Tag Archives: Scott Baker

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 79: Twins v Trustee aka in re Dodgers

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Late night reports from Target field hint that the hometown 9 25 do indeed have a pulse. But questions remain:

Will the Twins win the series?
Does Jim Thome really watch reruns of the Mod Squad in the clubhouse?
Why haven't Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau hugged lately?
If Joe Nathan throws 93 mph from a train leaving Eighth Street, at what time does he arrive home?
Who the hell is Rubby De La Rosa, and why do I feel dirty when I say it out loud?
Will Nishioka eat grits?
Does Scott Baker look at the bullpen out of respect for Bert?
Will these questions ever be answered?

Pitching:
Rubby De La Rosa pitching against Twin's undeniable champion, ace, and all around nice guy, Scott Baker.

Lineups:

Twins:
1. Revere 8
2. Nishioka 6
3. _auer 2
4. Righthanded w/ power 9
5. Thome Bench spot saver
6. Dani 5
7. Hughes 3
8. Repko 7
9. Tolbot 4

Orphans:
1. Gwynn 7
2. Blake 5
3. Ethier 9
4. Dairy Brand 8
5. Lonely 3
6. Uribe 4
7. Thames DH
8. Navarro 2
9. Gordon 6

Go Twins!

2011 Twins Game Recaps

2011 Game 74 Recap: Twins 3, Brew Crew 4

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Weather: 67 degrees, cloudy
Wind: 12 mph, out to center
Time: 2:28
Attendance: 39,819

Box Score
Fangraphs

The Case of the Missing Mojo - Part II

The doll had no idea what she was getting into when she poured herself into my office on a dreary summer night a couple of weeks ago. Then again, I had no idea myself that the hunt for the Twins' mojo would take me from the Twin Cities to the sunny California coast and all the way back east to Brewtown. The name's Twayn. I'm a shamus.

I'd been on the case for two weeks, trying to find out who had the mojo, but this puzzler had more twists and turns than a barber pole. It seemed clear as gin at first - the starting rotation had to have it. Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn, they were pitching like a carnival barker - hard, fast, crooked and all night long. How else could you explain the way they've been dominating on the mound? Then in San Fran the offense took off like a Chinatown rocket, at least for an inning, so maybe they had the mojo. One thing was sure, there was no shortage of guys suddenly playing better than they were before the start of June.

Continue reading 2011 Game 74 Recap: Twins 3, Brew Crew 4 →

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 74: Twins at Brewers

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Scott Baker vs Randy Wolf

One thing that jumped out at me as I perused Light Rail's B-R page was his strikeout rate: 8.6 K/9. What? It did increase from 7.3 in 2009 to 7.8 in 2010, but I wasn't expecting another 0.8 jump. However, the season is just shy of 50% complete and so, how much of the increase is real? Fortunately, that was recently answered.

What we want is the K/(PA-IBB-HBP)* line, and that says at 126 denominator units, 50% is the player's ability and 50% is the mean. Baker has 369 PAs, which means 74.5% of the 8.6 K/9 is him while the other 25.5% would be regression to the mean. The mean we want would be Baker's historical performance with however much regression is needed.

Taking the last three years, Baker has 2240 PAs, which means we need 94.7% of those three years and 5.3% league average. Baker's three year average for those three years is 7.5 K/9, which is reasonably close to the league average of 6.8. Let's just use 100% Baker. More rounding error.

Putting it all together means the best estimate for his talent right now is 8.3 K/9. Combined with the miniscule (0.09) increase in his BB/9 rate equals good things for his results. His xFIP so far is easily his best yet and his FIP is slightly better than from 2008. Finally, an ace!

* I'm calling these PAs from now on, despite it actually not being a plate appearance. He has one intentional walk and four hit batters, so it's basically rounding error anyway.

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game #70: Twins 5, Padres 4

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Twins Record: 31-39
Fangraphs
MLB Game Wrap

Happy Father's Day to the WGOM Nation from Sunday Recap Central. Just imagine there's a picture of Butters Stotch hugging his dad or something right here.

Hitter of the Week: Even in a week during which the Twins win all their games, when two of those are 1-0 wins, picking this award gets a little tougher. Or, maybe it gets a little more obvious: Team MVP Michael Cuddyer seems to be the best candidate once again.
Pitcher of the Week: All the starters were good-to-great. I'll have to again pick Scott Baker as the best. He is this team's first half All-Star as far as I'm concerned.

2011 Twins Game Logs

Game 69: Padres at Mauers

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Back in game log 35, I made the statement "when the major leaguers on this team outnumber the minor leaguers, they might grab my interest again." In fairness, the scrubs started playing pretty well the last couple of weeks. It seemed for a little while there that I was marveling at the sheer wretchedness of that night's lineup every night, only to have them score a buttload of runs for our suddenly-rock-solid starting pitching staff.

That's all well and good, but now that things are gradually swinging back to "Minnesota Twins" rather than "Minnesota Red Wings", I'm finding myself genuinely excited by the team. Sure, we still have one too many players on the team named "Butera", and Jim Hoey is inexplicably still employed by a major league ballclub, but Tolbert is back to his rightful position as backup utility infielder! Dusty Hughes is elsewhere! Joe Mauer played in a major league game last night.

For all our pessimism earlier this season, we were still invested in just about every game. It looks like the Twins are ready to reward us.

