101 thoughts on “November 8, 2011: No BS”

  3. The more I read between the lines, the more I think Bill Smith asked the Pohlads to spend some money.

    I'm afraid that JeffA is right and we're looking at a similar period to 1997-1999. Yuck!

    1. Seriously, if this is the case... I'm so very discouraged. They get the stadium they said they needed to remain competative, they up payroll accordingly, win one division, have one disaster... and they give up?

      Puke.

      1. I may just be naive (and overly hopeful over yesterday's news) here, but I think spending the money correctly is more important than the amount of money that is spent. You have to allocate those resources properly. I think the players that could most help the team (Reyes, probably Buehrle or Jackson) are likely too expensive given the current payroll situation of the team. Smith didn't seem like a wizard at allocating the team's financial resources properly. With a pretty mediocre crop of players that are available to fill the holes the team has, I guess I'd prefer someone to not come in and overpay for a bunch of guys that are replacement level type players and hamstring the team for a few more years.

        I think the team's success next year is more dependent on how Mauer, Morneau, and Span come back from injury than anything. I'm just hoping that they can find the right complementary pieces to help. I don't know if another $15 million is going to make a difference given the options out there. And if Mauer, Morneau, and Span aren't right next year, it really won't matter.

        1. Certainly I don't want them to spend money just to spend money. And allocating resources efficiently and effectively is of utmost importance. But they have $17M to plug SS, the bullpen, 2 OF spots, backup catcher, etc.

          Maybe I was being naive in thinking that there was a way that $32M and better health could put them back in contention.

          1. Of the positions you list, SS is my only real concern. Sure, they need outfielders, but corner outfielders aren't the worst thing to go shopping for. If you wanted to do last year's roster on a budget, you'd probably start by spending less on corner outfielders. Cuddyer, Kubel, and Young collectively justified their $21M pay by returning about 4.5 fWAR, but at the same time, that's just a breakeven and you're always hoping to do better than a 1:1 return on investment.

            When it comes to the bullpen, I think that improving the defense is as important as finding new faces. TR generally had pretty good luck cobbling together a bullpen, but maybe he had a bunch of input into last year's bullpen, too. (His special assistant status the last few years clouds the issue on which moves we can attribute to BS and which moves were groupthink.)

            As for backup catcher, there really ought to be better budget options out there than Butera, whose OBP is barely above .200.

            1. I definitely agree that a good glove SS is the most important of those positions. But the sheer number of holes that need to be filled is daunting. And all of a sudden having roughly 1/2 as much to spend on those holes totally changes the gameplan.

            1. I saw that. I hope so. I know TR is kind of an odd guy, but it's strange that he would take the job without knowing what the payroll number is. Oh well.

        1. Aaron Gleeman put it well that Smith did well in acquiring complementary players but kept missing on the big deals that make the real difference. TR did well in the big deals and finding hidden gems in minor league deals, but had difficulty bringing in the right complementary players.

          2. Off the top of my head, there were two deals where BS gave up assets which had some real trade value: the Bartlett-Garza deal and the Ramos deal. He got a pretty small return in each, although I can understand the Ramos deal a little bit more than the Bartlett-Garza deal given that the Twins were in a position where a couple extra wins at the moment could make a big difference. (It was exactly the type of deal--prospects for a player at a position of need--that fans had been clamoring for TR to do at every deadline the Twins were remotely in the division chase.) To this day, my big issue with the Bartlett-Garza deal was giving up two valuable up-the-middle players for a guy who had to take huge leaps forward in his hitting in order to really justify the trade.

            When TR traded his big chips--Knoblauch and Pierzynski--he got big rewards. I think he got a little lucky in the Pierzynski deal, but he generally got the big things right. One small deal that sticks out in my mind is Buchanan for Bartlett. Kielty for Stewart--a trade I was opposed to at the time--turned out to be a real sell high moment, but the subsequent contract offer to Stewart was much less shrewd. I think some of his issues with bringing in complementary players can be chalked up to a bit of bad luck, in the same way that I think some of his big splashes were a little lucky. In the end, everything is a small sample size when we are evaluating GM moves.

