The NHL has followed the NBA's act; though it was just six games, they made the most of them as the Blackhawks scored twice in the last 76 seconds last night to win the Cup. Will the MLB follow suit and keep the ball rolling in a few months? They'd better.
96 thoughts on “June 25, 2013: Memorable Series”
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So, the Eastern Conference Champs only did one game better than the MN Wild against the Blackhawks.
/MoralVictories
Chicago was the best team all year long and they win the Stanley Cup. Good.
Agree with both AMR and SBG. Chicago had a spectacular (shortened) season, and backed that up with an excellent post-season, aside from getting down 3-1 to Detroit in round 2.
Those finals were really good, tight games, two fantastic teams that both were able to impose their game plan at certain times.
In former Twin news...
Phillies remain patient with Delmon Young
High praise:
Ha! And he's only what, like 30 years old now.
He did draw a 2-out walk last week.
Surprisingly, after looking it up, _elm_n draws most of his walks percentage wise with 2 outs. His career splits
Though unsurprisingly he's behing NL average in all situations (2013 only, so it's not an exact match with his entire career)
That's hilarious.
Here's an article about the Minneapolis Mayor's race. (I hope I'm not delving in the forbidden topic here, but it's mostly about the horse race, not about policy).
Anyway, It is my tweet that is referenced at the end of page one, where I used the hashtag #meetthenewbosssameastheoldboss.
So a hashtag referenced in an old media story. Does that improve or lower my klout score? :o)
I happen to be friends with one of the candidates, and there aren't too many people I'd recommend more heartily for any elected office. If anyone is in Minneapolis and would like some insight into the best candidate in the field, I'll happily discuss it offsite.
You can send me your information. I have a guess who it may be.
I BET I KNOW TOO. He is good friends with good friends (who now that I think about it you probably know too). I... well, kudos to him for have the balls.
E-mail me about the other friends?
I don't think I know your address. But I am nmcoleman at gmail and oh god now everybody knows ahhhhhhhh.
this is why god invented disposable email addresses. Like, say, jeebusismycatcher at teh Google mail.
this is why
godAl Gore invented disposable email addresses. Like, say, jeebusismycatcher at teh Google mail.DON'T MAKE ME GET ALL SNOPES ON YOU!!1!
yeah, whatever
So, I talked to Philo and... this is weird... he's apparently a Nigerian Prince? How has that never come up? Anyway, I sent him a bunch of money but I think it's going to work out really well.
Announce my specialsist Position with the Government of Nigeria is being something I do rarely, for only special occasion Event, with People for who I trusts to complete secured transaction accounts of Dedicated special funds from my Private account. I is made you a special best offer for £1,000,000 transfer account. Please is send me the Routing number and account # of your bank account for the Purpose of secured transmital only on the e-mail I is sent to you Earlier.
Why would you dispose of an account name like that??????
You guys do realize that my backup (read: rarely checked) email acount is ihatepunto at google's mail thingy, right?
Sure. But I prefer Nibs' backup account: sendmepicturesofcentipedes@gmail.com
My folks know a few of the candidates as well (and are supporting different ones! conflict in the New Guy Parents household!), so every time I pay them a visit I hear endless yakking about the race. I'm just thankful I declined their invitation to the DFL convention. They were there for all 12 hours of it.
bS, here's some interesting insight into Ender's Game movie from the author. Like we suspected, it's not precisely the same story, but like we knew, it couldn't be. That said, sounds like quite a bit of Ender's Shadow makes its way in as well, which makes a lot of sense.
Awesome. Thanks for the link. Melding Ender's Game and Ender's Shadow should make for a better story, I think.
Minnesota Twins' Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee Creating Dilemma for Management.
I think the smart money is on Morneau being on a steep decline:
.262/.322/.400 -- Morneau, 2011-2013
.300/.383/.530 -- Morneau, 2008-2010
.280/.350/.486 -- Morneau, career
He's 32 years old and wouldn't be the first guy with his skill set to decline at this age, plus he's had plenty of wear and tear. The only way I see him really bouncing back is if he's still injured and might heal up, but that seems unlikely.
