While I was looking around for information on Shane Mack for Will's post the other day, I found this tidbit from The Globe and Mail, published 25 September 1993:
Walker may land with the Twins; Expo star will seek $4-million, which makes him trade bait
BY DANNY GALLAGHER
Special to The Globe and Mail
MONTREALThe Montreal Expos' Larry Walker could be playing for the Minnesota Twins next season.
Rumours have Walker involved in a three-way trade between the Expos, Twins and another team. Outfielder Shane Mack would apparently leave the Twins but it's not known what other players are involved.
"From what I hear, Minnesota is going to get Larry," said Pat Rooney, Walker's agent. "There have been a lot of rumblings about that."
Larry Walker in a Twins uniform would have truly been awesome. But how would those mid-1990s teams have changed with him on the roster? What if, by acquiring Walker, the Twins committed themselves to reloading in the wake of 1993's disappointment, and not to rebuilding?
First, there's the question of who the Twins might have traded to acquire Walker. Beyond that, however, do the Twins keep Walker beyond 1994, when he became a free agent? Where do you play Kirby Puckett in 1994 (and 1995)? Absent the grind of managing awful teams, does Tom Kelly keep managing beyond 2001? What do your 1994-2001 Twins look like?
Obviously, the big stumbling block to any kind of post-1993 success begins with pitching, which obtaining Larry Walker doesn't really solve.
And yes, this whole premise is wildly hypothetical.
The Twins never had above average pitching from 1993-2000, though they were really close in in 1998 (-.04 runs) and 1999 (-.02). Offense was slightly less of an issue through 1996; they were below average in 1993 (-.43) and 1995 (-.18), but average in 1994 (+.03) and 1996 (+.02).
This is hard to hypothesize, since factors in reloading instead of rebuilding would be current talent, how long they were under control, salary inflation, and revenue. I recall salary inflation was something like 10% or more per year in that era, so the limiting factor would be if revenue managed to keep pace. My guess is no, hence rebuild.
regarding hitting vs pitching -- the goal, as always, is to score more runs than the other team as frequently as possible. I'm pretty sure that can be accomplished either by improving the offense or improving the defense/pitching. The question in any given case is "which is easier to do?", which is driven by market considerations.
In 1993, the Twins ranked 11th of 14 AL teams in runs. They were 13th in OBP and 12th in SLG. The offense was B.A.D.
Of course, the pitching wasn't any better -- they were 13th in ERA and Hits Allowed, 12th in Runs Allowed.
In 1994, the Twins ranked 6th in runs, but last in ERA and Hits allowed, 13th in Runs Allowed.
In 1995, 10th in runs, last in ERA and runs allowed
In 1996, 8th in runs, 12th in ERA, 9th in runs allowed
In 1997, 10th in runs, 13th in ERA and runs allowed.
So, while the pitching most definitely sucked during the Dark Ages, the offense was pretty offensive too. IMNSHO, trading Mack for Walker could have been a huge winner for the franchise, depending on what else the Twins would have had to throw in.
Would it though? Mack had 1.1 rWAR in 1993 versus Walker's 4.2 rWAR, so that would have been great, but couldn't happen since the article happened after the trade deadline in 1993. For 1994, ignoring the whole "no postseason" part, Mack had 4.0 rWAR versus Walker's 4.4 rWAR. Essentially no change. In order for the trade to make sense, the Twins would have had to be able to keep him past 1994, which I'm not sure would have happened. The Twins already had a record contract from Puckett and adding another expensive player likely wasn't happening.
Easy - make signing Walker to a long-term deal contingent on the trade, and then send Montreal four mediocre minor leaguers in exchange! I'm pretty sure the Twins had a bevy of those to choose from in 1993.
At the time, I think minor league prospects weren't as highly thought of as they are now. It's plausible that the Twins really could have traded actual mediocre minor league players, rather than four prospects that have turned out to be mediocre at best. I suppose then it matters how much Larry wanted to reach free agency.
There's no way the Twins were going to sign Walker for $4mil/yr+ after the 1994 offseason with the strike unfortunately. Would have been fun to have Walker around for a year, but long-term I don't think it would have been useful.
Sure, but isn't it plausible that if they wanted him badly enough to trade for him that maybe they would have extended him once the trade was complete?
I doubt it. I see a decent Twins 1994 team being gutted and hurt by the strike just as much as the great 1994 Expos team.
Well if we suggest that it might have prevented the Twins from going into rebuild mode, that means they wouldn't have been competitive starting in 2001. And if they hadn't been competitive, we might have been looking at an even more serious contraction threat.
Thus, my conclusion is that if Larry Walker had joined the Twins it would have meant the destruction of the team.
Of course, Walker became a free agent after the 1994 season, just as did Mack. So, not much appetite for destruction there.
Okay, I didn't realize this, so in my comment below, assume that the Twins somehow managed to extend Walker before he became a free agent.
See my comment to sean re: how this wrinkle could have been worked out above.
