2017 Twins Game Logs

Game 18: Tigers at Twins

67 Comments

Michael Fulmer vs. Kyle Gibson

After the game yesterday, the Twins demoted Adalberto Mejia and put Justin Haley on the DL, but the corresponding moves weren't announced, although it was pretty clear that Jose Berrios was not one of those being called up. Late last night from LEN3: "Source says Vargas and Boshers coming up."

So the good news is that the Twins are going to a 12-man pitching staff and can win the series with a victory today. The bad news is they send out their worst starting pitcher to the mound today, at least thus far in the early going.

Twins management might argue that Mejia was the Twins' worst starter thus far this season, but while he struggled with control and it was almost painful to watch at times, his numbers still haven't been as bad as Gibson's, whose ERA and FIP are both north of 6. Gibson worked hard in the offseason to rework his mechanics. Thus far, you'd have to say it's still a work in progress at best.

Meanwhile, the Twins are waiting on the fallout from the scrum involving Miguel Sano yesterday, who threw a punch at Tigers catcher James McCann after the Tigers threw a pitch behind Sano in an obvious retaliation to Twins rookie pitcher Justin Haley hitting the Tigers' JaCoby Jones in the face with a pitch. When the Tigers' Matt Boyd threw behind Sano, he took a few steps toward Boyd and wagged his finger at Boyd to let him know he did not appreciate that. It was pretty obvious that Sano didn't intend to charge the mound, but while he was sending his message to Boyd, McCann jammed his catcher's glove (while still wearing his mask) in Sano's face and Sano reacted to it by throwing a punch at a guy in full catcher's gear.

The umpires did what was expected and ejected Sano as well as ejecting Boyd, apparently not for the pitch but for taking steps toward Sano that escalated the situation. Nothing happened to McCann, who was the obvious instigator.

The question now is what happens to those involved. MLB will be reviewing the situation, which could result in fines and/or suspensions. If Sano is suspended and nothing or little happens to McCann, I think the Twins would have a right to be indignant.

Mejia being sent out so quickly could also serve as a warning for Byron Buxton and his offensive struggles that he could be on a short leash. Inserting Kennys Vargas' bat into the lineup won't be easy since it means moving either Robbie Grossman (from DH) or Joe Mauer (from first base). Grossman has been the Twins' best hitter besides Sano, so Grossman will have to play a corner outfield spot to remain in the lineup, which means moving Max Kepler (who's been hitting well) or Eddie Rosario (who's been heating up the last few games after a very slow start).

Mauer would seem like a prime candidate to get reduced playing time because of his slow start at the plate. However, he's actually been hitting well with very poor luck, especially on line drives. He had another hard line drive that was caught in the outfield yesterday after hitting a double off the center field wall when taking over for Sano.

Buxton seems like a prime candidate to sit with Kepler or Rosario moving to center and Grossman taking over the vacant corner outfield spot and Vargas DHing. That seems very likely today since Buxton has sat Gibson's 2 previous starts as manager Paul Molitor hopes that Gibson gets back to his ground ball ways and thus Buxton's defense won't be needed as much.

Stat of the day: The Twins are 0-3 in 1-run games and are the only AL team that hasn't won a 1-run game. The Tigers are 5-1 in 1-run games. The Twins have a +12 run differential. The Tigers are -23.

67 thoughts on “Game 18: Tigers at Twins”

  4. Buxton sits but it's Santana in the outfield. Definitely a better choice for fielding than Grossman. Unfortunately he's been just as bad as Buxton.

  5. Early in-person scouting report: Danny Santana is still not an outfielder.

  10. There's an old saying, which I first heard from Earl Weaver, that when you play for one run, one run is all you'll get.

    In the bottom of the first, the Twins had a man on second with none out. Their next batter, Max Kepler, hit a ground ball to the right side to move the runner to third. Kepler got lots of love for that, at least from Dazzle, but it's a one-run strategy. And sure enough, the Twins got one run.

