They've gone and done something haven't they?
Wild had a whole bunch of deals this week, and I think they pretty much all point to what Bill Guerin thinks the team needs to contend.
- Nico Sturm for Tyson Jost
Well, so much for the Whangdoodle-crush on Nico Sturm. Sturm was the kind of player that was easy to like, direct and fast and a very no-frills kind of game. The kind of player that has value on the fourth line, and scores just enough for you to wonder if maybe he could be good enough for second line minutes? But no, he isn't. And the Wild weren't going to resign him after this year when they have Dewar and Duhaime that play almost exactly this role. Getting something for Sturm before he walks is good business.
Sturm was third among Wild forwards in time-on-ice shorthanded this season, where he was slightly below replacement level according to Evolving Hockey's GAR model. This is a theme we'll come back to.
Tyson Jost is pretty similar to Sturm except he's got a longer track record and he's under contract through the next season. Comparing their GAR defensive numbers over the past four years drives home that this trade was switching out players in the same role more or less.
| Player | Minutes | Even Strength dGAR | SH Minutes | Shorthanded dGAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm 2018-2021 | 638 | +3.1 | 65 | +1.9 |
| Sturm 2021-2022 | 627 | -0.9 | 90 | -0.4 |
| Jost 2018-2021 | 2527 | +3.7 | 128 | +0.2 |
| Jost 2021-2022 | 780 | -0.2 | 112 | -3.5 |
- 2023 3rd round pick for Nicolas Deslauriers
I mean, OK? Deslauriers isn't a great player as far as creating offense, but he's been a consistently adequate defensive forward who is willing to punch people when called upon. In the last four seasons he has contributed -0.4 defGAR and a -5.3 offGAR.
He's seen some penalty kill time on the Ducks this year, and been an adequate defender there.
- Kaapo Kahkonen and a 5th round pick for Jacob Middleton
Minnesota had a surplus goalie (more on that in a minute) and Kahkonen was going to need a new contract after this season. I'm not a believer that Kahkonen was ever going to be a starting caliber goalie, but he has shown that he could fill in capably sometimes, and has actually outperformed Talbot this year in limited chances. Still, I think it's understandable that the Wild decided to move on from Kahkonen and look elsewhere for backup help next season.
Jacob Middleton is in his first year of consistent playing time and has acquitted himself pretty well. He has solid defensive numbers and the underlying numbers on offense look respectable (although the results so far haven't matched the analytics). He'll be an RFA next year, and should probably be a cheaper option than Goligoski if the Wild need to fill more spaces on the blue line.
I probably like Middleton the best of any of the skaters that the Wild acquired this week. Once again, he has played the penalty kill consistently, and has good numbers and results there.
- Jack McBain for a 2022 second round pick (from Vancouver)
Vancouver should pick somewhere in the middle of the second round, and McBain said he wouldn't sign in Minnesota, so this is a good get for the front office. I don't think that McBain is going to be a star in the NHL, but could become a third/fourth line player and contribute.
- 2022 Conditional 1st-round pick for Marc-Andre Fleury (50% salary retained by Chicago)
Here's the big one. Fleury hasn't had a great year and even if you adjust for the defense in front of him, it doesn't look anything like his truly spectacular season last year. Still, if the goal is to take a swing at a deep playoff run this year (which seems pretty reasonable for the Wild) then you absolutely add Fleury if you can get him.
How Talbot and Fleury share time is a question. Whether Fleury can improve to anything close to what he did last year in Minnesota's system is a question.
What's not a question is whether Guerin is pushing in on success this year. Adding Fleury is as much a signal as anything else. This is a year where Minnesota is going for it. Coming into the final 20 or so games of the season the team has been consistently good on the offensive side of the puck.
There have been a couple of swoons in their defense at 5 on 5, that you can see on the graph below that charts the team's even strength expected goals for and against.
But more recently, two problems have become obvious.
1. Penalty Killing
Woof, that got ugly right around game 30 and really hasn't gotten any better since then (the median penalty GA/60 in the NHL is 7.45).
2. Goaltending
The league median save percentage at 5 on 5 is .919, a number the Wild tandem hasn't topped in a five-game sample in the last month and a half.
And so Bill Guerin set out to address these two issues. Deslauriers, Middleton, Jost all have some experience as penalty killers. (Jost's numbers this year are a little suspect, but has a better track record). League-average goaltending doesn't seem like an unreasonable expectation from Fleury going forward. It will be pretty easy to assess these moves at the end of the year and see if they had the intended effect, because the intended effect is so clear.
Credit where it's due to the Wild front office, they identified the problem and tried to address it, now there's 20 games to see whether it worked.
yay, the W(O)WW is here!
Victor Rask traded to Seattle for absolutely nothing.
I’m guessing salary relief on 50% of 22 games is about $500k.
Pretty much exactly. CapFriendly has it at $487K. Very much just a favor, seeing if Rask could find a chance to play at NHL level in Seattle.
