Verlander vs Paxton
Three must win games for the Yankees. Prior to yesterday's game, Szymborski calculated the Astros winning game four followed by three Yankees wins at 5.9% chance of happening following the rainout. Not quite the least likely but very close. The Astros meanwhile had a 70.1% chance.
Fast forward through a pleasingly error-filled Yankees loss and that probability is now 92%. They also have an improbable 65% chance at winning it all. That unfortunately means another short series and lots of waiting until the World Series.