99 thoughts on “May 10, 2012: Habit”

  1. You could probably simplify your life by just saying, "we'll, this blows." everyday and no one would mind. It would show as much variety in the CoC as the. twins show in game outcomes.

  2. I go to bed and all hell breaks loose regarding the Twins roster.
    Maybe I havent been paying closer attention to the Padre's minor league update, but I have never heard on PJ Walters

      1. It's a good bit, padre. Cynicism wrapped in pie-eyed pseudo-optimism. I like it.

              1. I was thinking the same thing. Once we get to 82 losses, that might be the time to stop.

    4. Adding up teams (1970-2011) with a similar run differential (+/- 5 runs) through the first 30 games gives an estimate of 65-97. Three teams had 100 losses or greater and three teams topped 70 wins.

  4. Gleeman:

    Valencia was never a top prospect and a modest minor-league track record made it obvious that his strong half-season debut was largely a fluke, but he's declined even further than expected since then both offensively and defensively. He's played 266 games in the majors and hit just .262/.304/.395, which would be poor production from a shortstop or a catcher and is downright awful for a third baseman who's mediocre defensively on a good day.

    On the other hand he's 27 years old with more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, so a demotion to Triple-A furthering his development seems like wishful thinking. Valencia is what he is at this point, and that's simply not a quality regular because he can't hit right-handed pitching. With that said, he's a career .325/.374/.485 hitter against left-handers and that type of production certainly has a place on a major-league roster if used correctly.

    I don't know Danny Valencia any more than I know Barack Obama or George W. Bush. My impressions of him are that he's kind of an ass, but I could be wrong. Nevertheless, he is what he is on the baseball field, a short side of a 3B platoon. The alternatives in the Twins organization are not better. This is going to be a very long season. I suggest we find other ways to enjoy the summer.

    1. I guess I'm just surprised by how sudden and complete the team's transition from "Class of Division" to "Dregs of League" was.

        1. a months-long Furious, Cynic(al) Bender might leave us pretty Surly. But I'm ok with that.

      2. I've got one Furious left in the fridge from my recent trip up to the home land.

    3. I guess it's possible that Valencia will feel less pressure in Rochester and will be able to get straightened out, but I don't think it's very likely. This feels like "let's just shake things up" more than anything else.

      1. I think it is likely more a message to the whole team that they will be held responsible for their performance.

        1. If the season's going to be awful anyway, then attempting to reestablish some accountability at the highest level of the franchise may be worth a shot.

            1. I whole-heartedly agree - didn't mean to insinuate that Juicy was the only one who needed to be held accountable. That should have said "levels".

      2. From the standpoint of trying to get Valencia on track, I don't see how he's any worse off in Rochester than in Minnesota. Sure, there are no guarantees he'll get going in AAA, but there were similarly no guarantees that he'd get going again with the Twins. It also seems pretty well established that the Twins aren't fond of his personality, or work ethic, or something, so maybe more than a "let's shake things up" move, it's their way of saying "if you don't want to listen to us, you don't have to be here." Which sometimes works as a motivational tool and sometimes doesn't.

        1. So, you're saying that instead of "let's shake things up", the Twins are saying "let's shake Valencia up." 🙂

          1. Well, I think first and foremost they're sending Valencia to AAA because he's playing like crap, but yeah, as a secondary measure, they're saying "let's shake Valencia up."

    4. There is one way in which this move might marginally make sense. If Valencia is as bad on defense as the Twins generally make him out to be, then this could improve the infield defense, and given how bad the pitching staff is, and particularly how they are completely unable to strike out hitters, an upgrade in defense could go farther than it might under more normal circumstances.

      Also, Dude, AG's thinking about player development seems very uptight. Sure, in optimal cases you start off a player at short A, then move him to full-season A, then AA, then AAA, and then he sticks in the big leagues. But life is often messier than that, and while sometimes you have to struggle at a new level to figure it out, sometimes you take a step back and try to remember how you got there in the first place. Is that what's wrong with Valencia? I don't know, but right now his LD% is 14.1%, which is quite bad--much worse than even last year--and Valencia's value depends largely on whether or not he hits.