Morneau has historically had very large platoon splits.
.294/.374/.522 -- Morneau vs. RHP
.255/.302/.420 -- Morneau vs. LHP
Parmelee's splits have been less extreme:
.258 .328 .438 -- Parmelee vs. RHP
.241 .317 .361 -- Parmelee vs. LHP
It may be a difficult situation to manage from a personal standpoint, but it could be worth exploring a Morneau/Parmelee platoon where Morneau hits mainly against RHP that he matches up well against, playing roughly 1 in 3 days, while Parmelee gets time the other 2 in 3 days. Parmelee's numbers would suffer relative to what he's capable of, but Morneau's would benefit, and overall the club could see some value from that sort of platoon.
Usually, strikeouts are a good clue a guy's skills are diminishing, but Morneau's K rate is right in line with his career rate. Also, his line-drive rate is the best of his career. The biggest red flags are his walk rate is the worst of his career. Just before the concussion, he was having a monster year and his walk rate was the best of his career. It could be he is just over anxious at the plate trying to find his power swing, or it could be he isn't able to catch up to the fastball as well and is having to cheat a little bit and so is not able to wait as long to decide if a pitch is in the strike zone or not. My guess would be a combination of the two.
according to Fangraphs, he's seeing slightly fewer fastballs this year compared to years previous, and more offspeed stuff (curves, changeups, splitters). And he's performing below average on the offspeed stuff, but at or above average on fastballs and sliders. So, while he's not performing at an elite level against the hard stuff, he's getting beat on the slow stuff. And he's swinging at the out-of-zone stuff more too. And and, he's seeing a lot more first-pitch strikes, so he's batting from behind in the count. Maybe not handling first-pitch fastballs well, then getting killed with the slow stuff?
finally, his BABIP this year is a possibly unsustainable .330, which is worrisome given his mediocre results to date.
At this point, if you're assuming he's not declining, it seems like you'd expect his BABIP to regress to .295.
I don't know that I buy the premise that increased strikeouts are really the best clue of going over the cliff. When Richie Sexson hit the wall, his strikeout rate was basically the same as his career rate. Mo Vaughn's strikeout rate at the end was unremarkable compared to the rest of his career. Jacque Jones didn't have a big spike in strikeout rate.
The problem for all those players was that their power vanished. Morneau's power is nowhere to be seen, and I feel like ISO is generally more stable than BABIP. I wouldn't want to be the guy who pays him to play baseball next year.
This, sadly.
On the bright side, he already got a big payday and he has some awards to put on his mantle. If his career ended today, he could be quite proud of what he accomplished.
I just found out that Slama was released from Rochester. As the resident Slama skeptic, I feel like I should take one last look at some of his numbers compared to relievers the Twins have used this year.
Avg FB velocity (majors)
94.5 -- Perkins (as a reliever)
92.8 -- Pressly
92.1 -- Burton
91.7 -- Fien
91.3 -- Duensing
91.3 -- Swarzak
91.2 -- Roenicke (has been as high as 94.8 in the past)
90.8 -- Slama
GS/G (minors)
149/152 -- Swarzak
101/106 -- Duensing
101/106 -- Perkins
82/109 -- Pressly
19/222 -- Burton
0/226 -- Roenicke
0/253 -- Fien
0/268 -- Slama
BB/9 (minors)
4.1 -- Slama
3.8 -- Roenicke
3.6 -- Pressly
3.4 -- Burton
3.2 -- Perkins
2.8 -- Swarzak
2.2 -- Duensing
2.1 -- Fien
I know that picking on Slama's weaknesses is not going to represent the whole package accurately, but I feel like these numbers highlight why the Twins haven't used him much in the majors. Many, if not most, major league relievers were minor league starters, because in general--as a rule--you only begin your time in the minors as a reliever if a team doesn't think you can cut it as a starter. Almost everyone's numbers improve moving from starting to relieving, so it's easier to move from the rotation to the bullpen if you're struggling in the rotation. You also don't need as many pitches to succeed as a reliever. As we see, Slama was a full-time reliever in the minors, which inflates his minor league performance relative to the starters above.