6 total trades:
Deslauriers from Duhaime and Jost to make it 1-0.
New guys contributing immediately!
What was with McBain's "won't sign with the wild" approach? I feel like I read about this type of thing more frequently in hockey than other sports. Draft picks not signing and so on and so forth...
I heard it was simply that he wanted to play and play now in the pros and he’d have a hard time cracking the Wild’s
lineup. No such issues with AZ.
Yep, what free said.
Also, McBain is nowhere near the prospect that Boldy/Rossi are and he saw Boldy spend 25 games in the AHL and Rossi even more than that. The Wild philosophy on development didn't seem to fit the "I want to go straight to the NHL" goal very well at all.
Just realized that Fleury was also a first overall draft pick.
Minnesota acquired a first overall pick in both the NHL and MLB this week!
Wild sign Vlad Firstov (their 2nd round pick in 2019) to his entry-level contract. He skips his senior college year and will play in Iowa for the rest of this year.
Hard to evaluate college players right now due to pandemic inconsistencies in schedules and games, but he can score and will definitely need some development in the AHL before he is in the picture for Minnesota.
Hope he makes it. Lots of possibilities with "Vlad".
Wild absolutely dominated the game against Columbus only to eke out a 3-2 overtime win.
I was at the game. The company that built our patio took us to the game. Turned out great that it was the flower's first game in goal for the Wild. This team is just plain fun to watch. The second period was a bit sloppy, but yes, we dominated the first and third periods. The goalie for Columbus is not that great, but he has looked like an all star the past 2 match ups against the Wild.
Wild Magic Number Watch
With 18 games to go, the Wild have a magic number of 21 points over both Vegas and Winnipeg to clinch a playoff spot.
The magic number is 32 (St. Louis) to clinch home ice in the first round.
My amazing wife got tickets to last nights game through work - treated me for my birthday. What an awesome experience. Three couples shared 6 seats in the lower level, west end corner of the ice: four in row 8 and two in row 1 … right on the glass. We had the front row in the 2nd period and got to see the Thrill break the 0-0 stalemate up close and personal. To see them get back into it and then the OT game winner!!!?! Undeniably the best hockey game I’ve ever been to. We’re just above the Wild logo on the boards in the corner.
https://www.nhl.com/video/kaprizov-strikes-first-with-ppg/t-332025256/c-11120395
that's a cool idea to rotate through the rinkside seats.
I can’t claim credit for the idea, but yeah, it was a really cool way to attend.
Wild extend Alex Goligoski for 2 years at $2M per year.
I'll admit that I don't see how this helps them.
Plus apparently a no trade clause for Goligoski. I really hope they are able to re-sign Fiala, but maybe they've been given word he wants a big payday and are going to let him walk . Also I can't see how they keep Dumba next year given the cap space.
Salary Cap Calculations!
To make the roster happen without trades, the Wild have 7.3M in cap space to sign Fiala, Dewar, Middleton and a backup goalie.
Fiala + Dewar + Middleton + Kahkonen this year had cap hits of 7.4M combined.
From Russo at The Athletic (emphasis mine) -
https://twitter.com/WWhangdoodle/status/1484509345257820163
Wait, you run the Whangdoodle account?
The way I wrote this LTE makes it look like Russo quoted my tweet.
I was quoting my tweet in response to Russo's point.
it's hard to figure out what Guerin's plan is
It's going to be fascinating to see what rabbits he pulls out of his hat this off-season. One reason I think they are "going all in" this year.
Trade chips:
- Dumba (6M in cap space, 10 team no-trade list)
- Fiala (5.1M in cap space this year, more next year?)
- Talbot (3.67M)
- Foligno (3.1M)
- Greenway (3M)
- Kulikov (2.25M, 8 team no-trade list)
- Jost (2M)
I don't see them trading Dumba, Foligno, or Greenway. Trading Talbot creates a hole that would probably be more expensive to fill (Fleury's willingness to take less to stay in MN is a question)
Trading Kulikov makes some sense, just not sure that clears enough cap space to cover more than a minimal raise for one year of Fiala.
I think Guerin is making his call between Fiala's next contract vs. Boldy's next contract (he's an RFA after next season). They just can't do both.
Relevant stats:
Fiala 82-game pace on the Wild.
19-20: 27 goals, 64 pts
20-21: 29 goals, 59 pts
21-22: 29 goals, 76 pts
Boldy 82-game pace.
21-22: 28 goals, 59 points
Hard to argue with the choice to bet on Boldy when he's more or less matching Fiala's production as a rookie.
Fiala has definitely benefited from being on the same line as Boldy and probably vice versa as well. Boldy is probably good enough he'll thrive with whomever he's paired with but will be interesting to see, especially if Fiala can't be signed for next year.
Dom Luszczyszyn takes on the Wild's efficiency with the goalie pulled:
Trade Talbot!!
Zuccarello / Kaprizov supercut? Yes, please!