Speaking of, and interest in the Hockey and/or Basketbalf leagues? If not, I won't bother to renew them.
I'm in for Hockey but won't be heartbroken if there's not enough interest for a full league.
I'm excited to go directly from baseball to hockey season...make it happen Twins.
Whoa, yeah, I know its close to winter and all, but I had no idea things even started.
Also, I've decided to remove myself from all fantasy sports leagues with the exception of the WGOM baseball league.
My mother told me the other day that fantasy football is illegal in ND and punishable by up to five years in prison (so it's a felony). I informed my mother that I didn't play fantasy football, which apparently was a surprise and relief to her.
So much so that she was reading something that Dr. Ben Carson wrote about how the Confederate Flag was no big deal, etc., thinking that I would approve of that.
My mom has figured out that I have grown to hate football, largely through profuse apologizing for having played in junior high despite her concerns.
But yeah, for some reason she was quite surprised to learn that I lean left when we were camping earlier this summer. I had thought I made my distaste our governor clear during all the hullabaloo.
This isn't quite on point, but I was at a wedding last weekend where my dad and several of his brothers were going on about politics. I walked away from the conversation shaking my head and saying "those guys sure argue a lot considering they're all saying the same thing."
I've mentioned that when I agree with my father-in-law (which is frequently enough) but he feels strongly about the issue, he'll often argue me around to where I'm disagreeing with him.
I went to watch my 12 year old nephew play football last night. He was by far the best player on the field, rushing for 160 yards on eight carries. His team lost because they let everyone play, my nephew is the QB and he only carries the ball on third or fourth down. He also threw a beautiful touchdown pass.
So, on the one hand, it was pretty fun to see how good he was, but on the other, I'm not too happy about a 12 year old playing football. But, he's not my kid and my brother was an all-region player in high school (he suffered concussions and stayed in a game despite having blacked out, ugh), so he's gonna play. Sigh. Damn, he looked good, though.
Kind of want to go to the Lynx game this weekend. Two of the girls have soccer in the metro until about 1:15. Wife has no interest. Hmm…
“I don’t want to know what Putin takes to remain operational.”
Interesting read.
Had a doughnut for breakfast again today, and have an incredibly hot take: doughnuts are delicious.
I have made plans to take my kids to the bakery tomorrow morning.
They are delicious, I just can't do them. I wish I didn't feel so gross after eating one. I have a sweet tooth for sure, but something about the sugar in a do(ugh)nut that doesn't sit well.
I definitely can feel gross after eating them. Totally depends on the type though. The airier the better for me, generally.
This reminds me that I'm extremely sad I didn't make it to Donut Friend when I was in LA. The doughnuts sound killer and the proprietor was the drummer for Drive Like Jehu. Next year, hopefully.
I...do not have this problem.
Late in the day yesterday, I went to check one of my favorite children's book blogs and lo and behold, this was the featured image:
Uncanny
Serendipitous
Neat-o!
So...odds of making the playoffs. For the longest time, I have always felt like most baseball playoff odds models are overfitted--teams wind up too close to 100% and 0% and not close enough to 50%, so you wind up with teams that too frequently BEAT TEH ODZ!
From that standpoint, I think it's useful to look at a baseline of "we don't know anything, every game is determined by a coin flip." This also seems pretty fair with three games left in the season, comparing three teams that have nearly identical win totals. It's also pretty easy to brute force this for the Twins, Angels, and Astros--just 512 possibilities over the last three games. All ties are also settled by each team having an equal chance of advancing. That gives us:
I don't have too many quibbles with the Astros at 74.4%. Since all of these teams are above-.500, it's a little more likely than not that they'll win than lose, which would give the team in the lead more of an edge. The Angels that far above the Twins seems a bit surprising to me. They have the Angels' rest-of-season winning% at .518 and the Twins' at .438. This seems like an awfully big gap considering: 1) the Twins are at home, 2) the Angels are on the road, and 3) the Rangers and Royals have both been good teams. And looking at their expected win totals--very similar for the Twins and Angels--the main difference would seem to be between the Rangers and Angels, but even that's only about a 30-point gap.
Anyway, half the fun of brute forcing it is breaking down the odds based on how many wins the Twins get:
3 wins: 65%
2 wins: 23%
1 win: 2%
0 wins: 0%
Pretty sure those odds from FanGraphs are using BaseRuns. The Twins have done better than expected in scoring runs with their timing while BaseRuns assumes average sequencing.
Seems like we should be using season-to-date winning percentages for both teams in a matchup to forecast who will win, not coin-flip. And last year's winning pcts to forecast early in the year....
Rangers are locked into 3 seed.
Royals playing for HFA.
MLB has Postseason Probabilities via Baseball Prospectus.
That has
HOU 70.3% (looks like there's a 0.6% that TEX/HOU tie, as HOU has an 0.3% chance of winning the division).
