Cup of Coffee

September 20, 2016: False Alarm

49 Comments

Skim's original due date was September 20th, and as the date approaches each year I have to remind myself it isn't actually a significant one for our family. But if it's significant for yours: party hearty, gang.

49 thoughts on “September 20, 2016: False Alarm”

  3. Apparently SI laid off a large part of its writing staff recently, including Cliff Corcoran, who was probably my second-favorite writer there behind Jay Jaffe. The 4ltr has finally removed the .go.com portion of its URL, recently enough that the Repository page for the 4ltr's web presence still lists the old URL, which dates to the late 1990s. This got me thinking about the way I've followed baseball, particularly baseball writers, has changed over the last twenty years.

    I was an avid Rob Neyer reader in the mid/late-90s; he's the first online columnist I can remember following with regularity. In those early days I mostly read writers like Neyer & Jim Caple at the 4ltr, plus whoever had a Twins column published online at the Strib. We didn't subscribe to the paper copy of the Strib or PiPress, so any other baseball news came from whatever copies of Baseball America I could find at the public library. As far as Twins-specific writing online, I found DTFC first, then AG, TwinsGeek, The Hardball Times, and Batgirl around the same time, which coincided with owning my first computer. Not too long after that I found my way into the old basement, back before the (perceived) swivel factor was high enough to daunt a newbie. Being frequently single & geographically isolated from most of my social structure meant I had more free time, so I read USSM & Lookout Landing even though I didn't care about the Mariners, plus Geoff Young's Ducksnorts & a couple other Padres blogs. Eventually things like Beyond the Box Score & Fangraphs came online, and about a decade ago I started using an RSS reader to follow all of these sites. (My Bookmarks folder has never recovered.) I've followed some writers as they've moved from personal blogs or smaller websites to larger, more corporate publications, but most of these have slowly dropped off my radar, whether from attitudinal tedium (TG, AG, Calcaterra), paywall (Neyer, I think), or jumping fatigue (JoePos, sadly). I think the only baseball writers I make a point to regularly read anymore are Jaffe, Jeff Sullivan, Ed Thoma, and Trueblood (thanks, Philos!).

    The basement has been a regular part of my baseball digest for longer than anything else. But the changes at SI suggest that maybe it's time I rethink the rest of my diet. The Hardball Times still publishes interesting stuff, though I don't always read it. So I'm soliciting recommendations. What/who are you reading regularly, and why do you like it/them?

    1. Neyer was also my early favorite. I remember exchanging emails with him re: rookie Randy Moss -- you know, back when I cared (a little). But the funny thing is, I still go first to the boxscore for my Twins info...I just go to a different medium to get it than I did as a kid.

    2. I subscribe to Joe Pos's mailing list, so I still get to read most of his stuff as he'll link to it. Never had to figure out where he was working at the time.

      Hardball Times is one of those I check on occasion but I ignore about 75% of the articles. The fun ones, though, are pretty fun.

      I don't have any new ones for you, other than suggesting subscribing to Joe Pos at his personal website.

      1. I may go that route for JoePos. With all the moves it became too hard to know where to find his stuff, and while I admire his omnivorous approach, I just don't care about football/golf/Olympics. I read him for baseball, some cultural writing, and dad stuff.

          1. Agreed. He's a great human interest story writer. So while I don't care about golf, I'll read an article about Arnold Palmer the human.

    3. ESPN being at espn.go.com always baffled me. Such a huge thing but forced to be a sub-domain.

      The amount of reading I've done for baseball has plummeted over the years. Having kids has been the largest reason but thinking about it more, I've transitioned to reading about work-related topics in my reading time. The Twins being terrible has contributed as I just don't care to read about awful teams run by management that I think is incompetent. The three sites that are in my RSS feed are the ghost of Hardball Talk, Fangraphs, and Tango's blog. HBT's redesign pretty much killed it for me. It's no longer as pleasant to read. Fangraphs is consistently interesting but I read them only in the evening and they lose out to other things in my limited time. Tango was recently hired by MLBAM so his blog has become more interesting with a lot of Statcast-heavy posts. He has a recent post about Robbie Grossman that shows he is a bad fielder and contrasts that with Jake Marisnick because the Astros released Grossman in favor of Marisnick.

      That's the entirety of my regular baseball reading. I am curious what others have as I'm going to try to bring in more baseball reading. There are so many baseball data projects I want to do but they all take so long that I lose motivation.

      1. I was unaware Tango kept his blog after getting a gig with MLBAM – usually those things seem to go away. I'll have to check that out; thanks for the tip!

        I'ved used NewsBlur as my RSS reader ever since Google pulled the plug on Reader. The intelligence training keeps the number of articles in my Focus stream down. (Websites that tag posts or provide author bylines get extra credit in this system since those posts are easier to filter.) As a result of loving my RSS reader, I can't tell you when the last time I had to contend with THT's website, although I know they redesigned it a few years back. I have to click through occasionally for Fangraphs when there's a large table in the post.

      2. There are so many baseball data projects I want to do but they all take so long that I lose motivation.

        I think this is why I've essentially stopped following SABR-ish stuff. Back in the early aughts, the work that was being done could be double-checked with some internet queries to find data, a spreadsheet application, and some time (easier to come by in your early 20s.)

        At this point to really get into doing interesting work, you have to set up a reasonably good database from which to query and then probably crunch the data in something like R. For my tastes, I'm happy to use R for days and I can SQL enough to get by, but I don't really have the time or desire to set up the type of database I'd need.

