Cup of Coffee

March 25, 2013: Anticipation

116 Comments

I haven't really been feeling the itch until now, but with the naming of Hicks as the starting center fielder, I'm ready for some baseball to start. Seven days left.

116 thoughts on “March 25, 2013: Anticipation”

  1. Chris Jaffe, who used to sporadically crash in the old basement, came up with this gem of a fact:

    With the death of former Tigers pitcher Virgil Trucks on Saturday, there is just one person left alive who ever played against the Cubs in a World Series: Ed Mierkowicz, who was a defensive replacement for one inning in the 1945 World Series.

    Two Cubs from the '45 Series are still alive: Andy Pafko and Lennie Merullo.

  2. Ken Rosenthal: "Other clubs like Butera, but Twins plan to stash him at AAA rather than trade him. Too valuable to them if they need a backup."

    1. They probably like him specifically because he's on the Twins and not on their team.

          1. The best news of the entire offseason was probably the trade for Alex Meyer and the subsequent promotion of Hicks. With Meyer's college experience and Hicks as an example, I don't think it is unrealistic to think it is possible that Meyer could be fighting for a spot in the rotation next spring.

                1. I'm glad I re-checked the thread before posting this "news" in another LTE at the bottom.

    4. Good thing the Twins avoided arbitration with Mr. Butera! $700,000 to play in Rochester!

      2. It's official. Butera optioned to Rochester. Wilkin Ramirez will most likely be on the bench with Maestro, Carroll, and Esobar, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

        1. We might have 12 men on our pitching staff, but we sure don't have 12 pitchers there.

  3. This snowstorm we just had has been entertaining in that a flock of 2-3 dozen red-wing blackbirds have hunkered down behind ours and our neighbor's back yards. They've been gung-ho with the bird feeders, and their "song" gives me great memories of summers at the homestead.

  4. That math seems straightforward enough, especially considering Hicks is likely to be better as a 29-year-old veteran than as a 23-year-old rookie and the Twins might actually be contending in 2019. It's not about being cheap, it's about maximizing a player's value before he can leave. But it apparently never factored into the Twins' decision.

    Emphasis mine. Gleeman's disdain and disrespect (at least on his blog) for the Twins front office is disgusting. On his HardballTalk post he's a little less dickish about it, but unless he has some connections I'm not aware of, how does he know the Twins front office is ignorant about service time issues?

    1. Yeah, that was a little strange. Sending down a player just to control his service time isn't allowed (c.f. kerfuffle with Perkins). And I have no doubt that Ryan knows very well that Hicks at 29 is probably a better deal, but the math of having him on the Twins now out-weighed not having him in 2019. If Hicks turns out to be a superstar, then he's going to be signed to a contract that covers some of his free agent years anyway.

    2. This is exactly why I've stopped reading Gleeman entirely. That and all the filler junk and self-linking. I'd suspect that artificially keeping players in the minors - especially on a team where they aren't in any way blocked - is going to damage a team more in the long run than losing a single year of service time on a single player.

      1. while i may not be as crass as the g-man, i'm still kind of confused by the move. you have every justification in sending him to AAA as he's never been there. you just say, hey, you had a great spring, but we want to see how you do against the next level. if it's clear you don't belong there, we'll bring you up. who cares if everyone knows your real reasons, that's completely justifiable. this season's going nowhere, so i guess i don't understand the rush.

        1. Based on his spring training, that justification is weak. It's a pretense, and everyone would know it. Thus, it could really tick off the player. The only real reason for stashing him at AAA is to control service time longer (which, as Sean points out, could lead to some issues ala Perkins).

          But there's lots of reasons to bring him north. Gives the fans something to be excited about. He can learn on the big league club just like he can learn in AAA. He's our best CF option. Basically, everything points to him playing in the bigs, except for service time.

          1. Also, as others have noted, players and agents note which teams do that sort of thing and which teams don't.

        2. I don't really think they have every justification. Salary considerations aside, Hicks is the right man for the job today. That ought to count for something, right? If he struggles, then he'll go to AAA and maybe the Twins will benefit from the dumbest CBA loophole ever to exist. If he succeeds, then he'll be succeeding, helping the Twins win today.

