Cup of Coffee

April 27, 2012: There was a what now?

134 Comments

Last night I didn't see a second of the draft, and didn't care when I found out I was missing it. It seems my apathy toward the NFL is nearing completion.

134 thoughts on “April 27, 2012: There was a what now?”

  2. Darren Wolfson ‏ @DarrenWolfson
    From a #Twins source: talks about pursuing Brandon Inge will begin in earnest this morning. Ryan, Antony, etc. will meet.

    1. If it happens, I hope they stuff his jersey.
      Would fit the pattern of late-career signings of guys that at one time hurt the Twins:
      Ruben Sierra, Jim Thome, Joe Crede, Dusty Hughes, Dennys Reyes, Craig Monroe, Ron Mahay, Rondell White, etc.
      Some have worked out, others not so much.

      How did Frank Thomas never sign with the Twins?

      1. There is no fix for our starting pitching issues. The only fix would be losing and drafting power arms, but I feel like we've been over that recently.

        1. If you mean there is no available money or trade bait to fix our starting pitching issues, I concede the point. But I don't have to like it.

    3. LaVelle speculates if the Twins sign Inge, they'd send Valencia to AAA and let Burroughs & Inge play 3B.

      ...

      Valencia is not playing well at all this season, but I don't know. I think I'd prefer him than that platoon. Burroughs has a good glove and no bat. Inge has a horrible glove and no bat.

      2. Inge has a great glove unless he turned 65 over night. That's the only thing he really brings to the table.

        1. He's declined in the field to about average now at third base, his best position, at least according to Total Zone and BIS on B-Ref. I really don't see the point of bringing Inge in unless you demote Valencia. But I doubt a platoon Inge and Burroughs would be much better than Valencia has been thus far. The only way it could really help the Twins is if it helps Valencia recover his stroke and he gets recalled in a month or two.

      3. Maybe Valencia could use a breather in Rochester, but sometimes guys just need to learn how to dig themselves out of a slump. I think he's got a good enough overall resume that he should be able to do it.

        That said, Inge seems like a decent bench guy. He's got some experience at 3B, C, OF, and 2B. You probably wouldn't have him starting in all of those positions, but having someone like that gives you options late in the game, so you can pinch hit for just about anyone, knowing that Inge can come in and play an inning or two just about anywhere in the field. Not ideal, but by the time you are worried about using the bench, you've already ventured into non-ideal territory.

          1. But you're never going to PH for Casilla in the late-innings against a tough righty reliever with Inge. (Of course, Burroughs and Clete aren't exactly great for that role either...)

            1. Of course there should really be no need to choose between two field players when there are eleventy hundred pitchers on the active roster, but I suspect you'd be happy to jettison a dead weight pitcher or two.

            2. But you're never going to PH for Casilla in the late-innings against a tough righty reliever with Inge.

              pfft. How hard is it to play 2b? I mean, Cuddiier did it.

              2. I think he was referring to Burroughs (L) vs. Inge (R). Career-wise, Burroughs has better numbers vs. RHP than Inge. Inge has at least as good a resume at 2B as Burroughs.

                1. career split vs RH

                  Inge: 223/290/361
                  Lexi: 254/318/348

                  2011 split vs RH
                  Inge: 170/220/228
                  Lexi: 274/350/400

                  Umm, yah. That's not selling Inge very well, is it?

                  1. OTOH, although his name has not yet been mentioned today, it's quite possible that the Twins would really view Inge as an alternative to Butera, and might jettison a pitcher to put Inge on the roster.

                    .167/.213/.251 -- Butera vs. RH
                    .170/.220/.228 -- Inge vs. RH '11
                    .223/.290/.361 -- Inge vs. RH, career

                    .200/.233/.280 -- Butera vs. LH
                    .245/.339/.378 -- Inge vs. LH, '11
                    .264/.340/.458 -- Inge vs. LH, career

                    Think of Inge as a more versatile Butera with upside, who can hit lefties a little.

          2. Funny, I've been rooting for Burroughs but I would rather see Juicy get back on track. It seems that Inge would bring more versatility to the lineup. I agree with Philo about Inge being an upgrade, but I don't hate Burroughs enough to be happy about a possible demotion.

            1. He single-handedly lost the game for us the other night and I'm also (for no reason) blaming him for the Parmalee beaning. I think he did naughty things to your mother too. What's not to hate?

      4. The only way that makes sense is if they think Valencia could somehow benefit from going back to AAA. I'm skeptical. He's not a kid any more--he's 27. He's had a thousand at-bats in the big leagues. If he does well in AAA, what does that prove? If they see something he's doing wrong, then they should be working with him to correct it.

    3. Young, known for his powerhouse arm in the outfield,

      Really? That's what he's known for?

