It was apparently the end of some minor league ballplayers yesterday, at least as far as their time with the Twins is concerned. I haven't found an article, but Heiker Meneses, Jairo Rodriguez, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Wilfredo Tovar, Nick Greenwood, Omar Bencomo, and Carlos Paulino are no longer listed as Twins players in winter ball, so I assume the Twins have cut ties with them.
See, this is why it's best to get off Facebook and come over here.
This site. You guys (inclusive). This buttresses my faith in the world.
I didn't watch any of the game but share the sentiment.
One fourth of my staff has called in sick.
I'm not calling in sick, but I am.
I'm here but I don't have any idea how I'm going to get anything done today.
I have a question/comment. This isn't about politics but about predictions.
If I say there is a 15-30% chance of something happening and it happens, does that mean I was wrong? If I tell you there is an 83.33% chance that you won't roll a 6 on a single role of the die, you can still role a 6.
sorry, but that attitude won't sell website clicks.
You wouldn't be wrong, but you shouldn't play those odds.
If we're talking about "Likelihood to Win" from last night, there's no gambling aspect here, of course. Unless you really gambled on it, which points to a bigger problem.
I wonder how many were shorting the stock market....
Nope, it doesn't mean you were wrong, it just makes your prediction difficult to verify if you only roll the die once every four years.
The only two election models I routinely saw leading up to the election were the NYT model and 538. I think 538's model was a lot better between the two--I don't think that the NYT model appropriately accounted for state-to-state correlations (or they were doing something else wrong), so they always had the polling favorite way out ahead, often 90+%, and 538 was always closer to 50% than the NYT model was.
But good luck convincing people 538 had a good model. Hell, meteorologists are continually getting better at forecasting the weather, but every time the most likely outcome doesn't come to pass, then it's all about how they can't predict anything.
I find it fascinating that humans are frankly obsessed with wanting to hear other people's predictions yet are generally not open-minded about that variance. Weather, sports, et cetera. I don't know if it's the desire to prove one's own superiority (i.e. ha ha you're dumb) or just wanting desperately to feel in control of the future.
Let's run it a few more times to check the percentages.
I don't know how I could have missed this yesterday, but the 2016 fielding grammys were announced. Must have had my mind on something else.
My 2-year old was in a wonderful mood this morning. Happy, energetic, and funny. He has no idea how much I needed that.
likewise. Despite how maddening they can be, adults can learn a lot from toddlers
yep, I'm going to enjoy the heck out of the kids choir tonight; just what is needed today
I've mentioned it before, but I spent 9/11 with a mess of unsuspecting toddlers. Strange but comforting dichotomy.
Why did I think you were out of the country on 9/11? I'm pretty sure you were the one friend I didn't speak to. Your sister, however, was nicer to me than she'd ever been in any interaction I'd had with her, so there was that.
My infant starts daycare Monday. I'm at the office, holding her right now. It is fantastic.
Seeing my 3-year-old dance naked through the house this morning was pretty spectacular.
My daughter, too (Sour Cream this time), was a source of comfort this morning without trying to be. She might be the best person I know.
My 17 year old was not much comfort. He was caught shooting a spring loaded air soft gun in city limits a few months back and we had court today. An adult was hit in the neck off a ricochet and called the cops. He was charged with discharging a FIREARM in public. So stupid and irresponsible, but it seems to me that is such a heavy charge to put on a minor's record. I got good advice and asked for a stay of adjudication, which the prosecutor fought, but a really nice judge accepted. My son has pretty much been a low maintenance kid, but I was not happy. At least the sun was out and it was a beautiful day.
I've noticed that parents are always on edge when they have to take their kids to court.
Shoot (eh? eh?) me a quick message at matthewbnovak using the google. I am aware of some things on this (generally, not specifically). It might be too late, but it's worth kicking the tires on.
I was unaware that airsoft guns were legally firearms.
Reminds me of a highschool acquaintance who had to deal with "explosive device" charges for a "Santeen Bomb". I never did hear about how that resolved.
...okay, I'll bite.
I guess most of the rest of the world calls them "Drano Bombs".
Someone local must have favored a brand of toilet-bowl cleaner generally used by custodial services rather than the home market, though we usually used store-brand. (Santeen is expensive!)
"Works Bombs"
someone knows.
How the heck a custodial-market cleaner got to be the local name is beyond me. I assumed it was a widespread name.
It makes me giddy to see "senton bomb" show up here.
Also Swanton bomb, which is the variation I remember best.
MN Supreme Court ruled on Oct. 19th that they are not firearms. Until that a MN court of appeals decision suggested that they were.
Are BB guns firearms by some MN decision?
