These NBA Finals have everything, except for the Heat losing.
78 thoughts on “June 18, 2012: Almost Perfect”
you know its going to be a scorcher when the temp is 75 degrees at 5:30 am.
Muggy too. My glasses were fogged up my entire ride into work.
That's every day here, unfortunately. We're firmly in "110 or so every day" territory here. I work about four blocks from where I live, but I have to drive if I don't want to be drenched in sweat by the time I get there.
at least the commute's short?
That was quite the thunderstorm last night. Very loud.
I'd love the occasional thunderstorm. We haven't had one here since shortly after I moved here. We had another dust storm two days ago, though...
Are you sure you want some humidity to go with that 110F temp?
Well, no. I'm pretty sure I don't want that part of it.
That's one thing I really missed living in DC - big, prarie thunderstorms.
yeah, lack of seasons (including thunderstorms) was something I really missed when living in LA. Mrs. Runner is quite the weather fiend, so living in StL is a treat for someone who grew up missing out.
I hear you both. I lived in DC and missed the storms; moved to LA two years ago and miss the storms. Best thing about LA, contrary to what most feel, is that it never gets too hot, not that it doesn't get too cold. As long as you don't venture too far from the coast, that is... but even then, the humidity doesn't compare to DC or MinneSwampolis.
You're embarrassing yourself by calling Minneapolis humid. Try a StL summer sometime. Or Houston, if you know how to breathe underwater.
Minnesota isn't great, but it's not as bad as it gets, that's for sure. DC was brutal.
Or New Orleans...
Oh yeah. I built a big fat ol' love for those hanging out on my wife's family's farm. Crazy how quickly you can miss something like that.
Yeah, I didn't even realize what it was I was missing until about August or so when I found myself thinking "JUST RAIN DAMN YOU!"
Ireland and Prague both lack the type of huge, violent thunderstorms we experiencing here, and I always miss them and enjoy them extra when I'm back.
So, recapping my last twenty-five hours or so: I got to Onida at 8:00 yesterday morning for worship at 8:30. As soon as that's over, get in the car and go to Agar for worship at 9:30 (they generally start without me). As soon as that's over, get in the car and go to Gettysburg for worship at 11:00. Then, get some lunch, do some office work for an hour or so, then go to the nursing home for worship at 2:30. As soon as that's over, get in the car and head back to Onida for Vacation Bible School. Get half-way there, get a call from the nursing home that one of the residents has passed away. Turn around, come back to Gettysburg, spend a couple of hours with the family. Grab a bacon cheeseburger at the convenience store, get back in the car, and head back to Onida for what's left of VBS. Get up this morning, and at 6:30 get a call from the nursing home that another of the residents has passed away. Spend a couple hours with the family and head to the office.
This week, I'll have our regular Wednesday worship service, two prayer services, two funerals, and a memorial service. Plus, get ready for Sunday worship services, which will be a little more complicated than normal because Gettysburg is having a special worship service in the park this week. Oh, and VBS continues in Onida the rest of the week.
I don't mean to complain, because I really do love what I do, but there is such a thing as too much of a good thing.
Everybody gotta serve some body.
Keep up the good works, Padre.
They say, as bad as a pastor's hours are, a pastor's wife's are worse. 😉
Mrs. A is an incredible blessing to me. I don't know how I could be a pastor without her.
I think your arrivals (and departures) would be much more dramatic on horseback.
I agree. And I believe the church does have a tradition of circuit riding.
therefore, my beloved brethren, be ye stedfast, unmoveable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, forasmuch as ye know that your labour is not in vain in the Lord.
Thankfully no one (few?)listened to Mags and my Euro2012 podcast. I think two of the teams we had in the semi's didn't even make it out of group play and there's 2 more group play results to play out. I do think my prediction of Germany taking it all is still pretty solid.
I listened to half of it while I got ready for work one morning. I've never had much interest in the game with the feet and the ball, but the podcast kept my attention, anyway.