      3. You know, I bet Young is gonna miss some playing time with this problem... I'm guessing Detroit wishes they had someone who could fill in, like a Clete Thomas or an Inge-worm.

    1. Speaking of basketball, wasn't there some sort of WGOM fantasy league that ended yesterday?

      1. Nice work, cheaps. I didn't think you were going to pull it off, but evidently you have really strong fingernails.

        1. The key was sitting DeAndre Jordan and Landry Fields the last few days so they couldn't pull my FT% down. But that was still a hell of a comeback by you guys to make me sweat.

      3. Hey, someone give me the standings. I'll give points for the top third of the league.

        1. Let's see if I can get some of these right; all errors are because I'm stupid, so please correct me-

          Chillin with Bease cheaptoy
          mechanical advantage kg2005- was rob a co-manager?
          bhiggum bhiggum

          the magic johnsons ? Coach Patton ?
          Kaaaaaaaaaaaaaahn!!! ? Dan ?
          Christ Punchers greekhouse
          Buffalo Rubios FirstTime "hitman" LongTime
          SoCal Slamdogs socaltwinsfan
          Flagrant Fowlers nibbish

          1. I think I tried to be a part of the league last year, the draft website was broken while the draft happened, I ended up with a team that I absolutely hated, and never thought about the league again. So that's not my team.

                  1. So not a regular then? Meaning, not someone who's name I should put on the point sheet?

                  2. He did a heck of a job the last couple weeks- even took over first for a day or two.

          4. So there were 9 teams? With Cheap getting 3 points, no one yet claiming 2 points for 2nd and bhiggum getting 1 for 3rd place.

    2. The sad thing is that the results of this season really could have been positive. I think most people agree that the wolves were better than their record. They could have capitalized on their injuries to get a better draft pick.

      On the flip side, Marko Jaric's wife is hot. (I had to try to find a positive spin.)

      2. Yes please to the Mrs. JJ / Jaric spread.
        Maybe I'm mistaken, but I thought their only shot at a draft pick was if Utah made the playoffs. Would losing have mattered?
        I was at the game last night...Miller was crying on the bench with a towel over his head (final game of his career) and the camera guy would. not. pan. away. Brad finally gave a small wave to the fans who were giving him a heart-felt standing ovation.

        2. Isn't Ms. Jaric kind of beyond "spreads"? I mean, sure, I'd love to see it, but she's pretty much one of the two or three biggest names in being beautiful...

          Mostly I just post this here because thinking about her is helping get me through this incredibly boring day, and conversation about her is a good thing.

        1. I nearly ended up watching that for five hours, but I narrowly escaped your trap by concentrating on the KIA logo until I couldn't see anything else.

  6. I love the draft. I always have. I have always been an armchair general manager.

    When I used to play stratomatic, I enjoyed drafting and trading more than actually playing the game.

    1. I like the draft, mostly because it's the most optimistic thing that ever happens for a team, but I can't study it the way some people do. I like the post-analysis more than I do the endless mock drafts that take place before the event.

    2. I have never understood why the NFL draft got so much attention. I can't think of programming much more dull. I think I'd rather watch Hoarders (if you know me, you know how extreme this statement is)

      1. I think it's largely because college football is so popular. Compared with the baseball draft, sports fans probably have some opinions about some of the players involved.

        1. I think the nearly instant gratification of high draft picks playing the season immediately after the draft helps too. I get excited following the Twins minor leaguers, but it's often years before you get to see them on the big club.

          1. This is what I've figured. I never get too into the baseball draft, since my reaction is essentially "Well, there are a bunch of names I'll know without faces for the next four years."

            Granted, I do enjoy myself when I follow it, or at least I did last season when I followed it with some of you dudes.

            1. I spend several days around the baseball draft reading all the free articles I can about players, etc. My hope is that somewhere, someone notices I'm paying more attention to the baseball draft than the football draft, and adjust their estimation of the sports' relative importance accordingly.

                1. This year should be fun. I really hope the Twins get a power college arm that's close to ML ready.

                  Toolsy high school outfielder here we come!

                  1. Where did this impression that the Twins only draft toolsy HS outfielders come from? (Well, I'm pretty sure the answer is Aaron Gleeman, but anyway...) Twins 1st round picks, asterisks represent drafted from a 4-year college:

                    2011: SS*, 3B, RHP
                    2010: RHP*
                    2009: RHP*, LHP*
                    2008: OF, RHP*, RHP*
                    2007: OF
                    2006: 1B/OF
                    2005: RHP*, 1B
                    2004: SS, LHP*, RHP, RHP*, RHP
                    2003: 3B
                    2002: OF

                    In the last 10 years, out of 20 first-round and supplementary-first-round picks, the Twins have a whole 3 picks that could be described as "toolsy HS outfielders"--Span, Revere, and Hicks. (I'm not buying Parmelee as a toolsy outfielder when he's played more games at 1B than in the outfield and has never played center.) Also, out of all 20 of those picks, Garza, Span, and Perkins are the only players that have yet had much of a major league career to speak of.

