All posts by Geoff

2020 GAME 48: Indians (+113) at Twins (-123) – Total 9.5

Last Sunday:

  • 36.6 win pace
  • +1000 AL Pennant (7th behind NYY, TB, OAK, CHW, HOU, CLE)
  • +1800 World Series (11th - behind AL teams above plus LAD, SD, ATL,  CHC)

Today:

  • 37 win pace
  • +750 AL Pennant (7th behind NYY, TB, OAK, CHW)
  • +1600 World Series (9th - behind AL teams above plus LAD, SD, ATL,  CHC)

Playoffs.  Lets talk playoffs.  There is a HUGE difference between having the 4th seed or the 5th seed.  The 4th seed means the Twins stay home for the entire best of 3 game series against, and lets just be honest here, it will be, the New York Yankees although if the season ended today it would be Toronto and there is an outside chance it could be Houston.  Fall to the 5th seed and its off to New York - either Yankee stadium or the AAA stadium in Buffalo to play Toronto.

The Twins have the best home record in the majors at 20-5 and among playoff teams only the Astros at 7-17 and the Yankees at 8-14 have worse road records than the Twins 9-13.

The AL Division on AL Championship series will be played in neutral stadiums. According to the NY Times it appears the AL will play in California and the NL in Texas with the World Series in Texas.  So there is no home field advantage to getting a top 3 seed beyond the first round.

So the difference between catching the White Sox and getting a top 3 seed effectively only means the difference in facing Tampa Bay or Oakland in the ALDS or ALCS but the difference between 4th and 5th I believe is the difference between winning and losing that first round matchup - regardless of who the opponent is.  I am scoreboard watching - but I am just as if not more concerned with Toronto and the Yankees than I am with the Bitch Sox. And just as a side note - am I the only one who actually misses Hawk Harrelson?  He made watching Twins Sox games fun - especially when the Twins won.

It is worth note that the Vikings play today and one can understand Kirk Cousins' views on COVID-19. I mean whats more risky to his health: dropping back behind that joke of an offensive line or the corona-virus?

 

 

2020 GAME 42: Tigers (+168) at Twins (-183) – Total 9.0

Before I get into the Twins - I have to tell everyone - 42 minutes.  Front door to front door round trip to Costco for the bi-weekly shopping trip to feed 4 children (3 teenagers) took only 42 minutes.

Odds last Sunday:

  • 35.3 win pace
  • +700 AL Pennant (4th behind NYY, TB,  OAK)
  • +1400 World Series (5th LAD, NYY, TB, OAK)

Odds Today:

  • 36.6 win pace
  • +1000 AL Pennant (7th behind NYY, TB, OAK, CHW, HOU, CLE)
  • +1800 World Series (11th - behind AL teams above plus LAD, SD, ATL,  CHC)

Even after a 5-2 week and a 5 game winning streak - the Twins see their postseason odds at a nadir. I think the odds are bit lagging but it is concerning to see for the first time the Twins with longer odds than both Chicago and Cleveland.

Today - Rich Hill vs Casey Mize.  For the second straight Sunday the Tigers put Mize on the Mound against the Twins who gave up 2 runs over 3 innings last Sunday as the Tigers completed a sweep of the Twins.

The Twins have gone under the total on every game this winning streak and have only gone over 3 out of 20 home games this season.

Take the Twins to win - and for the game to stay under.

 

2020 GAME 35: Twins (-204) at Tigers (+187) – Total 8.5

Odds last Week:

  • 38.6 win pace
  • +600 AL Pennant (3rd behind NYY, TB, tied with HOU)
  • +1200 World Series (3rd behind LAD, NYY, tied with TB and HOU)

Odds today:

  • 35.3 win pace
  • +700 AL Pennant (4th behind NYY, TB,  OAK)
  • +1400 World Series (5th LAD, NYY, TB, OAK)

Change in odds reflects the 1-4 (4 game losing streak) week the Twins have had.  Vegas still sees Twins as the favorites to win the AL Central.

Maeda vs Mizer - The Twins best pitcher vs a rookie making his 3rd start. Twins are slightly more than 2:1 favorites and Vegas has finally started to adjust the total line with an 8.5 on today's game. Twins are 11-21 (2-13 at home!) to the total.

I like the Twins to win - covering the 1.5 run line.  If the Twins figure out Mizer they could put up 8 or more runs by themselves so not touching the OVER/UNDER today.

Lets get things back on track boys.

