2013 Twins Game Log

2013 Game 21: Rangers at Twins

113 Comments

The Twins finish one of the tougher series on the schedule today as Alexi Ogando faces Kevin Correia, who's silencing critics all over the country with his ace-level pitching. Or maybe it's just early. Either way, the Twins are 10-10, and if baseball was handicapped, they'd certainly be leading the division, yes? Ogando's last two starts have been a bit of a mess, as he's given up seven runs in just over nine innings.

The Rangers haven't been beaten on back-to-back days this season. Huh. Also, they've lost five of their last six day games. Which meaningless statistic will come out on top?! This is so exciting!

I know the Twins aren't going anywhere this season, but it sure is fun to see them try. I'd be more than happy with .500 baseball for as long as I can get it, and a four-game split with Texas is much more than I'd even think to ask for.

113 thoughts on “2013 Game 21: Rangers at Twins”

  2. Interesting nugget from Provus- yesterday was the first time that the Rangers struck out 10 times in a game this season. Baseball is crazy.

  3. On the way back from the race I asked the wife to see if the RockCats were playing today. They do have a home game, but we wouldn't have been able to make it for first pitch. What a great day for outdoor ball.

      1. Some blisters, chafing (even though I thot I 'Glided well), finished well. Nice temps/lite wind were such that I didn't have to deal with too much sweat. What I thought was the finish line was a thing you run under, then go another 1/2 mile and run around a high school track - natch.

        1. I usually use Band Aid Clear Spots for all of my runs now. You can get a box of 50 for under 3 dollars.

          That's gotta be annoying. I use a GPS watch, so that doesn't typically happen, though the end is usually a bit further than I'd expect based on my watch.

          1. To be clear - you apply the Clear Spots before you have an issue, or after it happens?

        1. I'm doing a 5K+ at work on Friday (which is 5.3K for some reason). I don't have anything longer than a 5K planned for the rest of spring. I've been running about 25 miles/week for over a year and then I start playing softball for a month and get injured 3 times. It's pretty frustrating, but at least I haven't put any money down for a big race. I'll play to do at least 2 and probably 3 halves in the fall if I can get healthy again.

          One of my colleagues from the Citadel is trying to do a marathon in every state plus DC and he's finishing up next spring in Kentucky. If I want to think about another full, that might be the one for me to try.

          1. 4 weeks ago, I ruptured my plantarsis muscle. It had a lot of swelling/bruising, but the doc said the muscle is vestigial (not needed) and OK to run. So I was waiting to see how this morning would go before booking anything new.

            Next Sunday there is a duathlon in NY (Trooper Duathlon, West Hurley) that I did last year - nice event - lots of cops show up to protect the bikers. I may do that or the 5 boro NYC ride with the wife, who is applying subtle pressure to do that.

            1. Sounds like a good time. My long term goal is just to travel all over doing half marathons. They're always a good time and it's a good excuse to take a trip somewhere new. I haven't thought about my fall races yet--other than the Baltimore Half--but I'd like to go out of state for one. Either up to Pennsylvania or over to Delaware would be nice.

              1. I like the destination Half idea. We went to Miami (ING Half) in January and really enjoyed that trip. Would be fun to do in different states - unlike Tri don't need to figure out how to schlep your bike.

    1. Yeah, Gameday says definite strike to Berkman- do you think Mauer would've got Andrus at second?

  14. Patrick Reusse ‏@1500ESPN_Reusse
    Jamey Carroll must have been admiring Rangers' base-running this series. That was bad enough to be called "a Cuddyer."

      1. I prefer my catfish pan fried with a cornmeal breading. Blackened red fish, on the other hand, is a different kettle of, er, fish.

    1. Yeah, kinda surprised on that - I tho't the media had an hand's off wink-wink - and let's not give Suzyn more materiel for her blather.

  21. Gameday showing adverts that finish after the first pitch has been tossed in the new inning - MLB fial!

  28. I believe Hicks is now tied for the MLB lead among outfielders with 4 assists. He was tied at 3 with, among others, former Twins Cuddyer and Revere. It's hard to think of two more unalike players than Cuddy and... Bennie. And I've also thought assists are a strange stat: some players get them because their arms are like cannons, others because people dare to run on them. Kind of like interceptions in the NFL - maybe you get a lot early in your career, but once you establish you are great, QBs tend to avoid throwing your way. Would be interesting to quantify any of this.

    1. with Revere, you would think teams on on him because he has a noodle arm. With Cuddy, he misplayed the wall so many times teams have to run on that, but he has a cannon arm (Twins even made a radio commercial about with with Ready, aim, Cuddyer!) to make up

    2. I'd attribute at least two of Hicks' assists to fielding misplays (balls falling in front of him when he misreads them) and poor baserunning (wow, the Rangers are bad on the basepaths), but I'm guessing that holds true for everyone.

      I think you're right that the runners like to challenge the new guy, and I think the assists are a good sign that Hicks is throwing the ball to the right spot when he does get to it.

  29. Also, IF (a big IF) Correa continues to pitch anywhere near as effective as he has to date, how long would it take Gleeman to admit he was wrong? A full season? More? All-Star break?

