I have nothing to say about the Diamondback series.
77 thoughts on “May 23, 2011: New Brew”
What Diamondback series?
yeah, i don't remember anything about that either.
For those wondering what happened to yesterday's Minor Details, WordPress had a hiccup and missed publishing it. I noticed yesterday evening and published it retroactively.
Man vs. Computer, Round 3. I lost by TKO.
The freezer trick did not work. My Maxtor data drive is foobarred. So, the next question is how much I am willing to pay a data recovery outfit to try to recover my tax records and a bunch of pictures of preschoolers taken by the Mrs. at her job. Boo.
Bummer. Sometimes Tech sucks.
Yuck. How guaranteed is the data recovery service? Not that you have a whole lot of options other than just hope you don't get audited, I guess.
Maxtor claims another victim. On a positive note they don't exist anymore.
So Maxtor is really bad? I think that's what my external drive is. Should I replace it now, while I still have access to those files?
Well, in their semi-defense, my machine is ~4-5 years old and has run almost continuously over that time. I basically never turned it off (and had BOINC running 24-7). Plus, it was in a hutch-like cabinet (meant for computers) in the home desk. I removed the door to the cabinet, but it was still pretty warm in there.
The real answer is that every hard drive fails eventually. My mistake was in not doing regular backups of important data. It was just stoopid of me not to have backed up my tax information, and unfortunate that I had not backed up a bunch of family and for-the-Mrs's-work photos.
One of the most surprising things I have heard is that hard drives fail following an exponential distribution, meaning that the failures aren't dependent on time (i.e., they're random). This was gleaned from a reliability report from one of the major hard drive manufacturers and collaborated by some of my co-workers who used to work in that field.
Basically, back up early and often, and you'll be good.
I had one Maxtor drive and it worked fine until croaking of old age. They have a bit of a reputation, but I think every hard drive company has a few people that hold grudges against it.
Since I haven't seen this mentioned yet, what sound does the failed hard drive make? Probably the servos failed meaning the platters are still fine. Plus, the drive is so old the data recovery place could read it with some good magnifying glasses.
originally, I would hear some clicking sounds before I got the "F U, I'm not booting" messages. In machine 2, with the foobarred data drive in as slave (or both set up as cable select and the data drive in the slave position), I just hear two little beeps before the "hit F1" message. It doesn't sound like it is even spinning up. No change in sound from doing the freezer trick.
Plus, the drive is so old the data recovery place could read it with some good magnifying glasses.
SWEEEET!
My video card died so had both data recovery services done and purchased the 500GB external HD they saved my information to at BB. I paid $160 for the work. However, they're citing $250 online for "Level 1" recovery services. Maybe that's the reason they missed about half of my music and all of my pictures. When I took the laptop back for a second try at the music and pics, they did the same thing (but didn't charge me) and got the same result. I ended up purchasing this hoping that the HD is in good working condition and I can get the files myself. I haven't had the time to use it yet so I don't know if my "at-home data recovery" will work. Perhaps I'll try this weekend and let you know.
Yea, that "Level 1" service reads like "for $250 we will undelete stuff that you've trashed and don't know enough to look in the trash bin to recover yourself."
We're all going to get tickets on our own for the KC-Twins game, right?
Also, GH if you want to go, we could carpool from WDM.
I'll be buying my ticket tonight.
I think I would barely be the most northerly visitor, meaning if there's anyone between Minneapolis and there that wants a cheap ride, I'm available.
Yeah, tickets on your own, unfortunately.
I'll pass out my cell # before hand so folks can meet up beforehand in the parking lot for brats & bull. I believe the parking lot will open at 10AM.
I was looking through StubHub today. Some LF box seats for ~$30 look good. This could possibly be my only MLB game this year, so might as well make it a nice one.
aarongleeman Not surprising, but it sounds like the Twins are going to trade Kevin Slowey - http://bit.ly/lkq5cq
what's the O/U on how happy we'll be with the results of this?
I imagine we will get a middling reliever, but if we're lucky we'll get two.