I've always figured that the '94 strike hit the Twins especially hard. Any labor stoppage is going to make fans at least somewhat disgruntled, so wins are (at least by this theory) more important immediately after a strike to win the fans back. Attendance went from 2.5M in '93 to 1.1M in '95. Even adjusting for the shorter '95 season, that's a breathtaking drop in attendance. Larry Walker wouldn't have made the Twins a playoff contender in '95, but maybe he could have kept them from dropping back in the division race so quickly. As it was, 30 games into the season, the Twins were 10.5 games behind.
If we're entertaining hypotheticals, what happens if the Twins have Larry Walker and Kirby Puckett doesn't get hit by Dennis Martinez and doesn't have to retire due to glaucoma (not 100% sure these were related, but say both don't happen.) Then the Twins are going into '96 with Puckett projected at about 2.2 fWAR and Walker projected at about 4.7 fWAR. That potentially puts them in the wild card race. (Though admittedly, you probably have trouble finding enough PT for Becker, Puckett, Walker, Cordova, and Molitor.)
Anyway, a million different things could have happened, but it's an intriguing hypothetical. Walker and Puckett could potentially have had just enough impact to keep the Twins a lot more relevant, get more people to the park, and keep payroll high enough to help them be more competitive. I'm sure Brad Radke wouldn't have minded having Walker around.
And while that success would probably have meant no Joe Mauer, it's not like they could have done a whole lot worse in the first round from '96-'00. Michael Cuddyer was the only player of real value they actually signed from the first round over '96-'00. From '02-'06 they drafted way lower and even just Span and Garza have more total value than their '96-'00 haul.
Also, if we're entertaining hypotheticals... Say the Twins did stay competitive and Chuck Knoblauch stays in Minnesota, would his career have gone south so quickly? It doesn't seem far-fetched to think that he wouldn't have developed the Ankiels in Minnesota. Consider:
31.2 fWAR -- Roberto Alomar, age 22-28
35.7 fWAR -- Chuck Knoblauch, age 22-28
Of course, it's not like the Twins got nothing in return for Knoblauch, but maybe they wouldn't have needed Milton and Guzman so much if they had done a reasonable job with the draft over '96-'00.
Good question. My feeling is that keeping Knoblauch and Walker and Puckett would have probably meant using up money better delegated to filling out the rotation. Trading Knobbie for a couple of higher-level pitching prospects might have been a good idea, though obviously that creates a hole at second. Maybe Todd Walker doesn't wind up in TK's doghouse if the Twins aren't putrid?
If Knoblauch stays and the Twins are in contention, could Walker have been traded for pitching? Also, I think there's at least something to be said for maybe Knoblauch and Walker paying for themselves to some degree. I don't know what it would have cost to keep those two, but in '97, the Twins ran out a $34M payroll, but attendance slipped slightly and payroll went down to $28M, then attendance slipped more and payroll went down to $22M, then attendance slipped more and payroll went down to $18M. Even if the Twins had just had the attendance to keep their $34M payroll from '97 to '01, that's a lot of extra money to play with.
(Too many Walkers--that is, could Todd Walker have been traded for pitching and could Knoblauch and Larry Walker have paid for themselves by bringing more fans through the turnstiles.)
Trading Todd might have worked. My main concern about getting too entangled with Knoblauch would be the rather harsh aging curve for second basemen. But (I think) he was only 28 when he was traded, so four years probably would have been reasonable.
Yeah, Knoblauch was still young, even for someone who you might expect to age quickly. At the time, I think a 4-year deal would have been a reasonable gamble, on the right sized payroll.
Good point. If the Twins have Walker and Puckett, who plays right in 1994? Walker had the better arm, but he's younger and presumably more mobile than Puckett, which means he could probably cover more of left field. Then again, I seem to remember the lights in left were particularly hard to deal with, and presumably Puckett has the leg up on that with his experience catching balls in the gap out there.
Cordova gets left starting in 1995, and then by 1996 it's time to figure out who plays center, given that Lawton's bat pushes him into the everyday lineup.
Presumably Molitor plays first more than he did, and he and Puckett trade out time as DH. Puckett probably could play all three outfield positions for a couple more years as sort of a super 4th OF, giving TK the flexibility to rest Walker or sit a rookie against a tough pitcher.
Does Hrbek retire if there's a shot at contending for a few more years? As a part-time 1b/DH and lefthanded bench bat, he'd have improved the offensive depth.
I didn't realize that Molitor had gotten time at 1B, I guess you could probably find a way to juggle the playing time.
The Hrbek angle is interesting, too. He had a poor '94, but until '94, he'd never been below 2.1 fWAR. (That seems pretty crazy, actually, to have that many average or above seasons in a row.) I guess I'd be a little pessimistic about Hrbek because he seemed to rely a lot on old player skills, which generally don't age that well. As with all of these hypotheticals, you never really know, I guess.
My recollection is that he'd gotten fatter, less interested, and more injury-prone those last couple of years. He hit well for average in his last year (.270, compared to two straight years in the .240s), but didn't have much punch left (.420 SLG was the second-lowest of his career, ignoring his 1981 Cuppa). I think he was done regardless.
I think you are right.
Yeah, I seem to remember hammy issues, which most certainly could be weight-related. Still, he was remarkably flexible for his size.
The shoulder injury that he suffered flopping into third was a big problem.0
I had forgotten about that. I'll check what he says about retirement in his memoir.