Apparently falling behind 6-1 is not a good way to win a ballgame.
No, I'm not referring to the Twins, although it didn't work for them either. I'm referring to the Charlotte Stone Crabs, who had an even more difficult task trying to come back while facing one Jose Orlando Berrios of the Ft. Myers Miracle.
I normally recap the Twins' game on Fridays, but I figured there would be a lot more interest in one of the few shining stars in the Twins' system this year. Plus, I chose to spend the Fourth with my family and only saw the condensed game for the Twins.
Berrios just continues to dominate the Florida State League despite being just one of two 20-year-olds in the league. He won his first start in July, going 6 innings and allowing just one unearned run, after being named the FSL Player of the Month in June. Berrios was 4-1 with a 1.54 ERA in June. He had a 53/5 K/BB rate in 41 June innings.
On Friday, he wasn't quite as dominant, allowing six hits and a walk while striking out just four batters. It was the first time he had a WHIP of greater than 1.00 in a start since May 25, which was seven starts ago. It was also the first time in at least 11 starts that he had struck out fewer than one batter per inning pitched in a start.
The Stone Crabs managed to scratch out an early lead with a two-out run in the top of the first inning. Maxx Tissenbaum singled to score Thomas Coyle, who got into scoring position on a throwing error by Berrios on a pickoff attempt. That was all the Stone Crabs would get despite Berrios only having one 1-2-3 inning.
For a while it looked like that one run would be enough for Charlotte as Blake Snell had eight strikeouts and no hits allowed through four innings. Dalton Hicks ended the no-hit bid with a one-out double in the fifth. Thomas Coyle's two-out walk brought Former Twin Jorge Polanco to the plate. He tripled to give the Miracle a 2-1 lead.
The Miracle put the game away in the eighth with three straight walks to lead off the inning followed by a homer by Adam Walker. (If his name was Homer, would he have just walked?)
With the win, Berrios improved to 9-3 with a 1.96 ERA. He has a 109/23 K/BB rate in 96 1/3 innings. At the start of the season, Berrios was generally considered the fifth-best prospect in the Twins' system, behind Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart. I think it's pretty clear that Buxton has passed Stewart, given that Berrios is dominating more at a level above Stewart, who is doing fine at Cedar Rapids but just hasn't shown the high K rate that has been expected of him.
I think Berrios has passed even Alex Meyer, who was injured last year and has been held to a strict pitch count in AAA and has been good but not great at AAA. Meyer is also more than 4 years older than Berrios.
Given the torn UCL suffered by Sano, an argument could be made that Berrios has passed him as well. They both could end the year in AA New Britain with Sano being a year older.
And an argument could even be made to put Berrios in the top spot ahead of Buxton since Berrios could reach New Britain before Buxton, who was drafted one round ahead of Berrios in 2012.
My guess is most experts will have Berrios third or fourth in the Twins' system at the midseason rankings. He'll get moved up even more if he continues to dominate, especially if he is moved up to New Britain.
Of course, the question remains, why isn't he at New Britain already? It's halfway past the midpoint of the season and Ft. Myers has already clinched a playoff spot. That is usually when the Twins move players up to the next level.
I'm guessing it has a lot to do with Berrios' age and lack of experience. Before he was drafted, Berrios was mostly a shortstop for his dad's travel ball team and his high school didn't have a baseball team (which in Puerto Rico means it didn't have any sports teams). He didn't become a starting pitcher until the last year or so before the draft after being told he would be picked sooner as a pitcher.
After being drafted, Berrios only pitched about 30 innings in 2012. He then pitched just over 100 innings last year when he struggled with his endurance in the second half.
At Ft. Myers and below, the Twins have all their teams on six-man pitching staffs. That changes to five-man staffs at New Britain. The Twins may be wanting to build up Berrios' innings this year before subjecting him to pitching every fifth day.
The other issue may be the sort of stuff that doesn't show up in a box score but the Twins will want cleaned up before advancing a player. That would be things like holding runners and making pickoff throws (Berrios had a bad pickoff on Friday), fielding his position, backing up bases, etc. I have no idea if Berrios has struggled in this area (he is a former shortstop), but it would seem likely that someone that didn't pitch much as an amateur would be more likely to struggle in such things.
The good news is that with Berrios not pitching much as an amateur, there is much less wear and tear than the typical player drafted as a pitcher. It also makes what he's done at such a young age all the more exciting.
I wonder sometimes if the Twins have had so little success with prospects in recent years that they now operate out of a fear of failure, rather than an expectation of success. This leads them to hold players down longer than they should, because they want to be very careful that everything is just right before they move someone up. This can lead to their fear becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as staying at a lower level too long can slow a player's development if not halt it completely.
I'm not sure I believe this theory. There are certainly exceptions, the most obvious being Aaron Hicks. I'm not sure I totally disbelieve it either, though. In any event, I'd like to see the Twins show more confidence in their young players and move them up more aggressively. If they're not ready, they'll learn what they need to improve. But some of them might be ready. The only way you can really find out is to give them a chance.
I don't know -- they gave Polanco a sniff of the bigs, so I'm not sure it's that. My first thought was what Socal also suggested -- he's a great raw pitcher, but he's not adapted entirely to the position yet.
Polanco was an emergency situation that they knew would only be a few days. They decided they would let a too young player sit on the bench for a couple days instead of risk losing someone that they would have to put through waivers.