@fakebillsmith: We couldn't turn Slowey into a mediocre relief pitcher, so we're going to trade him for one. That's the plan, anyway.
I'd guess Slowey's had enough of an injury history that the returns will not be great. And I think the Twins will be short a starter down the stretch, though I think the chances of them competing down the stretch, while non-zero, are not great (obviously.)
If they were able to get back equal value in a trade, I'd say do it, because the Twins don't seem to value Slowey's skills/personality/whatever that highly. Ideally, we'd trade for someone under-appreciated on his own team, but that's less likely than trading for someone who is fairly valued.
There is the risk that Slowey just can't stay healthy for a full season, which imposes real difficulties on assembling the rest of the rotation. I'd probably be happiest if we trade for a decent middle infielder, in something like the Buchanan-for-Bartlett trade.
Not walking people just isn't sexy anymore.
Well, Slowey isn't doing much for us right now, but that's really not his fault. As long as Smith doesn't trade him to some team where it's going to haunt us for years (Yankees), may as well get something for a pitcher that Gardy doesn't get along with.
Trading him to the Yankees would be kind of funny, just to see how many home runs he'd allow pitching in Yankee stadium.
I like Slowey as much as the next guy, but his whole "I can't pitch when you want me to pitch" BS has really screwed the team up this year. He has to go. And if/when they don't get full return for him, everyone will blame BS, which would be BS, because Slowey backed the team into a corner with this nonsense.
I'd say the screws in his wrist, the bursitis in his shoulder, and never being used like a reliever* is more at fault than Slowey refusing to pitch. Especially since at the beginning of the year, there were quotes from him about being willing to try work as a reliever.
* All of his relief appearances were him starting an inning to replace the starter.
I'm sorry, but Gardy is right here. It's Slowey's job to adjust to pitching in the bullpen. Deeming himself available only every 5 days because he can't "get loose" is nonsense.
Most relievers are nothing more than failed starters in the first instance. Duensing was brought through the system as a starter, then made the team as a reliever and instead of whining about not being a starter, he adjusted and became a really effective reliever. Slowey should be able to do the same.
It's hard for me as an outside observer to say that Slowey is a totally bad actor here. For one, I have no idea the extent to which he was in pain or injured, and he's been out of commission enough in the past to fear for losing his potential big payday. For another, he's been objectively effective enough as a starter to be a little miffed at being moved to the bullpen. In his shoes, I would probably (privately, definitely behind closed doors) ask politely if the Twins could find me a starting job somewhere else. Ballplayers are in a weird position labor-wise. If I wanted to move jobs, I'd just need to give notice and I could go somewhere else. Because players get locked into teams, it's hard for them to change jobs, like say from reliever to starter, even if there are employers (teams) out there who would be more than willing to employ them in their desired role. Players aren't even allowed the choice of taking a lower-paying job because they feel it will give them a better long-term chance to maximize their income.
From what I can surmise, this seems to be the situation:
1) Twins decide to move Slowey to the bullpen
2) Slowey probably asks (quietly, behind closed doors) for a trade so that he can start
3) Someone leaks to the press that Slowey is on the market
4) This becomes a media topic, which makes everything more awkward
5) Slowey has troubles staying healthy in the 'pen, which isn't really different than his troubles staying healthy as a starter, so I don't really buy that he's been complaining just to force a trade. It's possible, but I just don't have enough inside information to make that leap, and since he's never been durable, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
What's at fault is the team deciding in February (or earlier) that one of its five best starting pitchers shouldn't be in the rotation.
Dido.
I think they decided that on March 7, 2010.
????
Slowey started five games in April in 2010. So obviously I'm missing the joak.
btw, his similar pitchers lists on b-r are pretty funny.
The Twins signed Blackburn to his extension then.
Good call. He's the Twins leader in innings pitched, wins, winning percentage, ERA, tied for the lead in WAR, and the only starter with an ERA+ over 100 (113). Do I think he's even close to being the most talented Twins pitcher? No, but I believe he is one of those players who gets the most out of his limited abilities and that makes it easy for me to root for the guy.
