long. But I really don't expect much in the playoffs, assuming they get there.
I was “invited” to buy post season tickets because of a group sale, and the lowest cost option was 1400 per seat. Seeing that they sold out of the general sale in 3 hours makes me wonder who is dropping north of 2k to see this version of the Twins get destroyed by Houston or NY.
If you end up paying full price, that means the Twins made it to the world series. Whether the first round is worth the prorated amount is another question.
Absolutely, but my pessimistic self isn’t interested in giving the twins a zero interest loan.
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On one hand, I'm pessimistic. It's frustrating to watch this team go from really amazing to where they are now. The homerun pace has slowed down, the pitching has come back down to earth, and while there have been flashes of great play (usually against Detroit or Kansas City) there are nights like last night where they strikeout twice with the bases loaded followed by the bullpen giving up a 2-run homer in the top of the next inning.
I also know that our prospects of beating either Houston or New York are slim. On paper, Houston has one of the best 1-2-3 punches in pitching history. And the Yankees have won their last THIRTEEN playoff games against the Twins.
And then the Indians (who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings) are in spitting distance again.
On the other hand, after the Indians we have the also-rans of the AL Central, who we are 31-13 against. While Houston is good on paper, we're still 4-3 against them this year (granted that was pre-Grienke, and I think we lost both against Cole), and the Yankees are hitting injury issues just like the Twins. The Twins also have a great road record (better than home), so home field advantage may not be as crucial. We are also not quite yet at the playoffs, so who's to say we couldn't hit a hot streak at just the right time? There's a part of me that would rather go in with low expectations and exceed them, than go in expecting to win it all followed by a quick exit.
There's 2.5 weeks left. I just hope they can get as healthy as possible and give this team the best chance possible to make some noise. It's been a heck of a season so far. It's not over yet. Anything can happen. It ain't over til it's over.
I’m with punman.
At this point, there are 2 things I want for this team:
1. Get the HR record over the Yankees.
2. Win the AL Central.
If they succeed on both, this season was an unexpectedly huge success. If they fail on both, I will be supremely frustrated. If they succeed only on #1 and are the WC, I suppose I'll be okay with it. If they succeed only on #2, I'll be okay with it and go back to forgetting about the HR record next season.
if they fail on both but win the World Series that would be okay, too.
I would be feeling totally fine right now if half our team wasn't decimated with injuries. It's hard to see Wade, LaMarre, Miller leading us to the playoffs
Same. It's the injuries that have me pessimistic about the team. They aren't in a slump, they're a different team.
meanwhile the Yankees also are decimated by injuries but everyone they trade for or call up hits the same as their stars
Little help, Citizens -- Mrs. Runner is finally hip to cutting the cable (or dish, in this case). We already have Chromecast on all three of our TVs (two of which are smart TVs). We're perfectly adept at casting, so the necessity of a Fire Stick or Roku doesn't really exist, but we need to add an antenna for local feeds, and would like a DVR for it. Is there an option out there that does enough and is easy enough for to use?
For DVRs, there aren't a lot of options. Tivo Bolt might be the best, but it's expensive. I know some people roll their own using Plex. It's common for streaming services to include a DVR these days, obviating a lot of the need.
Mrs. isn't hot on the panel antennas -- we're more than likely going to an attic antenna.
At this point, we're thinking of kicking the tires on Hulu + Live, even.
Before this season, someone looked at how home run-heavy teams did the postseason. It's a Twitter thread, but I think this is the best summary:
440 MLB Playoff Teams All-Time By Guillen Number (% of Runs via HR) Regular Season to Playoffs Scoring Decrease GN Rise Top 110 15% 2% Next 110 17% 8% Next 110 17% 11% Bot 110 27% 16% The homer-reliant teams retain more of their scoring in October
Very short version: scoring drops for everyone, but less for teams dependent on the long ball.
I think it was Mitch Garver explaining Twins philosophy is to try to hit home runs (cover your ears, TK). They especially try to do it against great pitchers because they figure easier to hit one mistake out than try to string together hits, especially with so many strikeouts these days.
