The Game is About Scoring Points and Stopping the Other Team from Scoring Points

When it comes to quantifying what a player's contribution is to a team, baseball is king. With its discrete events, it is relatively speaking, pretty easy to determine, statistically, who is contributing the most to a team's victory. Football, not so much. Basketball is somewhere in between and I think a lot of fun to discuss. Where the rigidity of baseball (pitcher throws ball to batter) and football (ball is snapped to QB and five of eleven players on offense never touch the ball when it is live) dictates offensive flow, any player on offense can contribute at any time, depending on the circumstances.

There are a lot of numbers that I like to look at, but one of my favorite is ORtg and DRtg. ORtg is an estimation of the number of points a player (or a team) generates per 100 possessions.  Let's look at a couple of players from this season. I have added a "Difference" column, which is simply the difference betwen the ORtg and the DRtg.

Dude ORtg DRtg Difference
LeBron James 119 97 22
Dwyane Wade 112 99 13
Chris Bosh 110 99 11
Kobe Bean Bryant 105 101 4
Pau Gasol 113 99 14
Andrew Bynum 107 95 12
Kevin Garnett 105 95 10
Paul Pierce 105 99 6
Ray Allen 112 102 10
Rajon Rondo 105 99 6
Derek Rose 116 101 15
Joakim Noah 118 95 23
Carlos Boozer 109 95 14
Kevin Durant 112 100 12
James Harden 126 105 21
Russell Westbrook 103 102 1
Tyson Chandler 136 97 39
Carmelo Anthony 102 101 1
Amare Stoudemire 99 99 0
Jeremy Lin 105 100 5

This should show you a couple of things. One, this is not the only tool that you should have in your toolbox. Is Joakim Noah better than LeBron James?, Well, no, he has almost no offensive game and what he does on offense is basically put back offensive rebounds and make 0 ft. bunnies. But, if you look at his usage rate that's reflected there. He is, however, extremely valuable and one of my favorite players in the league. Did I mention that he was on the board when the Wolves selected Corey Brewer? #wronggator How about Tyson Chandler? He's a damned good player. Not an offensive player in that he can't go out and create shots for himself, but he's a darned good piece. He's also the type of player for which ORtg isn't exactly the best indicator of his value. I think Amare and Chandler aren't a good fit together at least on the offensive end, and Carmelo, heh (for his career, he's 107/107).

I think this stat (at least the ORtg part) works best for high usage players. If you look at the Big Three from Miami, well, putting those three high usage studs out there for 38 minutes a night is going to net you a lot of wins. BTW, it's the Big One and the two buddies. LeBron is just so much better than everyone else in the league this year, it's not funny. If you throw out Chandler, LeBron, Noah, and Harden (who's the missing piece in Minneapolis, for sure), you can see that if you are somewhere in the ten to fifteen point range, you are something special. As for Kobe Bean, well, he's a below average defender and a somewhat above average offensive player with a usage rate of over 37%. If you are at 105 ORtg with that kind of usage, that's pretty good. Then again, LeBron is at 118 with a 32.8% usage rate. My prediction is that in 10 years, we will look back and say, it's hard to believe that there were so many LeBron doubters.

Okay, so, let's look at our favorite squad.

Player

ORtg

DRtg

 Difference

Kevin Love

118

99

19

Nikola Pekovic

113

101

12

Anthony Randolph

104

100

4

Ricky Rubio

101

99

2

Luke Ridnour

107

105

2

Derrick Williams

99

102

-3

Anthony Tolliver

101

104

-3

Wayne Ellington

100

104

-4

Jose Barea

99

105

-6

Michael Beasley

93

102

-9

Martell Webster

90

101

-11

Darko Milicic

87

100

-13

Wesley Johnson

83

103

-20

Brad Miller

77

108

-31

Love is an enormous beast. He's not some low usage defensive specialist, he's averaging almost 26 points a game. Pekovic is not exactly low usage, either. Chandler has a 12.5% rate, Noah has a 15.7% rate (both well below the 20% average). Pekovic's rate is 22.1% -- above average, although not in the stratosphere. By comparison, Love is at 27.3%, which is pretty healthy -- about KG's usage rate in his prime with the Wolves. But, anyway, Pek's differential is very healthy, at 12 he's right there with Bosh, Bynum, Durant, and Wade. I'm not saying he's actually the player that those guys are, but what I am saying is that his play lately has been outstanding.

Looking down the list, the Wolves have very few players that are even average (+/- > 0). Ridnour and Rubio are a strength -- interestingly, Ridnour is more of a contributor on offense -- Rubio's shooting is subpar and the turnovers are too high, but for a rookie, Rubio is terrific. (Kyrie Irving is 111/108.) Williams isn't terrible at -3 for a rookie, but that's a little disappointing for the number 2 pick (Wes Johnson last year 101/112). Wes Johnson is a total bust. Milicic is a lost cause. Beasley is an unrepentant gunner. Interestingly enough, he's not terrible on the defensive end, more like mediocre, but offensively, he's awful.

This team is blessed with two great players up front, a talented young point guard with a lot of room for improvement. They are completely devoid of talent on the wings, though. (Don't trade for Gasol, please!)

Okay, enough of my rambling.

4 thoughts on “The Game is About Scoring Points and Stopping the Other Team from Scoring Points”

  1. They are completely devoid of talent on the wings, though.

    That's kind of good news, isn't it. Aren't wings the easiest to find? I would think that big men and point guards are like up-the-middle defensive players in baseball and wings are like corner outfielders and first base/DHs.

  2. I really need to go to the home page a bit more often, I almost overlooked this. Are you going to post it/link to it on Canis Hoopus?

  3. We are still in SST-land.! Last season, in 65 appearances Pek! had an offensive rating of 100 and defensive rating of 111. Darko, on the other hand, sux. Career 94/105. For a guy who is supposed to be a shot-blocker and rebounder, his defense is lousy.

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