Cup of Coffee

April 18, 2014: Minnesota Sports

99 Comments

The Twins won their first series with the Jays in sixteen tries. The Wild also played a playoff game into overtime that hadn't finished at the time I set up this post. I hope it ended well.

...never mind. I just watched it end.

99 thoughts on “April 18, 2014: Minnesota Sports”

  1. Brian Dozier has reached base 26 times (10th in the AL. Mauer and Plouffe are 6th with 28). He has scored a league leading 18 runs.

    Chris Colabello has driven in an AL leading 19 runs. 11 of those are Dozier (6) and Mauer (5)

      1. Both Colabello and Mauer only have one dinger, so they are equally bad players (Should have 6 jacks by now)

    1. This goes back to research I conducted two years ago, comparing the NBA’s season structure to those of other sports. Using an unbelievably useful methodology from arch-sabermetrician Tom Tango, I calculated the number of games necessary in each sport to regress a team’s record halfway to the mean — meaning, we’d know half of its observed outcomes were due to its own talent (while the other half results from randomness). For pro basketball and football, the numbers are similar: In the NBA, it takes about 12 games; in the NFL, 11 games. But in baseball, it takes a whopping 67 games for half of the variance in observed winning percentages to come from the distribution of talent and half from randomness.

      Thing one: no, this approach is not about knowing "half of its observed outcomes were due to its own talent". It's about the sample sizes you need to "explain" half the variance in final records. The tangotiger comment he references is about inference from Bernoulli trials. For me, it is a pretty big leap to inferring talent levels. Particularly if schedules are not balanced (so that every team would play essentially the same set of opponents the same numbers of times).

      Thing two; at last check, 11 games in the NFL is more than 2/3 of the season. 67 games in baseball is less than half the season. So, uh, woo?
      I bet that if he did the same analysis with soccer and hockey, he'd get similar results to baseball, Because Low Scoring Game (in which every score is worth the same value).

      Basketball games have ~100 FG scored across the two teams in ~200 possessions. That's a lot of scoring opportunities in a game, with which one can differentiate between the two teams on that given night. Good teams rarely lose to bad ones.

      1. Are professional basketball games played strictly to determine which teams are best? Some might argue that games are played to entertain the paying customers. If customers are willing to pay for 82 games, well then, the season might not be too long. A more compelling argument about the length of the season being too long is whether it takes too much of a toll on players and whether the league is dependent on a small number of players for its success. Basketball, more than other sports, is reliant or has chosen to be reliant on a relatively small number of its players for a majority of its success. Basketball's season is a grind, but elite players can still play up to fifteen seasons or more at a very high level. (Kobe is in his 18th season -- yeah, he's maybe done.)

        So, no, I don't think the season is too long.

        2. I largely agree. I think it's possible that the NBA has a good but not quite optimal schedule. I think if they changed the lottery (my suggestion just being to rank the non-playoff teams based on how long it has been since they made the playoffs), the overall play at the end of the season would probably improve and there would be fewer complaints about the end of the season--even if complaints about tanking are sometimes overblown (it's not always a Mark Madsen 3-point attempt parade.)

          Even though players do manage to hang on the way it is now, I wonder if a slight decrease in games (like, maybe 10% or something) would eliminate most or all of the regular season back-to-back games. This might leave players a little more fresh for the post-season. If the players are more fresh for the post-season, you might be able to eliminate a playoff rest day here or there to keep the momentum of the series going (figuring that a back-to-back with no travel between is easier than one with a flight between games), which might help keep NBA casuals at high interest levels during the playoffs. I know personally with the weather getting nicer outside, it's easier for me to lose track of a playoff series that seems to stretch over most of two weeks.

      2. I would suspect soccer to be closer to the NFL and NBA, actually. Even though it is low scoring, teams are largely sending out the same squad week in and week out, whereas in baseball, each team is in a way an average of five different teams with different starting pitchers. I could be convinced that the Mariners this year with Felix Hernandez starting are a somewhat above-.500 team, whereas with Chris Young on the mound, they are definitely a below-.500 team. I think that's a huge part of what keeps baseball teams clumped closer to .500. Another way of saying that is I think the standings would look a lot different if teams took four days off between games and always used their best starter on full rest. (They would also always start their best catcher, and there would be no throwing the scrubs out for a day game after a night game.)

        I'm not convinced how much the low-scoring nature of the game matters--I don't actually think the NFL's scoring rate is that different than MLB's scoring rate. Last year, NFL teams averaged 2.4 TD/game and 1.7 FG/game. So about 4 scores a game. In 2013, MLB teams averaged 4.17 runs/game, which is probably somewhere around 2.5 run-scoring plays per game (admittedly a guess, though I think a reasonable one, I couldn't readily find RBI per run-scoring hit stats.) But that also notes, that in baseball, even though a run is a run, run-scoring plays are not made equally, so I think it's closer to football than soccer and hockey in that way. So, 2.5 per game to 4.0 per game--more scores in the NFL, but in my book, still low scoring, especially when you are comparing to basketball with dozens of scores per game.