Yeah, we are not doing well so far. We are 2/4 on the completed Groups.
Evidence of our ability
Heh, now Croatia is out too. Half baked I tells ya.
I can't even imagine what 2.5 years of Willingham on a team-friendly contract should buy. Strassburg+?
I sort of hate the idea of trading Span since I like the guy, but if they could get, say, Jordan Zimmerman for him in a deal, I'd be in favor of it.
I hate getting rid of either. The Hammer is just the RH bat we've needed in the lineup, and Span's a great leadoff guy. That said, beats me who (is worth some value that) I wouldn't mind seeing traded.
I hear you. But when I think about when we could have another good Twins team... it ain't next year. And it's probably not the year after that either. So if neither of those guys are probably even going to play on a good Twins team it makes it a little easier.
Now, are the Twins going to want to tell the fans that they're punting on the next two years? No. But maybe they should.
We were all convinced the Twins weren't going to be any good in 2008 and look how that turned out. I can't imagine the Twins trading Willingham. Span I could see because they have Revere to move over to center. Sort of like an A.J. trade, except Revere is already in the majors and isn't nearly the prospect that Mauer was, but still the Twins would be fine with him as an everyday CF. I still think Span is better, but the difference isn't that great and the hope would be that this would improve the starting pitching, which is a disaster area.
Well, then trade one this year while their value is higher and one next year if we suck. Bets: hedged.
Might there be concerns over Span's durability? And Revere's value is high right now maybe Revere could be worth nearly as much as Span? I don't like seeing Revere go either, though.
To be fair, the Twins weren't all that good in 2008. 6th in wOBA and 7th in xFIP. Better than expected? Sure, but from where I sit, they were an average team with some good luck.
The current team? They have more hitting than pitching, but I'm not sure trading one for the other gets them very far, since the hitting has yet to reach average.
Drew Storen!
Throw in Tyler Clippard and you've got a deal!
Haha, no. Would be nice though. Willingham is being paid $7 million/season, so that's a bit more than an expected win per season. A reasonable expectation would be for him to average two wins/season for the contract, meaning the Nationals would be paying for 2.5 wins and getting 5 wins, or a +2.5.
Strasburg has one more year at the minimum and then three years of arbitration. He'll make a bunch in arbitration, but it's entirely reasonable to expect him to average four wins for the next few years. That would be four free years in 2013, about three in 2014, and trending down until he reaches arbitration. I would guess he could contribute +10 net wins until free agency.
Oh yeah, I know that one's not going to happen. I just think Willingham has so much value in a trade as to be worth a very highly ranked prospect.
The key here is that executives from other organizations have wondered about Span's and Willingham's availability. Well, bloggers living in their mother's basement have wondered the same thing, but it doesn't mean they would actually be available in a trade. What Terry Ryan said is completely reasonable--the Twins are short on pitching. He didn't say anything about making a desperate trade. For that matter, how about a contest? What's the most desperate trade Terry Ryan has ever made?
That said, I think that it would make sense to explore trading Span or Willingham. If there are good outcomes in the Twins' future, it probably has something to do with some combination of Hicks, Benson, Sano, Revere, and Plouffe becoming decent big leaguers. "Decent" is of course a pretty meaningless term, but for more concrete examples say Revere is roughly Jacque Jones and Plouffe is roughly Michael Cuddyer (with a little less bat and a little more glove.) At least one of those guys is bound to fall on his face, but even with 4 out of 5 making it (say everyone but Benson), in 2014 you could be looking at:
And that's probably more outfielders than you would need in 2014. The advantage to the Twins' position here is that they are so far from contending that they don't really need to do anything. If someone wants Span or Willingham, wait until they blow your socks off or don't make a move at all. You could also conceivably trade one of the other guys from that list, but for various reasons, I have a hard time seeing a really good deal come from that.