      I agree with the idea that in the long-term, Valencia probably has some value as a platoon player, but in the short-term, he's been just so bad this year (by measures that generally don't vary much month to month--SO%, BB%, LD%) that I don't see any real point in suggesting that giving him some time in AAA is going to hurt his development. I think a team with a deeper bench could probably have tried some other tactics to get him on track, but stunting his development by sending him to AAA is pretty much the least of the Twins' concerns at the moment.

      1. I'm not seeing a suggestion that his development would be stunted or hurt. I'm seeing the idea that he's not all that young and his development is likely mostly over, so him continuing (or getting back to) developing more in AAA is unlikely.

        1. Maybe I'm a crazy lunatic, but I think of player development as the process of helping a player realize his potential. And today, Valencia is a broken player. He has historical performance that indicates he is currently performing below his potential. Sure, he's not all that young, but he's also not so old that we should expect his performance to completely fall off a cliff.

          1. I'm just saying, you seemed to be criticizing someone (AG? Someone else?) for making the suggestion that going to AAA would hurt or stunt him, when I haven't seen anyone make that suggestion - certainly not in the piece SBG quoted.

            1. I have overreacted to his statement about development, but his larger position is that these moves are change for the sake of change, rather than change for the sake of improving the team, or improving the performance of anyone involved in the changes. Sure, he's not suggesting outright that going to AAA is going to hurt or stunt Valencia, but it's pretty clear that he doesn't think it's going to help him.

      2. Interesting comment from Stohs:

        Consider this as well... if Valencia spent the whole season with the Twins, he would most likely be a Super 2 and make a bunch of money next year. If he goes down for a month (maybe 5 weeks), something clicks and he turns the career around, the Twins get an extra year of time at near-league minimum.

    5. Valencia seems to be taking it like a man at least:

      It's hard not to say I didn't see it coming because I haven't been hitting very well," he said. "I've been inconsistent. My defense has been good, but I'm a guy that needs to contribute offensively. He's right, they're right. I just have to go down there and work hard.

      Let's hope he can learn/find something in AAA.

  5. LeBron's pretty good:

    LeBron James had 29 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists -- all team highs -- in the Miami Heat's series-clinching win over the New York Knicks on Wednesday night. It was the 20th time in his pro career that James led his team outright in points, rebounds and assists in a playoff game. That's by far the highest such total for any player in NBA history.

  6. In my first step towards my triathlon, I just ran 4.43K in 25:04. My goal is to run the entire 5K portion in 23:00. So factoring in the fact I was 500m short and 2 minutes over, plus the fatigue of swimming and biking first, I really need to shave 3+ minutes off my 5K time.

    1. If I thought there was any way I could do the swim, I would do the tri with you.

    2. If you're just starting up your running after being off for a while, you should be able to build up your pace rather quickly if you train properly.

      1. Yeah, I'm pretty used to the "run regularly"-"take 6 months off" cycle. I usually drop 2 minutes in 2-3 weeks just by getting the rust off. I'm not too worried about it, as long as I keep with it.

        1. Mags - that's a good pace - you're set. Just be thinking about T1 and T2 and you'll be fine.

  7. Has there been any word yet on when the P.J. Walters replica jerseys will go on sale?

  8. I think I successfully avoided mentioning anything about 13-pitcher situation yesterday (trying to keep from becoming a caricature of myself) but after the "big shake-up" last night, I feel compelled to note that there are still 13 pitchers on the roster. I guess with that many pitchers, it's no wonder the Twins feel like they need three catchers. Have they noticed it's not still spring training, though?

