This was orignally a LTE in the CoC, but I decided to give it its own post since it was getting long and I didn't want to clog up the other thread.
EPL Update
Manchester United squadered leads of 3-1 and 4-2 to draw with Everton 4-4. The dropped points, combined with City's win, means that City are only 3 points back with 3 matches to play. Next week is the Manchester Derby Part II, this time at the Ethiad. ManUtd got plastered 6-1 by City at home earlier in the year. A City win will have the Manchester teams tied on points (and City with the edge on GD) with 2 games to play. Also, Newcastle has moved into the fourth and final Champions League slot, with Tottenham Hotspur dropping to 5th.
In news at the other end of things, Wolves have secured their spot in the Championship last year. They are the first team to be guaranteed relegation. No more Mick McCarthy GIF! *sad trombone*
| Place | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MagUidhir | 20 |
| 2 | Daneeka's Ghost | 16 |
| 3 | The Dread Pirate | 16 |
| 4 | AMR | 15 |
| 5 | Spookymilk | 14 |
| 6 | Freealonzo | 13 |
| 7 | Homer Dome | 12 |
| 8 | Buffalo | 11 |
| 9 | DK | 10 |
| 10 | davidwatts | 7 |
Bye week for the Sounders this last weekend. Portland beat SKC over the weekend, SKC's first non-win of the season.
An ugly start for Toronto so far, now at 0-6-0 so far this season, despite Frings returning this last weekend.
Chicago and Seattle play each other next weekend. They are tied for last in the league in games played, but both are off to good starts in limited action--Seattle stands at 3rd in points per game and Chicago at 5th in points per game. Chicago's start is arguably more impressive given their 2-home/3-away split as compared to the Sounders' 4-home/1-away split.
Actually, I just did a quick and dirty home-field advantage adjustment and it puts Seattle and Chicago in a virtual dead heat--the Sounders 5th at 1.74 adjusted PPG and the Fire 6th at 1.68 adjusted PPG.
As far as I'm concerned, TFC can lose every game the play by 4-0 as long as they continue to employ Torsten Frings.
I figured as much, so I thought I'd deliver the happy news. 🙂
And welcome news it is. Thanks so much for putting the cherry on my day.
Nyarko mugged Frings and passed it to Oduro to score 25 seconds into the game. Some of these top league players look pretty woeful(Marquez).
SKC's first non-win of the season
and they still outscored Portland. (The only goal was a beautiful header by a KC defender into his own net)
a quick and dirty home-field advantage adjustment
not really related to what you're looking at here, but in doing the pick 'em at Avoiding the Drop (R.I.P.) last year, I noticed that the home-field advantage was very strong earlier in the season, but got much smaller as the season drew to a close.
At one point last year if someone had just picked home teams to win, they would have been comfortably ahead of all of us prognosticators.
Avoiding the Drop (R.I.P.)
Fuse writes at The Tanner Ba' now, mostly about the Staggies.
It is possible that there is a seasonal component to HFA, but I guess I would be surprised if it was typically stronger earlier in the season rather than later in the season, since if anything, it seems like the disadvantage to playing on the road is getting worn down by travel (especially since MLS teams fly coach), and that would seem to get worse as the season goes on. (Apologies for that marathon sentence.)
When I did the quick and dirty adjustment I just used overall Home PPG (1.65) and Away PPG (1.00) from last year to set a baseline for what should be expected from teams this year based just on # of home games and # of away games.
As far as second-order corrections to HFA go, I would guess that distance traveled and elevation would both be significant factors, though potentially difficult to account for. For instance, from the Sounders' perspective, flying to Providence to bus to Foxborough has to be a lot more taxing than going to either Portland or Vancouver.
yeah, it was one season, and HFA stopped being so strong a factor as soon as I starting using it to inform my picks. But it did slide quite a bit last year (let's see, we've got selection bias, small sample size, anecdotal evidence, anything else I can throw in there to make my argument more convincing?)
The EPL is stupid....which I'm sure has nothing to do with my team's season. I'm moving my allegiance to a Bundesliga squad. TBD. Probably Stuttgart.
If you want a German team, FC St. Pauli are awesome, but they're in the 2.Bundesliga.
nicknamed "The Girls"???
It'll all depend on where I end up (fingers crossed).
If you end up in Hamburg, St. Pauli is definitely the way to go. THey have a little train that brings brats and taps built into the seats to your seat (in the nice seats, anyway). They just don't take things to seriously and seem like great fun.
Good luck going forward. Where abouts might you end up?
There's a chance I end up in that area. Kiel is on the list of programs.
Watching Spurs has become like watching the Twins...from last season.
They've really fallen all over themselves the last month or so haven't they? Maybe it's time to don a blue jersey?