No, he didn't say anything about making a desperate trade. And I never said Terry's made desperate trades in the past. Just a little caution that now isn't the time to start.
hat's the most desperate trade Terry Ryan has ever made?
Shannon Stewart?
....
???
Did he make the Rick Reed trade? That one bothered me.
yes. Reed for Matt Lawton.
I think that was a pretty good trade. Leading up to '01, Reed had:
2.8 fWAR - '98
1.5 fWAR - '99
2.4 fWAR - '00
And with the Mets in '01 he had 2.8 fWAR at the time of the trade.
Leading up to '01, Lawton had:
3.3 fWAR - '98
0.3 fWAR - '99
2.4 fWAR - '00
With the Twins in '01 he had 2.2 fWAR at the time of the trade.
I think a reasonable case could be made for that being an awfully even trade
Going by fWAR Reed vs. Lawton in the remainder of '01 through '03 was:
0.7 to 0.8 -- '01 (essentially even)
2.9 to 1.3 -- '02, in favor of Reed
1.4 to 0.6 -- '03, in favor of Reed
So TR arguably got the better end of the deal in hindsight, though that may have been luck. A conspiracy theorist might venture that TR had some inside info on Lawton, but I don't know if I'd go that far.
I didn't like trading the leadoff hitter during a pennant race. Especially to a team that was out of it.
I'm gonna say Luis Castillo for Butters. That one smacked of desperation. 😉
say Revere is roughly Jacque Jones
I am giggling, imagining Revere throwing balls wildly all over the half of the outfield between the fences and second base. Or did you mean in WAR terms? 😉
Meaning good range on defense but a minus arm, with some value at the plate. Basically both can/could catch the ball enough to play center, but their arm moves them to a corner (ideally LF in my view.) Through 162 games, Revere has a .293 wOBA, which is low, but he seems to have the tools to hit for a high average and he's hitting for a high average so far this year, which is an improvement over last year. Jones' career .332 wOBA seems like a reasonable target.
I believe Juan Pierre is the comp that's been thrown around here before, which is probably a better comparison for a best-case scenario, but Jones had less value and is a more conservative projection value-wise.
Deutsch question -
Is there anyway to tell by listening if the speaker is using "sie" (they) or "Sie" (you formal)? It looks like the verb endings are the same. Usually, there will be some sort of context, but in general is there away to tell without extra info?
Ich weiss nichts.
Just use the formal until told otherwise. Or try going from Sie to shining sie
No, but if you need a sentence to be indignant that someone isn't using the formal Sie I got one.
Dating me, but saw a bottle of tape cleaner on the raised floor in a computer installation west of Frankfurt back in the 80's. The name of the product went entirely around the bottle.
So the MN bar examiners this year decided to do all the application stuff online for the first time ever. Of course, somehow they managed to create two separate online accounts for me, and I had been accessing the "wrong" one for the past three months. I just found out 30 minutes ago that they have been waiting for 2 months for me to submit a few supplemental forms. Ugh.
If it makes you feel any better, the unclear directions from the MN bar examiners led to me needing to take the bar exam in MN even though I could have been waived in just 2 weeks earlier. They're not exactly customer-friendly.
and you expected an organization whose job it is to maintain barriers to entry to be friendly how?
I expected their rules to be decipherable to fellow attorneys. That's all.
Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes... well he eats you.
Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon both have more All-Star votes than Josh Willingham. Seriously?
He has some very powerful friends in what turned out to be an embarrassingly politicized trial that made asses of people on both sides. What a clusterfrick.
I'm not shocked, but I am disappointed.
"Justice won out". Heh.
RA Dickey has another 1-hit CGSHO. Also racked up 13 k's against the Orioles.
Wow. Maybe the Twins should make all their guys who lose their UCL learn the knuckler.
you know its going to be a scorcher when the temp is 75 degrees at 5:30 am.
Muggy too. My glasses were fogged up my entire ride into work.
