55 thoughts on “January 10, 2023: Well, There’s Your Problem”

  1. Quick recco for a podcast about engineering disasters if that's your thing.

    There's an easy joke there to recommend Gleeman and the Geek to hear all about the MN Twins.

    1. Oooh, Oroville. Up the road from us (enough so that it's not a threat).

      That was quite the saga when it happened.

  2. While I will wholeheartedly second the WTYP rec some caveats should probably be included:

    1. They are long. The shortest episodes are about an hour and a half and often go 2-3 hours, especially if trains are involved.
    2. At least 30-40 minutes of that run time will be unrelated banter.
    3. They have a very leftist bent and are not shy about it.

  3. Got my Pike & Pint reservations for Sunday night. Now I'll have to find some time to stop by the brewery to actually see Zoomx

  4. "Pending Physical" may be doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

    1. Happy as I am to see them sign a premier free agent, my enthusiasm is mixed with trepidation for what this means for the Poissonnière’s favorite player: Luis Arráez.

      Setting aside how my kid would feel about her favorite player getting traded, I think Arráez adds a diversity of approach & ability to force pitchers deep into counts that the rest of the lineup is sorely lacking. Losing him would trend this offense further away from being enjoyable to watch, not closer.

      1. Arraez has exploded in popularity at the card shop. For a solid four months into the season we weren’t being asked about him, and for a few months now I can’t keep his bigger cards in the store for more than a couple of days.

      2. My first reaction is that this would make it more likely for the Twins to keep Arraez around. Honestly, with where the Twins should be able to run their budget, $33M/year for Correa is not really breaking the bank. But still, they've committed more to the budget now, and potentially are more committed to winning in the short run, so they will probably want good $/win with MLB players on the roster and Arraez has that while he's under team control.

        I'm a bit worried about his injury risk and positional downside, but still, it would be nice to see the Twins give him a 6- or 7-year deal so that we buy out his first 2-3 years of free agency well before he gets there. As long as it doesn't have an overly restrictive NTC, just having Arraez on a good long-term deal doesn't even mean he'd be locked in forever, it might even increase his trade value if they were looking to move him in 2-3 years.

        1. I guess I was thinking less about the payroll implications, and more that this might embolden the front office to trade for yet another starting pitcher, but this time using major league talent given that other trades for pitching have already depleted the farm system.

        1. Yeah, $157M/6yr is a totally different ballpark than $200M/6yr. Although, from their initial offer it's kind of hard to modify it in a really sensible way. They could front-load it, but then why would Correa agree to some low-value vesting years at the end of the deal when potentially he could just get more money on the free agent market?

          The allure of the $315M/12yr offer in the first place was just the amount of guaranteed money. The years were always a downside, but after you get to 9 or 10 years, Correa's not going to feel too bad giving up value for years 11-12.

          Maybe it's a little counterintuitive, but I feel like the right counteroffer for the Mets would have been something like $290M/14yr. That way they still maintain the upper hand on guaranteed money, and if Correa breaks into a million pieces, he's not hurting your budget that much in any given year. Plus, Cohen's in finance and rich enough that he basically gets to write the rules, so he can reasonably expect to earn more than inflation on his investments, so deferring money on the Correa contract decreases the effective present value of the contract for him in a way that doesn't hurt Correa the same way -- sure Correa could invest money in a more front-loaded contract, but he can't expect the same rate of return that Cohen can expect.

          The Twins offer isn't that unreasonable from their standpoint, either. Yeah, there is more downside risk in years 4-6 of their deal, but it's still only 6 years guaranteed. It's shorter than the 8 years of the Mauer contract extension, and I don't know that I'd expect a damaged SS to age any worse than a healthy catcher. Overall, I was a lot more worried about signing Correa if it was something like the Trea Turner deal -- I assumed it would take something like $320M/10yr to sign Correa, and even with accounting for inflation and all of that, there are a lot of different ways for a player to regress to replacement level by years 7-10 of a deal like that, and carrying $32M+/year on the books for that long can be a real drag on the budget.

            1. I am perplexed by how risk adverse those two organizations became after showing very little risk aversion in their initial offers.

              1. In the Giants' defense, it seems like Boras just ghosted them when they pushed back regarding the ankle. I'm not sure that Boras ever truly negotiated with them after they canceled that press conference.

                But yeah, if you're going to offer $315M guaranteed for Correa with a good ankle, is $200M guaranteed for Correa with a questionable ankle really that much riskier? You were already expecting most of his value to come in the first half of the contract (just like every deal at 10+ years), which is the time when his ankle is most likely to be functional. Years 6-10 could be low value for a ton of reasons. Like I said in my hypothetical Mets counteroffer, if you have a huge budget in the first place, just reduce the guaranteed amount somewhat and stretch the contract length so you reduce the maximum downside in any given season.