PS - he also leads Twins starters in assists and is the only one to take part in a double play. Tied with Baker for the best caught stealing rate - 50%.
If Blackburn's GB% this year holds up, it'll be his career best. I think he and Slowey share a weakness in that when eventually they start declining, I think their decline will be rapid and severe. Slowey because he relies so much on his control, and the fly balls allowed could get the best of him, and Blackburn because he has trouble missing bats.
Dave Cameron compared Blackburn to Silva when Silva left Minnesota, on the merits of Blackburn's sinker. Blackburn hasn't lived in the strike zone the way that Silva did, but both have had mid-4 FIP's with high groundball rates. I think the comparison largely holds, and Silva's decline is what I fear for Blackburn.
I feel like it's an under-studied area of pitching to see if different styles tend to be more or less effective against good hitters. My gut feeling is that it's great to have some mid-rotation starters like Blackburn around during the regular season, but in the post-season, against a lineup that can really mash, you will pay for not missing bats. My gut feelings can be misleading, though, especially depending on what I ate for breakfast.
I think he's performing exactly where his "limited abilities" say he should, which is a little over five standard deviations better than the average person.
Although the comment was snark, I think that is the point where it's easy to say the Twins picked who they liked out of Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey. And although Baker also has a contract, I think it's pretty clear the Twins still like Blackburn best.
Wins and winning percentage mean nothing on their own. ERA (and ERA+ as an extension) is extremely limited as well. Blackburn is tied for the most rWAR with Baker (and Perkins), but trails those two, Pavano, and Duensing in fWAR. Among the five regular starters this season, his xFIP trails Baker and Duensing, his FIP trails all but Liriano, and his tERA is worse than all four. Those are all stronger indicators of how he himself has pitched, and what to expect going forward, than his ERA or ERA+.
Again, I am not making Blackie out to be the staff savior, just making the point that he's a decent pitcher who often seems to succeed a little more than his peripherals suggest he should. And I am reacting as much to comments on other sites (Strib, etc.) that act as if it's a travesty that he's on an MLB roster at all as I am to the comments in this thread.
The Twins signed Blackburn to his extension then.
Ahh.
I seem to recall that Slowey and Baker were said to be in competition for the 5th rotation spot this spring....
Oh, and perhaps amusing only to me, but the only Twins pitchers to have accumulated positive pRAA to date (per Statcorner) are Dunce, Perkins and Slowey.
Slick Castleman is indeed an amusing name. But I don't think that's what you mean.
Just don't trade him within the division please.
Does Lew Ford's Long Island team need any help?
Silver Lining?
Depending on the returns, this could create a 40-man opening for Chuck James.
Tom Powers has considerately relieved me of any need to ever read a column bearing his byline again:
Wilson Ramos to Washington for Matt Capps. If this trade were a movie, it would be one of those convoluted Swedish art house dramas. There are so many elements at work here. This is where some of Smith's bad luck has come in. Capps has been a lifesaver two years in a row. Who knew Joe Mauer would physically collapse, leaving a giant hole at catcher?
Conclusion: The Twins would not have won the division last season without Capps, who is durable and uncomplaining. But if he leaves via free agency, it will sting to see young Ramos starring for the Nationals. But I'd still make this trade.
In a related decision, I'm probably going to stop following links on MLB Trade Rumors.
It is an interesting coincidence that Powers' conclusion is almost identical to what Bill Smith said of the deal at the SABR meeting a few weekends ago.
[Tom Powers furiously typing, as Bill Smith, arm up Powers' back, drinks a glass of water and smiles.jpg]
Move over Michael Cuddyer, Matt Capps was your true 2010 Twins MVP.
The wildly inconsistent Young carried the Twins for long stretches last season. He is a liability in left field and still has some maturing to do. But he's just 25.
This gem was also in the same article (I thought I saw someone here link to it a while back). If we had a team full of Capps, Cuddyer and Young clones, we'd probably never lose a game.
