71 thoughts on “November 17, 2014: So Who Are You?”

  2. Busy weekend at Chez Hayes. First snowfall (first shovelling - not enough to blow), and replaced a leaky old faucet in the main bathroom on Sunday afternoon. My first-ever solo plumbing job - I hope all of them go as easily as this one. No leaks on the first time I put it all together! Also got our Christmas cards ordered last night, which saved us 50% by doing it early. Mrs. Hayes knocked out a ton of errands and house chores, and she made some awesome chili, too. If you've got access to Cook's Illustrated, their recipe is a great basic chili to improvise on and add to according to your tastes. If you don't have access to Cook's Illustrated, you might want to consider putting their cookbook on your wishlist. Your stomach and tastebuds will thank you.

  3. Between getting gas on my way home last night and walking into the building for work today I've already exhausted the patience I have for winter weather. I am totally over this already.

    1. I went for a long walk through my local park on the Mississippi River and tallied my 150th species of bird for the year in my "neighborhood".
      I haven't worked up the exact #, but that probably puts me at 165 or so species in MN for the year and 185 for all locations (MN + Vancouver).
      Still looking for a Shrike for this year, hoping for a few wintery finch species.

      Walks in the winter almost always means the kids would stay in and watch a movie or just be sledding in the yard.

        1. Couple weeks back, I remember hearing most (but not all) of what I remember as the White-Throated Sparrow from the Boundary Waters. Wonder if they have an Eastern cousin with a different fall call-song...

          1. Regional variation?
            So-called "dawn song" (young males working their way to the song)? That might be likely in the fall.
            In Sparrows (and many families of Passerines), songs are learned (not instinctual*), and there's actually a lot of variation between individuals as well.

            The closest-related species of sparrow you could find in CT would be the White-Crowned, which starts whistley like a White-Throat, but then has some trills or buzzes, like, say, a Goldfinch or Song Sparrow.

    2. For me, winter is permitted to remain through Christmas, and to shortly after the new year. Longer, and then it has overstayed its welcome.

    3. I wore a sweater for the first time since March today. I much prefer seasons that require adding a layer for comfort to sweating because I can't take another layer off.

      Next year I'll need a new winter coat, though. The quilted lining of my field jacket, which I bought seven or eight years ago now, has seen better days. I'm trying to decide between a new Navy-issue peacoat (I have my grandpa's from his Navy days in the 1950s, but it sadly no longer fits) or a duffel coat (toggles!).

      1. I loathe the day I have to get a new coat. This will be my Columbia's 14th winter and its still going strong. Hopefully it keeps up the good work.

        1. I turned the furnace on this morning. The wife complained and turned the heat off. I mean, it was ONLY 62 in the downstairs.

        2. I don't need a new per se, but I'm keeping an eye out in the thrift stores for something along these lines to go with my boots and hat.

          PS- I love Tim Riggins

      3. Stanton can opt out of this deal in five years, at which point he'll have just turned 30. The odds have to be well better than even on him opting out, especially considering he just signed a long-term deal with the Marlins.

        1. 6.1 fWAR last year. If he averages at least close to that, it's all but guaranteed he will opt out. I think even if he doesn't stand to cash in, opting out might be smart as it may be his only chance to be a free agent. With a no-trade clause he has considerable say over where he goes but that's not the same as being a free agent.

          1. BabyJ: 4 HRs per season, $23 million per season
            Stanton: 4 HRs per month, $23 million per season

            I rest my stribber case.

  6. Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino ·
    With Russell Martin reportedly getting $82 million/5 years from #BlueJays, Kurt Suzuki at $12M over 2 yrs (w/opt) seems like a bargain, no?

      1. Jeff Sullivan:

        Based on market rates, for $82 million, the Jays are paying Martin to be worth something on the order of 10 – 11 wins. Historically, for catchers between the ages of 29 – 31, Martin’s been around the 85th percentile. For those catchers over the next five years, through age 36, the 85th percentile has been worth about 10 – 11 wins. It’s simple, but it works. If you prefer something Martin-specific, let’s begin with his 3.8-WAR projection for next season. Dock him six-tenths of a win each year, and in the end he’d have been worth 13 wins. Dock him 0.75 wins each year, and in the end he’d have been worth 11.5 wins. Pitch-framing value isn’t included, here. It appears the Jays have committed to a reasonable contract. No reason to think this is a huge mistake; no reason to think this is a huge awesome deal for the team. It falls within 10% or so of a good idea for both sides, and that’s the most that can be said about that.