Slama also had a pretty high walk rate--nearly double Fien's minor league walk rate. This makes me wonder how many of his strikeouts in the minors came from getting weaker hitters to chase outside the strike zone--something that doesn't typically translate well from the minors to the majors.
And then there's Slama's lack of velocity. Maybe a half mile-an-hour isn't much, but when you're already on the low end of the velocity spectrum, it seems to me like it could make a difference.
I know we tend to dismiss spring training stats as the level of competition varies and the sample size is small, but consider Slama's 16.2 IP of spring training:
16.2 IP, 22 SO, 15 BB, 2 HR -- Slama, Spring Training, Career
And then his major league small sample:
7.0 IP, 8 SO, 7 BB, 1 HR -- Slama, Major Leagues, Career
And yeah, that's not a real huge sample size, but to even get down to roughly a 4.5 BB/9 rate, he'd need to pitch 22-23 innings with no walks or more innings than that at a lower walk rate than he had in the minors. It's also more concerning that the SSS basically fits what you might fear from his minor league career--low velocity relief pitcher with questionable walk rate might see walk rate explode in the majors.
It also seems unfair to say that the Twins haven't valued Slama as highly as they should have. He's been around long enough that other teams have had plenty of chances to see him, and I'm sure that anyone with that kind of strikeout rate gets attention from some level of every team's scouting operation. So up until now, the Twins have either valued Slama more highly than what other teams have been willing to trade for him, or there simply haven't been trade offers for Slama.
He’s been around long enough that other teams have had plenty of chances to see him, and I’m sure that anyone with that kind of strikeout rate gets attention from some level of every team’s scouting operation.
This is the point I think Gleeman misses. He has passed through waivers at least once and is still with the Twins. I know another team will sign him soon enough, but it's obvious that no other team thinks he's a capable reliever.
Unrelated to the Slama discussion, but of note to socal readers, Gleeman:
Where have I seen this before?
I'm all over it.
I think this is exactly what the Twins see in him. I believe I've seen either speculation from MSM writers or direct quotes from TR or BS that he isn't throwing it in the strike zone enough. Perhaps he was trying to make that adjustment this year and just got hit around because of it. This would be probably the worst organization for a guy like that to try to break into the majors.
I agree with everything you say but still wish they had given Slama 30 innings at the MLB level while they were losing 195 games the past two seasons. I don't see any downside.
I'm sort of agnostic to that proposal. If they'd tried, I could see why they tried. I can also see why they didn't try. Some of the other pitchers they did try arguably had more potential since they threw harder.
So, basketball.
NBA Mock Draft at SI has the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad at 9 and Ricky Ledo at 26.
I'd sure like to see a 2 guard that was 6-6 and could shoot, but these two characters don't sound all that good.
I kinda want Shabazz on the team just for his awesome name, but I dunno. An elite college enigma who can rack up points but doesn't do anything else... sounds like Super Cool Beasley 2.0.
He sounds like JR Rider.
a cross between JR Rider and Adam Morrison.
Oh, be still my beating heart. "solid" workouts? An obvious lottery pick!
fwiw, and it's not much, nbadraft.net is less impressed.
No thanks.
oh, and he has Tourette's. Doesn't mean that he can't be an elite athlete (see Eisenreich, Jim). But worrisome nonetheless.
Cousin of a co-worker!
Tim. F**king. Howard.
He's got Tourettes.
He guards the US nets.
He's Timmy Howard, Timmy Howard!
much better example of an elite athlete with that condition, if one holds hope that Muhammad can be a superstar in the league.
I liked Shabazz's name until I read that his dad named him that because it sounds like a famous name.
I wonder if players with flashy names are overrated in general. At lower developmental levels, it seems like it would be easier to overlook someone with a bland name and the bland namers would have a hard time landing in the right situations to reach their potential.
