Cup of Coffee

September 5, 2013: Selection Bias

84 Comments

Do people care less about the NFL this year, or do I only feel this way because I hang around here and avoid message boards and sports news outlets like the plague?

84 thoughts on “September 5, 2013: Selection Bias”

  1. I've been wondering the same thing. I'm seeing fewer football-related posts from my facebook friends this year. Football is still king, but there does seem to be a little less buzz.

    3. I'm done with football. Between the whole concussion controversy, the fact that my teams suck (Vikings and Rams) and the fact that I have no cable or antenna TV and can't watch games on Sunday anyway, I'm just done with the game. I've skipped the last 2-3 Super Bowls in lieu of having a date with my wife. What sucks though is that restaurants are starting to shut down the night of the big game, giving us limited options.

      Besides, when football is starting, that's just when baseball is getting at its best! Playoff season!

      1. I did that a few years ago and it was glorious. Plus, once the baseball playoffs are over, there's basketball! (if you're in to that sort of thing.)

  2. Worth selecting from a game recap:

    Left-handed starter Francisco Liriano (15-7) gave up seven runs, seven hits and two wild pitches in three innings Wednesday.

    That makes me feel better.

    1. Naw.

      I'm all for "our" guys succeeding after they leave, particularly when it is the organization that cuts the cord. Plus, you know, Twins East.

      1. Generally, yes. What makes me happy is to see that he's still occasionally inconsistent. He's not completely different away from our organization, which would tend to indicate our organization wasn't (entirely) the problem.

          1. Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up. Mauer's been having concussion symptoms for little less than half a month, so all we have to do is start Herrmann, start Doumit, start Pinto, and win games. After we trade Butera.

      1. And I guess this is somewhat related:

        One of the ugliest offseasons in NFL history is finally over.

        Since the Super Bowl on Feb. 3, NFL players have been arrested or charged with crimes at least 37 times, including 10 players accused of driving drunk and a murder indictment for ex-New England Patriot Aaron Hernandez.

        The list gets uglier if the second half of last season is included – three more car crashes and three more people dead in crimes allegedly committed by NFL players. On Dec. 1, Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher fatally shot himself in the head after getting drunk and killing his girlfriend. A week later, Dallas Cowboys defensive tackle Josh Brent allegedly drove drunk and flipped his car, killing teammate Jerry Brown in the passenger seat.

        Thursday's NFL opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos launches Roger Goodell's eighth season as commissioner — a period marked by almost $10 billion in annual revenues and television ratings that dominate American sports. It also features an arrest rate of more than one per week — an average that hasn't changed much from the days of Goodell's predecessor, Paul Tagliabue, according to data compiled by USA TODAY Sports. In Goodell's seven years on the job, NFL players have been arrested or charged with crimes at least 395 times, including 107 drunken-driving arrests, 43 domestic-abuse cases, 34 cases involving guns and 84 cases involving fighting or disorderly conduct, usually at bars or nightclubs late at night.

        Are you ready for some football?

          2. This BJS brief from 2012 helps answer those questions.

            For males in the 15-25 age range, simple assault arrest rates are roughly 1.5 percent (~1,500 simple assault arrests per 100,000; I'm making some back-of-envelope calculations off of graphs). Weapon law arrests are in the neighborhood of 180-190 per 100,000. etc. Drug arrests are in the neighborhood of 1,600 per 100,000.

                1. yes, but compared to just the simple assault arrest rate for the year for all males ~15-~25. I would have to exert effort to find an overall arrest rate for males in those age brackets, but it looks to be much higher.

                  The violent crime arrest rate for males 15-19 was 559 per 100,000 in 2011; for males 20-24, it was 589.

                  some interesting recent research:

                  High criminal arrest and homicide mortality levels among young people are often attributed to biological and developmental flaws innate to adolescence. A special data run by the California Criminal Justice Statistics Center detailing arrests by offense, age, and race/ethnicity for 2006 provides new opportunities to examine the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors and crime outcomes by age. Preliminary rate and bivariate regression analyses find that poverty is more concentrated in younger than older ages, low poverty status is strongly connected to higher levels of criminal arrest and homicide for every age, and poverty level is a significantly larger predictor of arrest and homicide risk than is age. The conclusion that higher rates of crime and murder among young ages, like high rates among African Americans, relate more to low socioeconomic status than to innate characteristics adhering to age challenges prevailing notions of the “crime proneness” of adolescents.

