...of a long stretch of work days. I'll probably squander it by cracking open my first beer at ten in the morning.
68 thoughts on “September 14, 2016: The End”
If the season ended today, Brian Dozier would have the 6th highest one season SLG% (.577) in Twins history.
Jim Thome .627 2010
Justin Morneau .618 2010
Harmon Killebrew .606 1961
Joe Mauer .587 2009
Harmon Killebrew .584 1969
Brian Dozier .577 2016
Oh, the gentleman masher how I miss thee.
JI JIM is Mrs. Hayes' all-time favorite player. She gets wistful every time I find a Thome highlight. Had she grown up in Minnesota, I think Hrbek would've found a place in her heart, too, but the Bunyanesque joy with which Jim mashed taters just speaks to her.
Still a prized posession
Despite those two franchise-historic SLG seasons in 2010, the club still finished only 4th in the AL in SLG, mostly because the club was 9th in HRs (1st in triples, 3rd in doubles). Three regulars (JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson and DSPAN) finished with SLGs under .400 (DSPAN was a woeful .348).
Also, those two players didn't play full seasons.
Why is there a pussy singles hitter on that list???!!!!
Volume. Sheer, sheer, volume.
so, you are saying that SLG is a counting stat?
Mauer's singles go to 11.
CC to Philos, mags, interested others: I'm up to about fifteen ideas for WGOM podcast episodes. About half are Twins or baseball-related, a third Minnesota topics, and the last three music-focused. Six of the fifteen are drafts.
If you want to shoot me an e-mail, I'd be happy to add it to my collection. I've been thinking more about recurring features than episode-long topics, so this could be a great lead.
I'm starting to get it into my head that, come October, we'd set out some sort of call for guests/ideas, and then maybe start recording in Novemberish.
Copy me in on those emails if you would please.
Would you do weekly episodes?
I was thinking weekly would be too much, and was hoping for twice monthly.
Twice monthly seems much more sustainable.
what about every other week?
...
24 seems much more doable than 26.
Happy to send them along. Not sure I have your contact info, though.
matthewbnovak
Just like that, at the google product.
I was thinking of working on a genealogy post while in surgery recovery week in mid-October, but might it be better as a podcast, maybe with submitted questions from Citizens ahead of time? I could go in many directions as it's a broad topic, but if we had specifics then it would tailor better to what folks are interested in.
ooo, those WGOM Radio headers i made might finally get put to use.
I'm certainly game for those. Also, if the topic veers to board games, I'm all over that.
So next year between April 3 and April 23 the Twins will play in the following cities: Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland.
They will have a 10 game home stand in April.
They play the Milwaukee Brewers Monday through Thursday in August.
Timberwolves training camp cannot arrive soon enough.
My god, what have we come to?
At least Cherrington's rejection is because he got a different job?
But not even a GM job, so he took a less important job than the Twins might possibly offer.
Cherington took a VP job, so lateral but above the GM. Cherington will be focusing on the player development side of things too. My read is that he didn't want to be the top guy and was more interested in developing players.
Ugh. I read the comments to that Reusse column. Damn my eyes.
Ooof, I felt bad enough clicking through and seeing pretty wild speculation from ol' Patrick, can't imagine what the Stribbers have been contributing.
I am curious just how desirable the position is if multiple people have rebuffed them. Of course, maybe the multiple is two: AA and Cherington.
Under the current infrastructure, wouldn't whomever hired have to report to DSP? Can't imagine that's a selling point.
I don't think DSP has ever had much say in day-to-day baseball stuff. He'd be the boss sort of but I would think be mostly hands off.
Hasn't his role been changing though?
Actually, that's the nicest thing I've ever read from Reusse on Mauer. He actually talked about something being wrong with Mauer instead of calling him a big sissy (or worse).
You can watch for a month and count on two hands the number of balls that he meets on the fat part of the bat and hits on a line.
Maybe Reusse can, but whoever classifies line drives sees 30% of the balls Joe put in play are line drives, which is a career best. Also, his K and BB rates are the best they've been since 2012. And his percentage of hits that go for extra bases is in line with his career numbers.