            1. In analyzing the Ramos/Capps deal, you are failing to factor in the OCIAP (Our Catcher Is A Pussy) Factor. That's gotta be worth 2-3 WAR right there.

    3. I haven't changed my mind, exactly, but it is possible that things will go better than that. After all, if the Twins got healthy, productive, full seasons from Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Liriano, etc., this could still be a competitive team. There'd still be holes, clearly, but they could be competitive. This is a pretty big if, of course.

      1. I'm with neil Jeff A on this one. Every single thing that could have gone wrong last season went wrong. While I am not expecting 2009 Mauer, 2006 Liriano, or 2010 pre-injury Morneau, it can't possibly be worse than last season. I would not be the least bit surprised in seeing this team compete for a division title next year.

        1. I would not be the least bit surprised in seeing this team compete for a division title next year.

          I think I will enjoy going into to the season with much lowered expectations. It makes it easier if things go horribly wrong again. Plus, they can't possibly be the #6org next year.

            2. 2007 was pretty close to a .500 team after the Twins had won four of five divisions. That was hard to get used to. I kept waiting for the huge winning streak that never came.

        3. it can't possibly be worse than last season

          I would be careful with this sentiment. As they say over at Lookout Landing, there is no floor.

    4. We'll just have to wait and see what TR does. If he doesn't bring back Nathan or Cuddyer and trades away Pavano, then we could surmise that Smith wanted to spend money and bring in veterans to try to get back in contention this year. If TR brings back Cuddyer and/or Nathan and trades young players for veterans, then maybe Smith had told the Twins he wanted to get young and rebuild and the Pohlads didn't like the idea of rebuilding in the third year of a new ballpark and while paying Mauer and Morneau so much money. Really, I think the best way to go for the Twins would be for them to bring in veterans on one or two-year deals to try to contend this year, and if it doesn't happen, then you trade them for prospects at the deadline. The worst scenario for the Twins happened last year when they were on the fringes of contention at the trade deadline before plummeting to last place. If they had been in last in July, they could have traded Cuddyer and Kubel and possibly Nathan for prospects and gotten better deals for Thome and Delmon.

      1. The Twins thought they were on the fringes of contention in July. There was no way that team was good enough to go the distance, but no one in the front office could bring themselves to admit it.

        2. They were closer to first place in July last year than they were at the beginning of September in 2009. Only the Tigers had a winning record in the division. There wasn't that much competition. Plus, the Twins appeared to be finally getting healthy.

      2. What you've outlined is similar to what they did in about 1996-1998. They had no real thoughts of contending, of course, but what they often did was sign moderately priced veterans and then trade them near the deadline for young players. People like Greg Myers, Dave Hollins, Roberto Kelly, Greg Colbrunn, Orlando Merced, and Greg Swindell come to mind.

        1. Looking back at it, that part of the strategy really doesn't seem that bad to me. Short-term commitments keep you from tying your hands too long. The Twins had pretty awful revenues back then, so it wouldn't have made a lot of sense to try to make bigger free agent splashes. I wonder if the '92 and '93 drafts are what did them in as much as anything. The total rWAR from the '92 draft was -0.1. The total rWAR from the '93 draft was 30.7, but that was essentially all Torii Hunter, who didn't play a full season until 1999.

          That said, we could be looking at a similar issue here. In the '99-'01 drafts, the Twins essentially got Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel, but last season Mauer and Morneau barely played. The '02-'04 drafts were relatively weak, too. The stopgap veterans are probably more a symptom of a problem than they are the root of the problem.

          1. I don't think it was a bad strategy either. Basically, what they were trying to do was field some semblance of a major league ballclub while building the farm system for the future.

  5. a big talking point amongst the internet last night was a drop in payroll to around $100 mil. I heard Dave St Peter talk on the radio this morning saying they are expecting a drop in revenue, and also they want to be in a position of financial flexibility when it comes to later in the season (to me that says making a big trade deadline deal and not a Phil Nevin pickup late in August). But, could also the drop in payroll mean that they are going to spend a lot of money on their draft picks? They have the #2 pick and also they will probably get some comp pick and then draft high in the next rounds. They are probably in line for some decent talent and that does cost some money.