          I think that the service time loophole is really overrated and I'm glad to see the Twins playing for a win today rather than a win 6 years from now.* It might be subjective, but I think that's the sort of attitude that keeps players motivated and makes them more likely to reach their potential with the Twins, rather than becoming disgruntled and ultimately getting shipped off for nothing more than Delmon Young in return.

          *For instance, who is the last WS winner that you can point to and say, "well, it's a good thing that six years ago [Winning Team] kept [Star Player] in the minors for the first two months of the season, otherwise this team really would have struggled.

          1. Mike Berardino has been killing it for the PiPress. A must follow on twitter.

            from the article

            "I think it solidifies to all the fans in Minnesota that none of us are lying when we say we're not rebuilding, that we're here to win baseball games and we're going to compete this year," Mastroianni said. "If we were truly in a rebuilding stage, then I would be the center fielder and Aaron would come up in a couple months when they could save money.

            interesting quote from a guy who got put in the backup position.

      1. I never considered this angle. If his peak is 24-27 instead of 27-29, you could lose value. The odds, of course, say age 29 will be better, but it's not the only factor in the decision.

        1. the odds you cite are conditional on him being good enough to still be around at age 29, right?

    4. also from the Gleeman article

      Ron Gardenhire tends to use speedy center fielders and middle infielders atop the lineup even if they lack strong on-base skills, so it's nice that Hicks is actually a patient hitter.

      must have forgot the 5 years where Denard Span was penciled into that #1 slot in the batting order (when healthy)

      1. In the last three years, Span's OBPs were .331, .328, and .342. That's not terrible, but it's not great for a leadoff hitter. On the other hand, I don't know that they had anyone to put at the top of the lineup who would've been better.

        1. his next sentence talked about Ben Revere's lack of walks. Yes Revere batted leadoff for many game for 2 years, but its because Span was injured and Gardy is not going to put Joe Mauer at the leadoff spot.
          The last great Twins leadoff hitter was .... Chuck Knoblauch?

        2. The leadoff spot was competent, at least. The second spot in the order was the black hole. I'm not sure that's changing this year.

        3. Span's OBP for his career as a leadoff hitter was .354. Not terrible, not great. And as the Padre points out, his last three years have been mediocre in terms of OBP.

          He's only had 102 PA at other spots in the order.

          1. I think that undersells Span as a leadoff hitter. The average OBP for leadoff hitters in the AL last year was .329. Maybe he wasn't Rickey Henderson, but I'm not going to downplay a leadoff hitter with an above-average OBP compared to leadoff hitters.

            1. ubes, where did you get that stat? I was looking for it, but couldn't figure out how to get that split out of b-r (I'm not a subscriber).

              1. Here. On the front page, under "American Lg", the third row has links to league splits, one link for hitting and one link for pitching.

    5. It's a heads-I-win, tails-you-lose argument. If they keep Hicks, they're stupid for not maximizing his value. If they send him down, they're cheapos who don't care about winning.

      1. I think giving up a year of control over a good prospect might be a decent trade-off to give the MN fans a little something to be excited about early in the season. I personally would have sent Hicks down to AAA, but I can understand that the business side of it might be more complex than I'm totally understanding.

  5. For anyone interested, The Current has a giveaway to see Dawes on April 2nd in their private studio or whatever. If you win, you can invite me along, right?

    1. You could join Sheenie, CoC, Mrs. CoC, and me at the show at First Ave in July.

  6. Joan Niesen ‏@JoanNiesen
    I'm excited to announce that I'll be moving to LA at the end of April to work for @FoxSportsWest. Thanks for two fun NBA seasons, Minnesota.

    dang.

    1. Yeah, that sucks. It was pretty obvious she was too good to stick around here for long, though.

    2. I won't miss Tubby too much. But I'll admit that I'm a little mystified by UCLA's dismissal of Ben Howland. 10 years, three final fours, four Pac12 regular season titles? John Wooden's not walking through the doors at Pauley, people.

      1. Who is the U going to find that is better? Oh, how I wish the Bossman would lift his moratorium and make a Brewster reference!

        1. That's a good question. The talent base in the Twin Cities is a little thin compared to other hotbeds, but then, it's also thin in places like Kansas. And who the hell wants to live in Lawrence?

