211 thoughts on “June 23, 2011: Stutter Step”

  1. I'm going to regret losing Game 3. Now I'm down 3-1 and staring elimination in the face. Plus, Jimmy Wynn broke his foot in Game 4.

  2. Here is how I see tonight going down:

    Cavs: Derek Williams
    It is funny, I honestly believe that gambling webpages sometimes offer much more interesting analysis than anything over at tWWL. I have seen on no less than three pages that I frequent saying something like the following: No team with an elite point guard has won the title since the Bad Boy Pistons. Point guards are replaceable, take the best wing or big.

    Now sure Derek Rose just won the MVP but think about it some more. Rondo wasn't elite in 2008. Kidd surely isn't a top point guard anymore. The Lakers, the Spurs, Bulls none of them had top level PG's. The best point guards to win a title the past 20 years were Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker.

    I think that counts for something. If the Cavs take Williams here they should be able to get Knight at 4 or Walker if they want to trade back. Then again, I'm not even sure the Cavs need a point guard. They need a center and help on the wings. I think you take Williams and rotate him at the 3/4.

    Wolves: Trade
    If the Cavs take Williams the Wolves HAVE to trade this pick. There will be teams willing to jump in for Irving. Maybe the Jazz for 3 and 12? Maybe the Rockets for Kevin Martin and 23 (dream scenario) or the Kings for Casspi and 7. The Suns might be in play for this pick, too.

    Jazz (or Wolves): Kanter
    I think I would be pleased with Kanter. He is a Kevin Love type (rebounding doesn't mean defense) with less of a outside game and better post moves. While I'm not in love with Kanter I think he is the best value for the Wolves here-- unless the can get an establish wing player in a trade.

    Rest of draft: whatever.

    1. I'm hoping they get Williams or Biyombo. The latter mostly because I like saying Biyombo. I wouldn't be shocked if they drafted & kept Irving unless they got a haul for him.

      1. If they draft Irving and keep him, he will suck. If they draft him and trade him, he will be the greatest.

          1. Not entirely. There are some guys who would suck even if the Wolves wouldn't have drafted them. Those are the guys most likely to be taken with the Wolves pick, though.

    2. I'm also quite pleased that this will mark the second straight draft in which the team has not had a head coach. Kahn is a master of timing.

        1. I can only hope that Rambis still has personnel input for this draft. That would be epic.

          1. Should have read the entire thread before posting 3 hours after Sean pointed this out.

      1. Wait, hasn't Rambis been head coach for two seasons? The Repository says he was hired in August 2009, so there wasn't a head coach for the 2009 draft but there had to be for the 2010 draft since he coached the adjacent seasons.

        1. Oh yeah, I guess I just forgot about his first season.

          I stand by my statement, though.

    3. This will be my sixth year going to the same bar to watch the NBA Draft with the same two friends. We play a fun game which I will outline below.

      The Cleveland Cavaliers are now on the clock:

      Person A) I will take Irving /inserts $1 into pot/
      Person B) I will take Derek Williams /inserts $1 into pot/
      Person C) TRADE! /inserts $1 into pot/

      Winner takes all of the money. If no one gets the answer correct the pot rolls over. We do this for the entire first round. Once you get to around the 10th pick and no one knows what they are talking about there have been some pretty big pots. Also, you get kind of drunk.

      I think my favorite part of this tradition is we go to a bar that we never go to any other night of the year. And now, thanks to bartenders in Buffalo being a life time profession, the bartender cracks up each year and tells us, see you next NBA draft.

          1. And I do get a kick out of that. I was in that joint only once, after being asked to leave Billy O's Golden Swan.

              1. I'm not sure. That particular time an "off duty" police officer stopped in, dressed in his uni, drank a fair bit and then asked us to leave. We took the hint.

      1. I'm not debating him as an all time great at the position. What I attempted to articulate was that at age 38 is not an elite point guard. I apologize if I didn't make that clear above.

        1. No worries, you were clear. Perhaps I wasn't, because the link may have not show it, but this season Kidd led the Mavs in Wins Produced. So I think he is still an elite guard.

          But your broader point still stands, regardless.

    4. The thing is, does anyone thing Williams is going to be the sort of player to lead you to a championship? Everything I've read about him seems to be pretty unenthusiastic compared to typical draft pick hype. This seems like a draft where you might find quality regulars on a championship squad, or you might get lucky on a high-risk, high-upside pick, but the top picks don't seem as valuable as usual #1 or #2 picks.