J.D. "Real Deal" Durbin excepted.
ESPN sees it differently:
That sounds a lot better.
I want them to draft Kentavious Caldwell-Pope just because he has an awesome name.
Ken-TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-vi-ous Caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaldweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeell Pope!
It is off the charts.
also FWIW, nbadraft.net still has teh Zeller going to the Puppies. Please, no.
I found this a bit odd in their scouting report of Zeller:
Really? He gained only 2 inches in the running jump over the standing jump? And he has outstanding athleticism????
Flip said that Zeller is a 4. We don't need him.
Hockey team should look at him to drive the Zamboni.
I've heard a lot more buzz that it will be KCP, and after watching his DX scouting video, that pleases me greatly. Shabazz would be awful and would show that nothing has changed.
If I were trying to build a franchise, I would tattoo this phrase on everyone's forehead: "What would Popovich do?"
somehow, I don't think San Antonio would draft Shabazz if they had the opportunity in Minnesota's slot.
Draft Tim Duncan? Because that's what I would have done.
I kid. Their drafting has been brilliant.
Obviously, better coaching would have gotten the T-wolves the first pick in the lottery.
Duncan was luck and some really good tanking. Parker and Ginobili were inspired picks in the late first round and second round, respectively.
I agree with all of the above. The Duncan line is true of their selection of the Admiral as well.
My point was about organizational stability, values and outlook. Look at their trade of a very nice, serviceable backup in George Hill (allegedly one of Pops favorites) in order to get the opportunity to draft Kawhi Leonard.
over the past ten years, the Spurs have done incredibly well at finding value in the draft despite low pick slots
2011: Leonard at 15 and Cory Joseph at 29
2009: DeJuan Blair and Nando de Colo in the 2nd round
2008: George Hill at 26
2007: Tiago Splitter at 28
2005: Ian Mahinmi at 28
2004: Beno Udrih at 28
2003: Leandro Barbosa at 28 (traded to Phoenix for a future 1st-round pick, which turned out to be traded in the Nazr Muhammed trade with the Knicks in 2005 -- David Lee; oops)
2002: John Salmons at 26 and Luis Scola in the 2nd round
2001: Tony Parker at 28
That's a pretty impressive decade of drafting, even if a couple of trades didn't work out so well for them.
Talking about the Spurs draft success is depressing.
For all of the (justified!) criticism that the 4ltr gets, there are certain parts of the behemoth that have value. I think that some of their .com writers
are really pretty good. SI not as good.
Author, screen writer Richar Matheson dead at 87. One of my favorite TZ writers.
Just got off the phone with a colleague who is a big Tigers fan (he's a native Michigander). We shared a laugh over _elm_n.
The NBA is a model organization in its hiring practices.
So apparently both GW and the U are recruiting a basketball player named Terance Mann. Rumor has it he lives behind the first window without a chicken.
Go the distance.
Sounds like a Boat Rocker.
If you build a new practice facility, he will come.
Presented without comment, but with the obvious implication:
12.6 fWAR, $131M -- Johan Santana, 2008-present
13.2 fWAR, $10M -- Carlos Gomez, 2008-present
10.2 fWAR with Milwaukee....
JJ Hardy: 1.2 fWAR with the Twins, traded with [redacted] for
Jim Hoey: -0.6 fWAR with the Twins
🙁
J.J. Hardy, 2011-13: 8.9 fWAR
Hardy was actually 2.3 fWAR in 2010 (1.2 was 2009, his last with the Brewers). If he'd put up his 2011+forward numbers for the Twins, that'd be 11.2 fWAR while Gomez was doing 10.2. Hardy wouldn't have been as cheap as Gomez, but he'd be more than worth his salary (I think that's about $25mil versus a value of...almost $50mil?) and that's better than what Santana's done.
I was too lazy to look up Hardy's numbers, but I have generally thought the Gomez-Hardy trade was a pretty fair deal for both sides and it looks like it's playing out that way. The Brewers were taking on a little more reaching-his-potential risk but the Twins had to pay a little more. The Twins certainly didn't get enough for Hardy when they traded him away.
