96 thoughts on “May 24, 2013: Lesser of Two Evils”

    1. I agree the Twins have gotten some bad luck, but I've observed that teams tend to have better luck with their starting pitchers go six or seven innings once in a while.

      1. Dick Bremer was talking last night about how if just one reliever can't get through the inning that they are out there for, it screws everything up. That's a little silly (guys can't pitch more than an inning?), but it sort of played out last night. Diamond was a little rough and he tap danced through 5 2/3 (not 6!) Fien came in and then couldn't get through the seventh. Then it was Duensing, who couldn't get it done, and now Burton is in the game with 1 out in the seventh. Everything is mucked up.

        The other explanation is that Detroit can hit.

        Diamond was better last night than some of the other efforts we've seen, but in the end he only got 17 outs, one more than an average Twins start. This bullpen, which has been pretty good, is going to get burned to a crisp unless starters get better.

          1. I was kind of assuming that Anderson's position was contingent on Gardy's position.

            1. I was thinking about that last night. Rick Anderson seems to get a lot of credit for being a really good pitching coach, and I don't see the evidence that he is. I'm not arguing that he's not a good coach, because that's something that's really hard to evaluate as an outsider. I just don't see the evidence that he is.

              1. I think the article that Rows linked to has a decent handle on it. There are definitely pitchers that work better under the Radke plan, but Anderson tries to apply it to everyone.

                Well, all the starters, anyway - I still can't shake that Perkins went from being a 4.x K/9 guy to a 10+. Sure, a very large part of that can be attributed to things like the starter/reliever transition and Perkins taking a more active role in stats and whatnot, but I believe that the split is too insane for that to be the only issue. Whatever they're telling the starters, they're not certainly not telling it to the relievers.

                1. I assume that pitchers pitch much like runners run: if you are running a 200m instead of a 10K, you run accordingly; Perk no longer has to save it for that last 2K, so to speak

                  1. Right, I get that idea, and the strikeouts were bound to go up, and go up by quite a bit. But the Twins' relievers K numbers aren't out of whack with the rest of baseball - the starters are...horribly so.

                    1. Tango espouses his "Rule of 17": "BABIP is 17 points higher as a starter, K/PA goes up by 17% as a reliever, and HR per contacted ball is 17% higher as a starter". Now, Perkins K/PA went from 11.0% to 25.4% when we would estimate it would be 12.8%. However, in the minor leagues primarily as a starter (101 started out of 106 games), his K/PA was 22.3%. Add 17% to that and we get 26.1%. I guess you could say he "lost" the ability to get strikeouts in transitioning to the big league level as a starter, but maintained it when switching to relief.

          2. Bizarre article. Beside the cherry-picked stats, it ends with this:

            Anderson’s downfall as a pitcher was partially attributable to his lack of ability to generate strikeouts (5.2 K/9 in 1,050.2 innings in the minors, 3.91 K/9 in 96.2 IP in the majors), so it’s understandable that he harbors some resentment toward strikeouts in general. They eluded him all those years; perhaps this is his way of getting back at the baseball world by doing everything he can to eliminate strikeouts from the game. [emphasis mine]

            What? First, his last year in MLB was 1988, when the strikeout rate was 5.6 K/9 in MLB. His minor league rate doesn't seem so bad in that case. Second, resentment? Okay, Strandberg is probably sarcastic about that part but it detracts from the article. Third, what makes Rivera such a successful pitcher, other than kindly umps? Ability to pitch to the edge of the strikezone. In order to make pitching at the edge a negative, Strandberg needs to illustrate the negative effects rather than linking to an article about the success of the Rays in pitching to the edge of the strikezone.

        2. Diamond was at about 70 pitches with two outs in the fifth with two strikes to the No. 9 hitter. The guy hit a little roller to the right side that found a hole and all Hell broke loose. He wasn't getting hit hard, they just all of a sudden found every hole and got every break possible. If he ends the fifth at 75 pitches, he's on pace to get through seven innings on 105 pitches. And it's not like he was putting all that many balls in play. He had five strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. That's more than Twins starters average in nine innings.

  2. After this nine game skid, the Twins are now on pace to finish 66-96. Or 136-26.

    1. I took the under on 70 wins this year. I was starting to feel like I had underestimated the local squad, but not any more.

    2. I was starting to almost believe that my "Quest for 73-89" was far too pessimistic a couple of weeks ago. Back on track, I guess...

    3. I'm enjoying the comments on the Twins BoF page imploring the team to sign Mayday Malone.

    4. Pythag pace is for 74-88. Twins are still tied with Toronto for having played the toughest schedule in the AL. Still haven't played Houston or Seattle.

    1. Oh yeah, all GBV fans knows Carney's big into GBV and have noted his name dropping. His last quote about the band pretty much nails it.