        1. Great point about baseball having multiple teams they throw out. It makes really terrible teams more amazing. The 2003 Tigers needed over 20 people to be terrible, not just the five or so that an NBA team would need to be awful to get that kind of record.

          1. Looking it up: the Tigers as a team were at 4.2 WAR. My understanding is that a replacement level team is about 50 or so wins. The Tigers' pythag win total was 49, so that's pretty close to what you would expect. They ended up 6 wins below that so they were "unlucky" (or whatever).

            It is pretty amazing that they basically fielded a replacement level team. Delmon's older brother was 2.6 of that 4.2 WAR. Everyone else was hovering around replacement level (or below). Amazing.

            1. Somebody at Hardball Times awhile back determined that if you took the best year of every player on that Tigers team they would have squeaked into the playoffs. In other words, while they did have some truly replacement level players, they had a bunch of decent players having some of their worst years

          2. agreed. I hadn't thought all the way through the logic. Good call, ubes.

            Thinking of a MLB team as comprised of ~5 distinct subteams (since starting pitchers have such a large impact on games) kind of implies that the spell length of 67 games to "converge" really is ~5 spell lengths of ~13 games. Boom.

  3. ubelmann mused last night about whether a pitcher has thrown a complete game with fewer than 32 ball pitches. When I read that this morning, my mind immediately went to one man: Greg Maddux.

    I randomly chose to look at his 1998 game log:
    7/31: 116 pitches, 84 strikes, 32 balls
    6/27: 102 pitches, 76 strikes, 26 balls
    4/15: 91 pitches, 67 strikes, 24 balls

    How about 1997:
    5/21: 111 pitches, 83 strikes, 28 balls
    6/27: 90 pitches, 71 strikes, 19 balls(!!!!!)
    7/2: 84 pitches, 61 strikes, 23 balls
    7/22: 76 pitches, 63 strikes, 13 balls(!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

    How about 1996:
    4/22: 108 pitches, 79 strikes, 29 balls
    9/18: 94 pitches, 66 strikes, 28 balls

    I looked at a few more seasons and he did it several more times besides what is shown here.

      1. Found one in 2001 with 20 balls, but only 77 pitches. The start before had 22 balls in a complete game win. Found others that season with no more than 32 balls, so I wouldn't be surprised if he did it a lot.

      2. The other Twin that immediately pops to mind is Carlos Silva, who had three such complete games, including a 74 pitch complete game with only 20 ball pitches.

      1. I don't know if you used the complete game criteria. The games I picked were all complete games.

        1. I did not, but the games are biased that way. The first is a complete game, in the second Lee pitched nine of the ten innings, and the third he pitched 8.1 innings.

          Incredibly, Lee gave up six runs in the first game using only 95 pitches. No walks of course.

        1. For the 18 Nolan Ryan complete games with pitch counts, his average was 42.2 balls. The low was 33 (above), the high was 56 (the complete game right before the one above).

  4. We’re encouraged that our blog post last Monday exploring the extent to which Americans can put Ukraine on a map has received so much attention. As academics, we’re excited when anyone outside of our immediate family reads something we’ve written, so we’re thrilled by all of the comments, e-mails, blog posts, and tweets (we love you, Stephen Colbert!).

    Finding Ukraine on a map, revisited at The Monkey Cage on WaPo.

    1. What amazes me are the places people placed it which are bodies of water. You'd think the Mediterranean was pretty well established in most people's heads.

      1. I can understand how you (not you personally) might want the US to intervene if you think Ukraine is located in Missouri.

        2. except the finding is that those people are MORE likely to favor military intervention!!!!

          as for the place-in-bodies-of-water people, some of it has to be what we call non-interested respondents answering randomly. There should be a way to identify and filter the people deliberately answering with b.s., so I'd have not expected those answers to be offered at all. Hence, something funky about those results, IMO (I haven't read the link about the survey methods details).

        1. I'm thinking: give athletes a bagel snack and a cream cheese snack. Tell them to take a bite of the bagel and then eat a spoonful of cream cheese.

          1. It's a slippery slope, Vic.

            Bagel chips, cream cheese, lox, onion, and capers: Snack or Meal?

  6. I am getting sick of hearing about Mauer's contract holding the Twins back. I decided to start lookinh at 2011 free agent signings to see what the Twins could have done. Even with the benefit of hindsite, his contract doesn't look that bad to me.

      2. For the last inning, WGN announcers have been explaining to the audience how Votto is a great player because getting on base is a valuable.

      3. Yeah, and a lot of the same people complained about what Garnett couldn't do.

        I'll never forget when the greatest player who ever laced them up for a Minnesota club finally left town. Top Jimmy wrote about how he was more excited to watch the flotsam and jetsam that the Wolves got in that trade than he was to watch KG, who, incidentally, promptly won an NBA title. The Wolves have still not reached .500, much less made the playoffs.