The article ran yesterday, but the "nobody doubts his talent!" thing is perpetual.
I could've sworn I saw that exact quote (the bolded part) on a link here recently. Maybe Bill Smith said it at the SABR convention as well.
I think you're thinking of what Dan Barreiro said on the radio.
Powers is over-egging the pudding, but there are hints of truth there. As I've said before, I wouldn't have made the move, because I don't particularly like Capps as a reliever, but the Twins--especially under Terry Ryan--have consistently been criticized in the past for not making any "win-now" deals when the team was doing well. This was absolutely a win-now move. Even if Capps only helped the Twins win a couple games last year, those could have been the two wins that got the Twins to the World Series. Their marginal value could have been very high. Ramos' marginal value to the team could have been pretty low, had Mauer stayed healthy.
For better or for worse, Smith isn't really doing the player evaluations, he's relying on guys like Terry Ryan for that. So in his mind, he's been told Capps is a great reliever, and probably that Ramos has some issues that the Twins aren't sure he'll overcome, and
Also, for a moment, consider a not far-fetched hypothetical situation. The Twins don't do the Capps trade last year, the bullpen blows a few leads, and the Twins miss the playoffs. We enter 2011, Mauer goes down, Ramos gets called up, and Ramos hits .180/.263/.340 in April (which is what Ramos has hit in May so far.) The whole team is struggling, and fans get restless because why didn't we trade Ramos last year for some bullpen help when we had the chance to win it?
In an illiquid market, if you have an immediate demand, you're going to pay a premium to get it. Terry Ryan essentially wasn't willing to pay that premium, and it worked great to keep the Twins contending from year to year. With a bigger budget and sold-out crowds, Bill Smith wanted to win now and he paid the premium. I'm not going to say he's some kind of genius for doing it, but if you tone down Powers' hyperbole, I think you can reach a conclusion that the reasoning behind Smith's move was ... reasonable. (Vocabulary failure.)
Former prospect Wilson Ramos was addition by subtraction, as many former teammates say he was a bad clubhouse guy.
This is from Jim Mandelaro (the guy Torii Hunter went after), who is the beat writer for Red Wings and has little contact with the Twins front office and no reason to "buy the company line."
I enjoyed him saying that Nieto is playing without a full deck. 😉
Oh, and that guy is obviously not an MLB-caliber beat reporter. He's waaay too forthright.
Well, it is a blog and he is talking about a guy after he left and he's writing for Red Wings fans, not necessarily Twins fans.
HAPPY GAGA DAY! No one is interested but you can get the album for 99 cents at Amazon.
Knock the price down a couple more bucks and I am all over that.
On Friday I asked who would get more hits in the AZ series, the Twins' catchers or pitchers. The answer is (no surprise) at tie; two hits for each position. Go hurlers!
Even a tie for XBH.
Both one more hit than we had from shortstop and matched what we got from second base.
HBT power rankings: Cleveland is on pace to win 107 games! This team is a lock to win the AL Central now.
You heard it here first. This division is wrapped up on May 23 because there is no way the Indians will play less than .500 baseball from here on out despite them playing .414 baseball over the previous two seasons.
A lock?! Hardball Times, you are better than this.
If you read what Craig actually wrote:
1. Indians (5): They’re on pace to win 107 games. Even if they go .500 the rest of the way they’re an 87-88 win team. Does anyone think that won’t win the AL Central?
It's a bit tamer. If you read what Craig wrote at the beginning of the season about his power rankings, you would realize he bases the rankings off what the team has done over the last few weeks. And they're not serious at all.
Okay, I didn't actually head over. That's a lot more reasonable.
The quote was from a teaser on the RSS feed, so it may have been an editor that wrote that part.
Home improvement update: I have succeeded in removing all traces of shelf paper from my cabinets only using 3 cans of klean strip. I've sanded, scraped, and sworn at every inch of my kitchen interior and have emerged victorious. Next duty as assigned ---> replace master bathroom vanity.