That's every day here, unfortunately. We're firmly in "110 or so every day" territory here. I work about four blocks from where I live, but I have to drive if I don't want to be drenched in sweat by the time I get there.
at least the commute's short?
That was quite the thunderstorm last night. Very loud.
I'd love the occasional thunderstorm. We haven't had one here since shortly after I moved here. We had another dust storm two days ago, though...
Are you sure you want some humidity to go with that 110F temp?
Well, no. I'm pretty sure I don't want that part of it.
That's one thing I really missed living in DC - big, prarie thunderstorms.
yeah, lack of seasons (including thunderstorms) was something I really missed when living in LA. Mrs. Runner is quite the weather fiend, so living in StL is a treat for someone who grew up missing out.
I hear you both. I lived in DC and missed the storms; moved to LA two years ago and miss the storms. Best thing about LA, contrary to what most feel, is that it never gets too hot, not that it doesn't get too cold. As long as you don't venture too far from the coast, that is... but even then, the humidity doesn't compare to DC or MinneSwampolis.
You're embarrassing yourself by calling Minneapolis humid. Try a StL summer sometime. Or Houston, if you know how to breathe underwater.
Minnesota isn't great, but it's not as bad as it gets, that's for sure. DC was brutal.
Or New Orleans...
Oh yeah. I built a big fat ol' love for those hanging out on my wife's family's farm. Crazy how quickly you can miss something like that.
Yeah, I didn't even realize what it was I was missing until about August or so when I found myself thinking "JUST RAIN DAMN YOU!"
Ireland and Prague both lack the type of huge, violent thunderstorms we experiencing here, and I always miss them and enjoy them extra when I'm back.
So, recapping my last twenty-five hours or so: I got to Onida at 8:00 yesterday morning for worship at 8:30. As soon as that's over, get in the car and go to Agar for worship at 9:30 (they generally start without me). As soon as that's over, get in the car and go to Gettysburg for worship at 11:00. Then, get some lunch, do some office work for an hour or so, then go to the nursing home for worship at 2:30. As soon as that's over, get in the car and head back to Onida for Vacation Bible School. Get half-way there, get a call from the nursing home that one of the residents has passed away. Turn around, come back to Gettysburg, spend a couple of hours with the family. Grab a bacon cheeseburger at the convenience store, get back in the car, and head back to Onida for what's left of VBS. Get up this morning, and at 6:30 get a call from the nursing home that another of the residents has passed away. Spend a couple hours with the family and head to the office.
This week, I'll have our regular Wednesday worship service, two prayer services, two funerals, and a memorial service. Plus, get ready for Sunday worship services, which will be a little more complicated than normal because Gettysburg is having a special worship service in the park this week. Oh, and VBS continues in Onida the rest of the week.
I don't mean to complain, because I really do love what I do, but there is such a thing as too much of a good thing.
Everybody gotta serve some body.
Keep up the good works, Padre.
They say, as bad as a pastor's hours are, a pastor's wife's are worse. 😉
Mrs. A is an incredible blessing to me. I don't know how I could be a pastor without her.
I think your arrivals (and departures) would be much more dramatic on horseback.
I agree. And I believe the church does have a tradition of circuit riding.
therefore, my beloved brethren, be ye stedfast, unmoveable, always abounding in the work of the Lord, forasmuch as ye know that your labour is not in vain in the Lord.
Thankfully no one (few?)listened to Mags and my Euro2012 podcast. I think two of the teams we had in the semi's didn't even make it out of group play and there's 2 more group play results to play out. I do think my prediction of Germany taking it all is still pretty solid.
I listened to half of it while I got ready for work one morning. I've never had much interest in the game with the feet and the ball, but the podcast kept my attention, anyway.
Yeah, we are not doing well so far. We are 2/4 on the completed Groups.
Evidence of our ability
Heh, now Croatia is out too. Half baked I tells ya.
Bicycles and sausages don't mix well.
Things seem to go from bad to wurst.
Zing.
Twins seek pitching.
Willingham, or Span? Terry, don't be desperate...