        And without being able to use the more complicated data, it's a lot less satisfying for me to read something where I disagree with the methods, but can't actually show that if they looked at the data differently, they would see how they aren't really looking at things correctly.

        But I still stop by here for the people.

        1. That and I have little time every week to work on this stuff that it stretches out over weeks.

          Creating the databases is relatively easy for me. I did the streak stuff from earlier this season in less than a week. If you (or anyone else!) are interested, I could probably build the databases without a large amount of effort and share them.

    4. Ah, the old DTFC. That was where I first began my online identity as SoCalTwinsfan. That was back when I was working evenings at the newspaper, so I would follow games online and comment in game logs on DTFC. It wasn't too long after I discovered SBG's old site (along with TwinsGeek, Nick & Nick and Seth Stohs) plus Aaron Gleeman somewhere along in there. I originally just read SBG's articles and read comments anonymously but eventually joined in with the community at SBG and stopped going to DTFC because the arguments were too often getting too heated.

  4. I'll be heading to the game tomorrow night. Anyone in that area interested in grabbing a bite to eat or a drink pre-game?

    1. I'm interested, maybe even in the game, depending on the weather (which is forecast to be terrible). Last time for me to get to the ballpark this year. Keep me in the loop.

      1. Cool. I'm taking an attorney who has been instrumental in helping me get my practice set up, and I suspect we'll be meeting just before game time, so I'll have a while to kill before that.

        Recommendations on a good spot to hang out beforehand?

  5. Pulled into my parking spot. Turned to grab my shirt (I typically drive in my undershirt, Because Hot). No shirt. Second time in the past 3 months.

    I need a vacation. Or at least a work-from-home morning, which is what this has turned into.

    1. Somehow the idea of you driving around in your undershirt due to hot weather makes me think Fear and Loathing in Sacramento.

  6. New bird at the feeder in Scandia. Went through the birder book a couple times but could not find a good match.

    Main characteristics: med-to-large bird (like a small cardinal) - striking markings on the face (like Egyptian mascara-effect), spottled black-grey back feathers (like whipporwill coloration), and long drooping tail feathers. Also, a patient feeder, taking it's time to load up. Any thoughts?

    2. There are a handful of possible species where females are more camouflaged, as you describe. I would think getting a description of the face markings ought to get us to an answer. Female red-winged blackbirds don't hit our feeder as often as the males do, and they have the kind of coloring you describe, with some eye striping. Not sure about the long tail, though.

  7. was watching the Giants at Dodgers last night and saw the MadBum/Puig kerfuffle. Dudes with too much testosterone. It was completely pointless.

    That said, it had zero to do with the outcome of the game. MadBum got lifted after 7 innings of 10-K, 1-hit ball, for a pinch hitter, leading 1-0. He was going to get lifted whether he had words with Puig or not. Similarly, the Dodgers lifted Kershaw in the bottom of the 6th for a PH, despite Kershaw having thrown only 88 pitches. That's what you do when you are in a tight game late--you pinch-hit for the pitcher to try to get a run.

    2. I wonder what the breakdown would be for super-elite starters and when it's worth gaining a percentage chance to score a run (pinch hitting for the pitcher with what - you would hope - is a better hitter) versus losing the percentage chance that your pitcher is going to get through the next inning without giving up a run (replacing the elite starter with an inferior reliever).

      1. Well, I think we could do some back-of-envelope calculations. Assume that the OBP difference between a starting pitcher and a PH is .100. Plug that difference into run expectancy tables to ballpark the expected marginal impact on scoring a run. Now compare expected runs allowed for having your starter pitch another inning or two vs. going to the bullpen.

        My guess is that for your elite starter facing the order for a third time, the margin in expected runs allowed vs. going to the bullpen is pretty small, as is the effect of the PH on expected runs scored. So it comes down to "feel" and matchups. For a lesser starter, the balance swings more clearly to pinch hitting.

        1. There was some investigation into this when La Russa let Carpenter finish a 1-0 shutout in the division series clincher. The conclusion was that a pitcher that was on for that game tended to do better than the usual N-times through the order stats.

  8. I have a quick Excel question. I'm trying to figure out how to calculate my grade so far through my semester. I have data as such

    grade possible
    10 10
    9 10
    9 10
    10
    10

    Right now I have a 28/30, but if I put Grade=Sum(A2:A5)/Sum(B2:B5) then I get 28/50.

    I know what all my assignments are going to be worth already, but I'm only on Week 4, so that's all the data I have. How can I incorporate a count of scores in col A so that my range in ColB matches?

      1. That would be assuming that none of the scores are actually 0. I would tend to keep things simple and just not put in the possible amount until I entered in the Grade amount.

        1. For calculating current grade, that make sense. But I have a second row where I have a calculation:

          (Total Points Possible*0.9)-(Points Scored So Far)/(Number of Empty Cells) = What I have to average going forward to get an A.
          [(Sum(B1:B5)*.9)-sum(A1:A5)]/countblank(A1:A5) = [(50*.9)-28]/2= 8.5 points/assignment for an A

          So I'd like to keep that column there to make sure I'm on track for things.

    3. Dunno why my google-fu let me down earlier, but I found this video straight away when I tried again. Worked perfectly, but I would have never come up with it on my own.

      httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGNEBj42CWU

      For the dummy data here, the formula for current percentage is =sum(A1:A5)/sumifs(B1:B5, A1:A5, "<>")

      The sumifs says "Sum the range B1:B5 including only the cells where the corresponding cell in A1:A5 is not ["<>"] empty"

Comments are closed.