It's going to take a lot of klean strip, sanding, and scraping to remove the old master bathroom vanity. Best of luck to you.
depends on how vain the old master was.
Thome in the lineup tonight against the lefty. Cuddyer at second and Kubel in right. Butera catching, batting ninth. It sure looks more impressive than the Mariners' lineup.
I did not know that Thome was back. w00t!
Luke Hughes and Ben Revere were sent down last night when Thome and his caddy, Jason Repko, were called up.
What Diamondback series?
yeah, i don't remember anything about that either.
For those wondering what happened to yesterday's Minor Details, WordPress had a hiccup and missed publishing it. I noticed yesterday evening and published it retroactively.
Man vs. Computer, Round 3. I lost by TKO.
The freezer trick did not work. My Maxtor data drive is foobarred. So, the next question is how much I am willing to pay a data recovery outfit to try to recover my tax records and a bunch of pictures of preschoolers taken by the Mrs. at her job. Boo.
Bummer. Sometimes Tech sucks.
Yuck. How guaranteed is the data recovery service? Not that you have a whole lot of options other than just hope you don't get audited, I guess.
Maxtor claims another victim. On a positive note they don't exist anymore.
So Maxtor is really bad? I think that's what my external drive is. Should I replace it now, while I still have access to those files?
Well, in their semi-defense, my machine is ~4-5 years old and has run almost continuously over that time. I basically never turned it off (and had BOINC running 24-7). Plus, it was in a hutch-like cabinet (meant for computers) in the home desk. I removed the door to the cabinet, but it was still pretty warm in there.
The real answer is that every hard drive fails eventually. My mistake was in not doing regular backups of important data. It was just stoopid of me not to have backed up my tax information, and unfortunate that I had not backed up a bunch of family and for-the-Mrs's-work photos.
One of the most surprising things I have heard is that hard drives fail following an exponential distribution, meaning that the failures aren't dependent on time (i.e., they're random). This was gleaned from a reliability report from one of the major hard drive manufacturers and collaborated by some of my co-workers who used to work in that field.
Basically, back up early and often, and you'll be good.
some interesting datums here, here, and here.
I had one Maxtor drive and it worked fine until croaking of old age. They have a bit of a reputation, but I think every hard drive company has a few people that hold grudges against it.
Since I haven't seen this mentioned yet, what sound does the failed hard drive make? Probably the servos failed meaning the platters are still fine. Plus, the drive is so old the data recovery place could read it with some good magnifying glasses.
originally, I would hear some clicking sounds before I got the "F U, I'm not booting" messages. In machine 2, with the foobarred data drive in as slave (or both set up as cable select and the data drive in the slave position), I just hear two little beeps before the "hit F1" message. It doesn't sound like it is even spinning up. No change in sound from doing the freezer trick.
Plus, the drive is so old the data recovery place could read it with some good magnifying glasses.
SWEEEET!
My video card died so had both data recovery services done and purchased the 500GB external HD they saved my information to at BB. I paid $160 for the work. However, they're citing $250 online for "Level 1" recovery services. Maybe that's the reason they missed about half of my music and all of my pictures. When I took the laptop back for a second try at the music and pics, they did the same thing (but didn't charge me) and got the same result. I ended up purchasing this hoping that the HD is in good working condition and I can get the files myself. I haven't had the time to use it yet so I don't know if my "at-home data recovery" will work. Perhaps I'll try this weekend and let you know.
Yea, that "Level 1" service reads like "for $250 we will undelete stuff that you've trashed and don't know enough to look in the trash bin to recover yourself."
We're all going to get tickets on our own for the KC-Twins game, right?
Also, GH if you want to go, we could carpool from WDM.
I'll be buying my ticket tonight.
I think I would barely be the most northerly visitor, meaning if there's anyone between Minneapolis and there that wants a cheap ride, I'm available.
Yeah, tickets on your own, unfortunately.