    Other notes: P.J. Walters has traditionally not been able to throw strikes very well, or at least he's usually had a pretty high walk rate (3-4+ BB/9). But in Rochester he's kept that down to 1.6 BB/9 over 33.1 IP. His strikeout rate is down some, but at 6.8 K/9, it's still respectable. Could be small sample size, but presumably the Twins feel like he's made some changes to his approach. He'll probably still be a replacement-level pitcher, but there's a chance he's gone Dennys Reyes on the Twins. It happen sometimes.

    .302/.389/.434 -- Erik Komatsu, L, minors
    .279/.368/.371 -- Darin Mastroianni, R, minors

    Both players play all three outfield positions, both are fairly marginal hitters. (If Komatsu was bigger, maybe he'd have some power potential and room to be intriguing, but that is not the case.) But they hit from different sides of the plate. Could it be a platoon? A girl can dream.

    1. Damn, I meant to say something last night about Gardy taking ubes' advice and letting two relievers pitch the final five innings. It was nice to see Duensing pitch more than an inning.

        1. 8 relief pitchers and...
          .
          Capps has faced just nine batters in the first nine days of May
          Burnett has pitched just three times in nine days in May
          Duensing has pitched just six innings (including three last night) in the past twelve days
          Grey has pitched just four times and thrown just 3.1 innings in the past fifteen days
          Burton has faced just six batters in May
          Swarzak has pitched just 3.2 innings in the past two weeks
          Perkins has pitched just four innings in the past two weeks
          Maloney had faced just six batters in the last fifteen days

          I mean, seriously. WTF?! At least one, if not TWO, of those guys could easily be replaced by some bench flexibility. It's not like anyone is even getting close to being run into the ground out there.

          2. Also, IMO, a lot of what runs pitchers into the ground is when managers get obsessed with the match-up game and have everyone warming up every day in every situation. Part of what you gain from a 6-man bullpen is that you can't be constantly warming up pitchers "just in case" since you might need those guys fresh for the next day.

          3. The Twins just called up Drew Butera, Erik Komatsu, and Darin Mastroianni. It's obvious that there aren't any position players to call up! Go to 14 pitchers!

            1. Well, that's the thing. Historically, the Twins have built primarily through their farm system. For whatever reasons, the farm system has let them down in recent years. Ultimately, if the Twins are going to get good again, the farm system is going to have to be the main driver of their improvement. Which means, of course, that improvement is going to take some time.

          4. The Twins by far have the fewest number of relief appearances on 0 days rest in baseball with 7. The Tigers have the most with 25. Of course, if you're almost never within two runs of the opponent late in the game, you'll just put out the pitcher who has been rested, but still.

    2. Dozier won't go down when Morneau comes back, so it probably will be between Parmelee and Swarzak. Maybe Butera. Of course, if the Twins can't stay close in late game situations, Gardy won't realize he has no bench to use to pinch hit.

  10. Not that anyone is asking, but here is what I would do:

    Sp - blckburn, diamond, pavano, marquis, liriano
    rp - swarzak, perkins, burton, capps, duensing, burnett
    c mauer, doumit
    1b morneau, parmalee
    2b casilla, carroll
    3b burroughs, valencia
    ss dozier
    of plouffe, revere, span, willingham, komatsu

    Batting order:
    span
    mauer
    willingham
    morneau
    doumit
    burroughs/valencia
    dozier
    carroll
    revere/plouffe

    Platoon burroughs and valencia. Platoon plouffe and revere in left field. Have doumit, morneau, mauer and parmalee for c/1b/dh. Move willingham to rf.

    I know this wouldn't do much with sp with era of 7 but at least it feels like it would play to players' strengths and put them in a situation to succeed.

    1. I think that looks better than what the Twins have been doing. Would you still have Liriano in the rotation after the start he's had? I guess at this point it seems reasonable to let him sort out his issues in long relief. If I had to make a bet, I'd say he's basically done as a productive starting pitcher, but you never know.