Yeah, that part got me, too. Either Reusse isn't watching the games, or he's got selective memory.
Yeah, Reusse's actually suggesting the opposite of being a sissy--that all this time, Joe's been silently battling something without going public about what he's been struggling with. I don't think Reusse is crazy to suggest this. For one thing, if your Joe Mauer, based on the reaction to the bilateral leg weakness DL stint, why would you bother trying to explain anything? They're just going to call you childish names regardless, and Torii Hunter is going to tell you that your problem is imaginary and you just need to man up.
If you go with the theory that whatever caused the bilateral leg weakness DL stint from 2011 is still around and affecting him, and the concussion problem just kind of clouded the picture, I could buy it. Mauer's SO% went up significantly in 2012 and then more in 2013 to about where it's been the last four years. Going from the 8-10% to 16-18% is a really huge difference, and he still managed to have some value at this strikeout rate in 2013, but he dropped off since then.
2013 was also the only season since 2010 where Mauer has hit a decent FB%. Looking at his batted ball stats, from '07-'10, Mauer was in the 27-29% FB% range, and his GB% was trending down with LD% improving. Then 2011 hit, and suddenly he was down to a 20-22% FB% that has been consistent with the exception of 2013.
Mauer's one of the few players I'd compare to Ichiro, and if you look at Ichiro, he's been able to keep his SO% down under 12% for all but one year of his career, and often below 10%. That's what Mauer was doing up through 2011. Also, if you look at Rod Carew, Carew wasn't always such a contact guy, but from 1973 to the end of his career, he always kept his SO% under 11%.
This makes me sad, but it also makes better sense for an explanation of Mauer's fall-off. Moving to first base should have helped him more that it has.
Maybe Reusse can, but whoever classifies line drives sees 30% of the balls Joe put in play are line drives, which is a career best.
I actually think Reusse has some basis in reality here. Mauer's LD% went up when his SO% went up. I don't think he's really hitting more line drives, he's just putting fewer balls in play. And fangraphs has Mauer at 27.6%, lower but essentially the same as his 27.7% in 2013. But Mauer was really hitting his stride as a hitter more when he was striking out a lot less--essentially half as much as he does today--and hitting more fly balls, which can become home runs, or even gap doubles, and are less likely to become double plays, which in all honesty he's hit into quite a bit over the years.
I don't think Reusse is crazy to suggest this. For one thing, if your Joe Mauer, based on the reaction to the bilateral leg weakness DL stint, why would you bother trying to explain anything?
Yeah, that kind of reminds me of this:
I dunno, maybe she didn't give daily health updates because every time she scratches her nose FOX claims she has Ebola-cancer.
Line drives that go the other way for a single aren't line drives. They are pussy singles.
Here is a month of watching Joe: August 2016.
Slash line of 337/419/533 with 13 XBH in 105 PA.
Joe had a terrible June and a bad July. He was excellent in April/May, pedestrian in May, outstanding in August. It adds up to a year that is below our Mind's Eye standard for Joe when he was great, but not exactly a "bad" year. He's had a 94 sOPS+ as a first baseman this year, placing him a bit below average for 1Bs.
I find this way to slice-and-dice his splits interesting as well. Here are his slash lines against fly ball pitchers, average fly/ground pitchers, and groundball pitchers, respectively:
Type
PA
Avg
OBP
SLG
Fly ball
211
283
389
450
Avg F/G
260
282
365
396
Ground ball
86
194
326
292
So, SSST with the ground ball pitchers, I suppose. But still really bad.
FWIW, over his career, he doesn't show that kind of dose-response pattern to ground ball pitching. His career OPS against ground ball pitchers is 835, against avg F/G is 808, and against fly ball pitchers, 878.
Isn't "a bit below average for 1Bs" damning with faint praise? We're talking about someone who used to be one of the few best players in baseball. He was basically replacement level last year (0.2 fWAR) and hasn't been a lot better than that this year. I love the guy, but he's a shadow of his former self.
So much this ... makes me sad because, even when he was one of the few best players in baseball, it felt like lots-o folks round here* either didn't fully appreciate it, or took him for granted.