I can't even imagine what 2.5 years of Willingham on a team-friendly contract should buy. Strassburg+?
I sort of hate the idea of trading Span since I like the guy, but if they could get, say, Jordan Zimmerman for him in a deal, I'd be in favor of it.
I hate getting rid of either. The Hammer is just the RH bat we've needed in the lineup, and Span's a great leadoff guy. That said, beats me who (is worth some value that) I wouldn't mind seeing traded.
I hear you. But when I think about when we could have another good Twins team... it ain't next year. And it's probably not the year after that either. So if neither of those guys are probably even going to play on a good Twins team it makes it a little easier.
Now, are the Twins going to want to tell the fans that they're punting on the next two years? No. But maybe they should.
We were all convinced the Twins weren't going to be any good in 2008 and look how that turned out. I can't imagine the Twins trading Willingham. Span I could see because they have Revere to move over to center. Sort of like an A.J. trade, except Revere is already in the majors and isn't nearly the prospect that Mauer was, but still the Twins would be fine with him as an everyday CF. I still think Span is better, but the difference isn't that great and the hope would be that this would improve the starting pitching, which is a disaster area.
Well, then trade one this year while their value is higher and one next year if we suck. Bets: hedged.
Might there be concerns over Span's durability? And Revere's value is high right now maybe Revere could be worth nearly as much as Span? I don't like seeing Revere go either, though.
To be fair, the Twins weren't all that good in 2008. 6th in wOBA and 7th in xFIP. Better than expected? Sure, but from where I sit, they were an average team with some good luck.
The current team? They have more hitting than pitching, but I'm not sure trading one for the other gets them very far, since the hitting has yet to reach average.
Drew Storen!
Throw in Tyler Clippard and you've got a deal!
Haha, no. Would be nice though. Willingham is being paid $7 million/season, so that's a bit more than an expected win per season. A reasonable expectation would be for him to average two wins/season for the contract, meaning the Nationals would be paying for 2.5 wins and getting 5 wins, or a +2.5.
Strasburg has one more year at the minimum and then three years of arbitration. He'll make a bunch in arbitration, but it's entirely reasonable to expect him to average four wins for the next few years. That would be four free years in 2013, about three in 2014, and trending down until he reaches arbitration. I would guess he could contribute +10 net wins until free agency.
Oh yeah, I know that one's not going to happen. I just think Willingham has so much value in a trade as to be worth a very highly ranked prospect.
The key here is that executives from other organizations have wondered about Span's and Willingham's availability. Well, bloggers living in their mother's basement have wondered the same thing, but it doesn't mean they would actually be available in a trade. What Terry Ryan said is completely reasonable--the Twins are short on pitching. He didn't say anything about making a desperate trade. For that matter, how about a contest? What's the most desperate trade Terry Ryan has ever made?
That said, I think that it would make sense to explore trading Span or Willingham. If there are good outcomes in the Twins' future, it probably has something to do with some combination of Hicks, Benson, Sano, Revere, and Plouffe becoming decent big leaguers. "Decent" is of course a pretty meaningless term, but for more concrete examples say Revere is roughly Jacque Jones and Plouffe is roughly Michael Cuddyer (with a little less bat and a little more glove.) At least one of those guys is bound to fall on his face, but even with 4 out of 5 making it (say everyone but Benson), in 2014 you could be looking at:
Plouffe 3B/OF
Sano DH/3B
Revere LF/CF/RF
Willingham LF/RF
Hicks CF
Span CF
And that's probably more outfielders than you would need in 2014. The advantage to the Twins' position here is that they are so far from contending that they don't really need to do anything. If someone wants Span or Willingham, wait until they blow your socks off or don't make a move at all. You could also conceivably trade one of the other guys from that list, but for various reasons, I have a hard time seeing a really good deal come from that.
No, he didn't say anything about making a desperate trade. And I never said Terry's made desperate trades in the past. Just a little caution that now isn't the time to start.
hat's the most desperate trade Terry Ryan has ever made?