      The Valencia/Burroughs platoon would look a lot better with a better left-handed third baseman, which I imagine you would prefer as well. I guess in a more perfect world, I would convert the Parmelee and Burroughs roster spots into one left-handed hitter who can play third base and first base. Presumably you'd want Morneau, Mauer, and Doumit getting a lot of the playing time at C/1B/DH, so there wouldn't be a ton of playing time for Parmelee. That would free up a roster spot to add something like a right-handed PH/DH/OF, or whatever.

      1. The 5th starter and lh 3b are definitely issues. Maybe use swarzak for a few starts to see if liriano can do anything in middle relief.

        Maybe you use valencia against rhp that don't have good breaking stuff to help him gain some confidence. Maybe have casilla aet 2b and carroll at 3b against tough rhp.

        I feel like tk used to almost baby young players by picking their spots to build them up. Gardy just throws them in every day in the heart of the order.

        1. It does seem like there should be a way to give the new guys a little bit of a soft landing without taking away their playing time altogether.

      2. guess in a more perfect world, I would convert the Parmelee and Burroughs roster spots into one left-handed hitter who can play third base and first base.

        In a perfect world? They'd both be Babe Ruth, I'd have seats behind home plate, Joe Mauer would marry my sister and instead of TC we'd have a unicorn. A real one.

    1. Since the only player I've ever seen thrown out by that move was Punto, I don't see this really affecting the game much.

      1. I've never understood why so many people seem to get so upset by that move. Sure, it usually doesn't work, but once in a while it does. If it doesn't, so what? It's not like it slows the ball game down any more than a lot of other things. What's the big deal?

        1. It should have have been a balk to begin with, at least my basic understanding of a balk is when the pitcher attempts to deceive a runner. How is faking a throw not an attempt at deception?

        2. Taken from Wikipedia: "the purpose of the balk rule is to prevent the pitcher from deliberately befuddling the base runner (per comment to Rule 8.05, OBR)."

          To me, that's a move designed to befuddle, and thus not in the spirit of the game.

          Of course, I also love the hidden ball trick, so whatever.

          2. I think it makes sense to get rid of it under that motivation, but I find the timing odd. Why now? If we're going to start changing the balk rule, it seems like it'd be nice to simplify it somehow. That's a lot harder, of course, but the balk rule is kind of a monstrosity as it currently stands.

      2. Jesse Crain pulled it off once, IIRC. Dude had the quickest feet of any pitcher I've seen.

    2. Sounds like Scioscia's against the change. Sounds like I'm for it.
      (Actually, I am for it if it leads to more balks being called. Balks are fun and there aren't enough of them. I still fondly remember balks by Jeremy Bonderman and Bob Wickman.)

      1. I don't think you'd like balks that much if there were a lot more of them. In the 1987 World Series, Whitey Herzog whined about Blyleven not coming to a full stop in the stretch and balking all the time. As a result, Fay Vincent instructed the umpires to be more strict about calling balks in 1988. It seemed like, in the first part of the season, balks were being called constantly. It did not improve the game.

  13. From the MLB writeup for tonight's game:

    He (Henderson Alvarez) gets a Twins squad that's among the weakest teams in the league offensively, which should be a good matchup for the youngster, who challenges opposing hitters by pitching to contact.

    Heh. Maybe we can trade Liriano to Toronto so they can teach him how to do that.

    1. 1. Denard Span, CF
      2. Brian Dozier, SS
      3. Joe Mauer, 1B
      4. Josh Willingham, DH
      5. Ryan Doumit, C
      6. Trevor Plouffe, 3B
      7. Erik Komatsu, RF
      8. Darin Mastroianni, LF
      9. Jamey Carroll, 2B

      Interesting lineup. Plouffe gets the first start at third, which probably means Casilla is still ailing. That's a lot of speed in the OF. Too bad it won't be Radke on the hill, or even Baker. This season, I've even been pining for Carlos Silva.

    2. new NBC Comedies tonight so I dont know how much of the game I'll watch before 9pm

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