I'll pass out my cell # before hand so folks can meet up beforehand in the parking lot for brats & bull. I believe the parking lot will open at 10AM.
I was looking through StubHub today. Some LF box seats for ~$30 look good. This could possibly be my only MLB game this year, so might as well make it a nice one.
what's the O/U on how happy we'll be with the results of this?
I imagine we will get a middling reliever, but if we're lucky we'll get two.
@fakebillsmith: We couldn't turn Slowey into a mediocre relief pitcher, so we're going to trade him for one. That's the plan, anyway.
I'd guess Slowey's had enough of an injury history that the returns will not be great. And I think the Twins will be short a starter down the stretch, though I think the chances of them competing down the stretch, while non-zero, are not great (obviously.)
If they were able to get back equal value in a trade, I'd say do it, because the Twins don't seem to value Slowey's skills/personality/whatever that highly. Ideally, we'd trade for someone under-appreciated on his own team, but that's less likely than trading for someone who is fairly valued.
There is the risk that Slowey just can't stay healthy for a full season, which imposes real difficulties on assembling the rest of the rotation. I'd probably be happiest if we trade for a decent middle infielder, in something like the Buchanan-for-Bartlett trade.
Not walking people just isn't sexy anymore.
Well, Slowey isn't doing much for us right now, but that's really not his fault. As long as Smith doesn't trade him to some team where it's going to haunt us for years (Yankees), may as well get something for a pitcher that Gardy doesn't get along with.
Trading him to the Yankees would be kind of funny, just to see how many home runs he'd allow pitching in Yankee stadium.
I like Slowey as much as the next guy, but his whole "I can't pitch when you want me to pitch" BS has really screwed the team up this year. He has to go. And if/when they don't get full return for him, everyone will blame BS, which would be BS, because Slowey backed the team into a corner with this nonsense.
I'd say the screws in his wrist, the bursitis in his shoulder, and never being used like a reliever* is more at fault than Slowey refusing to pitch. Especially since at the beginning of the year, there were quotes from him about being willing to try work as a reliever.
* All of his relief appearances were him starting an inning to replace the starter.
I'm sorry, but Gardy is right here. It's Slowey's job to adjust to pitching in the bullpen. Deeming himself available only every 5 days because he can't "get loose" is nonsense.
Most relievers are nothing more than failed starters in the first instance. Duensing was brought through the system as a starter, then made the team as a reliever and instead of whining about not being a starter, he adjusted and became a really effective reliever. Slowey should be able to do the same.
It's hard for me as an outside observer to say that Slowey is a totally bad actor here. For one, I have no idea the extent to which he was in pain or injured, and he's been out of commission enough in the past to fear for losing his potential big payday. For another, he's been objectively effective enough as a starter to be a little miffed at being moved to the bullpen. In his shoes, I would probably (privately, definitely behind closed doors) ask politely if the Twins could find me a starting job somewhere else. Ballplayers are in a weird position labor-wise. If I wanted to move jobs, I'd just need to give notice and I could go somewhere else. Because players get locked into teams, it's hard for them to change jobs, like say from reliever to starter, even if there are employers (teams) out there who would be more than willing to employ them in their desired role. Players aren't even allowed the choice of taking a lower-paying job because they feel it will give them a better long-term chance to maximize their income.
From what I can surmise, this seems to be the situation:
1) Twins decide to move Slowey to the bullpen
2) Slowey probably asks (quietly, behind closed doors) for a trade so that he can start
3) Someone leaks to the press that Slowey is on the market
4) This becomes a media topic, which makes everything more awkward
5) Slowey has troubles staying healthy in the 'pen, which isn't really different than his troubles staying healthy as a starter, so I don't really buy that he's been complaining just to force a trade. It's possible, but I just don't have enough inside information to make that leap, and since he's never been durable, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
What's at fault is the team deciding in February (or earlier) that one of its five best starting pitchers shouldn't be in the rotation.
Dido.
I think they decided that on March 7, 2010.
????