*Twins Territory 'here', not basement 'here'
Well, true. He went from "transcendent" to average. That is a big fall.
It's been pointed out to me that had he suffered a career-ending injury instead of things he could play through, he'd have likely been a lock for the HOF. I agree with that notion, but also argue he should still qualify.
I beg to differ. Kirby was no lock for the HOF, and he had more time to build his counting stats than a career-ending Mauer (plus two WS runs). Yes Joe had a great run at catcher, but most HOF voters will not extrapolate a career cut that short. Koufax wasn't really a lock for the HOF, and some would say is overrated in his HOF credentials. Except for the fact that he was a catcher and had the BA titles, Joe's career (had it ended early) is more Mattingly-like than Kirby.
Except for the fact that he was a catcher and had the BA titles, Joe's career (had it ended early) is more Mattingly-like than Kirby.
Neither Mattingly or Kirby are remotely close to the Top 10 all-time at their positions.
I am and will be of the opinion that he should be in based on his years as catcher, no matter what his stats look like after.
the comp is not Kirby, it's Thurman Munson.
Munson played in 11 seasons before dying in a plane crash. 5905 PA. ROY, 7 ASG appearances, 1 MVP, 3 fielding Grammies, 116 OPS+, 45.9 rWAR. 12th-ranked catcher by JAWS. Average rWAR for 14 HOF catchers is 52.7. Munson also captained a NYY squad that appeared in 3 straight World Series, winning 2.
Joe 2004-2013 as a primary catcher: 5060 PA. 6 ASG, 1 MVP, 3 fielding Grammies, 135 OPS+, 44.2 rWAR. For his full career, 50.2 rWAR. Ranked 9th among catchers by JAWS.
Joe's MVP and 3 batting titles are sexy and put him in the conversation, but I don't know that he'd get the kind of love from HOF voters that a recently dead Munson did, and Munson peaked at 15.5 pct of the vote in his first year on the ballot. He never got double digits again.
Munson was a Yankee, so his chances were greater than most.
That's why Posada's HoF candidacy will be crucial to figuring out Mauer's chances. FWIW, Mauer's nearly as close to Piazza as Posada is to Mauer in cumulative value.
Right, the Yankee effect is an important qualitative consideration, as is the captaincy of back-to-back WS champions. And it still didn't get Munson close to election.
perhaps in part because of the Bench effect. It's hard playing in the same period as the all-time greatest player at your position.
Reds catcher Johnny Bench was named World Series MVP. A fairly obvious comparison of opposing backstops was made to Reds manager Sparky Anderson during the post-World Series press conference, to which, Anderson responded, "Munson is an outstanding ballplayer and he would hit .300 in the National League, but you don't ever compare anybody to Johnny Bench. Don't never embarrass nobody by comparing them to Johnny Bench." Munson was visibly upset by these comments when he got on the mic shortly afterwards.
Mauer, on the other hand, has toiled in relative media obscurity in Minnesota, punished by the hometown media for not slugging like Johnny Bench or Mike Piazza at the plate. Instead, he was merely 5th all-time in fWAR-7 amongst catchers (38.5, behind Carter, Bench, Piazza and Pudge, and just ahead of the likes of Fisk, Berra, Munson, and Cochrane).
In a way, Mauer's popularity suffered from him being a uniquely valuable player, but unique in a way that was very Minnesotan--not flashy, just out there getting the job done. And a lot of his value derived from being very good at everything (including baserunning, for which I think he is/was sorely underrated) and elite at the most "boring" aspects of the game (like getting walks, fielding a relatively thankless position.)
He was really the anti-Torii from that standpoint. Even throwing out a baserunner, while exciting, doesn't generate a highlight film take like a diving catch from a center fielder. Hunter--a very good player in his own right--was a jock's favorite baseball player and Mauer was always an accountant's favorite baseball player. And there aren't too many accountants voting for the HOF.
There are significantly fewer i's in Joe Mauer as well.
I don't see a game log for #146, so I'll post here. BULLDOZE'D
Figures I sit in Old Chicago in Omaha watching the game (close captioned) and only see a slow death by Kinsler, and when I pick up and leave all heck breaks loose from the Twins' bats.