        Suzuki's 2.0 fWAR, on the other hand, provided value just about double his salary this year. So not an unreasonable tweet.

        1. The last time Suzuki posted at least 2.0 fWAR was 2011. I'm not holding my breath thinking he will repeat that again next season. If he repeats last year, that'd be great. If he's closer to one win, that's money the Twins could have simply spent elsewhere and let Pinto catch for pennies on the dollar. Suzuki seems much more likely to regress at the plate and continue to be mediocre or worse with the glove than Martin does based on track record.

          At this point the Twins have been pretty clear that Terry Ryan hasn't used all the payroll capacity he has had the last few seasons. Instead, TR has paid decent money for value he should be able to get from a guy already on his roster. Even if the Twins got value back on Suzuki's performance, that's a pretty inefficient use of resources.

          1. I misspoke. Suzuki's 2.0 fWAR generated enough value to cover both his 2014 salary and his 2015 salary, and then some. That was kind of my point. Not a defense of the new contract, per se.

            Was it the best use of resources by GMTR? Probably not, as you stated. The fact that he produced so much excess value in 2014 hardly justifies over-spending in 2015-16 on him.

            Will the contract bite them in the butt? Probably a little. Steamer projects him as a +1.2 fWAR player for 2015 in his age-31 season. He'd need to do that to cover his contract. As Brandon Warne reminds us, he was not very good at the plate in August or September.

            Suzuki hit .309/.365/.396 before the break, and just .253/.313/.362 after it. That’s right, almost the same as the .253/.309/.375 line he had coming into the season.

            If we get the 2014 version averaged over the season in 2015, we will be very happy. If we get the post-AS break Suzuki in 2015, we won't be surprised. And GMTR will have substantially over-paid.

    1. One year of Heyward + compensation pick if he doesn't take the qualifying offer isn't really fleecing, is it?

        1. He's one of the best outfielders in the game. His three year UZR/150 average ( 3350+ innings) is 21.6. B-ref had his defense worth 2.8 rWAR alone last season. No matter which metric you prefer, he was pretty awesome: 6.8 rWAR, 5.1 fWAR.

          Miller found himself headed the wrong direction in 2014 after being held out of the playoffs last year. His K% dropped preciptiously - down from 23.4% in 2013 to 16.6% this year - while his BB% climbed from 7.9% to 9.6%. (If you prefer K/9 & BB/9 that's 8.78 K/9 to 6.25 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 to 3.59 BB/9.) His FIP jumped accordingly: from 3.67 to 4.54.

          Jenkins is a former No. 1 (2010) but has seen his K% drop at each level. He was at 13.3% (or 4.99 K/9) as a 22 year old at High-A this season. Not exactly a recipe for success.

          Plus, the Cards got Jordan Walden.

          1. Gleeman: In fact, during the past three seasons the only outfielders with more Wins Above Replacement than Heyward are Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, and Alex Gordon.

            THAT Carlos Gomez? Yes, sigh.

          2. But only a single year of Heyward. Even extending him is going to require a large fraction of Stanton money. The Cards are selling later for now

            1. The Cards really need a RFer, what with Taveras's untimely and stupid death. Randal Grichuk might be the answer, but then again, he might not.

                1. So, really two outfielders. Even if Taveras were alive the Cardinals might have been in on Heyward next year anyway with Holliday a free agent and Craig in Boston. This probably makes them a favorite to sign Heyward, either to an extension or to keep him in free agency.

        2. Jason Heyward? He's BabyJ (Lite?), without the contract.

          271/351/384 Heyward 2014 in 649 PA (11 HR, 98:67 K:BB)
          254/349/427 Heyward 2013 in 440 PA (14 HR, 73:48)
          277/361/371 JoeMauer 2014 in 518 PA (4 HR, 96:60)
          324/404/476 JoeMauer 2013 in 508 PA (11 HR, 89:61)

          1. I'd love to know if Mauer were able to play outfield with 1.5-2.0 defensive WAR value. He'd still be a perennial All-Star if he could.

    3. The genius of the Cardinals trading a young starting power pitcher for a young corner outfielder, who's a former first-round pick and he's only 24 with undoubtable talent. How could that possibly go wrong?