      I was reading rumors about the Wolves potential trading the #2 to Utah, but that they might not be able to fit Williams in at the 4 because they have other options. It seems like there are a lot of power forwards that can get the job done but not that many who are elite. If we don't think Williams is likely to be elite, then I say trade down or draft someone else, within reason.

      1. My dream would be to end the day with Biyombo (stellar defense and a great name and backstory) and Kevin Martin or Iguadala as a vet SG.

        1. I think we can all agree that Kevin Martin would be a best case scenario, yeah?

          1. Martin is a lousy defender, but that doesn't make him unusual for a 2-guard. And he's a very efficient scorer (career .599 TS pct and .507 eFG pct). I like him a lot. Pair him with a PG who distributes, and he would be a huge asset.

                  1. Okay, I have to edit this a little bit. How about this trade with the Rockets getting #2 and the Wolves getting #14 or #23

                    1. Yea, when you look at that, it's hard to imagine why Houston wouldn't want to make that trade. 😉

      2. What do the Wolves need to make them a championship contender?

        Uh, they need MUCH better players at about four positions. Or two superstars to go with a superior role player in K-Love.

        You would have to be incredibly lucky to get a superstar out of the number 2 pick this year and even luckier to get a superstar out of Rubio. But there you have it -- if you think those guys have all-star upside, this team could be a championship contender in 2-3 years just by having them develop and putting average supporting players around them.

        Williams was awesome in the tournament and showed good range. But will he be even as good as Beasley in the NBA? I dunno.

        1. Williams was awesome in the tournament and showed good range. But will he be even as good as Beasley in the NBA? I dunno.

          That's where it seems like fool's gold for the Wolves to chase after Williams. I'm not saying Love+Rubio+filler makes you a champion, but if Williams is reasonably likely to not be as good as Beasley, then it seems it would be ideal (though perhaps not possible) to trade the #2 for two lower picks. If no one is a sure thing anyway, better to have two lottery tickets than one, and later in the draft they can probably find players of similar talent at different positions so that they will fit the roster better.

          The rub is that if that logic is correct, then the teams with the lower picks aren't going to want the #2 that badly, so the Wolves won't be able to trade down for two lower picks. (Or a young player with upside and a lower pick.) They have a lot of holes, and while they could use an elite, KG-level player to lead the team, there doesn't appear to be any of those in this draft.*

          *This seems to be the false hope of trying to build around the draft. Sure, there could be someone great there, but draft quality varies from year to year, especially at the top. I would argue that trading the #1 and #2 picks in the '11 draft together for the #3 pick in the '03 draft might not even be fair to the team holding the #3 pick in the '03 draft.

          1. Someone has fallen in love with Irving/Williams/Kanter enough to trade up to the number two spot, I'm sure of it. With the nature of the game and the windows that many gm's have to operate in, there will always be someone willing to trade up.

            1. Sure, but you never know what those guys are going to offer, either. They might want to trade future draft picks for this year's #2, or something equally as worthless to the Wolves in their current situation.

                1. frustrated that Kahn isn't offering to give away the store?

                  I hate that crap. If the guy doesn't want to trade, you haven't made a good enough offer.

    1. Not sure why Selig is the one who gets his ire here. I mean, it's not like it's Seligula hunched over writing out the schedules. I suppose I'd never pass up a swipe at Selig, though.

      1. Obviously Selig had no idea what he was doing when MLB expanded NL to 16 teams in 1998. MLB was experimenting year to year. No wonder MLB is so confused now trying to fix the mess.

        I took that more in the spirit of "In his zeal to add more teams/markets to MLB, Selig opened a can of worms by unbalancing the number of teams in each league."

    2. 1. As a fan of the unbalanced schedule: It's a feature, not a bug.
      The NFL's sanitized, predetermined schedule is annoyingly sterile. If they're still playing 16 games in 2020 and don't have any disruptions to the plan, I can tell you what teams the Vikings will play in 2020, with 100% accuracy on 14 of those games, and 25% accuracy on the other two games.

