2020 Twins Game Logs

2020 GAME 22: KC (+173) at Twins (-188) – Total 9.5

69 Comments

Singer on the mound for KC - he has gone exactly 5.0 IP in all 4 of his starts and KC is 3-1 over those starts including last Sundays 4-2 victory over the Twins.

The Twins are similarly 3-1 over Dobnak's 4 starts.

I think the bats figure Singer out today - take the Twins to win and the game to be more than 10 total runs.

Vegas odds before the season started:

  • 34.5 Wins (Tied for 3rd best with Astros behind Dodgers and Yankees)
  • +800 (meaning 8 to 1 - bet $100 get $900 back - winning $800)  to win the Pennant (4th behind Yankees, Astros, and Rays)
  • +1800 to win the World Series (Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Braves, Athletics with better odds at the time)

Vegas odds as of last week:

  • 40 game win pace
  • +550 to win AL Pennant (2nd behind Yankees)
  • +1000 to win World Series (3rd behind NYY and LAD)

Odds today:

  • 37 game win pace
  • +650 AL Pennant (3rd behind NYY and TB)
  • +1200 World Series (4th LAD, NYY, TB)

Longer shot odds reflect the 3-3 week (3-6 overall stretch) the Twins have had since their best ever franchise start to a season.

The Twins have been a profitable bet to go under the total as they are 8-13 against the total so far (8 games over, 13 games under) and that includes 1-9 at home.

69 thoughts on “2020 GAME 22: KC (+173) at Twins (-188) – Total 9.5”

  5. Well - that's one way to score a run against a bottom of the rotation pitcher you just saw 1 week ago and still can't figure out how to hit.

    2. Not sure. Perhaps so they're less dirty, easier for the umpires to see?

      Anyway, they've done it as far back as I can remember. They usually have kids run out with adults and the kids help put the new ones in.

  20. Probably a good idea to hold him up, but it would've been cool for Alex Avila to have the team's first triple.

    2. it is. On the other hand, 1st and 3rd and no outs, with your best hitters coming up.

      He took the bat out of Cruz's hands and gave up an out in return for one run. Mixed result.

      1. That's the deal you're making, yes. You give yourself a better chance of scoring one, but a worse chance of scoring more. In this situation, having seen the Twins score zero too many times, I'm good with getting one. Others may have a different opinion.

      2. What is the difference in win probability there? I'd think going from one-run lead to two-run lead on the eighth is pretty big.

          1. I’m kind of surprised it’s that small a difference. But, I guess if you’re already at 93.2%, there’s not a lot of room for much of an increase.

            1. Exactly. That .4% represents almost 6% of the gap to 100%.

              That's how this works, right?

              1. Interesting. I guess a lead at any late point in the game as the home team means a very high prob of winning, since the run expectancy for the remainder of the game is about equal.

  31. So fun story, Hrbek's '85 Mercedes broke down in my step dad's garage. They came back from ice fishing and it wouldn't start.

      1. I'm not a fisherman so I forgot to ask that question. They usually go out for bluegills or perch these days, though, so I assume it was the save bag in those days.

  33. Interesting. Why bring Rogers in for the bottom of the order and, presumably, a two-inning save?

    3. Rogers' stats on 0 days' rest aren't great. Probably wanted him against lefties in the bottom of the lineup and then use Romo and his slider vs. RH heavy top of the lineup. It certainly looked good when Romo struck out the side.

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