I mainly think it's unfortunate that the narrative surrounding the Santana trade is that the Twins got fleeced, when in reality it was a reasonable deal from the outset. There was even some concern that the Twins needed to get Fernando Martinez for any trade with the Mets to be worthwhile, but Gomez over Martinez certainly looks like a good call these days.
People at the time didn't realize the implications of (or willfully ignored) Santana's insistence on a huge contract extension as a trade stipulation, both to how much that handcuffed the Twins for trading him and its effect on the future value of the trade.
Absolutely. Also I don't know that Santana would have been receptive to a trade to, say, Kansas City or Cleveland, even if there was a big contract extension. With the full NTC, he was essentially acting as a free agent.
b-r shows 1.2 fWAR for 2010 for Hardy. And 0.5 for 2009.
I had thought the WGOM agreed to use rWAR for BR's WAR and fWAR for Fangraphs'.
oh, crap. Duh.
My bad, DK. I obviously mixed them up.
No worries. Anyway, I think we all agree with all the general points we're making re: Santana/Gomez/Hardy.
nice pick up by USA Today. Tom Pelissero leaving 1500ESPN to go write for them. Best Vikings writer in town.
Just today he became my brother's friend on BoF. Apparently his wife and my sister-in-law are really, really good friends. In hindsight, I'm sorry I didn't ask my brother to heckle Souhan at the wedding.
This probably says more about my level of intouchness with pop music, but when I realized it was Pharrell singing on "Get Lucky" my first thought was "Wow, where the hell has he been?" Along those lines, what, if anything, has come of the other Neptunes?
The other Neptune.
Chad Hugo and Pharrell are the Neptunes.
They record as N.E.R.D. with their friend Shay.
I see three credits to The Neptunes in the last two years:
One Pusha-T song on a mixtape (maybe an old beat)
One Song on a Rye-Rye album.
One title track on an Adam Lambert album. (Album credits Pharrell, single credits The Neptunes).
So, basically, "Working on his solo album"?
Ah, N.E.R.D. is the trio. That's what I was thinking of. Who I also confused with N.O.R.E. at times due to the similarities in their names.
N.O.R.E. is one guy, Noreaga, formerly of the duo Capone-N-Noreaga (with Capone).
When he recorded as Noreaga, his first solo Album was N.O.R.E., and the hit single off it, "Superthug", was produced by the Neptunes, and featured vocals from the singer Kelis, who was later married to the rapper Nas.
Nas, Neptunes, N.E.R.D, N.O.R.E., Noreaga.
I couldn't find a simple connection to the producer NoID.
Pharrell is also on, and co wrote, a song with Robin Thicke called 'Blurred Lines'
VH1 plays that song once an hour in the mornings
God, I love "Get Lucky". A friend put it on the jukebox a month or two ago, and ever since then, I can't enough.
Between that and the substantially less awesome "Blurred Lines", it seems to be the summer of Pharrell.
Oh, I just hate it.
The four-minute radio edit is probably two minutes long.
All of that may be colored by my loathing of the full album.
Each time I listened makes me like music, any music, less and less.
It's not just salt that's lost its flavor, it's salt that has contagious flavorlessness.
Is that all it is? Soulless, hollow pastiche?
At least Yeezus presents a palate-cleanser. Now I'm listening to Scout Niblett's cover of "Uptown Top Ranking" from a half-dozen ago:
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_qEjejzsEw
Thanks Ye! (I listened to her cover of "No Scrubs" right after RAM, and I can't tolerate it.)
I felt the same way about "Get Lucky" until maybe yesterday or the day before... and it just clicked for me. Love is far too strong a descriptor, but I don't hate it like I used to.
That is not an objective opinion on either the Daft Punk single or the album, just my subjective response.
without touching on the substantive issues underlying the filibuster, I'd have to say that I was fascinated watching the last hour of the Texas Senate's session tonight. That was some seriously interesting parliamentary theater.
Parliamentary inquiry!