                    If anything, the last 10 years has shown us that the Twins are more than willing to pick college pitchers, having used 8 of their last 20 picks on college pitchers.

                    1. 2010: Wimmers: Control issues. Could still reach MLB.
                      2009: Gibson: Injury, delayed a year. Likely to reach MLB and be fine.
                      2009: Bashore: Injury. With Yankees now.
                      2008: Hicks: Slow progression. Maybe reach MLB.
                      2008: Gutierrez: Slow progression and possibly just not that good. Likely to reach MLB though.
                      2008: Hunt: Major control issues. Out of baseball/system?
                      2007: Revere: Reached MLB, time will tell.
                      2006: Parmelee: Reached MLB, time will tell.
                      2005: Garza: Success.
                      2005: Sanchez: No idea. Out of baseball it seems.
                      2004: Plouffe: Reached MLB, probably not that good.
                      2004: Perkins: Reached MLB, solid reliever.
                      2004: Waldrop: Touched MLB, time will tell. Injured right now.
                      2004: Fox: With Seattle.
                      2004: Rainville: Out of baseball?
                      2003: Moses: Out of baseball?
                      2002: Span: Reached MLB, solid center fielder.

                      Summary:
                      1 regular, average or better starter but not with team.
                      1 regular, average or better position player.
                      1 regular, average or better reliever.
                      2 reached MLB, need more time.
                      1 reached MLB, probably don't need more time.
                      1 Waiting to reach MLB, probably okay at best.
                      2 Injured, waiting to reach MLB.
                      2 Minors, need more time.
                      2 Minors, probably okay at best, other system.
                      4 Out of baseball.

                      I think that's everyone 2002-2010. I count three players that I would qualify as successes, one that could be successful if not for injury, and two or three more than should at worst be role players in the near future. My gut feeling is that it's an average draft history. There needs to be a more systematic way to do this.

                      Edit: Leaving this here, but I meant it to be in reply to your reply to my comment.

                    2. I guess I don't see it as a terrible draft history, but at the moment, it doesn't feel like it's helped a whole lot. Maybe I don't put enough value in role players, but I don't see a lot of value in, say, Parmelee or Plouffe. Yeah, it's nice to have something out of a draft pick rather than nothing, but they seem pretty replacement-level-ish. Sub-Puntonian even.

                      If we wanted to make things easy, we could draw a Punto line at 1.2 rWAR/130 games. (Or 1.2 rWAR/80G for RPs and 1.2 rWAR/35G for SPs.) I think the Punto line is a good target for a late first round pick. How do the picks rank in terms of beating the Punto line?

                      2010: Wimmers: Maybe.
                      2009: Gibson: Probably.
                      2009: Bashore: Not with the Twins.
                      2008: Hicks: Probably. (Maybe this is going out on a limb a bit, but he's in AA the same age that Span was and his numbers are basically as good as Span's, though contact may be an issue.)
                      2008: Gutierrez: Maybe.
                      2008: Hunt: Probably not.
                      2007: Revere: Maybe.
                      2006: Parmelee: Maybe.
                      2005: Garza: Yes.
                      2005: Sanchez: No.
                      2004: Plouffe: Probably not?
                      2004: Perkins: Sure. (I don't want to bother figuring out his Punto line score since he's been a started and a reliever.)
                      2004: Waldrop: Probably not. (His numbers even as a reliever don't seem impressive.)
                      2004: Fox: Not with the Twins. (Thus giving this pick no value to the Twins.)
                      2004: Rainville: No.
                      2003: Moses: No.
                      2002: Span: Yes.

                      Above Punto line by category:

                      Yes: 3 (Perkins is marginal here)
                      Probably: 2
                      Maybe: 4
                      Probably not: 3 (Hunt is awfully close to "No" here)
                      No: 5

                      If you count Probably as 75% chance, Maybe as 50% chance, and Probably Not as 25% chance, then that'd put the Twins with 7.25 above Punto and 9.75 below Punto. There's a lot of variance there, though, and it's easier for me to see them slipping to 4-5 for 17 thangoing up to 9-10 for 17.

                    3. And the kicker is that of the 3 most solidly better-than-Punto players, one was traded away for a bag of magic beans, another has been injured a lot, and the third now has potentially lingering concussion issues.

                    4. Well that bag of magic beans was headlined by a terrible fielding, poorly hitting (apparently) racist drunk. So it's not all bad, right?