      2. Well, of course he picked an NL central team. 6 teams makes it harder, they can't play about 18 games against each team in their division without enough to play the rest of the league. An AL West team would show the same variation (needing more intradivision and extradivision games to fill our 162 games), but any team from a five-team division would be much more consistent. For a non-West AL team:

      4 divisional opponents, 18 games each
      5 non-west divisional opponents, 6 games each against three, 9 games each against the other two. (Which two will it be?)
      4 AL west opponents, 9 games each.
      6 Interleague series (against 5 or 6 opponents), 3 games each. (The non-rival NL teams seems to be a bit random, too.)

      For a non-central division NL team, the calculation is similar, but play the 4 NLC teams just four times each, and 12 NL teams only play 5 Interleague series in a year, so move one of those 3-game series to the non-Central non-divisional opponenets.

  3. I had an interesting encounter last night in Brockport, NY.

    Met a chick at the bar who was obsessed with Death Cab to the point where she had lyrics tatood on her back. Whatever. But then, in Cooperstown, she met Zooey, got the tattoo signed, and then tatood that.

    1. /Checks my cousins facebook page who goes to Brockport/

      Nope, she likes Taylor Swift.

    1. I'll bet the Brown and Goldman families really appreciate Oprah leveraging that for ratings on her new network. If the report is true, I think at this point it says more about her than OJ.

        1. How many people out there seriously believe* that he didn't do it? It's become a national punchline, renewed every time he stated he was out to find his ex-wife's killer. I've been waiting for people to suggest OJ is a vampire because obviously that's the only way he can't see himself in a mirror.

          Do those families need OJ parading himself on television? Oprah's showing them absolutely no respect. I'd rather nobody ever gave that guy one more headline in his life.

          * I mean seriously, in the depth of their heart, believe OJ Simpson is innocent. Not those who will cynically ignore their belief he's guilty to posture on political issues, or those who might think he was set up because of other tragic events during the 1990s.

          1. I'm sure everyone "knew," but I feel like a relative of Nicole's wouldn't be satisfied until the confession came from his lips. It's hard to put myself in this situation, fortunately.

    1. Best of luck, Dicta, and the rest of those going through this right now.

    2. Mrs. Hayes' family was flooded out of their house in Chicagoland about fifteen years ago. Meanwhile, I grew up on a sandy island in the largest river on the continent and never really worried about flooding.

      My thoughts are with those whose lives are forever altered by this disaster.

  4. An ugly lineup today. I knew Mauer wouldn't be in there but I'm not sure why Tolbert is in for Nishi. Rivera is back in there, so I think that could mean that Butera will be the one sent down to make room for Thome.

    1. Well, Twitter warned me that the picture of the lineup might be something I consider offensive.

      1. Maybe, but I think how Rivera has handled Liriano has helped elevate his status. Rivera has started five of the last six non-Mauer games.

  5. The joys of adulthood: playing phone tag with various agencies trying to figure out the responsible way to dispose of the old paint somebody left in your front garden.

        1. is it oil or latex?

          I would think with latex, you could just let it dry for a few days, then put it in the garbage.

          Out here, the Dump has regular, free Household Hazardous Waste dropoff days.

          1. When reading the beginning of this as a standalone comment on the sidebar, it's obvious my mind resides in the gutter.

          2. It's latex paint. I could put it in the garbage after it's dry, but I don't want to send latex to the landfill or wherever it would be going if at all possible. Somebody obviously needed an adult to handle the disposal of this stuff, so I'm going to do it as responsibly as I can.

            1. Funny. I said something similar to Dr. Chop yesterday about the state of our house. I'm more than a little disappointed that people suck at being responsible.

    1. Huh. I wouldn't have even thought to do that. I'd have just put it in the basement.

    1. Yep, I'm always surprised when athletes have them. Cuddyer mentioned that Punto never started one for that very reason.

      Cuddyer, for anyone who might not know, is as likable on Twitter as he is in the press. He constantly answers fan questions and is positive at all times. He's often frustrated me as a fan but as a dude I can't imagine someone being much nicer.

    1. I get the sense it will be a boring night - picking Williams and then someone decent at #20. Which is not necessarily a bad thing.

    2. I'm glad they didn't get cute there...but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop.

        1. I think awhile back I heard someone suggest the Wolves play Love at the 5 and Williams at the 4 if they drafted him. I thought it was quite an intriguing thought.