    I dont know how all that works...am I on the wrong line of thinking here?

    1. I think you're on the right track. The last time payroll dipped was in '08, and they spent a fair amount of money in that draft (with mixed results), on the heels of the infamous '07 Revere draft where they spent almost nothing.

        1. It never ceases to amaze me that a cover-up is the first instinct of people tangentially related to a scandal like this. Inevitably, the problem ends up worse. Oh, and there's the whole thing where what happened was deplorably evil.

          1. The cover-up is one awful thing after another, but what really gets me is the level of brainwashing it takes to have somebody catch the guy in the act, and his first thought isn't "I should go to the police with this right this very minute".

            1. Sick amounts of money have to be involved, right?

              There's no amount of money that shuts me up about something like this. I'd take hush money for a lot of things, but come on now.

              1. I don't think money had much to do with it. I'm guessing this guy was their friend and guys are all trained to not "tell" on a friend. I doubt any had seen this side of him and had convinced themselves that it was "one-time" thing. They may have even confronted the guy and he convinced them not to do anything, that it would never happen again and that they can trust their old friend. Some like Paterno did go to an authority, but it was to someone else who knew the guy and could be convinced not to do anything. I don't think it is as easy as some are making it out to be to go to a true authority, such as the police, to make sure it gets stopped, but it still had to be done. Someone had to stand up and say this is wrong and I have to make sure it gets stopped even if it does hurt my friend.

                1. Yeah, I can buy the fraternity thing. It's the same reason police have a hard time getting in trouble no matter what they do - other cops always protect them.

                2. This is more what I meant by "brainwashed". From what I understand, the inner circle in these sorts of things is a hell of a thing, indeed, and not something that seems easy to break, no matter how obvious it might appear from the outside.

            2. Moss' first thought would be, "Is there some reason Moss shouldn't bash this dude with a ball bat??"

              (So does that imply that Moss is brainwashed, since the first thought wouldn't be going to the police?)

                    2. Okay, here's one part I don't quite get. The stories have indicated that JoePa fulfilled his legal obligations by going to his superior with the allegations against Sandusky from his grad assistant. JoePa is a state employee. There's no obligation for a state employee to report to the police an apparent crime taking place in a state facility?

  8. Quick interview with the new voice of Twins radio:
    httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkRfATqF6sw

  9. EPL Prediction Contest through right now

    Place Player Points
    1 MagUidhir 18
    2 The Dread Pirate 17
    3 Homer Dome 13
    4 Freealonzo 13
    5 AMR 13
    6 Daneeka's Ghost 11
    7 DK 10
    8 Spookymilk 9
    9 Buffalo 3
    10 davidwatts 3

    1. Hey where's the link to our predictions? I want to see if anyone has Newcastle in 3rd place.

  10. The more I think about replacing Bill Smith with Terry Ryan, the more it gives me hope for the future. Not next year, maybe, but the longer-term future.

    The thing that impressed me about Terry Ryan as GM is that he always seemed to know how he wanted to build the ballclub. He had a plan, and he made moves that he thought would further his plan. Sometimes the moves worked out, and sometimes they didn't, but he had reasons, both short-term and long-term, for making them.

    If Bill Smith knew how he wanted to build the ballclub, I couldn't see it. He always seemed to just be reacting to the circumstances of the moment. We need an outfielder? Let's trade for Delmon Young. We need a relief pitcher? Let's trade for Matt Capps. It's not so much that the individual moves were good or bad. It's that he always seemed to just be trying to patch holes, rather than having an overall plan for how he thought a team should be built.

    If Terry Ryan stays on a while, and the impression I've been getting from the press is that he will, I suspect we'll see a plan again. I may or may not like the plan, but sometimes, just about any plan is better than no plan at all.

