I picked up the Milkmaid from the airport last night; she was in Connecticut for four days at a cousin's wedding. I worked so much that I almost didn't have time to miss her, but it was starting to feel lonely at the end there.
31 thoughts on “February 25, 2013: Normal”
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In my re-viewing of The Wire yesterday I came across what many justifiably think is the best episode in TV ever, the pentultimate episode of Season 3. Wow, just wow. Even though I've seen it before it still packs a punch.
Super-duper spoiler below don't read if you haven't seen The Wire but plan to some day
I recently completed watching the whole 5 seasons last year when they were on my comcast on demand and am hoping HBO will re-show them again so I can watch a second time. I see they put "The Corner" up this month and I flew threw those 6 episodes in a couple nights. Not quite as good as the Wire, but a pretty close.
Fun with numbers. So I just went through all 715 Twins to don a uniform in 52 years and updated based on changes over the years to B-prospectus, B-ref, and Fangraphs calculations of WAR or WARP and found out that in 52 years
The Twins have totalled 4138 actual wins.
The Twins players have totalled:
2043.4 WAR according to Fangraphs
1556.7 WAR according to baseball-reference
1535.2 WARP according to baseball prospectus
What this says is since they have won about 79.5 games per year, fangraphs has them at about 40 wins above replacement level per year meaing their replacement level team should win about 40 games per year. Both B-ref, and B-pros have them only about 30 wins above replacement per year meaning they have a higher standard of replacement player and those replacement level players should win about 50 games per year.
Does this pass the smell test, is it well known that Fangraphs replacement level player is significantly lower than the other 2? Or have the Twins over/under achieved their metrics over 52 years.
All three have different replacement levels. I don't remember BP's replacement level, but looking at the numbers it must be higher than B-R's. From this BtB post, he notes FG has a replacement level of .265 versus .320 for B-R. Linking to that is this Book Blog post discussing which level is better. The consensus seems to be that FanGraphs is closer to the 'right' mark.
B-R's incredibly helpful WAR Comparison Chart confirms the .265 and .320 levels. Still nothing for BP, but I'm leaning toward .350.
Do you think its interesting that over 52 years (pretty good sample size) the Twins rWAR and WARP are so similar (within 1.5%) even though their threshold of a replacement player is quite diferent?
Yes and no. There are quite a few differences between the two systems, so it could be coincidence. I also don't know for sure that BP always uses a .350 replacement level.
That's logical. A replacement player in 1961 may have been less available in the days pre free-agency/rule5, etc than in 2012.
FYI, the top10 Twins as judged by the 4 main metrics to attempt to all-encompass are
Bill James: Harmon, Rod, Kiby, Tony, Hrbek, Mauer, Kaat, Bert, Allison, Knoblauch
B-Prospectus: Harmon, Rod, Kirby, Tony, Bert, Allison, Mauer, Kaat, Hrbek, Tovar
B-reference: Rod, Harmon, Kirby, Bert, Radke, Tony, Mauer, Knoblauch, Hrbek, Santana
Fangraphs: Harmon, Rod, Bert, Kaat, Kirby, Tony, Radke, Hrbek, Mauer, Allison
Doing a type of BCS grading of the 4 metrics (1 point for 1st place, 2 points for 2nd place) the top 14 are as such:
1. Killebrew 5
2. Carew 7
3. Puckett 14
4. Oliva 20
4. Blyleven 20
6. Mauer 29
7. Kaat 30
8. Hrbek 31
9. Radke 34
10. Allison 37
11. Knoblauch 46
12. Santana 53
13. Gaetti 54
14. Tovar 57
Looks like FSN ditched Ron Coomer because he is moving to K-Twin. I am in the minority here and actually liked when Coomer filled in for Bert.
this paragraph is funny
translation: we play 17 songs with peppy hosts
I like your translation, dw.
"Important sports." I like sports as much as the next guy, but that's pretty funny.
I am not a fan of in game interviews with managers and coaches. So this item about Joe Buck and FS Midwest seems like a terrible idea.
The guy acts like baseball broadcasts are dying a slow death. I think ratings are up in general, aren't they? I would think the Dodgers' recent deal would indicate that there's no need to try something stupid like this.
I'm guessing he hasn't watched (m)any baseball games lately:
They do that at the end of games. They do it in the middle of the game. They do it before the game. Why is this any different?
They don't allow players to tweet during games, by extension I think that should apply to broadcast interviews as well.
I agree, dw. If that ever happens, I will definitely put the TV broadcast on mute.
MMmmmmm. "Cell" phones
yea, I just washed my hands.
Washed your hands and then promptly touched the phone again? Seems like you would want to wash the phone.
I disinfect my phone pretty frequently. But I mean, come on; rub some dirt on it already.
Cool images. I'm all about the hygiene hypothesis though, so bring on the germs!
I'm all about that. My daughter just ate a pretzel stick she found in the couch, as a matter of fact.
I just toss a teaspoon of dirt to most dishes.
Mmmm, who doesn't like to eat dirt?
this is a constant struggle with the wife. she's not full blown sanitize the world, but sometimes I have to fight to keep the boy's hands less than pristine. we're getting weaker as a species, and the bugs are getting stronger.
Apparently, Gordo lost his endorsement deal with the Minnesota Eye people to Dave St. Peter.
Miguel Cabrera destroyed a Papelboner pitch
CT pointed out a very quoteable line at the end of the clip. "was that over the tiki bar!?" definitely needs to be a thing.
if you have a spare half hour, here is a read: What I Learned from Three Days of Watching Baseball with Bill Murray
That was great...thanks for sharing! I didn't think it was possible to like Bill any more. I was wrong.
Ditto. Great read.