          1. It could work. Would it look like this?

            Rubio
            Johnson
            Beasley
            Williams
            KLove

            Didn't we sign Darko up for like 4 years?

            1. Maybe it was Williams at the 3 and Beasley at the 4, but yeah, that's pretty much it.

              Darko gets into foul trouble like crazy anyway, so he doesn't play much more than backup minutes anyway.

          2. HoopsHype lists Williams' two closest comps as David West and Super Cool Beas.

            Super Cool was a better college player than Williams, but Williams has better "lennnth", as Hubie might say. So more upside??

            1. If only Beasley wasn't such a space cadet (and played more D - but then they say Williams doesn't play much either). Still, I think B's got more upside.

              1. I would think he'd be less spacey at the 4, if memory of playing basketball in jr. high serves me correctly. Fewer decisions to make.

              2. after 3 years of NBA time for Super Cool, you still think he's got that much upside? My read is that he's a volume shooter with average production at the 3/4.

                Williams averaged 19.5 ppg this year on only 10 FGA/g.

                Beasley took 17.5 FGA/g in his one season of college ball and has averaged 17+ attempts per 36 minutes in the pros. The dude likes to shoot and doesn't really get to the line all that much (4.1 FTA/36 minutes, which is decent, not great).

                1. My only problem with him was the turnovers, but I think that and all those shots may have had a lot to do with having a shitty point guard all season. I know he's gonna shoot a load, but I'm hoping with a more facilitating type PG, those will be better shots and go in at a higher percentage.

                  Maybe its just optimism or a side effect of not being able to watch them much, though.

        2. He's a smart guy.

          And thus, the anti-Beas. SCB is still a huge fan of cartoons and Skittles. Take from that what you will.

  6. Terrific, thanks Stuart Scott. I was very concerned with what Jon Gruden felt about Williams's tight end abilities. F'in 4ltr.

        1. That nearly made my beer come out my nose.

          I hope Kanter somehow makes me forget about Kosta Koufos.

          1. I think there may be a big run on Turkish Delight in Salt Lake City this season. Okur AND Kanter, the Turkish Twin Towers!!!

  7. I don't know anything about Thompson. Come to think of it, I don't know much about a lot of the majority of the lottery picks this year (other than Williams & Irving).

    1. neither does Chad Ford, apparently. On Thompson: "He's a good athlete." That's all you got???

  8. I knew he wouldn't slide to 20, but I was still hoping somehow we could've got Bismack.

    1. Me too. In all sports, a fantastic defensive player is more exciting to me than a great offensive player... maybe because they seem more rare.

  9. Sactown traded down. What are they getting for their troubles? Kawhi Leonard and...?

      1. Better than taking him at #2, but I got no room for rooting for Jimmer Fredette and his stupid square chin.

              1. After they showed that contract, or declaration, or whatever it is, I want him to fail.

          1. Well, now you'll get to see him up close and personal.

            I'm not listening anymore and so have no idea what is really going on.

  10. wait, whaaat? Now the 4ltr has taken the Sac/Charlotte trade off the board. Sac took Biyombo? How does that make sense with Brandon Knight on the board???

  11. HoopsHype on Tristan Thompson:

    A little bit undersized for the power forward spot, but makes up for it thanks to his wingspan and athleticism. Great shot blocker. Must refine his offensive game. Post skills and jump shot are not there yet.

    Comp: Charles Smith.

    Good lord.

  12. Damn. The Bucks took Jimmer. Is Don Nelson coming back to coach them or something? They could probably pick up Les Jepsen and a few other slow white guys to fill out the roster.

  13. Ok, the 4ltr has "proposed trade" back up, a 3-way with Charlotte and Milwaukee. WTF? Jimmer? Really, Geoff? Really?

    I saw something flash about a trade involving Beno Udrih going to Charlotte. Exchanging your only decent distributor for a short rookie PG/shooter?

    I know the Sac guys (Petrie and Westphal) were all a-titter about Jimmer after his workout. But this still seems optimistic, unless they are getting at least another top-15 guy.

    1. I thought Udrih already went to the Bucks this afternoon. The Kings got John Salmons.

      Ah yes, they got #10 in that deal, too. Which is Jimmer.

    2. Here's what the 4Ltr says:

      Bucks get Stephen Jackson, Shaun Livingston, Beno Udrih and the 19th pick.
      Kings get John Salmons and the 10th pick.
      Bobcats get Corey Maggette and the 7th pick.