I'm outta here in 15 minutes to head home, then down to Iowa to meet my new nephew. He was born on Wednesday - /waves at Rhu
Congrats!
Wednesday was a good day! (past tragedies not-withstanding)
Yankees lead the Twins by 1 HR, but they've played 2 more games, so Twins have the record for most HRs per game. Yankees on page for 307 HRs. Twins on page for 309. The MLB average right now is 206 HRs. The Twins franchise has hit at least 206 HRs in a season just 4 times. That's insane.
The 2011 Twins hit 103 HRs for the full season. That team had Cuddyer, Morneau, Thome, Kubel, Plouffe and Delmon Young. Cuddyer led the team with 20 HRs. Granted, injuries and age limited Thome, Morneau and Kubel, but still.
plus the concrete was still drying
Twins need to hit 9 more HRs so that their franchise record for HRs is greater than their franchise record for SBs. Yes, the 1913 Senators stole 287 bases. No record of CS. They also had 114 sacrifices, although no record of sac flies, so don't know if sacrifice hits counted both. Senators led the AL in SBs but were only 5th (of 8) in runs scored. I'm sure there was much lamenting of the team's ability to hit with RISP.
A friend of mine turned me on to an app called "Seek" by iNaturalist -- among other things, it can use your phone's camera (or photo in your gallery) of an insect (or even flower) and quickly identify it as accurately as possible, even using your location to eliminate false possibilities. There are even abilities to log your sightings, etc. Really cool; I'm looking forward to playing with it more.
If the Indians, A’s, and Rays all wind up tied, the pecking order goes A’s (.692, 9-4), Rays (.642, 9-5), Indians (.154, 2-11) for the aforementioned A hosts B with the winner hosting C scenario. If the Indians do overtake the Twins — something the odds tell us has a 6.2% chance — then the order has the Rays last (.357, 5-9) with the other two teams both at .571 (8-6). The next tiebreaker is which of those two teams has the higher winning percentage in intradivision games; currently, the Twins have the upper hand, as they’re 38-22 (.633) against the AL Central while the A’s are 36-28 (.563) against the AL West
.500
I hope they can hang on and win the division, because it would be a shame not to after having led so long. But I really don't expect much in the playoffs, assuming they get there.
I was “invited” to buy post season tickets because of a group sale, and the lowest cost option was 1400 per seat. Seeing that they sold out of the general sale in 3 hours makes me wonder who is dropping north of 2k to see this version of the Twins get destroyed by Houston or NY.
If you end up paying full price, that means the Twins made it to the world series. Whether the first round is worth the prorated amount is another question.
Absolutely, but my pessimistic self isn’t interested in giving the twins a zero interest loan.
Something something Emeritus & income taxes.
This would give a whole 'nuther nuance to banging the boards.
Hey, man. NSFW tag next time
totally SFW. Just...ew.
teh Googles launches addiction recovery website.
On one hand, I'm pessimistic. It's frustrating to watch this team go from really amazing to where they are now. The homerun pace has slowed down, the pitching has come back down to earth, and while there have been flashes of great play (usually against Detroit or Kansas City) there are nights like last night where they strikeout twice with the bases loaded followed by the bullpen giving up a 2-run homer in the top of the next inning.
I also know that our prospects of beating either Houston or New York are slim. On paper, Houston has one of the best 1-2-3 punches in pitching history. And the Yankees have won their last THIRTEEN playoff games against the Twins.
And then the Indians (who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings) are in spitting distance again.
On the other hand, after the Indians we have the also-rans of the AL Central, who we are 31-13 against. While Houston is good on paper, we're still 4-3 against them this year (granted that was pre-Grienke, and I think we lost both against Cole), and the Yankees are hitting injury issues just like the Twins. The Twins also have a great road record (better than home), so home field advantage may not be as crucial. We are also not quite yet at the playoffs, so who's to say we couldn't hit a hot streak at just the right time? There's a part of me that would rather go in with low expectations and exceed them, than go in expecting to win it all followed by a quick exit.