MIN 15.5
LAA 14.3%
Yesterday, it was
HOU 66.9%
LAA 28.1%
MIN 6.7%
I forgot to mention that I agree with you about probabilities moving to 0% and 100% too quickly.
I know that earlier in the year, I noticed when one day made a significant-looking change that I thought improbable given the number of games remaining.
Who could forget the way the 2006 Twins odds changed? That was almost as much fun to watch as the games themselves.
2006, the most entertaining regular season I can ever remember.
I was looking to find my old chart. Couldn't find it, but I think this should be of some interest to a few of you around here. I had forgotten that my cup of coffee posts used to be quite detailed. Also, look at some of the comments on the left hand column!
That was probably the season I started to get really skeptical about these things. Although after my little exercise below with 2012-2014, it looks like there are a ton of teams that are real long shots by the trade deadline. (BP had 34 teams in the last 3 seasons at 1% or less by July 31st.) More longshots means a better chance that overall one of them comes through. Maybe I'm guilty of just ignoring the silent majority of crappy teams playing out the string and not making any noise.
I do think BP tends to do a better job than some of the outfits out there, though--some of the stuff on sportsclubstats, for instance, seems pretty bad.
Interesting link, I really like that they have the previous seasons' forecasts, which allows you to do some forecast validation.
I looked at 2012-2014 (all the seasons they had that are complete), and arbitrarily chose to look at probabilities from July 31st--the trade deadline, seems like a very non-cherry-picking date to choose. I pulled all the probabilities that were >75% or <25%.
100% -- 1 team -- 1 made playoffs
96%-99% -- 8 teams -- 98% average -- 8 made playoffs
76%-95% -- 12 teams -- 88% average -- 10 made playoffs
5-25% -- 10 teams -- 17% average -- 2 made playoffs
1-4% -- 14 teams -- 2% average -- 0 made playoffs
0% -- 26 teams -- 0% average -- 0 made playoffs
That's actually really spot on. I tried to avoid gerrymandering the groups, while at the same time picking groups that logically went together. So at least with this one BP forecast spot check, it looks pretty damn good, despite my reservations about how wildly the percentages can change months before the season ends.
Maybe all the noise is between 30% and 70%.
But yeah, that is pretty good.
Is tonight Ervin Santana's last outing of the season? Molitor: "I hope not."
Final preseason game? Already?
Speaking of, and interest in the Hockey and/or Basketbalf leagues? If not, I won't bother to renew them.
I'm in for Hockey but won't be heartbroken if there's not enough interest for a full league.
I'm excited to go directly from baseball to hockey season...make it happen Twins.
Whoa, yeah, I know its close to winter and all, but I had no idea things even started.
Also, I've decided to remove myself from all fantasy sports leagues with the exception of the WGOM baseball league.
My mother told me the other day that fantasy football is illegal in ND and punishable by up to five years in prison (so it's a felony). I informed my mother that I didn't play fantasy football, which apparently was a surprise and relief to her.
This woman really doesn't know me at all.
My mom has figured out that I have grown to hate football, largely through profuse apologizing for having played in junior high despite her concerns.
This isn't quite on point, but I was at a wedding last weekend where my dad and several of his brothers were going on about politics. I walked away from the conversation shaking my head and saying "those guys sure argue a lot considering they're all saying the same thing."
I've mentioned that when I agree with my father-in-law (which is frequently enough) but he feels strongly about the issue, he'll often argue me around to where I'm disagreeing with him.
I went to watch my 12 year old nephew play football last night. He was by far the best player on the field, rushing for 160 yards on eight carries. His team lost because they let everyone play, my nephew is the QB and he only carries the ball on third or fourth down. He also threw a beautiful touchdown pass.
So, on the one hand, it was pretty fun to see how good he was, but on the other, I'm not too happy about a 12 year old playing football. But, he's not my kid and my brother was an all-region player in high school (he suffered concussions and stayed in a game despite having blacked out, ugh), so he's gonna play. Sigh. Damn, he looked good, though.
Kind of want to go to the Lynx game this weekend. Two of the girls have soccer in the metro until about 1:15. Wife has no interest. Hmm…
If not, there's always rugby...*winkwink*
The whole thing was more about taking my girls to see professional women athletes at a top level. (And, of course, I'd enjoy it.)
Ahh, I read that as "I want to find something to do while my girls are busy" not "I wish my girls' game didn't conflict with the Lynx"
High Hitler: A look into the megalomaniac’s drug addiction.
Money quote:
Interesting read.
Had a doughnut for breakfast again today, and have an incredibly hot take: doughnuts are delicious.
I have made plans to take my kids to the bakery tomorrow morning.
They are delicious, I just can't do them. I wish I didn't feel so gross after eating one. I have a sweet tooth for sure, but something about the sugar in a do(ugh)nut that doesn't sit well.
I definitely can feel gross after eating them. Totally depends on the type though. The airier the better for me, generally.