  5. Gleeman makes the point that Hicks started 2-48 and now has a higher OPS than Dozier. Hicks is not exactly setting the world on fire since then (but, he's better), but Dozier is craptastic. I don't think Dozier can play at all. When Plouffe gets back, Carroll needs to play and Dozier needs to sit or go to Rochester.

      2. Escobar is in a 3-for-37 slump. He has a career .660 OPS in the minors. Dozier has a career .779 in the minors. It could be neither can hit in the majors, but Dozier might turn out to be decent. Escobar will never be more than a good field/not hit utility guy.

        1. Escobar is in a 3-for-37 slump. He has a career .660 OPS in the minors.

          I'm not sure that 3-for-37 really qualifies as a slump when your career minor league slash line is 267/312/348. More like his 378/395/541 line over his first 38 PA was a mirage of random luck.

        2. I'd also caveat Dozier's numbers. He had a really good 2011 (320/399/491 split betw Ft. Myers and New Britain). Take that year out of the mix, and the rest of his minor league career looks like 286/350/365. That's really not much better than Escobar or Florimon (ok, the OBP is clearly better, but still not "good"). So the question is whether you believe that his 2011 numbers are a "truer" measure of his quality, or the balance of his minor league career is (or the weighted average -- i.e., his overall minor league slash line).

          1. Even if you just look at his 2010, he hit .275/.350/.349 that year with 57 SO and 60 BB.

            I guess what I find most surprising is that I tend to expect hitters with decent SO/BB rates to have a somewhat easier time moving up the ladder. (Depending somewhat on what type of hitter they are.) Looking at Escobar, Florimon, and Dozier in the minors:

            SO%/BB% -- Dude
            11.4%/9.5% -- Dozier
            24.0%/8.8% -- Florimon
            18.5%/5.8% -- Escobar

            Given that none of them really projects to have much power (maybe Florimon, since he's a bit taller?), I would tend to think that Dozier would be the best hitter in the group, but he's striking out a ton in the majors, so maybe (to use some scout-type speak) he has a hole in his swing (or whatever) that major league pitchers can exploit but pitchers in the lower minors can't. Surely there's no harm in sending Dozier to AAA for at least the balance of the season to see how well he makes contact in an extended AAA run.

    2. From April 15 on, Hicks is batting .211/.303/.389. Buxton is almost destined to be the star centerfielder, but Hicks won't be moved for lack of offense at least.

      1. That's not terrific, but the isoP of .178 is nice. He would have been well-served to have spent a month or two in AAA, but that ship has sailed.

        1. Agreed. The other thing is that those numbers have been increasing. I wonder if the Twins wanted Hicks to be coached by Bruno all season.

        2. That's a really solid walk rate, too. Even if he was just hitting .260 (5 more singles over that time period), he'd be up to a .260/.349/.438 line. In the minors he hit .271/.379/.421, so I think that's a pretty reasonable long-term outlook. I'm not expecting it this year, but in a year or two I think he could be a pretty good hitter.

          For comparison:
          .270/.334/.417 -- Hunter, minors
          .277/.335/.465 -- Hunter, majors

          1. .211/.303/.389 -- Hicks, April 15 to present, 23 years and 5 months on April 1, 2013.
            .255/.309/.380 -- Hunter, first full season (1999), 23 years and 8 months on April 1, 1999.

            Hicks is a bit younger and has almost matched Hunter's season production, since the semi-arbitrary date. I think this season's final numbers will be pretty close, if not superior to, Hunter's first season.

      2. Span: .266/.332/.329
        Revere: .257/.299/.294

        Hicks overall isn't good, but neither of those guys is setting the world on fire, either.

    3. I don’t think Dozier can play at all.

      Hey, what has two thumbs and last summer called Dozier "Nishioka with a little power"? This guy!

      2. I have to say that Dozier's numbers still seem like less than he ought to be capable of. Not that he's the next coming of Chuck Knoblauch, but even starting the minors at a bit of an advanced age, he didn't stagnate in his progression and he hit .298/.370/.409 overall. His 48 games at AAA are concerning--mainly the strikeout rate there--but it's still just 48 games and I don't see a good reason in his numbers why he should be practically a .300/.400/.500 hitter at AA and a .232/.286/.337 hitter in AAA. Most guys who drop off the face of the planet like that show some weakness in either their BB% or SO%.

        That said, I don't think I've ever seen him play and I don't feel strongly about him, but looking at his numbers, it seems like he should be hitting closer to Carroll than Butera. I guess I would hold out some hope for him if he had some time at AAA.

        1. To me, there's not too many degrees of "can't play at all". I still say their numbers are pretty dang close other than Dozier has hit a few big-league homers:

          .215/.267/.236, 17.3% SO, 6.3% BB
          vs.
          .224/.263/.316, 18.9% SO, 5.0% BB

          I grant that at this point Dozier seems like he can play major-league defense at second (unlike last year when he showed he probably can't play shortstop), although he can also still make some bad-looking plays.

