DAY GAME ALERT!
Remember when it snowed in the middle of April and the final game of the Twins series against the Mets got postponed and it seemed like winter was never going to end and a few days later it snowed again and I got appendicitis and shoveled snow anyway and my appendix ruptured and it hurt like bloody hell and I had to have emergency surgery? Well, it happened whether you remember it or not, and I've got the scars to prove it. Today the Twins and Mets are going to play that postponed game and the Mets have a chance to sweep a series that they won more than four months ago by taking the first two games at Target Field. The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the mound. If he sucks again, I'm demanding an immediate MRI. The Mets counter with Dillon Gee, who doesn't suck but doesn't exactly sparkle like unicorn farts, either.
Play ball!
I have a conference call in an hour, so I want all the excitement in this one to be frontloaded.
Prediction: Gibby breaks down in the 3rd with arm trouble.
The Mets (and Gibson) are trying to accommodate you.
Which is discovered about a month from now.
Looks like...no Home feed on this game? I might be alone today.
I've got the radio on now. We'll see how long that sticks.
How'd today go?
Boo, I'm blacked out.
Mets: "Was that ruled a hit? Come on. That's the worst home scoring I've ever seen!"
Sadly, we've seen much worse, though he's spot on that Trader Clete doesn't deserve a hit here.
geez, Dazzle disappointed with Mauer's RBI total, then compares his numbers to other catchers. What does that have to do with it??
No TV, and the Pohlads own the crappiest radio station in the Twins Cities. I'd have better luck tuning in a NYC station than K-TWIN. Boo.
You don't need to be hearing this Mets bat-around.
Really? I've been annoyed by how clear it sounds vs the old 1500 AM signal.
Harder to ignore the lame "Gingers" commercial. (among others)
I can get it upstairs, but no go in the basement (and it's a split level, so only half the basement is below grade). I get every other FM station just fine.
Get Gibson out of there.
Third inning, fourth inning...close enough.
Time to shut Gibson down? He's been getting whacked the last month or so.
They were going to shut him down after about 150 innings. He came into this game with about 140 IP. So he should be good for 3 or 4 more starts.
I'm getting your math.
Before the game, Dazzle was guesstimating maybe one more start after today.
Bring back DeVries! I honestly don't even care if he's a gascan at this point.
MOAR LIVEJOURNAL!
Yeah, I've been less than impressed. He has a nice GB% of 49.4% (would be about 20th if he had enough innings), but that's it.
Frankie V had a pretty rough first ten starts too.
For the season in 1982 (22 starts): 5.21 ERA (82 ERA+), 126 innings,84:38 K:BB, 22 HR, opponents hit 302/351/491, .327 BABIP.
But he was 22. To be fair to Gibson, needing surgery eliminated the possibility of him coming up late in his age 23 season.
Viola was only 22, though. Gibson is 25. TJ, yes, that's a factor, but he's three years older and much worse.
Continuing off of SBG: Viola had a 4.56 FIP in 1982, only 6% worse than league average for pitchers. He was an average starting pitcher at 22. Gibson's FIP is 5.28, 32% worse than league average.
This season is essentially lost for him. I'd like to see him come back next year with a spot fairly guaranteed on the starting rotation to see what he can do if given a clean slate start to the year.
That said, I'm not particularly fond of where this appears to be headed.
But how can this be? We've been promised the once and future
kingacelegitimate starter! He's been penciled into every iteration of the long-term rotation 'reload' since he started playing long toss last summer!TWINS BASEBALL!!
Joe!
I see Mauer still padding his stats but not winning.
If the Twins lose this game, they will have the same record as they did at this point in 2011. 75% of their games remaining are against teams with winning records.
If? Don't you mean when.
Right.
Well...you get the idea.
vaguely apropos, Mauer is on track to lead the club in rWAR again this year. It would be his fifth career season of 5.0+ rWAR.
In comparison, Johnny Bench had eight such seasons, the last of which was his age-31 season. Pudge had 5, the last of which was his age-29 season. The Kid had 8, last of which was age-31. Yogi, 4 (age-31). Coinkadinkally, Mauer is in his age-30 season. Ruh roh.
Piazza had six five-win seasons, the last of which was age 31. I'm okay with Mauer merely being a top 5 or 6 catcher instead of best ever.
Did any of THOSE guys make $23m per year?
Gibson sent to AAA.
That way when he's shut down, it won't count against his service time!
sean - will you edit that first table for me? Delete the playoffs column and the extra commas between the team name in row 7 and the league name in row 10. I ran out of time to edit and hate having my garbage matching the team's performance...embarrassing.
I fixed two elements
Thanks.
Diamond back up? DeVries? Did they clone Andrew Albers?
Terry is going into deep cover to literally steal Clayton Kershaw from the Dodgers. MAKE IT HAPPEN TERRY.
I approve of this plan.
I thought that the Twins should have given Gibson a shot. Now that they have, am I completely off base to think that his ceiling is a moderately well-to-do man's Nick Blackburn? 'Cause that's what I'm thinking.
I think that's a little harsh, but uh I've certainly tempered my expectations.
I think that's selling him short.
Their AAA numbers:
I'm picturing Gibson more as Baker 2.0, Finally Keeping it Down.
Wow. Tim Tim TiMMEY spent a lot of time at AAA.
Blackburn maybe not the best comparison, but their K/BB rate is pretty close.
K/BB overvalues low walk pitchers. A better method is to use K-BB like FIP. Using that instead, Gibson has a K-BB of 5.5 compared to Blackburn's 2.8. League average K-BB this year is 4.6, so it's easy to see why Blackburn sucked despite having an above average K/BB.
Is anyone else watching the Rock Cats game on FSN? Some super slow dude just got Ullger'd. So instead of getting to watch Sano hit with the bases loaded and two outs, they let them out of the inning. The Twins Way really does extend to the minors!
Watching the game today, I wouldn't have said that Gibson was unlucky. However, the Mets were 10-for-16 with nine singles and a double on balls in play. If every ball in play was a line drive you would expect him to give up 11 hits.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 8/19/2013.
Looking at this table, Gibson has thrown the fewest strikes, but when batters do swing, they make contact less against him than any others. Albers' contact rate in just three starts is concerning.
It's disconcerting, too!
Albers' CG shut out was fun, but man did he ever give up a lot of loud outs in that game. I think Dick was comparing him to Jim Kaat during that game. I think our expectations have been lowered in Twins Territory.
Okay, Twins, I get it. Minnesota Nice requires you to take it easy on the rest of the league and give the other teams a chance for a while. Now, though, it's time to assert yourselves and take control. We'll just have to settle for 93-69!