Scott "All Star" Baker vs. Tim "Don't Look At My Record, Either" Stauffer

I expect Baker to have a very good game today, as he builds towards his All-Star resume (in vain, of course). I do not expect the same for his counterpart.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 59: Senators at Naps

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are 13-4 since May 20, when they began a three-game sweep of our boys (and 18-5 back to May 14. I just wanted to point that out, because through April, the Snakes were 28th in MLB in FIP (just ahead of the Twins) and 26th in pitching WAR (the Twins were dead last). Now Arizona is in the hunt in the NL West, a half-game back of SF, thanks to much improved pitching (they were middle-of-the-pack in FIP, xFIP and pitching WAR in May).

The Twins ride into Cleveland on the wings of a four-game sweep of the Landed Gentlemen. Not exactly the 1927 Yankees there, but a feel-good weekend nonetheless. But if the Twins are going to make a move, now is the time to get it started, with a series win against the surprise division leaders.

Pitching matchup:

Scott Baker (3.86 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 66:23 K:BB, 10 HR in 67 2/3)
Josh Tomlin (3.27 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 41:11 K:BB, 11 HR in 71 2/3)

Tomlin, a righty, has been riding the tiger in Cleveland. He's 7-2, thanks in significant part to best-in-the-majors run support (7.91 r/g), a .213 BAA and unsustainable .213 BABIP, despite not missing very many bats and having given up HRs at the same pace as our boy Scotty. He throws a pedestrian 2-seam fastball, cutter, curve and changeup and recently has been compared unfavorably to Phil Humber. If only we had some healthy, left-handed sluggers to put in the lineup against this Cinderella Story.... Go, Red Wings Rock Cats!!!111one111!!!

2011 Twins Game Recaps

Game #51: Angels 6, Twins 5

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Twins record: 17-34
Fangraphs
MLB Game Wrap

Not a lot to say. Dan Haren, even when he's not great, is pretty good. The Twins, this year, are not, and their infield defense today especially was not.

I feel kind of bad for Jim Hoey. I can't hate him. It's not his fault someone thought he was a decent trade return for a salary dump of a bona fide major league shortstop. It's not his fault someone thinks he's a major league quality relief pitcher, and it's not his fault that he keeps being asked to perform as one when it seems clear, right now, that he's not. When he came in the game in the top of the 9th today, the score was 5-3, and I figured that after he did his damage, the Twins were about to make it closer in the bottom of the 9th. They did, scoring two runs after Hoey gave up a home run to Mark Trumbo, the first batter he faced. It's been that kind of year.

Hitter of the Week: Denard Span
Pitcher of the Week: I ought to be more selective, but I can't, because suddenly it's the majority of the starting rotation that's keeping the Twins' heads anywhere close to above water. Nick Blackburn pitched a good game that he won, and Scott Baker and Anthony Swarzak pitched possibly even better games that they didn't win, earning them the undying ire of Twins broadcasters, but hopefully some respect from Twins fans.

2011 Twins Game Recaps, View from the Ballpark

2011 Game 39: Mariners 5, Twins 2

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Weather: "indoors"
Attendance: 14,859
Time: 2:31

Twins record: 12-27 (last in AL Central, 13.5 GB)
Fangraphs boxscore | MLB Game Wrap

"Highlights":

  • Highest WPA, hitter: Morneau .038 (1-4, SO) | Highest WPA, pitcher: Some band-aid whose name I've already forgotten .003 (1.1 IP, ER, 2 BB)

Lowlights:

  • Lowest WPA, hitter: Cuddyer, -.138 (1-4, R) | Lowest WPA, pitcher: Baker, -.172 (6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 8 SO, 4 ER)
  • Pretty much all of it.

Last night Scott Baker had a very Scott Baker-y outing. The Twins lost.

What else can I say about the game? I fell asleep after Pineda came out, it's now 2:30am, and I'm going to bed. If I've missed something important, talk about it below.

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This week's View from the Ballpark might be too easy, but I like the history behind it too much to let it go.

photo by Flickr user joshbousel

Over the years at least two former Twins have managed here. | photo by Flickr user joshbousel

Remember, no embiggening.

2011 Twins Game Logs

2011 Game 39: Twins at Mariners

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Finally, the Twins get to pick on somebody their own size. The Worst Team in Baseball is 12-256; the Mariners, 16-23 and in last place in the A.L. West, percentage points "up" on the Bitch Sox for second worst record in the A.L.

Seattle returns home from an 0-4 East Coast (err, Bal'more and Cleveland) trip that ended with consecutive rainouts. So they should be well rested.

Pitching matchup

Scott Baker (3.71 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 97 tRA+, 40:15 K:BB in 43 2/3) vs.
Michael Pineda (2.84 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 145 tRA+, 45:13 K:BB in 44 1/3)

The 22-year old rookie right-hander Pineda has been very effective to date, echoing his minor league performance (2.49 ERA, 396:93 K:BB in 404 1/3). He's a fastball-slider guy and, according to PitchFx, Pineda has a VERY live fastball (avg 95.1 MPH), with the slider coming in at 84.7. A right-handed F-Bomb??

Oh, and in case that wasn't discouraging enough, here's some salt in your wounds from the Yahoo preview:

Minnesota outfielder Delmon Young(notes) went 1 for 12 with seven strikeouts against Toronto over the weekend in his return from rib soreness that sidelined him nearly a month. Young is a .227 lifetime hitter at Safeco Field with 18 strikeouts in 66 at-bats.

Enjoy some West Coast baseball, kids. I will be at the Girl's violin lesson for most of this one.