Going through some laws and regulations years ago, I remember reading "firearms and air guns" or something like that whenever the scope needed to be broad enough to contain them.
(Might have been Anoka County Parks and Three Rivers Park District ordinances; I basically read them front to back.)
Pretty sure the distinction is all in propulsion method (air/spring vs. explosive force).
Since everyone is in such a good mood, how about that Twins pitching staff and Neil Allen retained as pitching coach? Discuss.
The fact that they made some selective cuts in coaching staff says a lot? They liked institutional pitching approach, but not hitting?
I think, from the outside, it's very hard to know whether a coach is doing a good job. In Neil Allen's case, we can see that the results weren't very good, but does that mean he's a bad pitching coach? I don't know.
I'm not sure that the pitchers were used well (not really Allen's fault) and I'm not sure that they were instructed well (ditto) so I'm hoping that the new FO has a bit more insight.
I hope Allen gets to work with better pitchers.
This is precisely the kind of innovative thinking we need to shake things up around here!
Just posting to observe that LAX still sucks, ten years after my last visit. Arriving passengers need to leave security and rescreen if their connecting flight boards in another terminal.
LaGuardia's the same way.
If it makes you feel better, LAX also sucks when it's at the beginning or end of your travel. Last time I dropped my wife off it took 90 minutes to drive the last 2.3 miles to the terminal.
True. I hate the drive north from LAX thru the NewJersey-barriered-101. But there's Randy's Donuts...
The 405 was my home for five years.
Is a 50 point lead going into the rd quarter safe for the Wolves? We'll find out tonight!
In the sample size of all Wolves games I've attended this year, they're the best team in the league. Nice to see another game living up to the reputation.
Ok, its a 27 point lead.
Wolves scoring 74 (!!!) at the half
They had 65 in the first half yesterday (and trailed by a point). Definitely a first-half team. I'm confident they can hold this lead, but I won't chalk it up just yet.
fwiw, I have engaged in several interesting, non-hysterical, respectful political conversations on the Bookface today. So I got that going for me. Which is nice.
Yeah, I feel like the country is slowly coming around on responsible FB political discourse. There's a long way to go, and memes will always be a thing, but slowly it's heading the right way.
Maybe I'm too optimistic.
I think you are. My bet is that 2020 will be worse.
I can do without all the clichéd platitudes, though
It was apparently the end of some minor league ballplayers yesterday, at least as far as their time with the Twins is concerned. I haven't found an article, but Heiker Meneses, Jairo Rodriguez, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Wilfredo Tovar, Nick Greenwood, Omar Bencomo, and Carlos Paulino are no longer listed as Twins players in winter ball, so I assume the Twins have cut ties with them.
So last night...
See, this is why it's best to get off Facebook and come over here.
This site. You guys (inclusive). This buttresses my faith in the world.
I didn't watch any of the game but share the sentiment.
One fourth of my staff has called in sick.
I'm not calling in sick, but I am.
I'm here but I don't have any idea how I'm going to get anything done today.
I have a question/comment. This isn't about politics but about predictions.
If I say there is a 15-30% chance of something happening and it happens, does that mean I was wrong? If I tell you there is an 83.33% chance that you won't roll a 6 on a single role of the die, you can still role a 6.
sorry, but that attitude won't sell website clicks.
You wouldn't be wrong, but you shouldn't play those odds.
If we're talking about "Likelihood to Win" from last night, there's no gambling aspect here, of course. Unless you really gambled on it, which points to a bigger problem.
From a couple days ago. Guessing there were a few nice payouts.
I wonder how many were shorting the stock market....
Nope, it doesn't mean you were wrong, it just makes your prediction difficult to verify if you only roll the die once every four years.
The only two election models I routinely saw leading up to the election were the NYT model and 538. I think 538's model was a lot better between the two--I don't think that the NYT model appropriately accounted for state-to-state correlations (or they were doing something else wrong), so they always had the polling favorite way out ahead, often 90+%, and 538 was always closer to 50% than the NYT model was.
But good luck convincing people 538 had a good model. Hell, meteorologists are continually getting better at forecasting the weather, but every time the most likely outcome doesn't come to pass, then it's all about how they can't predict anything.
I find it fascinating that humans are frankly obsessed with wanting to hear other people's predictions yet are generally not open-minded about that variance. Weather, sports, et cetera. I don't know if it's the desire to prove one's own superiority (i.e. ha ha you're dumb) or just wanting desperately to feel in control of the future.
Let's run it a few more times to check the percentages.
I don't know how I could have missed this yesterday, but the 2016 fielding grammys were announced. Must have had my mind on something else.