          1. The talent base in the Twin Cities is a little thin compared to other hotbeds

            That's quickly becoming outdated analysis. 2014 will bring 3 top 100 recruits with a bunch of others in the pipeline. Minny is becoming more and more a place to find D-1 candidates and stars.

              1. Oh, I agree that the scene has improved. But Minny still pales [pun not quite intended] compared to, e.g., Chicago, Philly, NYC, and LA. Minneapolis-StPaul-Bloomington is still only the 16th largest Metropolitan Statistical Area in the country.

                There are zero Minnesota kids in the Maxpreps top 100 for 2013; zero in the Rivals.com top 150, and one (83rd) in ESPN's top-100.

          2. who the hell wants to live in Lawrence?

            Not me. As soon as we sell this house we are gone.

            (There are other scenarios where we are gone without a sale, but that's the fastest exit right now)

            1. (There are other scenarios where we are gone without a sale, but that's the fastest exit right now)

              I hope none of those scenarios involve a homeowner's insurance claim.

        3. Another buyout. Oh well, they'll make it up on beer sales, I suppose.

          I couldn't resist.

      2. How ironic would it be that Minnesota fires Tubby to hire Howland, who was fired after losing to Tubby's team.

    3. as I said before, they better have a coach lined up (Flip Saunders?) or firing him is a dumb move

        2. apparently you weren't paying attention when he was coaching at Golden Valley Lutheran!!!111one111!!! Dude knows how to cheat without getting caught the college game!

    4. Im going to miss'Tubby Smith is rumored to be interested in _______ job' and then gets a raise.

    1. I was just thinking I should read that again. Now, if only my commute was more than three minutes, I'd jump at that.

      They did a TV miniseries. It was...cheap, from what I saw, but I didn't see much.

    2. I started listening on my way to work- I really like that there are multiple people doing the voices/roles.

  9. Twins on TV today. Butera sent down and Bert still saying the Twins should carry 3 catchers.

    its going to be a long season.

  11. and why would I fly all the way to Spain to drink Manischewitz and eat matzoh with charoses?

    also, something tells me the Spaniards aren't really all-in on this Passover thing.

    But while the effort to lure Jewish tourists back to Spain is working, some take a more cynical view of local intentions. Judeo-Spanish ethno-musicologist Judith Cohen has been traveling to Ribadavia for 20 years — both as an invited musician and as a tourist — to participate in its festival, which includes a traditional Sephardic wedding parade. She has great affection for the town and its people, yet can't help but feel its Jewish history is being exploited.

    "The festival food [includes] grilled octopus, which isn't kosher and is decorated in stars of David," Cohen tells The Salt. "I find it pretty offensive. The Jewish wedding takes place in a church. To me, they've really appropriated a lot of things and used them to their own advantage. They've even exported these festivals, teaching other towns to do it. One nearby town has stars of David etched into the floor, so you're stepping on them all the time. For a while, there was a deli with a huge display of sausages with labels in the shape of stars of David, inviting Jews to ask about their ham sandwiches. They're my friends, but I feel pretty negative about it."

    1. Pretty weak to draw any conclusions from that study, especially with all of the (pretty credible, imo) rumors about match fixing in soccer. That's going to blow up eventually, I think. Even without that, what's their criteria for "knowledge of the game?" If their point is that people often overestimate their own intelligence, then I suppose it's easy to agree.

      1. If I read the story correctly, they wanted participants to guess the exact game scores. Even in soccer, that's pretty crap-shooty, is it not?

        1. Yeah, I think guessing an exact game score is pretty tough for any sport. Even if you figure teams are going to score at most 3 goals in a soccer game (not terribly realistic depending on the league), you're looking at 16 different possible scores. Even if there was a perfect way to model the outcome of the game, it seems unlikely to me that any of those 16 outcomes would have a better than even chance of occurring.

  13. Twins trade Gonzalo Sanudo to Houston for Mike Kvasnicka. Just looking at their minor league stats, I don't really like the deal, but I assume the Twins know a lot more about these guys than I do. Of course, the Astros know a lot more about these guys than I do, too. And since we're talking about one guy who hasn't played above rookie ball and another who hasn't played above Class A, there's probably a good chance that neither one of them will ever do anything.