This reminds me that I'm extremely sad I didn't make it to Donut Friend when I was in LA. The doughnuts sound killer and the proprietor was the drummer for Drive Like Jehu. Next year, hopefully.
I...do not have this problem.
Late in the day yesterday, I went to check one of my favorite children's book blogs and lo and behold, this was the featured image:
Uncanny
Serendipitous
Neat-o!
So...odds of making the playoffs. For the longest time, I have always felt like most baseball playoff odds models are overfitted--teams wind up too close to 100% and 0% and not close enough to 50%, so you wind up with teams that too frequently BEAT TEH ODZ!
From that standpoint, I think it's useful to look at a baseline of "we don't know anything, every game is determined by a coin flip." This also seems pretty fair with three games left in the season, comparing three teams that have nearly identical win totals. It's also pretty easy to brute force this for the Twins, Angels, and Astros--just 512 possibilities over the last three games. All ties are also settled by each team having an equal chance of advancing. That gives us:
65.0% -- Astros
17.5% -- Twins
17.5% -- Angels
Fangraphs, on the other hand, has:
74.4% -- Astros
16.1% -- Angels
9.5% -- Twins
I don't have too many quibbles with the Astros at 74.4%. Since all of these teams are above-.500, it's a little more likely than not that they'll win than lose, which would give the team in the lead more of an edge. The Angels that far above the Twins seems a bit surprising to me. They have the Angels' rest-of-season winning% at .518 and the Twins' at .438. This seems like an awfully big gap considering: 1) the Twins are at home, 2) the Angels are on the road, and 3) the Rangers and Royals have both been good teams. And looking at their expected win totals--very similar for the Twins and Angels--the main difference would seem to be between the Rangers and Angels, but even that's only about a 30-point gap.
Anyway, half the fun of brute forcing it is breaking down the odds based on how many wins the Twins get:
3 wins: 65%
2 wins: 23%
1 win: 2%
0 wins: 0%
Pretty sure those odds from FanGraphs are using BaseRuns. The Twins have done better than expected in scoring runs with their timing while BaseRuns assumes average sequencing.
Seems like we should be using season-to-date winning percentages for both teams in a matchup to forecast who will win, not coin-flip. And last year's winning pcts to forecast early in the year....
Rangers are locked into 3 seed.
Royals playing for HFA.
MLB has Postseason Probabilities via Baseball Prospectus.
That has
HOU 70.3% (looks like there's a 0.6% that TEX/HOU tie, as HOU has an 0.3% chance of winning the division).
MIN 15.5
LAA 14.3%
Yesterday, it was
HOU 66.9%
LAA 28.1%
MIN 6.7%
I forgot to mention that I agree with you about probabilities moving to 0% and 100% too quickly.
I know that earlier in the year, I noticed when one day made a significant-looking change that I thought improbable given the number of games remaining.
Who could forget the way the 2006 Twins odds changed? That was almost as much fun to watch as the games themselves.
2006, the most entertaining regular season I can ever remember.
I was looking to find my old chart. Couldn't find it, but I think this should be of some interest to a few of you around here. I had forgotten that my cup of coffee posts used to be quite detailed. Also, look at some of the comments on the left hand column!
That was probably the season I started to get really skeptical about these things. Although after my little exercise below with 2012-2014, it looks like there are a ton of teams that are real long shots by the trade deadline. (BP had 34 teams in the last 3 seasons at 1% or less by July 31st.) More longshots means a better chance that overall one of them comes through. Maybe I'm guilty of just ignoring the silent majority of crappy teams playing out the string and not making any noise.
I do think BP tends to do a better job than some of the outfits out there, though--some of the stuff on sportsclubstats, for instance, seems pretty bad.
Interesting link, I really like that they have the previous seasons' forecasts, which allows you to do some forecast validation.
I looked at 2012-2014 (all the seasons they had that are complete), and arbitrarily chose to look at probabilities from July 31st--the trade deadline, seems like a very non-cherry-picking date to choose. I pulled all the probabilities that were >75% or <25%.
100% -- 1 team -- 1 made playoffs
96%-99% -- 8 teams -- 98% average -- 8 made playoffs
76%-95% -- 12 teams -- 88% average -- 10 made playoffs
5-25% -- 10 teams -- 17% average -- 2 made playoffs
1-4% -- 14 teams -- 2% average -- 0 made playoffs
0% -- 26 teams -- 0% average -- 0 made playoffs
That's actually really spot on. I tried to avoid gerrymandering the groups, while at the same time picking groups that logically went together. So at least with this one BP forecast spot check, it looks pretty damn good, despite my reservations about how wildly the percentages can change months before the season ends.
Maybe all the noise is between 30% and 70%.
But yeah, that is pretty good.
Umm, does someone need to tell our manager he won't have one of his starting pitchers in the playoffs?
Short rest game 163/164
I should've refreshed, I guess.
He is eligible for game 163, though.
LeBron James continues to speak out.