And now that I'm back watching again at the HQ building we're back to a slow death by Kinsler again. Guess I'll take one for the team and tune out again.
If the season ended today, Brian Dozier would have the 6th highest one season SLG% (.577) in Twins history.
Jim Thome .627 2010
Justin Morneau .618 2010
Harmon Killebrew .606 1961
Joe Mauer .587 2009
Harmon Killebrew .584 1969
Brian Dozier .577 2016
Oh, the gentleman masher how I miss thee.
JI JIM is Mrs. Hayes' all-time favorite player. She gets wistful every time I find a Thome highlight. Had she grown up in Minnesota, I think Hrbek would've found a place in her heart, too, but the Bunyanesque joy with which Jim mashed taters just speaks to her.
Still a prized posession
Despite those two franchise-historic SLG seasons in 2010, the club still finished only 4th in the AL in SLG, mostly because the club was 9th in HRs (1st in triples, 3rd in doubles). Three regulars (JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson and DSPAN) finished with SLGs under .400 (DSPAN was a woeful .348).
Also, those two players didn't play full seasons.
Why is there a pussy singles hitter on that list???!!!!
Volume. Sheer, sheer, volume.
so, you are saying that SLG is a counting stat?
Mauer's singles go to 11.
CC to Philos, mags, interested others: I'm up to about fifteen ideas for WGOM podcast episodes. About half are Twins or baseball-related, a third Minnesota topics, and the last three music-focused. Six of the fifteen are drafts.
If you want to shoot me an e-mail, I'd be happy to add it to my collection. I've been thinking more about recurring features than episode-long topics, so this could be a great lead.
I'm starting to get it into my head that, come October, we'd set out some sort of call for guests/ideas, and then maybe start recording in Novemberish.
Copy me in on those emails if you would please.
Would you do weekly episodes?
I was thinking weekly would be too much, and was hoping for twice monthly.
Twice monthly seems much more sustainable.
what about every other week?
...
24 seems much more doable than 26.
Happy to send them along. Not sure I have your contact info, though.
matthewbnovak
Just like that, at the google product.
I was thinking of working on a genealogy post while in surgery recovery week in mid-October, but might it be better as a podcast, maybe with submitted questions from Citizens ahead of time? I could go in many directions as it's a broad topic, but if we had specifics then it would tailor better to what folks are interested in.
ooo, those WGOM Radio headers i made might finally get put to use.
I'm certainly game for those. Also, if the topic veers to board games, I'm all over that.
So next year between April 3 and April 23 the Twins will play in the following cities: Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland.
They will have a 10 game home stand in April.
They play the Milwaukee Brewers Monday through Thursday in August.
Read about all the gory details:
http://www.startribune.com/the-2017-schedule-has-been-released/393429011/
They know we don't play in a dome anymore, right?
Yeah, that opening line conjured a mental image I didn't need...
...
i hadn't considered that, erm... "angle".
( ° ʖ °)
So if Milwaukee is the big interleague rival, why does MLB keep scheduling mid week 2 game home and home series.
It's like they don't want either team to sell out the stadium
To be fair, they've been doing that in Chicago lately too (and NY?). Makes no sense that I can figure.
Required by schedule makers according to the Prez.
What a day to be a Twins fan.
54-91, worst record in the majors
Jeff Passan reports that "Multiple GM types have rebuffed their interest so far" in the President of Baseball Ops position.
Patrick Reusse drops a scalding hot take on Mauer.
Timberwolves training camp cannot arrive soon enough.
My god, what have we come to?
At least Cherrington's rejection is because he got a different job?
But not even a GM job, so he took a less important job than the Twins might possibly offer.
Cherington took a VP job, so lateral but above the GM. Cherington will be focusing on the player development side of things too. My read is that he didn't want to be the top guy and was more interested in developing players.
Ugh. I read the comments to that Reusse column. Damn my eyes.
Ooof, I felt bad enough clicking through and seeing pretty wild speculation from ol' Patrick, can't imagine what the Stribbers have been contributing.
The googles do nothing.*
* I made the same mistake
actually, the googles are quite useful.
