63 thoughts on “September 10, 2013: Kickstart”

  1. Some fascinating research about the difficulty of perfect games over at The Book Tango's blog.

    This is the take-away so far:

    (nob stands for number on base in the game.)

    It seems pitchers might be capable of "turning it on" late in a perfect game, decreasing the effective OBP for the last two or three innings.

    1. I'm not inclined to go look too closely, but is he accounting for the possibility of defenses "turning it on" too?

      1. Defenses or umpires. It's not really known which parts are improving. The pitcher is an easy point since it's feasible that he hasn't worked hard through six or seven innings and knows the end is nigh. It's possible that the starter can turn into a reliever of sorts and throw with more effort.

        2. Or the offense isn't trying as hard.

          I wonder if the percentages change based on the score of the game.

          1. there are any number of "signature" outcomes that could be used to test these hypotheses -- shutouts, no-hitters, complete games, etc.

    2. A perfect game also is batting order dependent. Since no one has reached base, the third, sixth and ninth innings are always the bottom of the order (or perhaps a pinch hitter or two).

      1. Well yes, but the issue is that the batters begin seriously under performing their expected OBP. The expected OBP at the end (26th batter I think, 27th is often a PHer) is around .290 and the actual is around .220.

  2. fall, my @ss. It was 107 here yesterday. I was driving back from SF, where it was in the 60s. All of a sudden, my car's thermometer shot up to triple digits. I thought maybe it was broken. Then I got out of the car. WTF?

    3. 110 here the last few days, but rain has broken it up here and there. Last night the Milkmaid and I sat out on the porch during a storm after a very long couple of days. That was fun, though for the first time in about three years, I got a mosquito bite.

    4. I was back in ND again unexpectedly and it was hotter in Lamoure county than in DC. And now the reverse. BRING ON FALL ALREADY.

    5. We were in triple digits a couple days ago, but it's "only" supposed to be 91 here today. My wife's third grade class had PE outside for the first time in two weeks yesterday since they have their PE in the afternoons. No gym on their campus, either.

  3. Mrs. Hayes and I are headed to Baltimore for a wedding this coming weekend, and we have one extra day (Sunday) to ourselves. She wants to visit the bay, and I'd like to see Ft. McHenry. Apart from that, if anyone has any suggestions for what is a one-day must-see, I'd appreciate hearing about it. And if you have a must-eat Baltimore food suggestion, I definitely want to hear that.

    1. Mrs. Runner and I leave Thursday AM for Ocean City on the Jersey shore. We're staying at a rented house with Mrs. Runner's BIL and family, so I'm sure they have some things in mind. Otherwise, Bailey's and relaxing on the beach...

    2. Lexington Market is pretty fun but I'm unsure it is open on Sundays. If you go to the Chesapeake start early and come back early if you fly out Sunday. If I had one day in Bmore I'd probably do Lexington, Federal Hill, Little Italy, and something on the water depending on the time I had.

  4. Blah, so it was the steering rack. Worst case scenario, basically. I won't hit four figures, but its still a few hundred more than I was hoping to have to spend.

    2. Speaking of cars; the AC Compressor went out on our Civic. They want a ton of money to change it here in DC. Do I bite the bullet or pay the 250 and change it myself and have it filled at the shop?

      1. I guess it depends on how comfortable you are with serpentine belt replacement. I did a quick search out of curiosity, and it looks like replacing the actual compressor wouldn't be bad and it would all be done from above.

        1. I had similar findings. I need to do a little more research on the belts but I'm not unhandy. I'm leaning towards doing it myself at this point.

          1. AC compressors are usually pretty simple, especially if you have good access under the hood. A few refrigerant hose fittings, some mounting bolts, and an electrical connection to undo and that's it. You can even get refrigerant kits to refill the system yourself, although if you have the shop do that part of the job they'll use a pressure gauge to check the whole system for leaks, which is a nice value add. Serpentine belts can be a pain, but most parts stores will loan you a serpentine belt tool that makes getting the belt on and under tension pretty simple (and safer).

  5. CC to cheaptoy (or any other interested party): feel like a day trip? i'm thinking about playing hooky with the boy and going to the wednesday day game next week.

    1. As much as I would love to do that, I have a major deadline for a product release next Friday, and also no money what with the above.

  6. Thanks for the coffee...the last two days were brutal (but thrilling) and I fell asleep probably before 9:30.

    Cheers to the many of you that have already backed my game on Kickstarter...we're at 63% of the goal and still inside 24 hours. I have stretch goals planned as well, so we can go over and that's certainly no problem.

    Go here for the scoop. I honestly cannot wait to play this game live with a bunch of you guys sometime.

  7. Aquinas turns 4 today. It's a common sentiment, but, time flies.

    I grew up in a ginormous family, so I was always around little kids, always had younger siblings to ooh over, and be impressed by, and pooped on by, etc. So in some ways, I totally knew what I was getting when we had a kid. But I never came even remotely close to imagining the depth of love a parent has for a child.

  8. 2014 Twins schedule released. Twins open in Chicago (obviously warmer there) on March 31 and then go to Cleveland. They play the Dodgers end of April, Padres and Giants in May, Brewers back-to-back again in June, the Rockies to close out the first half in July, Padres again in August, and finally D-Backs in September.

    1. I fully expect at least 1 snow out in Cleveland.

      also, the Twins kind of get hosed again with a backloaded home schedule. September in Minnesota is wonderful, but watching another 90 loss team play play 25 of its last 43 games at home might result in some very small crowds

      1. Barring injuries, I fully expect to see Alex Meyer in the rotation and Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton in the lineup in September, so I don't think crowds will be that much of a problem.

  9. @higgum

    Holy crap, I looked at the fantasy football score this morning and couldn't believe it. Owen Daniels and a line backer combined to score me 30 points? I was so far down that Yahoo literally gave me a 0% chance to win. If you look at the matchup page it STILL lists you as the winner. But if it makes you feel better, I had Peyton Manning in one of my money leagues and I ended up losing that one on Monday night as well.

    1. Holy crap. I was sure I had that! I hadn't even checked after the game was over. It is funny that the matchup page still shows me as the winner, though.

      I blame Mike Wallace and Everson Griffen. And everyone on my team not named Peyton.

  13. While it's no French Laundry, Dr. Chop and I are headed out to Commander's Palace tonight for dinner. We're hitting up restaurant week in NOLA because we couldn't afford to eat at this place otherwise. Post at 11.

    2. Yea, I would love to hit the Commander's Palace. I haven't been in N.O. in probably 10 years.

      word to meat: zagat's says Cochon Butcher is the best place to eat in Nawlins.

      1. Let me assure you while meat is sleeping off his dinner that he knows all about the Cochon Butcher.

        1. Ha! Do I ever. A good friend's significant other is the general manager at the butcher. I'm trying to avoid tipping the scales at 400 pounds which means avoiding the butcher these days. It's both good and bad to know someone who knows someone.

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