  6. FUN FACT: the Twins relief corps has 35 more strikeouts that the starters. (143 to 108)

    2. That would be an even more fun fact if the starters actually had significantly more innings pitched.

  7. My daughter informed her mother this morning that she's the meanest mother in the world and that she can walk to school and she's got a million dollars and can buy her friend a birthday present for tomorrow's party and that she wants to go to after school day care.

    My guess is that when my wife picks her up at 2:30, she'll be very excited to see her.

    1. Daughters can be brutal on their mothers. But all that drama forges a bond that is stronger than steel.

      1. My daughter has been acting out a little bit recently at school and got in MAJOR TROUBLE (she was fighting with a classmate) this week. That night, she admitted no guilt and decided that she didn't want this teacher anymore, whom she loved until then. Later that night, though, she made a card for this loved/hated/now loved again teacher that she was going to have all the kids sign. She's working through some emotions right now regarding accepting responsibility for her actions. She doesn't want to do it, she wants to blame others. But when she starts blaming those that she's closest to, she's conflicted because she just heaped a bunch of blame on the people she loves most.

        Head explosion.

        Dad and Miss SBG are going to have some projects to work on this weekend. And I think I'll slip in some talk about this stuff while we're cleaning up the yard.

          1. Miss SBG, your eight-year-old, and my sixteen-year-old have a ton in common, it seems.

            1. My eight-year-old is not like that at all. When Sour Cream is mean to Skim and I punish Sour Cream, Skim begs me not to be mean to SC "Just because she was mean to me." She is...too good.

              Sour Cream, on the other hand, is probably going to go through more of a stretch like the kids in this thread. Skim will probably pass through it too, but if so, I'm not sure it's going to be all that long-lasting. She's been a very, very good kid all her life.

        2. Best of luck to you. I'd be interested in hearing how it goes (realizing full well that the effect of such chats might not be seen for a long time), as I'm still a little ways away, but often worry about this sort of thing.

          1. This is a long term project requiring much patience and coaching. The primary mode of attack on things like this is to appeal to her longing to be a big girl. One of the things I always try to do is look back in time and show her how far she's come. That makes it much easier to introduce the next topic of growth.

  8. New baseball book alert! Class A: Baseball in the Middle of Everywhere by Lucas Mann. The book focuses on the LumberKings, a Class A affiliate of the Seattle Mariners based in Clinton, Iowa. Author interview here.

  10. Is the mobile site still off? My Droid thinks it is on first coming to the site, and the mobile site is munged (everything piled up on too of itself).

    1. It's deactivated. There are remnants still around though and you're likely hitting that.

      Edit: You aren't hitting m.wgom.org, right? I am guessing not.

      1. yes, that was it. seems that I still have that site in my list of recent sites in the browser thingy. Mayhap I should install a different browser. Recommendations for Droid browsing? (I have an HTC some-stupid-name II, although I think I'm probably gonna "upgrade" this summer to an HTC some-stupid-name 4G).

        1. I use Firefox and Chrome. I recall that Firefox runs on more devices, if that matters.

          1. Both can sync with their desktop brethen, so whatever you use there might be useful to use the mobile equivalent if you desire syncing.

        1. I can't believe the Nation is gonna let UW get away with this outrage. "JIF"???

          GGGIF!!!

          2. I've always pronounced it with a hard initial "g" sound. (Not that I have occasion to say the term out loud very often.) My dictionary of choice, however, refuses to pick sides on this question.

          3. In the great "GIF"/"JIF" debate, I am firmly in the "who gives a sh!t" camp, especially when we all communicate here by writing.

            1. First they came for my obscure image extension pronunciations, and I said nothing, because I was not an obscure image extension pronunciation...

          4. I use the hard g because I consider "gif" to be a short way of saying "The Internet's Gift to the World".

            1. I never knew it was a controversy until Runner daughter called me out on it, but I've always pronounced it like the peanut butter (and will continue to). But I also was drug kicking and screaming to pronounce SQL as "sequel"

              1. I knew the creator intended jif but pronounced it gif for years. Still don't care. And I'm sticking with sequel.

              2. How else would one pronounce SQL?
                "Squi'el"?
                (Like Squirrel, but with a cockney accent)

                  2. I guess I can see it.
                    SQL

                    I assume you gents pronounce them
                    "Gee - Eye - Eff" (GIF) and
                    "Aitch - Tee - Em - Ell" (HTML)

                    2. yes to the latter. As to the former, we've already established where I stand on the Great Issue Of Our Day.

        1. That's the amazing part. All out of the strike zone and all over. Massive plate coverage, and beyond.

          1. Pitchers might be inclined to introduce this as evidence the current strike zone is too small.

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