C'mon, y'all, we've been through this.
To paraphrase Jim Bouton in "Ball Four", people don't understand how it can hurt you to play when it doesn't hurt them to watch you play.
But Passan followed that up with,
I am curious just how desirable the position is if multiple people have rebuffed them. Of course, maybe the multiple is two: AA and Cherington.
Under the current infrastructure, wouldn't whomever hired have to report to DSP? Can't imagine that's a selling point.
I don't think DSP has ever had much say in day-to-day baseball stuff. He'd be the boss sort of but I would think be mostly hands off.
Hasn't his role been changing though?
Actually, that's the nicest thing I've ever read from Reusse on Mauer. He actually talked about something being wrong with Mauer instead of calling him a big sissy (or worse).
Maybe Reusse can, but whoever classifies line drives sees 30% of the balls Joe put in play are line drives, which is a career best. Also, his K and BB rates are the best they've been since 2012. And his percentage of hits that go for extra bases is in line with his career numbers.
Yeah, that part got me, too. Either Reusse isn't watching the games, or he's got selective memory.
Yeah, Reusse's actually suggesting the opposite of being a sissy--that all this time, Joe's been silently battling something without going public about what he's been struggling with. I don't think Reusse is crazy to suggest this. For one thing, if your Joe Mauer, based on the reaction to the bilateral leg weakness DL stint, why would you bother trying to explain anything? They're just going to call you childish names regardless, and Torii Hunter is going to tell you that your problem is imaginary and you just need to man up.
If you go with the theory that whatever caused the bilateral leg weakness DL stint from 2011 is still around and affecting him, and the concussion problem just kind of clouded the picture, I could buy it. Mauer's SO% went up significantly in 2012 and then more in 2013 to about where it's been the last four years. Going from the 8-10% to 16-18% is a really huge difference, and he still managed to have some value at this strikeout rate in 2013, but he dropped off since then.
2013 was also the only season since 2010 where Mauer has hit a decent FB%. Looking at his batted ball stats, from '07-'10, Mauer was in the 27-29% FB% range, and his GB% was trending down with LD% improving. Then 2011 hit, and suddenly he was down to a 20-22% FB% that has been consistent with the exception of 2013.
Mauer's one of the few players I'd compare to Ichiro, and if you look at Ichiro, he's been able to keep his SO% down under 12% for all but one year of his career, and often below 10%. That's what Mauer was doing up through 2011. Also, if you look at Rod Carew, Carew wasn't always such a contact guy, but from 1973 to the end of his career, he always kept his SO% under 11%.
This makes me sad, but it also makes better sense for an explanation of Mauer's fall-off. Moving to first base should have helped him more that it has.
I actually think Reusse has some basis in reality here. Mauer's LD% went up when his SO% went up. I don't think he's really hitting more line drives, he's just putting fewer balls in play. And fangraphs has Mauer at 27.6%, lower but essentially the same as his 27.7% in 2013. But Mauer was really hitting his stride as a hitter more when he was striking out a lot less--essentially half as much as he does today--and hitting more fly balls, which can become home runs, or even gap doubles, and are less likely to become double plays, which in all honesty he's hit into quite a bit over the years.
Line drives that go the other way for a single aren't line drives. They are pussy singles.
Here is a month of watching Joe: August 2016.
Slash line of 337/419/533 with 13 XBH in 105 PA.
Joe had a terrible June and a bad July. He was excellent in April/May, pedestrian in May, outstanding in August. It adds up to a year that is below our Mind's Eye standard for Joe when he was great, but not exactly a "bad" year. He's had a 94 sOPS+ as a first baseman this year, placing him a bit below average for 1Bs.
I find this way to slice-and-dice his splits interesting as well. Here are his slash lines against fly ball pitchers, average fly/ground pitchers, and groundball pitchers, respectively:
So, SSST with the ground ball pitchers, I suppose. But still really bad.
FWIW, over his career, he doesn't show that kind of dose-response pattern to ground ball pitching. His career OPS against ground ball pitchers is 835, against avg F/G is 808, and against fly ball pitchers, 878.