      1. Jason Heyward's worst season is better than Delmon's best. Heyward wanted to stick around, they didn't offer him an extension. He's a local kid. It's not like the Braves are lacking in pitching, either. This is a move done to save payroll. It's a move that will drive fans away. I really can't understand it in any circumstance.

        2. Delmon's career rWAR matches Heyward's rWAR in his single, worst season. They aren't in any way comparable except in the broadest of senses.

      2. I recognize the fact that Hayward is much better than DY. It was basically a joke. But I do remember a storyline coming out of that, that some were complaining about the trade not because the Twins didn't get equal value back but because they were trading starting pitching for a corner outfielder, which is exactly what the Cardinals are being praised for.

          1. I think I saw it.
            Mentioning age and "talent" that cannot be denied is never a serious statement hereabouts.

    1. Yeah, but just to move him to Des Moines. No one is going to pick up a injured, battling MS goalie.

  9. You know what we need? An update on the ratio of on-field seizures and B1G wins. C'mon Souhan!

    'Spoiler' SelectShow

      1. NDSU actually lost a game. Came out flat; got beat up. Over last three plus seasons, they've fallen to 53-3. Dispiriting, really.

        Also, NDSU is 28-3 in the Conference over that stretch. The Missouri Valley conference is far and away the best FCS conference in the country, ranked higher than three FBS conferences. The conference was 23-1 against non-conference FCS games this year, with the lone loss being South Dakota losing by eight points at Montana. South Dakota is winless in the league and Montana is #13 in the country.

    2. Normally, I would say that the Gophers don't stand much of a chance against Nebraska with Leidner providing absolutely no reason to honor the pass. On the other hand, Wisconsin can't pass either and the Huskers allowed Gordon to run for approximately 1,000,000,000 yards, so the Gophers stand a decent chance. Coach Kill can do for the Huskers what the Old Ball Coach did for his alma mater last week and deliver the killshot on the coach.

      1. Nebraska is a very winnable game, especially is Abdullah is still hurt. The Huskers QB play is about as quality as the Gophers.

  11. Some interesting data visualizations on U.S. agriculture and the California drought here. As of 2012, California produced 90+ percent of the following products (at least): almonds, broccoli, grapes, pistachios, strawberries, tomatoes, and walnuts. And 74 percent of the lettuce.

    1. I'm no expert on the politics of mental health/illness on the macro level, and I also am not on expert on what happens in other states. But I can confidently say that America as a whole undertreats people with the most dangerous mental illnesses. While hospitals (see: sanitariums) were used indiscriminately and sometimes inhumanely for a very long time, in the 60's and 70's there was a big push to get these people living independently in the community. Some people never belonged in a hospital in the first place and did okay in the community with minimal to moderate monitoring. Some still needed heavy monitoring, but were perfectly okay for group homes or intensive management from a mobile hospital (ACT Team). And some people never should have been released. Now there is a severe shortage of state hospitals (not to mention psychiatrists) and even in Minnesota, one of the most heavily funded states in the nation for mental health, I have far too often seen clients released from the hospital way, way too soon because doctors are under tremendous pressure to end treatment by the insurance companies.

      In addition to pressure from insurance, there is stigma about mental health hospitalizations and commitments, and many doctors fear restraining clients, both physically and psychiatrically. Yes, some clients end up overmedicated for various reasons, and that's a shame. But some are undermedicated because the law discourages use of commitment, at least long-term. I have a client with paranoid schizophrenia, while not violent or dangerous, is at severe risk to herself because when she becomes paranoid, she harasses people with her delusions and is at risk to be hurt or, at best, get evicted and wind up homeless. She does very, very well when she is taking medications. But she has almost no insight into her illness and every time her commitment ends, she goes off her drugs immediately. She then slowly decompensates until the police are called and she winds up back in the hospital. On one hand, we hold out hope that someday she'll gain insight into her mental health and not need commitment to take her medications. On the other, are we doing her an injustice by letting her go through this awful cycle time and time again because of that hope? Her quality of life is 100%, no-doubt about it, easily proven to be better when taking her medications. So by letting her make her own choices, are we doing right by her?

      It's tough. The author's comments are perhaps a little stronger than I would assert in some areas, but it's true that there is very little national attention to the really, really dangerous people (to themselves or others). And way too many of them are in prisons, where treatment is pathetic.

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