There's 2.5 weeks left. I just hope they can get as healthy as possible and give this team the best chance possible to make some noise. It's been a heck of a season so far. It's not over yet. Anything can happen. It ain't over til it's over.
I’m with punman.
At this point, there are 2 things I want for this team:
1. Get the HR record over the Yankees.
2. Win the AL Central.
If they succeed on both, this season was an unexpectedly huge success. If they fail on both, I will be supremely frustrated. If they succeed only on #1 and are the WC, I suppose I'll be okay with it. If they succeed only on #2, I'll be okay with it and go back to forgetting about the HR record next season.
if they fail on both but win the World Series that would be okay, too.
I would be feeling totally fine right now if half our team wasn't decimated with injuries. It's hard to see Wade, LaMarre, Miller leading us to the playoffs
Same. It's the injuries that have me pessimistic about the team. They aren't in a slump, they're a different team.
meanwhile the Yankees also are decimated by injuries but everyone they trade for or call up hits the same as their stars
Little help, Citizens -- Mrs. Runner is finally hip to cutting the cable (or dish, in this case). We already have Chromecast on all three of our TVs (two of which are smart TVs). We're perfectly adept at casting, so the necessity of a Fire Stick or Roku doesn't really exist, but we need to add an antenna for local feeds, and would like a DVR for it. Is there an option out there that does enough and is easy enough for to use?
One of the hosts of a podcast I listen to weekly swears by his Mohu Leaf. Tom’s Guide concurs.
Wirecutter likes it too, but prefers a different antenna. I got their pick, the Antennas Direct ClearStream Eclipse, and used it to watch the World Series last year.
For DVRs, there aren't a lot of options. Tivo Bolt might be the best, but it's expensive. I know some people roll their own using Plex. It's common for streaming services to include a DVR these days, obviating a lot of the need.
Mrs. isn't hot on the panel antennas -- we're more than likely going to an attic antenna.
At this point, we're thinking of kicking the tires on Hulu + Live, even.
Before this season, someone looked at how home run-heavy teams did the postseason. It's a Twitter thread, but I think this is the best summary:
Very short version: scoring drops for everyone, but less for teams dependent on the long ball.
I think it was Mitch Garver explaining Twins philosophy is to try to hit home runs (cover your ears, TK). They especially try to do it against great pitchers because they figure easier to hit one mistake out than try to string together hits, especially with so many strikeouts these days.
I'm outta here in 15 minutes to head home, then down to Iowa to meet my new nephew. He was born on Wednesday - /waves at Rhu
Congrats!
Wednesday was a good day! (past tragedies not-withstanding)
Yankees lead the Twins by 1 HR, but they've played 2 more games, so Twins have the record for most HRs per game. Yankees on page for 307 HRs. Twins on page for 309. The MLB average right now is 206 HRs. The Twins franchise has hit at least 206 HRs in a season just 4 times. That's insane.
The 2011 Twins hit 103 HRs for the full season. That team had Cuddyer, Morneau, Thome, Kubel, Plouffe and Delmon Young. Cuddyer led the team with 20 HRs. Granted, injuries and age limited Thome, Morneau and Kubel, but still.
plus the concrete was still drying
Twins need to hit 9 more HRs so that their franchise record for HRs is greater than their franchise record for SBs. Yes, the 1913 Senators stole 287 bases. No record of CS. They also had 114 sacrifices, although no record of sac flies, so don't know if sacrifice hits counted both. Senators led the AL in SBs but were only 5th (of 8) in runs scored. I'm sure there was much lamenting of the team's ability to hit with RISP.
A friend of mine turned me on to an app called "Seek" by iNaturalist -- among other things, it can use your phone's camera (or photo in your gallery) of an insect (or even flower) and quickly identify it as accurately as possible, even using your location to eliminate false possibilities. There are even abilities to log your sightings, etc. Really cool; I'm looking forward to playing with it more.
Cat living his best life.
Kepler and Sano back? I'll take both tonight!
I'll take Kepler,anyway
Astudillo!
A seven-way tie?
A fun/worthwhile read to get to this nugget:
.