    1. I'm guessing at least a full season. How many starts does it take to get out of SSS?

    2. Based on his track record it was not a good signing/contract. Hitting the least likely, highest possible outcome does not make something a good process of decision-making at the time.

      1. Playing devil's advocate, IF it turns out to be a good signing, it doesn't have to mean lucky; it could mean the Twins scouting and coaching in this instance outperformed the metrics. Or they have some other advanced metric they use that applied in this case (though less likely). But, to repeat, all depends on a big IF.

      2. I think that position overstates the certainty to which we can evaluate players using statistics alone. Corriea had -0.1 fWAR in 2010 and -0.2 fWAR in 2011, but IIRC, fWAR is based on FIP and not xFIP, and in both of those years, his FIP exceeded his (extremely consistent) xFIP. And it takes a Geneva convention to get two guys to agree to the same replacement level, so I have little confidence that for any given player we know what replacement level is to within, say, half a win.

        I look at Correia's line so far this year, and I see a pitcher with a 4.17 xFIP, with previous xFIPs of 4.34, 4.38, 4.06, and 4.14. Sure, he's not going to keep up this ERA, or even his FIP (given the low HR/FB), and *gasp* he's going to have some bad starts this year, but it's not like he's some 5.50+ xFIP disaster. I just can't believe the attention that a 2-year, $10M contract gets in an era where the median MLB payroll is about $90M. Correia looks like a #4 starter and he's getting paid like one.

        3. And it takes a Geneva convention to get two guys to agree to the same replacement level
          The two biggest guys did come to an agreement though.

          so I have little confidence that for any given player we know what replacement level is to within, say, half a win.
          I disagree, partially, but agree in spirit. I think the replacement level chosen by B-R and FG is very close to the right one. I agree that there are error bars on a player's value. Looking back, we can say Correia was probably closer to 0.4 WAR rather than -0.1 WAR, since he's still employed.

          1. Ubes:And it takes a Geneva convention to get two guys to agree to the same replacement level
            Sean:The two biggest guys did come to an agreement though.
            But I believe that the agreement was finalized and signed somewhere on a lakeshore southwest of Milwaukee.

  31. Intellectually, I know Correia won't be able to keep this up, but I really want him to.

    1. No parkour (that's what I call the jazzification of SSB/GBA) - drives me crazy.

  33. Okay, this is the first I've heard Dick'nBert this year, and it's sickening how quickly their minds go to the sacrifice bunt any time there is a baserunner.

  36. kind of surprising, but with all those walks it makes sense

    Dustin Morse ‏@Twins_morsecode
    With a 7th inning single, Aaron Hicks has now reached base in 10 straight games. #MNTwins

      1. First and second and one out, up three in the 7th -- why are you trying for one run? Nail the door shut, Escobar doesn't strike out much, and he's not likely to get doubled up, if he does get out, odds are decent that it'll do exactly what you're resigning him to do in that situation.

  40. that ejection was hilarious.

    Gardy wanted to get tossed, Marquez would not toss him. Then he finally gave in and Gardy tossed his hands in the air in disbelief.

      1. right
        but with poor throwing by both teams this series, why not try to make the defense make a play?

        I guess Im not bothered that much by the move.

        1. The difference between a 3 run lead and a 4 run lead this late in the game is pretty negligible, though, since the Rangers' chances of winning basically rely on one large inning. Pushing the lead to 5 or 6 runs seems a much more worthwhile goal.

          1. is this true, empirically? what was the win probability added of one run in that situation?

            as it turns out, there's a tool for that.

            (I just did the Win Probability change for 1st and 2nd with no outs vs. 2nd and 3rd with one out in that situation).

  41. Gardy looking forward to his Sobakawa pillow and some Pinot noir. Well deserved, Master!

  42. Hey, so, about that &(*^(*ing bunt.

    A couple of notes.

    * Arcia slid feet first, stop acting like he didn't. He just slid poorly.
    * I chuckled at Beltre lifting Carroll's foot of the base.

    edit: I mean Escobar's, obv.

  43. The Milwaukee Bucks are a playoff team. The Timberwolves should first get a new owner, then petition to move to the Eastern Confernce.

    1. does Brandon Jenning still play with Milwaukee? I have no idea who is playing on that team. h

  46. Rangers guy talks about how impressed with the Twins not hitting into double plays (11 vs. 22 for the Rangers). He doesn't even raise the question of how many baserunners each team has had. How can you not even wonder about that?

    2. Twins have the second-fewest GIDPs in the AL and are league average in OBP and last in slugging. Sounds like they have had plenty of DP chances.

    3. Aw, I found it on B-Ref in situational hitting. Twins hit into DP just 7 percent of the time, which is second best to Astros. Twins have fifth-lowest GB/FB ratio in AL, so they should have a low GIDP percentage, although probably not that low.

  47. Gameday is blazenly showing crap-videos well into the beginning of the inning. Stop That!

  51. the Twins have won 4 series (2 three games 2 two games with games to be made up due to snow), lost 2 (Mets series still has a make up game) and split 2 (2 game Marlins and this 4 gamer)

  55. you know what was impressive about that Morneau HR? It was hit into a pretty decent wind. I saw a replay and notice the giant American flag was moving pretty good.

  56. Kevin Correia re-takes the Cy Young lead from Pedro Hernandez! We're still on track for 152-10!

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