Isn't "a bit below average for 1Bs" damning with faint praise? We're talking about someone who used to be one of the few best players in baseball. He was basically replacement level last year (0.2 fWAR) and hasn't been a lot better than that this year. I love the guy, but he's a shadow of his former self.
So much this ... makes me sad because, even when he was one of the few best players in baseball, it felt like lots-o folks round here* either didn't fully appreciate it, or took him for granted.
*Twins Territory 'here', not basement 'here'
Well, true. He went from "transcendent" to average. That is a big fall.
It's been pointed out to me that had he suffered a career-ending injury instead of things he could play through, he'd have likely been a lock for the HOF. I agree with that notion, but also argue he should still qualify.
I beg to differ. Kirby was no lock for the HOF, and he had more time to build his counting stats than a career-ending Mauer (plus two WS runs). Yes Joe had a great run at catcher, but most HOF voters will not extrapolate a career cut that short. Koufax wasn't really a lock for the HOF, and some would say is overrated in his HOF credentials. Except for the fact that he was a catcher and had the BA titles, Joe's career (had it ended early) is more Mattingly-like than Kirby.
Neither Mattingly or Kirby are remotely close to the Top 10 all-time at their positions.
I am and will be of the opinion that he should be in based on his years as catcher, no matter what his stats look like after.
the comp is not Kirby, it's Thurman Munson.
Munson played in 11 seasons before dying in a plane crash. 5905 PA. ROY, 7 ASG appearances, 1 MVP, 3 fielding Grammies, 116 OPS+, 45.9 rWAR. 12th-ranked catcher by JAWS. Average rWAR for 14 HOF catchers is 52.7. Munson also captained a NYY squad that appeared in 3 straight World Series, winning 2.
Joe 2004-2013 as a primary catcher: 5060 PA. 6 ASG, 1 MVP, 3 fielding Grammies, 135 OPS+, 44.2 rWAR. For his full career, 50.2 rWAR. Ranked 9th among catchers by JAWS.
Joe's MVP and 3 batting titles are sexy and put him in the conversation, but I don't know that he'd get the kind of love from HOF voters that a recently dead Munson did, and Munson peaked at 15.5 pct of the vote in his first year on the ballot. He never got double digits again.
Munson was a Yankee, so his chances were greater than most.
That's why Posada's HoF candidacy will be crucial to figuring out Mauer's chances. FWIW, Mauer's nearly as close to Piazza as Posada is to Mauer in cumulative value.
Right, the Yankee effect is an important qualitative consideration, as is the captaincy of back-to-back WS champions. And it still didn't get Munson close to election.
perhaps in part because of the Bench effect. It's hard playing in the same period as the all-time greatest player at your position.
Mauer, on the other hand, has toiled in relative media obscurity in Minnesota, punished by the hometown media for not slugging like Johnny Bench or Mike Piazza at the plate. Instead, he was merely 5th all-time in fWAR-7 amongst catchers (38.5, behind Carter, Bench, Piazza and Pudge, and just ahead of the likes of Fisk, Berra, Munson, and Cochrane).
In a way, Mauer's popularity suffered from him being a uniquely valuable player, but unique in a way that was very Minnesotan--not flashy, just out there getting the job done. And a lot of his value derived from being very good at everything (including baserunning, for which I think he is/was sorely underrated) and elite at the most "boring" aspects of the game (like getting walks, fielding a relatively thankless position.)
He was really the anti-Torii from that standpoint. Even throwing out a baserunner, while exciting, doesn't generate a highlight film take like a diving catch from a center fielder. Hunter--a very good player in his own right--was a jock's favorite baseball player and Mauer was always an accountant's favorite baseball player. And there aren't too many accountants voting for the HOF.
There are significantly fewer i's in Joe Mauer as well.
I don't see a game log for #146, so I'll post here. BULLDOZE'D
Figures I sit in Old Chicago in Omaha watching the game (close captioned) and only see a slow death by Kinsler, and when I pick up and leave all heck breaks loose from the Twins' bats.
And now that I'm back watching again at the HQ building we're back to a slow death by Kinsler again. Guess I'll take one for the team and tune out again.