Game 6 back at Houston. Normally this would be good news for Houston but in this world series the home team has lost every game. Does that continue today or is there a regression to the normal and Houston wins this one and the World Series? Strasburg vs. Verlander so should be a doozy of a pitching match-up.
Before Game 1, ZiPS had the Astros at 59.7% chance of winning. After Cole losing for the first time since the Nationals were bad, now the Nationals have a 57.8% chance of winning. However, the Astros still maintain a greater than 50% chance of winning every game of the series.
Game 1 of the 2019 World Series, Washington Nationals versus the Houston Astros. This one promises to be a series of excellent starting pitching on both sides and will be fun to see how each dominant starter matches up. Tonight Max Scherzer (who’s given up 1 earned run in 15 playoff innings this year) v. Gerrit Cole (who’s given up 1 earned run in 22.2 playoff innings this year). Which team will get to the pitcher first?
Fast forward through a pleasingly error-filled Yankees loss and that probability is now 92%. They also have an improbable 65% chance at winning it all. That unfortunately means another short series and lots of waiting until the World Series.