Shannon Stewart?
....
???
Did he make the Rick Reed trade? That one bothered me.
yes. Reed for Matt Lawton.
I think that was a pretty good trade. Leading up to '01, Reed had:
2.8 fWAR - '98
1.5 fWAR - '99
2.4 fWAR - '00
And with the Mets in '01 he had 2.8 fWAR at the time of the trade.
Leading up to '01, Lawton had:
3.3 fWAR - '98
0.3 fWAR - '99
2.4 fWAR - '00
With the Twins in '01 he had 2.2 fWAR at the time of the trade.
I think a reasonable case could be made for that being an awfully even trade
Going by fWAR Reed vs. Lawton in the remainder of '01 through '03 was:
0.7 to 0.8 -- '01 (essentially even)
2.9 to 1.3 -- '02, in favor of Reed
1.4 to 0.6 -- '03, in favor of Reed
So TR arguably got the better end of the deal in hindsight, though that may have been luck. A conspiracy theorist might venture that TR had some inside info on Lawton, but I don't know if I'd go that far.
I didn't like trading the leadoff hitter during a pennant race. Especially to a team that was out of it.
I'm gonna say Luis Castillo for Butters. That one smacked of desperation. 😉
I am giggling, imagining Revere throwing balls wildly all over the half of the outfield between the fences and second base. Or did you mean in WAR terms? 😉
Meaning good range on defense but a minus arm, with some value at the plate. Basically both can/could catch the ball enough to play center, but their arm moves them to a corner (ideally LF in my view.) Through 162 games, Revere has a .293 wOBA, which is low, but he seems to have the tools to hit for a high average and he's hitting for a high average so far this year, which is an improvement over last year. Jones' career .332 wOBA seems like a reasonable target.
I believe Juan Pierre is the comp that's been thrown around here before, which is probably a better comparison for a best-case scenario, but Jones had less value and is a more conservative projection value-wise.
Deutsch question -
Is there anyway to tell by listening if the speaker is using "sie" (they) or "Sie" (you formal)? It looks like the verb endings are the same. Usually, there will be some sort of context, but in general is there away to tell without extra info?
Ich weiss nichts.
Just use the formal until told otherwise. Or try going from Sie to shining sie
Willkommen to the wonderful world of Deutsch.
No, but if you need a sentence to be indignant that someone isn't using the formal Sie I got one.
Dating me, but saw a bottle of tape cleaner on the raised floor in a computer installation west of Frankfurt back in the 80's. The name of the product went entirely around the bottle.
So the MN bar examiners this year decided to do all the application stuff online for the first time ever. Of course, somehow they managed to create two separate online accounts for me, and I had been accessing the "wrong" one for the past three months. I just found out 30 minutes ago that they have been waiting for 2 months for me to submit a few supplemental forms. Ugh.
If it makes you feel any better, the unclear directions from the MN bar examiners led to me needing to take the bar exam in MN even though I could have been waived in just 2 weeks earlier. They're not exactly customer-friendly.
and you expected an organization whose job it is to maintain barriers to entry to be friendly how?
I expected their rules to be decipherable to fellow attorneys. That's all.
Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes... well he eats you.
Jeff Francoeur and Alex Gordon both have more All-Star votes than Josh Willingham. Seriously?
Clemens is acquitted. Good job, feds.
He has some very powerful friends in what turned out to be an embarrassingly politicized trial that made asses of people on both sides. What a clusterfrick.
I'm not shocked, but I am disappointed.
"Justice won out". Heh.
RA Dickey has another 1-hit CGSHO. Also racked up 13 k's against the Orioles.
Wow. Maybe the Twins should make all their guys who lose their UCL learn the knuckler.
Sigh.
sean/spoons -- sent a new WGOM banner via fb
I think it will be a popular one.
Twins sign Chargois.
Cash? Or Chargois?