Huh. How did they come up with Polanco's number? He was 2 for 5 with a double, and Fangraphs and BBref have him in the middle of the pack.
They changed the fangraphs WPA graph. Instead of going to 50% win expectancy at the end of the 9th or 10th they went to ~35% win expectancy for the Twins. Punished the players that made the third out in the 9th (Polanco) and 10th (Sano)
The gray line from TwinsDaily is notable since it means that game wasn't yet finished. I recall the solid green line is assuming each team has a 50% chance of winning while the gray line is if you take into account home field advantage. I wonder if TwinsDaily took a screenshot and got its WPA data as soon as he game ended and overnight, FanGraphs updated its graph with official play-by-play data.
So, Sano and Polanco got dinged for allowing a runner on 2nd at the start of the next inning?
this is a really good question. It's not as though the pitcher should get dinged for the change in win probability arising from the Manfred Runner on 2nd. So how should that be handled?
By getting rid of the rule...
well, yea. But in the meantime....
Twins started the bottom of the 9th tied with 64.4% win expectancy (bases empty)
Twins started the bottom of the 10th tied with 81% win expectancy (Manfred runner)
Thielbar gets a boost for a shutout 10th inning (makes sense). Baddoo and Schoop get big negatives for not scoring the Manfred runner in the 10th.
Fangraphs extra inning WPA is all goofy though, Josh Donaldson got a +.242 at Fangraphs for being intentionally walked in the bottom of the 10th with a runner on third and one out. B-ref gives him a more reasonable +.000
Could be difference between Markov/historical model vs math model. You can get unusual results from both in specific situations. The former can have sample size issues in rare situations while the latter will have strange results because the model doesn't understand the rules.
I watched the baller men beat Iran 120-66 with a game start of 11:40 last night. Amusing, but certainly not surprising in retrospect, to see Iranian players pose for photos with NBA stars after the game.
I don't know if the lack of Bob Odenkirk news since last night is cause for even greater concern or good news.
The most bizarre Twitter comment I saw from a well-wisher was “I hope it was just the extreme New Mexico heat.” Uh, the extreme New Mexico heat can kill people, dude.
While dangerous, it is a lot easier to treat than many other medical emergencies.
I feel better about the Wild than the Twins at this point. And that includes how much leeway either ownership group gives people. Don't know enough about the Lore Group, but, yuck.
I would be much more comfortable if the owners were the Data Group.
I think it's pretty clear at this point that buying out Suter was more than just creating cap space for this year.
They're really driving that point home.
The Wild also signed two more defensemen to two-way contracts (they can be called up or sent down without going through waivers).
I've mentioned before that organizational depth at defense was an issue, these start to address that at least for next season.
Headed MSP -> AMS in a few hours on a $elta standby. We'll see how this nonsense goes. (Both Vaxxed and still masking most places, funny [read: not funny] how seriously covid nurses take this...)
NL isn't even requiring a test again yet (which is bonkers) but I get it as most travelers go through. Restrictions are quickly changing so we'll see if overnight if my PCR from ND isn't on time what that means.
The Wild signed a center.
Gaudreau is depth and the Wild didnt overpay.
Welcome, welcome!
The #mnwild has agreed to terms with forward Frederick Gaudreau on a two-year, $2.4 million contract ($1.2 million AAV).
Penguins fans seem sad to lose him, so thats something.
I’m still semi-unplugged when it comes to hockey. Any chance we’re shoring up the team in a way more attractive to Kaprizov?
I think any top line moves are going to have to be trades. So for now, I don't think Kaprizov's linemates have really changed. The team is pretty similar overall talent-wise to last season, but free agency has only been open for three hours, so there's time.
Word is that the Wild are currently not pursuing a trade for Jack Eichel as a top line center (cost was too high). That was the big splash some were anticipating to set up Kaprizov with a superstar linemate.
Expect absolutely zero offense from Kulikov. He's 30, so leaving his prime, but he's a very good defensive defenseman.
🌲 Per Russo, #mnwild showing interest in 30yo UFA LD Dmitry Kulikov. He played 48 games for New Jersey and Edmonton last season putting up just 4 assists. He’s a pure stay at home defender with okay size at 6’1”, 210 lbs. He’d be a fine Ian Cole replacement on the 3rd pairing. pic.twitter.com/0tG1Ncn79l
— Sound the Foghorn Podcast 🚨 (@SoundTheFoghorn) July 28, 2021
(in other trade news, old friend escobar to the brewers)
Ryan Suter gets 4 years at 3.65M (that's 4.6M more than the Wild were going to pay in actual salary over that time before the buyout) and a no-trade clause in Dallas.
Because he's over 35, this contract can't be bought out (I believe that's right - but i may come back and amend this)
I think the heat n humidity has melted my brain because all day I've read the header as "chili options"
I'd forgotten how much I dig rugby. I should have been watching more of it.
The pandemic pushing the Olympics back a year makes the Olympics 7s and Lions tour of South Africa happen at the same time (they're generally a year off each other)
I feel like I'm spoiled for riches this week.
I got to install an air conditioner in Younger Daughter's apartment today. Ninety year old brick building in Uptown, second floor, haven't been there since we helped her move in February. That place was a sauna. It was an easy job but I was fairly soaked by the time I finished.
I brought one up four flights in our Uptown brick building once. I don't remember if I bothered to bring it back down...
I'm pretty mad on behalf of Garver. What stupid timing on that injury.