                  1. So... how do those arrest rates compare for people employed at a rate significantly above the median income?

  6. Oy. Hunter-types-at-the-minor-league-level, beware. You at the Major League level already know better, amiright?

    2. fun piece. But a rare bit of value in the comments. Why u no mention Rod Carew?

      Carew accumulated 21.4 rWAR in his three seasons as (primarily) a 1B with the Twins. This compares to Morneau's 23.2 rWAR career with the Twins. Certainly for peak, Carew is hard to argue against.

      1. As I mentioned with Killebrew, these players had to play more at first base with the Twins than any other position, which wasn't the case for Carew, who was primarily a second basemen. I'm planning on doing a series of these by position this offseason, so Carew will certainly get his due.

    3. I found myself curious about who came after the Big Three. Discounting Crew based on your criteria, Don Mincher and Mientkiewicz must be in that conversation. I'm guessing Mincher was slightly better based on the era he played in, but I'm not sure he was close to the same skill level with the glove as M11.

      Which leads me to wonder who was the best defensive first baseman to play in Minnesota. Vic Power has a heck of a reputation, but he was pretty old by the time he played for the Twins. I frankly wouldn't be at all surprised if Hrbek was every bit as good as M11.

      2. fwiw, b-r has

        Power -0.5 (301 games), -0.27 per 162.
        Mincher, -1.4 (617 games), -0.37 per 162.
        M11 -2.3 dWAR for his Minnesota tenure (643 games). -0.58 per 162 games
        Morneau -5.6 (1278 games), -0.71 per 162.
        Hrbek, -8.2 dWAR (1747 games). -0.76 per 162.
        Reese -4.0 (807 games, but only 3184 innings at 1b). -0.80 per 162.

        1. That's interesting in itself, but given the difference in games played, I'm not sure it tells us much useful about who was the best. There's a pretty harsh decline phase for Hrbek where he was still the primary first baseman, Morneau with concussion issues, and M11 leaving during his age-30 season. That said, it's interesting to see that Mincher was a bit better than M11 in nearly the same number of games played.

    1. The first headline write who came up with "Area Hoppin' With Brewers" to describe their local City's burgeoning brewing culture should have trademarked that sucker. He/She would be living on the Riviera right now.

  11. I do not have good teeth. Fortunately, I have a sister who is a dentist.

    The other day I chipped one of my front top teeth. My sister has been trying to get me to let her redo my entire front line of teeth for several years. So, tomorrow morning, at 6:30, I will be in the dentist chair to begin the work of getting 5 crowns, at once. I'm... nervous.

    The upside is that I'll be able to feel decent about my smile for once, after all is said and done.

  13. Every team starts the NFL season undefeated. But some teams are less undefeated than others, as evidenced by the Green Bay Packers, who appear fated to another lost season.

    RandBallsStu is back for another season of the Increasingly Lost Season

    2. How 'bout NBA buys the NASCAR tech that shows call-out boxes down to each playa (car)? Yeah, baby!

  15. filed under: I Feel Old

    at work today, I was asked if I had a 'Pinterest' account. I has to ask what a 'Pinterst' was.

            1. I'm not a jerk. That's a typo, not a real misuse like "Begs the Question".
              Also, I thought he meant his debit card or something.

  18. As I alluded to the other day, I missed the fantasy draft. However, as I just told jizanthapus/Patton (whoever that is...who is that?), I totally knew who Julius Thomas was and kept him on purpose. He most certainly wasn't simply a placeholder for Gronkowski.

    1. I'm not too happy that Hitman goes and drafts a TE on IR, and then this guy walks in off the street for him half an hour before game time.

    2. Sigh. Higgs hit me over the head with a Manning. That's okay though, I have him in another league that I actually paid money for.

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