 

2020 GAME 29: Twins (-148) at KC (+137) – Total 9.5

For the third consecutive Sunday it's a Twins Royals match up.  I'll be happy to be done with this team.

Bullpen game vs a Rookie still looking for his first win - repeat of Monday's matchup the Twins won 4-1 getting 2 runs off Bubic in the 4th inning and 6 twins pitchers not giving up a run until a Dozier HR in the 9th.

Take the Twins to win and lets roll with the under on the total

Odds last week:

  • 37 game win pace
  • +650 AL Pennant (3rd behind NYY and TB)
  • +1200 World Series (4th LAD, NYY, TB)

Odds today:

  • 38.6 win pace
  • +600 AL Pennant (3rd behind NYY, TB, tied with HOU)
  • +1200 World Series (3rd behind LAD, NYY, tied with TB and HOU)

Not much change for Twins future odds after a 4-2 week. Houston odds are decreasing (IE - improving)  and Vegas sees Oakland, Cleveland and the White Sox as lower tier teams from an odds standpoint.

Twins are 9-18 to the total and 2-13 at home to the total - enough games to consider this a trend and it will be interesting to see if Vegas lines adjust (9.5 total today suggests they have not yet adjusted).

2020 GAME 22: KC (+173) at Twins (-188) – Total 9.5

Singer on the mound for KC - he has gone exactly 5.0 IP in all 4 of his starts and KC is 3-1 over those starts including last Sundays 4-2 victory over the Twins.

The Twins are similarly 3-1 over Dobnak's 4 starts.

I think the bats figure Singer out today - take the Twins to win and the game to be more than 10 total runs.

Vegas odds before the season started:

  • 34.5 Wins (Tied for 3rd best with Astros behind Dodgers and Yankees)
  • +800 (meaning 8 to 1 - bet $100 get $900 back - winning $800)  to win the Pennant (4th behind Yankees, Astros, and Rays)
  • +1800 to win the World Series (Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Braves, Athletics with better odds at the time)

Vegas odds as of last week:

  • 40 game win pace
  • +550 to win AL Pennant (2nd behind Yankees)
  • +1000 to win World Series (3rd behind NYY and LAD)

Odds today:

  • 37 game win pace
  • +650 AL Pennant (3rd behind NYY and TB)
  • +1200 World Series (4th LAD, NYY, TB)

Longer shot odds reflect the 3-3 week (3-6 overall stretch) the Twins have had since their best ever franchise start to a season.

The Twins have been a profitable bet to go under the total as they are 8-13 against the total so far (8 games over, 13 games under) and that includes 1-9 at home.

2020 GAME 16: TWINS (-161) at ROYALS (+148)

I'm much better with numbers than I am with words (except of course when it comes to profanity where I do consider myself a bit of an artist) so each Sunday as long as there is baseball you will get a Vegas betting angle on the Twins.

I lived in Vegas for 5 years before a too good to pass up tech company start up offer brought the family to Utah - but 3 months ago that company was bought by a 100% remote company (remote even before COVID) so we are actively looking to move - but while in Vegas I did spreadsheets and data analysis for a number of professional bettors and absolutely fell in love with the art that is sports betting.

Today's game:

Berrios vs Singer

The Twins #1 starter vs Royals #5 starter - time for the Twins best pitcher to get things back on track.

  • Twins -161 means you would get paid $100 for every $161 you bet on the Twins to win today
  • Royals +148 means you would get paid $148 for every $100 you bet on the Royals to win today
  • Total = 9  (add the score of both teams - is it OVER 9 or UNDER 9)

My money today is on the Twins to win and cover the -1.5 run line. I'm going to stay away from betting on the total.

Twins have seen 6 games go over the Vegas total and 9 go under the total so far this season.  They went 82 over 76 under and 7 ties against the total last year.

Vegas odds before the season started:

  • 34.5 Wins (Tied for 3rd best with Astros behind Dodgers and Yankees)
  • +800 (meaning 8 to 1 - bet $100 get $900 back - winning $800)  to win the Pennant (4th behind Yankees, Astros, and Rays)
  • +1800 to win the World Series (Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Braves, Athletics with better odds at the time)

Vegas odds as of today:

  • 40 game win pace - 3 game losing streak not withstanding
  • +550 to win AL Pennant (2nd behind Yankees)
  • +1000 to win World Series (3rd behind Yankees and Dodgers)

Vegas sees the Twins as the team to beat in a weak Central division but a long shot to beat the Yankees in the postseason. Tell me if you heard that one before.........