    3. The problem with Mauer is that he bunted that one time in a big spot almost four years ago.

        1. The best part was that he said that if Mauer had a hot streak like he did after that bunt, all would be forgiven! (Except of course, that that bunt wasn't forgiven.)

      2. Don't forget that he's 6'4" and 230 lbs. He looks like he should hit a lot of dingers. Obviously he's selfishly watching pitches instead of taking giant hacks to knock them out of the park. #DriveTheBallSally as someone tweeted at Gleeman yesterday.

        1. What are the odds that last night's game will end the complaints about his walks? I'm guessing extremely low, because people are dumb, but a boy can dream.

  8. I was looking at former Twins pitcher Allan Anderson's b-r page and this transaction is interesting:

    Before 1993 Season: Sent from the New York Yankees to ??? in an unknown transaction.

    Did someone lose the paperwork?

    1. weird. On Sunday, Feb. 28, 1993, this appeared in newspaper transactions (I found this in the Oxnard Press Courier):

      TEXAS RANGERS-Signed Allan Anderson, pitcher, to a coniract with Oklahoma City of the American Association.

      That is the ONLY transaction for Anderson that shows up in any newspaper in our database for the period between the end of the 1992 season and the start of 1993 season.

      1. Anderson was injured for almost all of 1992. I had assumed that he simply became a free agent after that season and signed a minor league contract with Texas for 1993. I suppose its possible the Yankees got something for him, though.

  10. Hey I need QUICK community feedback.

    I need to purchase a car charger for my Droid today/tonight, before we leave on a week-long SoCal college tour with The Girl. Recommendations? Warnings? (I have a Galaxy S3)

    1. No USB port in the car? Mine includes one, although I'm not sure how much power it provides.

      1. I have an iPhone, so I'm not sure what the Galaxy charger is like, but I just have a generic two-port USB cigarette adapter and that has worked well for all my USB charging needs.

        1. I have one of those as well. I can charge my iPod, phone, or run my radio transmitter off it no problem.

        2. I also have one of these for our Droid phones that seems to work without any complaints (I think we bought it in a gas station somewhere while on the road, so it's no particular brand).

      2. My car (2003 Camry) has a (12-volt?) jack, similar to a cigarette lighter plug. The wife's beemer has I dunno. Have to confirm that, I guess.

      3. I recently installed a new (used) head unit in my car with a USB port that for some reason doesn't charge my phone very well (and is also not compatible with androids. God damned iPhones.) It's not the worst thing ever, but bugs me a little.

    2. I didn't have a galaxy S3 but I did have a droid phone at one time. I'm of the mindset that any old compatible car charger will do.

    3. Thanks, all. Looks like I will swing by Best Buy on the way home to look over the (relatively cheap) options.

  11. How did I not know about this great Bryan Danielson clip when he was accidentally introduced as the Ultimate Dragon:

    httpv://youtu.be/1dOKHS_6QFU

    1. Awesome.

      As happy as I am that he has had success in the E, those small gyms still seem more like his home to me.

  12. Don't you ever change, Skip Bayless:

    Now, what concerns me more is what my "First Take" debate partner Stephen A. Smith often warns me about: Picking a team with such public conviction that I set off a Durant or Harden, both of whom have been known to watch our show. But I do believe in these fresh, healthy Spurs and their mission.

    Yep, Harden or Durant might not be properly motivated unless Skip Bayless picks the Spurs. But, they watch his show and will probably be super pumped now.

  13. Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino
    Jason Bartlett has informed #mntwins he plans to retire.

    Its too bad his career ended with him playing a position he had no business playing and was embarrassed.

    1. True. On the plus side, though, he did, against all odds, make it back to the major leagues, if only for a little while.

      1. This is also the way I feel about it. He clawed back (sort of undeservedly, but who cares) to play a couple more games and if he did, in fact, play poorly, he didn't exactly negatively impact anybody's playoff chances.

          1. Agree. There is no other team and no other manager where Jason Bartlett makes a 40 man roster and takes a spot on a MLB bench.

            2. Oh, please. Not even close to the truth. The Brewers gave Yuniesky Betancourt 400+ PAs last year and he hadn't had a non-negative WAR since 2007. The Twins are far from unique in desiring scrappy veteran players. Chone Figgins wasn't in the majors last year after hitting sub-.200 the previous two years with the Mariners, but he's with the Dodgers this year.

    3. And:

      Yeah, take a few more days to think about a decision to end the only career he's ever known. Clearly it was a spur of the moment decision and not something he had already thought a lot about.

      1. If the Twins want him in the organization, they should offer him a coaching position or a front office job

  14. Matt Guerrier pitched a couple of innings for New Britain tonight. The Portland announcer repeatedly referred to him as "Guerrero".

    1. yeah, that was brutal
      Made up for it with a RBI double (then steal of third!) later in he game

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