    1. I thought that in Bill Smith's initial offseason, I could see a plan, but he seemed to be stuck on that plan. With a new ballpark on the horizon for 2011, he let some veterans walk (Hunter and Silva), traded Santana for young prospects, and traded Garza and Bartlett for another really young guy. I think he wanted those players to grow around a core of Mauer, Morneau, and Nathan. It wasn't such a bad plan, though had Gomez or Young turned out close to what they'd hoped, it would've been a lot more effective. I think the success they had in '08 was a little accidental and they'd expected growing pains. To a degree, I think that filling in some gaps leading up to '11 made sense, but past that ... I don't really see what his plan for '12 or beyond was going to be.

    2. Perhaps the Twins didn't have the foresight of our experts here at the WGOM, but we now have a ballpark the screams for us to have outfielders with great range, and fly-ball pitchers who are undervalued because they pitched in hitters parks. I would like to see a plan go in that general direction. Also, I would like to move the fences in whenever Mauer is batting. 200 feet to left, and 4 feet to right.

      1. You mean like trading Delmon and letting Revere and Span play together? If they go with Benson in right next year they could have one of the best OF defenses in baseball, as far as catching the ball goes.

        1. I would have liked to have gotten in on the Jonathan Sanchez action. And I'd love to see the Twins go after Endy Chavez as a 4th OFer (or at least to challenge Revere for time in the OF rotation).

            1. The Magic of Rick Anderson. He's a fly ball pitcher who misses a lot of bats. He would have given DickandBert someone else to fixate the "keep the ball down" mantra on, perhaps leaving Scotty B in peace.

                2. No matter how good a pitching coach is, he needs to have something to work with. Sanchez has already had more success than Jim Hoey will ever have.

        2. I listened to Terry Ryan on 1500 today and he sounded pretty hesitant to rely on an outfield of both Span and Revere. He mentioned having to get power from somewhere.

          He did say it would be Span in CF and Revere in LF if they were both out there together.

          If we're not going to win, I want us to be fun to watch. Trade Hoey for CarGo and have a CarGo/Span/Revere outfield.

          1. Move Span to RF, Go-Go in center, Clarence Clemons in left. Could get ugly at the plate, but the D would be sublime. (At least until they threw the ball.)

            2. The Big Man doesn't have a lot of speed, 'cause he's dead. But I would have pegged him for a long-ball hitter.

  11. I've been making progress applying to academic jobs before I leave for Ireland so that my head is cleared of as many life expectations as possible while I'm in the shop. Today, I come to the end of the list and fill out my application for an assistant professor of art foundations job at Oregon U. When I get finished writing my letter, polishing my teaching philosophy, and uploading my images they direct me to a page to pay them 15 american dollars. 15 effing dollars? You have to be kidding me. I understand that the University will expend money to hire someone, but charging broke ass applicants for the pleasure of rejection is beyond ridiculous.

    Man. I'm pissed about this.

    1. yea, that's pretty ballsy. But a token fee like that should effectively weed out some total chumps from applying.

        1. Sounds pretty inexpensive compared to filing grad school applications, not that it makes the fee feel any better.

    2. My brother was an assistant professor of art foundations. Me, being the non-artist, thought when he said he was in "foundations" meant he was raising money.

      1. Was? He's not in the business anymore? Foundations is a job that pays the bills, but you pretty rarely get to do the thing you love which can be a drag.

        2. He's a professor of painting at another university now. We don't talk much about work but I get the impression he has less administrative work and more pressure to get his art shown.

          1. Once upon a time, I sat in on a tenure evaluation for an arts professor (visual arts; IIRC, the person directed plays or some such). Oy. Interesting discussion to see what the tenure expectations were. One of the evaluators (a faculty member) had skads of big-time productions (TV shows, I think) under his/her belt.

    3. Small fees are expected for screenwriting competitions, but any producer charging a fee to read a script is, in our business, a no-doubt scammer. That's gross, man.

      1. I just paid 30 bucks to enter a show at Highpoint in MPLS. Show fees are part of the business, but fees for job applications. Boo.

    1. Thanks for the patronage nibbish! You missed me by about 2 hours. I had to leave to play hockey dad. We will have to meet up some time for a cold one.

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