    In the top of the second, the Tigers had a man on second with none out. Their next batter, Alex Avila, did not hit a ground ball to the right side. He hit a home run, and the Tigers got two runs.

    Now, obviously, you can't just throw those facts out there and say "So there." But it is more evidence for the truth of Earl Weaver's old saying. I will grant that one run is better than zero runs. But when my first batter starts the game with a double, I'm hoping we'll get more than one run.

    2. There's also a saying, "If Kyle Gibson is pitching, you're going to need a lot more than one run."

    3. That's assuming that batters have that much control that they can "give themselves up" and intentionally make an out to move a runner, other than through a bunt, of course. I don't think that's the case. They could expand their zone and be more aggressive and that could cause them to hit the ball with less authority. I see no reason why they can't get a hit while simultaneously trying to move the runner over from second, especially a left-handed hitter. For Kepler, it's the most natural thing in the world since everybody has been playing him to pull. Later in the game, with no one on base, the Tigers were playing Kepler like teams used to play David Ortiz with the second baseman being a rover in right field. He pulls everything pretty much, so it might have just been a natural swing for him and just didn't square it up and advanced the runner. That might be why he's batting second, to take advantage of a hole on the right side or to move the runner if Dozier gets to second with no outs. I think righthanded batters can also attempt to move the runner without giving themselves up. Just try to get a hit up the middle or to the right side. If you get a hit, great. If not, at least move the runner up. The worst scenario would be making an out without advancing the runner, which makes it more likely that no runs score. Better 1 run than none.

  11. I enjoyed the scalper today trying to convince me to pay him $20 after I told him I wanted to know the price of his cheapest ticket because I could get one for $11 at the box office.

  12. Well, I think I am going to get a round of golf in. Sure beating watching Kyle Gibson trying to pitch.

  15. They've mentioned several times on radio--and I'm sure many of us had already noticed--that Gibson does fairly well the first time through the batting order and much worse the second and third times (when he can get to a third time). That makes me wonder if he would do better in the bullpen. He has never pitched in relief in the majors, but a relief pitcher who can take you one time through the batting order can be very valuable.

        1. The "hits" that went through Sano and Dozier caused three extra "earned" runs.

    4. Really bad the second time through the order but decent the third time through. So if he can make it two times through the order, going a third time is okay.

      Split PA OPS
      1st PA in G as SP 908 .714
      2nd PA in G as SP 890 .821
      3rd PA in G as SP 678 .695
      4th+ PA in G as SP 60 .698

      2. His "clutch" splits seems super random. .785 OPS against in a tie game, but .724/.726 when ahead/behind. .609 OPS against in "late and close."

        His runners on/off splits seem pretty normal, so he's probably not bad pitching from the stretch.

      3. On Bad Gibson days, he rarely sees batters a third time through the order. I really don't see Gibson gaining much from moving to the bullpen, not enough to make him more than a mediocre long reliever. His splits are very narrow, so he wouldn't get much advantage with a better platoon advantage. His K rate is terrible. He doesn't have 1 pitch that he can throw a lot 1 time through the order and do well with, such as Duffey and his curveball. And I really don't see his temperament being one that would enjoy relief pitching, such as Perkins seemed to like relieving and pitching max effort in short durations. Also, he's pitched in relief 2 in his pro career, so he has virtually no experience with it, unlike Duffey. Also, he had back problems last year, which is what May struggled with last year when he went to the bullpen. Plus, Gibson had TJ surgery in the minors.

        1. Long relief--"one time through the batting order"--is what I was thinking. Maybe he couldn't do it--the only way to find out is to try it. But I'd try it before I sent him to Rochester or released him.

        2. On Bad Gibson days, he rarely sees batters a third time through the order.

          That was what I was trying to imply. Gibson is better the third time through the order because of survivorship bias.

          His K rate is terrible.