Slowey started five games in April in 2010. So obviously I'm missing the joak.
btw, his similar pitchers lists on b-r are pretty funny.
The Twins signed Blackburn to his extension then.
Good call. He's the Twins leader in innings pitched, wins, winning percentage, ERA, tied for the lead in WAR, and the only starter with an ERA+ over 100 (113). Do I think he's even close to being the most talented Twins pitcher? No, but I believe he is one of those players who gets the most out of his limited abilities and that makes it easy for me to root for the guy.
PS - he also leads Twins starters in assists and is the only one to take part in a double play. Tied with Baker for the best caught stealing rate - 50%.
If Blackburn's GB% this year holds up, it'll be his career best. I think he and Slowey share a weakness in that when eventually they start declining, I think their decline will be rapid and severe. Slowey because he relies so much on his control, and the fly balls allowed could get the best of him, and Blackburn because he has trouble missing bats.
Dave Cameron compared Blackburn to Silva when Silva left Minnesota, on the merits of Blackburn's sinker. Blackburn hasn't lived in the strike zone the way that Silva did, but both have had mid-4 FIP's with high groundball rates. I think the comparison largely holds, and Silva's decline is what I fear for Blackburn.
I feel like it's an under-studied area of pitching to see if different styles tend to be more or less effective against good hitters. My gut feeling is that it's great to have some mid-rotation starters like Blackburn around during the regular season, but in the post-season, against a lineup that can really mash, you will pay for not missing bats. My gut feelings can be misleading, though, especially depending on what I ate for breakfast.
I think he's performing exactly where his "limited abilities" say he should, which is a little over five standard deviations better than the average person.
Although the comment was snark, I think that is the point where it's easy to say the Twins picked who they liked out of Baker, Blackburn, and Slowey. And although Baker also has a contract, I think it's pretty clear the Twins still like Blackburn best.
Wins and winning percentage mean nothing on their own. ERA (and ERA+ as an extension) is extremely limited as well. Blackburn is tied for the most rWAR with Baker (and Perkins), but trails those two, Pavano, and Duensing in fWAR. Among the five regular starters this season, his xFIP trails Baker and Duensing, his FIP trails all but Liriano, and his tERA is worse than all four. Those are all stronger indicators of how he himself has pitched, and what to expect going forward, than his ERA or ERA+.
Again, I am not making Blackie out to be the staff savior, just making the point that he's a decent pitcher who often seems to succeed a little more than his peripherals suggest he should. And I am reacting as much to comments on other sites (Strib, etc.) that act as if it's a travesty that he's on an MLB roster at all as I am to the comments in this thread.
The Twins signed Blackburn to his extension then.
Ahh.
I seem to recall that Slowey and Baker were said to be in competition for the 5th rotation spot this spring....
Oh, and perhaps amusing only to me, but the only Twins pitchers to have accumulated positive pRAA to date (per Statcorner) are Dunce, Perkins and Slowey.
Slick Castleman is indeed an amusing name. But I don't think that's what you mean.
Just don't trade him within the division please.
Does Lew Ford's Long Island team need any help?
Silver Lining?
Depending on the returns, this could create a 40-man opening for Chuck James.
Tom Powers has considerately relieved me of any need to ever read a column bearing his byline again:
In a related decision, I'm probably going to stop following links on MLB Trade Rumors.
It is an interesting coincidence that Powers' conclusion is almost identical to what Bill Smith said of the deal at the SABR meeting a few weekends ago.
[Tom Powers furiously typing, as Bill Smith, arm up Powers' back, drinks a glass of water and smiles.jpg]
Move over Michael Cuddyer, Matt Capps was your true 2010 Twins MVP.
This gem was also in the same article (I thought I saw someone here link to it a while back). If we had a team full of Capps, Cuddyer and Young clones, we'd probably never lose a game.
The article ran yesterday, but the "nobody doubts his talent!" thing is perpetual.
I could've sworn I saw that exact quote (the bolded part) on a link here recently. Maybe Bill Smith said it at the SABR convention as well.