                      🙁

                    5. In regard to sean's list, Shooter Hunt is with Class A Batavia in the Cardinals organization. I find it hard to believe he'll ever do anything, but I guess we'll see.

                      Henry Sanchez last played in 2009 and never got beyond Class A. Jay Rainville last played in 2009 and never got beyond AA. Matt Moses also last played in 2009, reaching AAA in 2007.

                    6. About halfway through, I realized I should put it in terms of WAR.

                      I like the Punto benchmark. Mauer would be 12.5 Puntos over the previous three years.

                      For relievers, it seems Mijares fits best (1.12 rWAR / 80 G). Starters, Blackburn seems to be the best fit with 1.14 rWAR / 35 G.

                    7. I think that Mijares and Blackburn seem like reasonable benchmarks for a late first-round pick. Not a high bar, but a little higher than replacement level.

                  2. For that matter, it wasn't that long ago that they drafted Kyle Gibson, who was close enough to ML-ready that he made it all the way to Rochester in his first year in the minors.

                    I find your lack of faith disturbing. 🙂

                    2. It's been problematic that they've gotten so little from the draft over the last 10 years. It's a lot harder to draft from the bottom of the first round than in it is from the top of the first round, especially with the huge supplementary round making late second-round picks more like early fourth-round picks. I'd be hard-pressed to think of any reasons to draft anyone other than the best player avaialble (salary considerations taken into account, obviously.)

                      I'm inclined to think that at least some of the poor turnout has been bad luck. Shooter Hunt going Ankiel on the Twins, for instance.

                    3. Well I have been thorougly embarassed, haha. I honestly think they'll do okay in the draft, I was mostly just being snarky (using incorrect information!).

                      I was really excited about the Gibson pick, and I'm really looking forward to him joining the big club hopefully next year. Wimmers I was a bit less excited about since while he was ML ready college starter, he seemed to be a mid-back of the rotation type guy.

                      Given that most of this year's starters will likely be gone next year, I'm just hoping they can draft someone who has top of the rotation potential. They don't have a ton of depth in the minors to trade for a young, quality pitcher. As much as I'd love them to, I don't really see them going out and signing a Zack Greinke (or Cole Hamels, or Shaun Marcum, etc.) to help bolster the rotation. I think this is maybe their best chance to get that type of a pitcher.

                      I really hope they're not drafting in the top 3 again for quite some time.

                    6. I didn't mean to embarrass anyone. I only commented on it because I feel like I still see that a lot and the idea has been wildly overpromoted at times in the past.

    3. I'm with Algonad. I think a big part of it is that, as a Bills fan, this is one of the only days of the year where I can be talked into my team being competitive.

        2. holy crap, that's jaric's wife? i never knew her name, but i had a photo of her tapped to my steering wheel taken from one of the 5 victoria's secret catalogs we got every month (lots of bedrooms, lots of turnover, loooots of mail for many people that didn't live there anymore in that old house). it was supposed to be representative of the soul of my old, crappy car. oh, and she was smokin hot.

      1. I never did play enough Starcraft to get good at any thing, but it was still a good time.

  9. I'm sure that no one is actually reading Fun Factory, but in a really weird confluence of events, our current storyline pretty heavily involves Steve Jobs and now there's news that Jobs was planning a Willy Wonka (and/or Fun Factory) type tour. That's just kind of neat.

    1. Spamtown connection for Moose:

      During the 1950 baseball season, sophomore Skowron played shortstop and batted .500 (10-20), setting a batting mark that stood in the Big 10 for a decade. (Skowron's record was shattered in 1961 by Michigan catcher Bill Freehan, who hit .585.) He was named an All-American. His baseball coach at Purdue was Hank Stram.

      That summer, Skowron took a $400 a month job with a plumbing and heating company in Austin, Minn., so he could play third base on the company team in the fast semi-pro Southern Minnesota League. He hit .323 with five home runs and 24 RBIs in 23 games. At the end of the season he was signed by the New York Yankees for a $25,000 bonus.

    1. He probably changed each pick again about two seconds before it was announced, so he can claim he was right on everything.

    1. Huh. I thought the radio guys said it went off the brim of his batting helmet. The brim must not be where it used to be.

      1. oh yeah, it went off the brim, but it hit right where the brim meets the helmet just above and back of the eye, so I guess I could see the collision causing a black eye.

  13. Bryce Harper is now (tomorrow) in the majors. His debut won't be as exciting as Strasburg's was, but it's still pretty cool to watch the Nationals go from terrible team to legit contender so quick. I also like that the Werth deal looks better than the Crawford deal, even if it's still a bad deal.

    Go Nats!

  14. looking at the box scores tonight, Colorado put up an 11 spot in the 5th inning . They lead 18-9 against the Mets.

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