      Now why would the Kings want Salmons back? He's a good player, but they unloaded him once already. John Salmons and the 10th pick (Jimmer) for Udrih and the 7th pick? Hmmm.

      so that means:
      ?? (maybe Dalembert)
      Cousins
      Salmons
      Thornton
      Evans

      as the starting five, and Jimmer replaces Udrih as the first guard off the bench. This does not improve their ball movement much, although Salmons is an upgrade at the 3 over Francisco Garcia and Omri Casspi.

  14. Suns should take Leonard. A bigger, stronger Dan Majerle. He can learn to shoot the spot-up three.

  15. good lord. The Morris Twins went back-to-back.

    I'm out. somebody summarize later.

    1. I feel a little cheated that the Nets weren't the team to take the other half. The two teams could have started a trend!

    1. Who the heck is even left? College basketball was so bad this year that I have no idea about any of the players.

      1. I followed the "debate" at Canis Hoopus fairly closely that last few weeks. But the guys who seem like good value and fit at #20 have been taken. Faried is an insane rebounder, which transfers very well to the pros, but do we need him with Love?

    1. Dude's got the same initials as Darko, and he's from the same country as the legendary Arvydas Sabonis. Those both have to be good signs, right?

    2. Seems like decent value but not very exciting for a team that needs better wing play.

    1. If it was the Brad Miller from a decade ago, I'd be excited. Now, I'm just happy to be rid of Flynn. Dumbest T-Woof pick ever.

        1. HOU gave up that future first, so I'm thinking McHale has more decision making than anyone was led to believe.

      1. I had to log back on to basically share this exact same sentiment. So long, Johnny Flynn, it was not fun.

      2. Whoa. Dumbest pick ever? The competition is stiff. But, Flynn right after Rubio with Curry on the board? That's a bad one.

      1. Really? Guess I was wrong with my prediction of a boring night for the Wolves.

    1. He sounds decent. Also, he's my height and weight (though I assume our body fat percentages are not in the same league).

    1. Gotta give props to Kahn for saving $ tonight. Keep our #2 and don't add any more young players to a squad that overflows with youth already.

      1. Apparently they were considering drafting the kid they took at 43 with the 20. I (someone with very limited basketball knowledge) think this was a pretty great draft for Kahn, but the media will mock them for it tomorrow. Oh well.

        1. I agree. They didn't screw up #2, made some money, and got a player they really liked without handing him a guaranteed contract. I'll take a night like tonight over a pick like Flynn or Wes Johnson.

          1. on the other hand, if they seriously were considering a guy at 20 whom they eventually got at 43, you might want to question their talent evaluating skills.

            1. At what point does the talent tend to flatten out and differences in pick largely have to do with preferences and where your scouts spent their limited time? It always seems like a tricky business trying to draft a player where you think he'll end up rather than where you think he deserves to be drafted. If you wait, you might get better overall value, but you may also miss out on your man, and your ability to know how other teams value particular players is pretty limited.

              1. I suppose you could say that the talent/potential gradient flattens out somewhere in the teens, just looking at the track record of success for players taken after the lottery.

                My point was merely that the teams' evaluations of prospects should converge toward one another's because they are all working off of the same, public information. Having 2/3ds of the league pass on a guy that you thought was worth the 20th pick seems like a signal of sorts that your evaluation is pretty far out of line.

                  1. I am probably coming at this from the wrong perspective, the baseball perspective, which is meaningfully different in that baseball draft picks cannot be traded. If you feel you can get a guy a little later in the draft, but not much later, you can move down in the NBA or NFL draft, but you can't in the MLB draft, so it seems as though you have to go more by what you have on your board and less with where you feel other teams have a guy rated.

                    I guess I don't know how much we should really expect the scouting evaluations to converge. We know factually that on particular players good, veteran scouts can have huge differences of opinion on where they ought to be picked. And 20 teams isn't all that many to make things even out when they all have different positional needs, scouts, etc.

    1. According to the posters at Canis Hoopus, he is either the guy who directed The Cell or the guide who led Edmund Hillary up Everest. I look forward to the "Targuay at the Target" promotions...

  16. A little bit of good news following the game:

    Twins OF Denard Span(notes) (concussion) may start hitting again when the team arrives in Milwaukee.

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