    1. Agreed. I like Sanudo a bit more than Kvasnicka, but don't see notable MLB careers for either. Sanudo was about league average in age with a pretty good pitching performance. Kvasnicka was two years older than the league average but had a below average offensive performance. He seems to have good power, but poor plate discipline.

    2. Both players seem pretty mediocre. Sanudo's rate stats seemed somewhat impressive to me at first glance, but then I noticed he's a reliever and then I checked the GCL league leaders and I'm a lot less impressed. The GCL league average is 8.1 SO/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Sanudo's a bit better than that, but adjusting for the fact that he's a reliever, he was probably a below-average relief pitcher in the GCL last year.

      Of course, nothing about Kvasnicka's numbers looks impressive and he's a little on the older side. The only promise I see there is that he's been asked to play right field, third base, and catcher, which is a really strange trio of positions to be assigned to. It's possible that the multiple defensive responsibilities have held back his hitting. If he's good defensively as a catcher, it might make the most sense to try him full-time there, or try him full-time at 3B and drop catching altogether. Since Kvasnicka's a University of Minnesota alum, presumably the Twins have a bunch of scouting on him from his college days.

    3. could it be minor league roster filler move?
      Also Mike Kvasnicka (one of us!!!!!) has played OF, 3B, and C

  14. the Miami Heat have won 26 in a row and have 55 wins on the year. The San Antonio Spurs have tanked a few games by resting players and have 53 wins.

  15. Lohse to Milwaukee for $33M/3yr. I have been relatively high on Lohse for a while now, but I can't help but think last year was his last really good year. I think Boras was smart to get him that 3rd guaranteed year (probably the main reason Lohse didn't sign until now), but I don't think that $11M/year is too far out of line for a pitcher who averaged 2.2 fWAR/year over the last three years.

      1. Naturally. I mean, why move on when you can come back to it every time any free agent pitcher signs a contract?

        2. He just keeps hitting that one note doesn't he?
          httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Dn4Ipu8n8
          (was really hoping to find Chick playing Glass, doesn't look like they've ever even been in the same room.)

  16. Interesting quote from Coomer on leadership from yesterday's broadcast: "We've had guys here through the years that seemed like they were extremely quotable and they were absolutely not a leader, and then you have guys who aren't very quotable but are very much so a leader."

    1. So, he's saying there's no correlation between being a leader and talking to the media? Who knew?

      2. he used the plural, so he could be referencing both of them.

        I've always hated the notion that leading meant "talking a lot."

        1. or painting your face with eyeblack and then doing a lot of screaming and "look at me" dancing.

          but then why should we expect coddled, uneducated 20-something multimillionaires to demonstrate maturity and common sense (even when they get into their 30s)?

  17. I have two words for this. Bull [redacted]. After all the years of the US playing in mud patches through monsoons in all of the non-Canadian/Mexican countries in CONCACAF, now a little bit of snow makes a game unplayable? Please.

    1. Right. I love how these countries have perfectly good national stadiums, yet always schedule the US on some po-dunk high school field that is about twenty yards wide and the game is scheduled for 2:30 in the afternoon at the peak heat/humidity time of day. If you want to play games, you don't get to whine when the hand is on the other foot.

      MIXING METAPHORS IS FUN!!!!

      1. my brother (who follows soccer way more than I do) says that when the US plays in Costa Rica, they have a nice new stadium, yet they play on some run down field with a pitch that is hard as concrete.

        If Costa Rica did not want to play, they should have stayed in the lockerroom and filed the protest, made a call to FIFA and got it sorted out right there.

    1. on the other hand: Why Hiroyuki Nakajima is not the next Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

      Hiroyuki Nakajima is a much better baseball player than Tsuyoshi Nishioka. That's good news for the Oakland Athletics, who signed him to a two-year contract this week, and it's bad news for me, since I just got done writing thousands of words about how the Cardinals should sign Hiroyuki Nakajima. In any case: Here's one good reason to believe Hiroyuki Nakajima is a better player than Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who had a truly awful two-year stint with the Minnesota Twins before going back to Japan.

      It's easy: Tsuyoshi Nishioka was not as good a hitter as Hiroyuki Nakajima, then or now, even though it looked like he was.

      I'm not yet convinced that he is right. But it IS still only spring training.

    1. has 24 points in 30 games.

      that didnt look good for Clutterbuck. Couldnt put any weight on his skate

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