My 2-year old was in a wonderful mood this morning. Happy, energetic, and funny. He has no idea how much I needed that.
likewise. Despite how maddening they can be, adults can learn a lot from toddlers
yep, I'm going to enjoy the heck out of the kids choir tonight; just what is needed today
I've mentioned it before, but I spent 9/11 with a mess of unsuspecting toddlers. Strange but comforting dichotomy.
Why did I think you were out of the country on 9/11? I'm pretty sure you were the one friend I didn't speak to. Your sister, however, was nicer to me than she'd ever been in any interaction I'd had with her, so there was that.
My infant starts daycare Monday. I'm at the office, holding her right now. It is fantastic.
Seeing my 3-year-old dance naked through the house this morning was pretty spectacular.
My daughter, too (Sour Cream this time), was a source of comfort this morning without trying to be. She might be the best person I know.
My 17 year old was not much comfort. He was caught shooting a spring loaded air soft gun in city limits a few months back and we had court today. An adult was hit in the neck off a ricochet and called the cops. He was charged with discharging a FIREARM in public. So stupid and irresponsible, but it seems to me that is such a heavy charge to put on a minor's record. I got good advice and asked for a stay of adjudication, which the prosecutor fought, but a really nice judge accepted. My son has pretty much been a low maintenance kid, but I was not happy. At least the sun was out and it was a beautiful day.
I've noticed that parents are always on edge when they have to take their kids to court.
Shoot (eh? eh?) me a quick message at matthewbnovak using the google. I am aware of some things on this (generally, not specifically). It might be too late, but it's worth kicking the tires on.
I was unaware that airsoft guns were legally firearms.
Reminds me of a highschool acquaintance who had to deal with "explosive device" charges for a "Santeen Bomb". I never did hear about how that resolved.
...okay, I'll bite.
I guess most of the rest of the world calls them "Drano Bombs".
Someone local must have favored a brand of toilet-bowl cleaner generally used by custodial services rather than the home market, though we usually used store-brand. (Santeen is expensive!)
"Works Bombs"
someone knows.
How the heck a custodial-market cleaner got to be the local name is beyond me. I assumed it was a widespread name.
It makes me giddy to see "senton bomb" show up here.
Also Swanton bomb, which is the variation I remember best.
MN Supreme Court ruled on Oct. 19th that they are not firearms. Until that a MN court of appeals decision suggested that they were.
Are BB guns firearms by some MN decision?
Going through some laws and regulations years ago, I remember reading "firearms and air guns" or something like that whenever the scope needed to be broad enough to contain them.
(Might have been Anoka County Parks and Three Rivers Park District ordinances; I basically read them front to back.)
Pretty sure the distinction is all in propulsion method (air/spring vs. explosive force).
Since everyone is in such a good mood, how about that Twins pitching staff and Neil Allen retained as pitching coach? Discuss.
The fact that they made some selective cuts in coaching staff says a lot? They liked institutional pitching approach, but not hitting?
I think, from the outside, it's very hard to know whether a coach is doing a good job. In Neil Allen's case, we can see that the results weren't very good, but does that mean he's a bad pitching coach? I don't know.
I'm not sure that the pitchers were used well (not really Allen's fault) and I'm not sure that they were instructed well (ditto) so I'm hoping that the new FO has a bit more insight.
I hope Allen gets to work with better pitchers.
This is precisely the kind of innovative thinking we need to shake things up around here!
Just posting to observe that LAX still sucks, ten years after my last visit. Arriving passengers need to leave security and rescreen if their connecting flight boards in another terminal.
LaGuardia's the same way.
If it makes you feel better, LAX also sucks when it's at the beginning or end of your travel. Last time I dropped my wife off it took 90 minutes to drive the last 2.3 miles to the terminal.
True. I hate the drive north from LAX thru the NewJersey-barriered-101. But there's Randy's Donuts...
The 405 was my home for five years.
Is a 50 point lead going into the rd quarter safe for the Wolves? We'll find out tonight!
In the sample size of all Wolves games I've attended this year, they're the best team in the league. Nice to see another game living up to the reputation.
Ok, its a 27 point lead.
Wolves scoring 74 (!!!) at the half
They had 65 in the first half yesterday (and trailed by a point). Definitely a first-half team. I'm confident they can hold this lead, but I won't chalk it up just yet.
fwiw, I have engaged in several interesting, non-hysterical, respectful political conversations on the Bookface today. So I got that going for me. Which is nice.
Yeah, I feel like the country is slowly coming around on responsible FB political discourse. There's a long way to go, and memes will always be a thing, but slowly it's heading the right way.
Maybe I'm too optimistic.
I think you are. My bet is that 2020 will be worse.
I can do without all the clichéd platitudes, though