    2. Sounds like the physical is mostly done.

  5. No matter how much I’d like to read Trueblood’s work behind the paywall, I won’t give Twins Daily any money for platforming Schwerzler as a featured contributor. The last 16 hours have been a master class of self-owning buffoonery.

    1. Yeah, Matt had been out of the game entirely, but does just 2 articles a month for them now.

      What opinion of his do you want to know? We've had a fun text thread going the past hour...

      1. It’s less about this particular situation, and more that I just genuinely enjoy Trueblood’s writing and appreciate his sober realism & depth of reflection on the state of the team and the game. To be honest, those qualities make him an outlier at Twins Daily, at least in my understanding of that site’s more recent editorial posture. Unfortunately, Twins Daily seems to have co-opted much of the formerly independent Twins blogosphere.

        I know Trueblood does a Cubs podcast and would be over the moon if he ever co-hosted a Twins one (I understand that’s not a realistic or sustainable thing) with a worthy co-host. (Ideally, someone who doesn’t come off as the uncle addicted to sports radio.) I’d pony up a little subscription cash to defray the cost, but respect that he’s a man who puts his family over diversions.

    1. Huh. Jiminez is young (18) and only has stats in the Dominican summer league, so I don't feel like I can really place a value on him. He did well, but I suspect a lot of DSL guys that play well wind up eventually flaming out -- partly it's just the nature of being young and so far from MLB-ready.

      Alexy's AAA numbers don't blow me away, although IIRC, Round Rock is a pretty hitter-friendly environment, so that could be a mitigating factor.

      9.9 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 2.2 HR/9 -- Alexy, AAA, 110 IP, 19 GS, 34 G

      It also somewhat depends on whether the Twins are looking at Alexy as a starter or a reliever. Since a lot of those numbers were compiled as a starter, it's possible he projects better as a reliever. But either way, that's a pretty big walk rate and home-run rate considering he's pitching to relatively less disciplined minor-league hitters.

      And his major league numbers are SSS, but the concerning thing is that they more or less track with his minor league numbers. Going from 10/5 SO/BB per 9IP in AAA to 6.9/7.8 SO/BB per 9 IP in the majors is unfortunately not that surprising. MLB hitters are just so much more disciplined, you are bound to give up more walks and fewer strikeouts on better takes for borderline pitches.

      But if he's got one really good pitch and one decent secondary pitch, maybe he can help in the bullpen. I think his MLB stats are too limited to glean much from his splits -- if he had more data you might be able to look at first time through the order versus 2nd and 3rd time through the order to get an idea if he'd translate well to the bullpen.

      I'm not too optimistic about him, but at least having 10+ K/9 in the minors, there is some potential there.

    1. If anything, this should make them more in on Ohtani. Can you imagine how good a team would be if you paired Ohtani with another superstar?!?

  6. CC to zooomx.2 - I got word today that Todd LeBoeuf died on December 28 from some sort of cardiac condition, not sure if you had heard.

    1. I had not heard. Thanks for the heads up. That is sad.

      On another sad note, I found out today that one of my uncles committed suicide on Sunday morning. He was in hospice on and off with major respiratory issues. He had held out longer than expected and it is sad to hear that he decided to end it himself. He was a navy guy who fixed helicopters all over the world before settling down in Pensacola. I might be heading down to the panhandle the weekend of the 28th.

      1. So sorry for your loss, zoooms.

        I don't know whether I shared this recently, but a few weeks ago, one of my cousins and her husband died in what likely counts as a murder-suicide. She (in her late 60s or maybe early/mid-70s) has suffered terribly from MS for many years and from progressively worsening dementia. He was her primary caregiver and, I think, had developed health problems as well. They had a special needs son and a son with military service-related PTSD living with them, if I have those facts right. (She is considerably older than me and, I think, I had only met her a couple of times, as they had lived in England for a number of years before moving to the upper Northwest).

        MS is a cruel disease. Dementia is a cruel disease.

  7. My child was today years old when she discovered she likes spaghetti noodles with tomato sauce on them. She discovered this because she ordered the kid’s spaghetti meal at...a Venezuelan restaurant.

      1. It’s been a big week for expanding her food horizons. She realized she likes tater tots after I took her to a townie bar for a burger on Saturday. (She did not like the Shirley Temple.)

        On the other hand, we split six plays and her first-ever jukebox selections were “Uncle John’s Band,” “September,” “& “Puff the Magic Dragon,” so I think I’m not a complete failure as a parent.

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