I think you're thinking of what Dan Barreiro said on the radio.
Powers is over-egging the pudding, but there are hints of truth there. As I've said before, I wouldn't have made the move, because I don't particularly like Capps as a reliever, but the Twins--especially under Terry Ryan--have consistently been criticized in the past for not making any "win-now" deals when the team was doing well. This was absolutely a win-now move. Even if Capps only helped the Twins win a couple games last year, those could have been the two wins that got the Twins to the World Series. Their marginal value could have been very high. Ramos' marginal value to the team could have been pretty low, had Mauer stayed healthy.
For better or for worse, Smith isn't really doing the player evaluations, he's relying on guys like Terry Ryan for that. So in his mind, he's been told Capps is a great reliever, and probably that Ramos has some issues that the Twins aren't sure he'll overcome, and
Also, for a moment, consider a not far-fetched hypothetical situation. The Twins don't do the Capps trade last year, the bullpen blows a few leads, and the Twins miss the playoffs. We enter 2011, Mauer goes down, Ramos gets called up, and Ramos hits .180/.263/.340 in April (which is what Ramos has hit in May so far.) The whole team is struggling, and fans get restless because why didn't we trade Ramos last year for some bullpen help when we had the chance to win it?
In an illiquid market, if you have an immediate demand, you're going to pay a premium to get it. Terry Ryan essentially wasn't willing to pay that premium, and it worked great to keep the Twins contending from year to year. With a bigger budget and sold-out crowds, Bill Smith wanted to win now and he paid the premium. I'm not going to say he's some kind of genius for doing it, but if you tone down Powers' hyperbole, I think you can reach a conclusion that the reasoning behind Smith's move was ... reasonable. (Vocabulary failure.)
This is from Jim Mandelaro (the guy Torii Hunter went after), who is the beat writer for Red Wings and has little contact with the Twins front office and no reason to "buy the company line."
I enjoyed him saying that Nieto is playing without a full deck. 😉
Oh, and that guy is obviously not an MLB-caliber beat reporter. He's waaay too forthright.
Well, it is a blog and he is talking about a guy after he left and he's writing for Red Wings fans, not necessarily Twins fans.
HAPPY GAGA DAY! No one is interested but you can get the album for 99 cents at Amazon.
Knock the price down a couple more bucks and I am all over that.
On Friday I asked who would get more hits in the AZ series, the Twins' catchers or pitchers. The answer is (no surprise) at tie; two hits for each position. Go hurlers!
Even a tie for XBH.
Both one more hit than we had from shortstop and matched what we got from second base.
The latest Icelandic volcano eruption as seen from space.
wow.
That's pretty spectacular.
You heard it here first. This division is wrapped up on May 23 because there is no way the Indians will play less than .500 baseball from here on out despite them playing .414 baseball over the previous two seasons.
A lock?! Hardball Times, you are better than this.
If you read what Craig actually wrote:
It's a bit tamer. If you read what Craig wrote at the beginning of the season about his power rankings, you would realize he bases the rankings off what the team has done over the last few weeks. And they're not serious at all.
Okay, I didn't actually head over. That's a lot more reasonable.
The quote was from a teaser on the RSS feed, so it may have been an editor that wrote that part.
Home improvement update: I have succeeded in removing all traces of shelf paper from my cabinets only using 3 cans of klean strip. I've sanded, scraped, and sworn at every inch of my kitchen interior and have emerged victorious. Next duty as assigned ---> replace master bathroom vanity.
It's going to take a lot of klean strip, sanding, and scraping to remove the old master bathroom vanity. Best of luck to you.
depends on how vain the old master was.
Thome in the lineup tonight against the lefty. Cuddyer at second and Kubel in right. Butera catching, batting ninth. It sure looks more impressive than the Mariners' lineup.
I did not know that Thome was back. w00t!
Luke Hughes and Ben Revere were sent down last night when Thome and his caddy, Jason Repko, were called up.
I don't believe it was mentioned here yet, but baseball experts have spoken: