Cup of Coffee

April 28, 2012: Blue

59 Comments

Add Brian O'Nora to the list of umps that have possibly cost the Twins a game. Yes, it wouldn't matter if the Twins had executed on the mound, but just let me have this.

59 thoughts on “April 28, 2012: Blue”

  1. I'll grant that the Twins haven't played well, but they sure don't seem to be getting many breaks, either. On the other hand, maybe that's what bad teams always say.

    2. With such a few number of games, I'd say in many cases that bad breaks are what makes bad teams bad.

      I don't think this is a great Twins team, but they're not as bad as they look.

    3. ESPN's Pythagorean standings have the Twins at 6-14 rather than 5-15. So it's hard to say they've been all that unlucky.

      They also have the worst run differential in the AL and the worst record in the AL. They have the 3rd-worst OPS in the AL. They have the 7th-best wOBA in the AL, though, so some of that may be park related. They have the 2nd-worst FIP in the AL, though. The pitchers' collective fWAR so far has been -0.2. Below replacement-level pitching for nearly a month! That might be an issue.

      Do I think they are going to lose 120 games? No, but I guess it's hard for me to say they've been all that unlucky. They haven't played very well, but they will probably play somewhat better going forward.

      1. The Pythagorean standings don't take into account all aspects of luck, though. They don't take into account a blown umpire's call that costs a couple of runs and kills a rally. They don't take into account a smashed line drive right at someone that turns into a double play. They don't take into account a pitch down and away that a hitter has no business swinging at, but that he bloops down the line for a double. It seems perfectly possible, especially over twenty games, to be unlucky and not have it show up in the Pythagorean standings.

        But again, that may just be what fans of all bad teams say.

        1. Sure, it doesn't show all aspects of luck, which is why I also posted OPS, wOBA, FIP, and pitchers' fWAR. I'm not saying that there's been no bad luck at all, but they've allowed 39 runs more than they've scored. If their run differential was even something like -20 or -15, I'd say they maybe played like a .500 team, but I'm not buying they've had bad luck essentially take 2 runs per game, every game, from them.

          1. I'd say that we are in pretty wide agreement here that 81-81 is a goal we are looking up at now.

          2. And of course, I never said that they were playing like a .500 team. So we probably don't disagree all that much.

    1. He's had a good April. Hopefully he's able to keep it up. Mauer, Span, and Willingham have all been doing pretty well. Morneau has been not awful, hopefully he can build on his start. The team really needs some of their other guys to start hitting, though, whether it's Parmelee or Valencia or Doumit or Plouffe or whoever.

    3. Hurt last year? Come on. He deliberately tanked last season so people would think wimpy numbers like that are actually good.

  6. LeBron James, at 28.0 PPG, is second among active NBA players in post-season scoring. Can you name #1?

    Spoiler SelectShow

  7. Who said it:

    Mauer's WPA is .01, so basically just as much negative as positive. Fans perceptions aren't skewed much. He's struggled in some big spots.

    Spoiler SelectShow

    1. In "late and close" situations, he's 154/267/154. In, ah, FIFTEEN plate appearances. Of course, if he were to jack a donger in his next such appearance, his SLG would go to .429.

      But according to b-r's "leverage" situations, he's 316/381/368 in "high" leverage (21 PA), 346/452/615 in "medium" leverage (31) and 323/417/355 in "low" leverage (36) plate appearances.

      In those 21 high-leverage PA, he's had 4 Ks, 2 GIDP, 2 BBs, 1 HBP, 5 singles and a double, with 5 RBI.

    2. Realllllyyy? Fans perceptions aren't skewed much when they are mother-effing booing the best player on the team when he's been fucking win-neutral on a team that wins about as often as we get a new episode of Mad Men? What a bunch of hot air.

      Mauer leads the team in fWAR, has played every game so far this season, and his .387 wOBA is higher than his career average. The only player with a better wOBA is Willingham, and Willingham basically gives us nothing on defense. (Though I still like that signing.) Mauer's the best player on the team and he's had the best April. There are a lot of things wrong with this team. Joe Mauer is not one of them.

      2. Continuing your second paragraph:

        Mauer has played in all 20 games. His previous high for consecutive games played to start the season was 15 in 2010. And he's playing again this afternoon.