          Moving to relief probably improves this. Tangotiger has his rule of 17. Pitchers' strikeout rate improves by 17% and their BABIP goes down by 17 points when moving to relief. Something also improves, but I can't remember what. Walk rate stays the same.

          Also, he's pitched in relief 2 in his pro career, so he has virtually no experience with it, unlike Duffey.

          He can learn. Does he have any options left? Even if not, I doubt another team will claim him if the Twins send him down to learn in a lower stress environment.

          Also, he had back problems last year, which is what May struggled with last year when he went to the bullpen.

          SSS. Seems like something baseball people would have noticed if every starter had back problems when moving to relief.

          Plus, Gibson had TJ surgery in the minors.

          That sucks but it doesn't prevent moving to relief.

          1. Not really convinced that survivorship bias is really a thing here. You would first have to show that for pitchers in general, performance the first two times through the lineup is correlated with performance the third time through the lineup--that pitchers actually have measureable good days and bad days and it's not just a matter of variance around one underlying normal level of performance--I'm not convinced of this.

            For instance, looking at Gibson alone, the third time through the lineup, his SO/BB gets markedly worse (2.29, 1.96, 1.54). Also, he's going to be facing the top of the order more often the third time through the lineup, so whatever survivorship bias you might have in play (which I'm not convinced of--plenty of pitchers fall apart after doing well to start off a game) you have to balance against the fact that he's more likely to be facing a team's best hitters in that third split.

            The most likely explanation to me, especially given the consistently declining SO/BB rates, is just that it's still relatively small samples and he's been fairly lucky OPS-wise the third time through the lineup.

            1. There's also the "survivorship" effect that a pitcher is more likely to get pulled after allowing a hit than after getting an out, which would tend to drive up his OPS against for the last time through the order.

        3. It's not like relief pitching is some crazy transition. It's still pitching. Same distance from the rubber to the plate. Nearly everyone who does both does better as a reliever, because it's easier to pitch an inning (or three) than it is to pitch six or seven innings. It's really unlikely that he becomes elite, but he could be serviceable.

    1. Not a great game, obviously. But you're at the ballpark with family on what looks like a fairly nice day. That still sounds like a win to me.

      1. I don't know. When I joined in the second inning I already had a near Twingo. A double play put me over, I think? I can't see the ones I already have.

        If the Twins have a handful of singles, I have a chance at a blackout.

  20. If you have eight relief pitchers and are still concerned that you don't have enough fresh arms, you're not managing your pitching staff very well, short starts or not.

  21. One of the worst things about blowouts is that they give Dazzle more time to talk about how today's players just aren't as tough as they were in his day.

  23. Good move to get Pressly out of there, because we've got to save him for--well, I'm not sure what it is we have to save him for.

    1. Wouldn't want Kintzler to have to throw more than 12 pitches over the span of 5 days.

  24. Need moar relievers!

    Although Gimenez declining warmup pitches is hilarious.

  26. I get what the ads for Twins' "Flex Plan" are trying to do, but to me they make it sound like you'd only come to a Twins game if you can't find anything better to do.

    1. Oy, yeah. I've thought the same. The afro-headed kid in the commercials has done a couple of industrials for Best Buy, and I've decided that if I run into him, I'll ask what the heck the director was thinking.

  27. So the Valet today became obsessed with Brian Dozier. He kept asking where Dozier was. We finally realized it's because we have a life-size Dozier cardboard cutout in our basement the Twins sent us a few years ago.

  28. Thanks for nothing, Bosher. He's your ticket back to Rochester. Apparently, the 1 in 1 million chance that someone would actually be stupid enough to claim Tonkin was too big of a risk to take.

    1. I'm not real tuned in right now, but I'm not picking up what you're putting down socal.

    2. I'll paraphrase what I said above. If you have eight relief pitchers and you have to make a roster move "to get a fresh arm for the bullpen", you're not managing your bullpen very well.

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