Bad as Robles was, Sano still had a worse WPA
Ah, but what will really cook your noodle later is whether Sano would have that bad of a WPA without the Robles implosion.
The Twins have had the lead in the 7th inning or later in 8 of the 13 games since the all star break.
They are 4-4 in those games.
Friends from dc were at the bullseye to see max wall the game off. My folks were there last night to watch them implode. Makes sense.
Bad as Robles was, Sano still had a worse WPA
Also, this isn't even close to true.
Citing my source
Those are some numbers.
Huh. How did they come up with Polanco's number? He was 2 for 5 with a double, and Fangraphs and BBref have him in the middle of the pack.
They changed the fangraphs WPA graph. Instead of going to 50% win expectancy at the end of the 9th or 10th they went to ~35% win expectancy for the Twins. Punished the players that made the third out in the 9th (Polanco) and 10th (Sano)
The gray line from TwinsDaily is notable since it means that game wasn't yet finished. I recall the solid green line is assuming each team has a 50% chance of winning while the gray line is if you take into account home field advantage. I wonder if TwinsDaily took a screenshot and got its WPA data as soon as he game ended and overnight, FanGraphs updated its graph with official play-by-play data.
So, Sano and Polanco got dinged for allowing a runner on 2nd at the start of the next inning?
this is a really good question. It's not as though the pitcher should get dinged for the change in win probability arising from the Manfred Runner on 2nd. So how should that be handled?
By getting rid of the rule...
well, yea. But in the meantime....
Twins started the bottom of the 9th tied with 64.4% win expectancy (bases empty)
Twins started the bottom of the 10th tied with 81% win expectancy (Manfred runner)
Thielbar gets a boost for a shutout 10th inning (makes sense). Baddoo and Schoop get big negatives for not scoring the Manfred runner in the 10th.
Fangraphs extra inning WPA is all goofy though, Josh Donaldson got a +.242 at Fangraphs for being intentionally walked in the bottom of the 10th with a runner on third and one out. B-ref gives him a more reasonable +.000
Could be difference between Markov/historical model vs math model. You can get unusual results from both in specific situations. The former can have sample size issues in rare situations while the latter will have strange results because the model doesn't understand the rules.
I watched the baller men beat Iran 120-66 with a game start of 11:40 last night. Amusing, but certainly not surprising in retrospect, to see Iranian players pose for photos with NBA stars after the game.
I don't know if the lack of Bob Odenkirk news since last night is cause for even greater concern or good news.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/28/entertainment/bob-odenkirk-collapse-intl-scli/index.html
The most bizarre Twitter comment I saw from a well-wisher was “I hope it was just the extreme New Mexico heat.” Uh, the extreme New Mexico heat can kill people, dude.
While dangerous, it is a lot easier to treat than many other medical emergencies.
Wild sign a defenseman.
1 year contract for a 35 year old. Goligoski is fine.
They basically end up paying the same amount for Goligoski + Suter buyout (7.37M) as they would have paid to keep Suter on the roster (7.54M).
I feel better about the Wild than the Twins at this point. And that includes how much leeway either ownership group gives people. Don't know enough about the Lore Group, but, yuck.
I would be much more comfortable if the owners were the Data Group.
I think it's pretty clear at this point that buying out Suter was more than just creating cap space for this year.
They're really driving that point home.
The Wild also signed two more defensemen to two-way contracts (they can be called up or sent down without going through waivers).
I've mentioned before that organizational depth at defense was an issue, these start to address that at least for next season.
Headed MSP -> AMS in a few hours on a $elta standby. We'll see how this nonsense goes. (Both Vaxxed and still masking most places, funny [read: not funny] how seriously covid nurses take this...)
The Wild signed a center.
Gaudreau is depth and the Wild didnt overpay.
Penguins fans seem sad to lose him, so thats something.
I’m still semi-unplugged when it comes to hockey. Any chance we’re shoring up the team in a way more attractive to Kaprizov?
I think any top line moves are going to have to be trades. So for now, I don't think Kaprizov's linemates have really changed. The team is pretty similar overall talent-wise to last season, but free agency has only been open for three hours, so there's time.
Word is that the Wild are currently not pursuing a trade for Jack Eichel as a top line center (cost was too high). That was the big splash some were anticipating to set up Kaprizov with a superstar linemate.
I believe that's one of our new Twins second from the left in the picture
Wild signed another defenseman.
Expect absolutely zero offense from Kulikov. He's 30, so leaving his prime, but he's a very good defensive defenseman.
umm... trevor?
(in other trade news, old friend escobar to the brewers)
Ryan Suter gets 4 years at 3.65M (that's 4.6M more than the Wild were going to pay in actual salary over that time before the buyout) and a no-trade clause in Dallas.
Because he's over 35, this contract can't be bought out (I believe that's right - but i may come back and amend this)
I think the heat n humidity has melted my brain because all day I've read the header as "chili options"
I'd forgotten how much I dig rugby. I should have been watching more of it.
The pandemic pushing the Olympics back a year makes the Olympics 7s and Lions tour of South Africa happen at the same time (they're generally a year off each other)
I feel like I'm spoiled for riches this week.
I got to install an air conditioner in Younger Daughter's apartment today. Ninety year old brick building in Uptown, second floor, haven't been there since we helped her move in February. That place was a sauna. It was an easy job but I was fairly soaked by the time I finished.
I brought one up four flights in our Uptown brick building once. I don't remember if I bothered to bring it back down...