  9. iiiinnnteresting.

  10. I just found out that the girl who did the lighting design for one of my favorite shows I ever did died in her sleep last night (she was maybe in her late 20s).

    Ugh.

      1. None of us in the show knew her well...she was an employee of the venue, not a member of our company (there's a law, and I think it's still in place, that when you do a show in Minnesota you must pay at least one employee of the building to be part of it. So, in general, since most of the venues can't afford to employ much of a staff, they have one person set aside to always do this). She was a pro, but a lot of fun, and fit in with our group immediately. That was the only show we did there so we didn't keep up with her, but we have great memories of her and she was awfully good at her job.

        1. Huh, they used Amy's quote. Amy and her husband John are good friends of mine, and were close with her. I didn't realize she was doing their next show.

  11. Well, I spaced on the recap last night. My excuse is that our house is overrun with family for Gideon's baptism this weekend. I promise to be more reliable in the future.

    2. I missed this yesterday - congratulations on the baptism. Kernel's is next weekend - feel free to pass along any helpful hints regarding the ceremony or celebration.

  12. Dr. Chop and I held our moving sale today, and we made out like bandits. For a little over 20 hours of work total we made enough to go out to a couple of steak dinners, or we made enough to offset the cost of a first months rent. I'll take it.

      1. I'm a master of Tax forms, doc. We donated more to the the good will than we made in profit, and we sold the goods for under fair market depreciated value. We're all good with the IRS.

        1. I don't think it matters, meat. Technically, anything you sell is income. You don't get to offset with the costs (depreciated or otherwise) of the goods.

          Of course, I don't know anyone who has actually ever sold anything at a garage sale....

          1. You should have kept going to the IRS article:

            A person must report a gain from a sale whether he or she operates a business or not. A reportable gain is the income above the original cost or basis of the item. These gains may be business income or capital gains.

            Income resulting from auctions akin to an occasional garage or yard sale is generally not required to be reported. However, there may be exceptions. If an online garage sale turns into a business with recurring sales and purchasing of items for resale, it may be considered an online auction business.

    2. We had a little hail this evening, too, but not enough to do any damage to anything.

  14. I know that we're not all lovey-dovey with The National Football League here, but this is a nice gesture from da Raidahs.

    Every season ticket purchased and paid in full between May 1 and June 30 will have 10 percent of its gross donated to the Oakland public schools. With season tickets starting at $260 a piece and costing as much as $1,510, the donation to the schools can be substantial.

  15. Went over to West Hurley, NY to practice on a duathlon route I will be doing next weekend.

    The route was quite hilly, might even have to walk the bike up one stretch (zoinks, Scoob!). I decided to return to H'ford on the East side of the Hudson.

    Ran into 1) Vanderbilt mansion (a place where one might hang out for a couple months in the summer) in Hyde Park - A big man has no time really to do anything but just sit and be big , 2) Franklin Delano Roosevelt mansion and presidential library - very cool, first presidential library, nice presentation of artifacts - got polio at 39, but didn't slow him down - braces, wheelchairs, etc. - cool photos of him and Churchill, him and Stalin, etc. ; 3) Vassar college = wow. Wished I would've considered this for undergrad.

    1. Diamond at least has improved his walk rate, but we're still talking about just four games. His K rate is barely above 6, which means in the majors he won't be any better than what we got. The guy I would like to see is Cole DeVries. He at least is striking out more than one batter an inning while maintaining the same walk rate. His K rate has improved despite moving from the bullpen last year to the starting rotation this year. Usually, that has the reverse effect. He's 27, so I have no delusions of him being a great prospect, but he seems to be a guy that would be easy to cheer for and even though it's a small sample, at least his good results are being supported by peripheral numbers. The fact he's a Minnesota kid that played for the Gophers and was an undrafted free agent would also make him a great story for a team that needs some of that right now.

      1. Takes about 250 PAs before the walk rate stabilizes, so Diamond has another 150 batters to go. Strikeout rate takes about 100 though, so it seems DeVries is just as effective at striking out hitters as before. I would agree he could be the more interesting pitcher this year.

Comments are closed.