161 thoughts on “October 1, 2013: More Elimination Games”

    1. Now with Texas gone I think we can all agree that Atlanta and Bosox are the teams we want to root against, followed closely by the Dodgers and Tigers? After that it gets pretty muddled. No great evils.

      1. without looking closely, I think that mirrors my thinking

        I can't say I don't want the Cards to win (living here and all) but they've been there. Several times.

        1. I'm pretty neutral towards the Cardinals. Yeah, they're kind of boring at this point, but given their level of success, they don't seem too awfully self-absorbed (compared to, say, the Braves and Red Sox.) Matheny had that Matheny Manifesto, which was a nice beatdown of Little League parents, so I'm down with that, too.

      2. Redsox vs. Cardinals is the worst matchup, IMHO.
        Detroit vs. Cardinals is second.
        Also, I'm against the Braves now, because of McCann, though I wouldn't have cared about them either way before that.

        I guess... let's go "Tampa/Cle/A's/Pit/Reds/LA"!

        1. If Dusty Baker would suddenly be laid up with a nasty case of shingles and had to relinquish managing to someone else, I wouldn't have an issue with them winning

      3. Tigers top my rooting against list, followed closely by the Barves. I wish I could hate the Dodgers more but I love Kershaw and Greinke and Puig. I have a good friend who is a Red Sox fan so while I'm not going to be thrilled if they win again, I'd at least like to see him get to enjoy another WS.

        1. I wish I could hate the Dodgers more but I love Kershaw and Greinke and Puig. Don't forget Nick Punto!

      4. I am somewhat conflicted about the Tigers, because I like Jim Leyland so much as a baseball character, but then my dislike for Cabrera and Hunter is probably enough to outweigh that.

        "Machado leads the league in doubles. I'm second in doubles -- double vodkas, double scotches ..." -- Jim Leyland

        I am pretty pro-Tampa, just because I have it in my mind that they are a bunch of nerds. And even though Nick Swisher likely is a nice guy, I don't like him as a baseball character, so having him written out of the script wouldn't be so bad.

        I am very anti-Dusty-Baker. I don't really even know much else about the Reds, but I can't forgive Baker for his crimes committed against ligaments and tendons. Also, let us not forget:

        "I think walks are overrated unless you can run... If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run." --Dusty Baker

        Really, I think I want to cheer for teams that seem like fun. Dodgers/Braves has to be the least fun match-up out there. Every time I see Mattingly he seems to be blowing a gasket over something, but no one does self-importance like the Braves, so go Dodgers (in 5 games, with lots of extra innings).

        1. I'm not even conflicted about the Tigers, despite similar feelings for Leyland, because of similar feelings for Cabrera, Hunter, Ilitch's pocketbook, and Mitch Albom.

          1. I think it's harder for me to get upset about big spending in cities like Detroit and St. Louis as opposed to New York and LA.

            1. I'm curious about this suggestion. I don't think I feel quite the same way, but I don't really feel like I outright disagree with you either. Care to elaborate?

              1. If I had to hazzard a guess, I would say that the spending in those two cities is more about commitment to winning by ownership as opposed to simply taking advantage of the huge markets that are NY and LA.

                1. More the market size than commitment by owners, probably. I doubt Det or Stl are much in the red, and their payrolls are at least something I could imagine the Twins attaining. If the Twins ever get to $200M, unless there have been big changes, the top teams will probably be at $300-400M, so LA and NY represent some sort of impossible dream.

              2. For lack of a better term, I think it is just regional prejudice. It is not terribly high-minded or rational, but there it is.

        2. I don’t really even know much else about the Reds,

          Reds fans boo Joey Votto because he walks too much.

            1. let me clarify, I have watched about 1 Reds game this year because ESPN rarely shows teams outside the eastern seaboard and FOX 'national' games are about 95% AL teams. But, a vocal minority are giving Votto the Joe Mauer treatment (not enough RBI! all he does is walk!), and they are vocal enough that I have stumbled upon some twitter posts and a few articles (here and here for example) asking why Reds fans/media are so hard on Votto when he is a great player

              1. The TBS announcers tonight were actually talking about whether he should expand his zone to drive in more runs. Complete and utter nonsense. At least the guy that answered the question finally decided that maybe he shouldn't.

            1. Easier said than done; who'd take on that ludicrous contract for a singles hitting pussy with no discernible leadership qualities?

        1. My beef with the Dodgers.

          Although to some degree it would be nice if the big money teams would stomp the smaller teams consistently and eventually everyone in baseball could grow up and agree that having more money is a really big advantage, rather than making excuses for the current system. For instance, sure, the Yankees missed the playoffs this year and they spent a lot of money. This is noteworthy because they've made the playoffs 17 of the last 19 years, winning 5 WS titles and 7 AL titles.

          1. When teams like the Twins (i.e. Dave St. Peter) talk about how money isn't the issue, I think the push back must be, "Oh, then you must just be incompetent."

            I think that would end the money isn't the issue discussion.

          2. The bad counter-example is the Mets, but really that's the difference between a competent organization with a lot of money versus an incompetent organization with a lot of money.

            There is no team in this league that compete year-in and year-out without a top 5 payroll.

      5. I was really kind of digging the Braves until the McCann idiocy. They were my preseason pick to win the WS, partially because I followed Justin Upton there.

    2. All Pirates, all the way. I haven't really cared all that much about who won in the playoffs when the Twins weren't in it in the past. I just watched for good games and storylines. I'm definitely excited for the Pirates. A Tigers-Pirates World Series would be interesting just to have Leyland vs. the Pirates.

  1. Budinger going to Dr. Andrews today to have knee examined. Should know more soon about how long he's going to be out. I'm presuming that he'll miss most if not all of the season. I don't know that, but as a fan, I'm preparing myself for that.

    1. I want to steel myself for that possibility, but my hopefulness keeps making me trust the initial estimate of 6-8 weeks. I just live to be let down.

    1. on the bright side, my kid will be playing at Carnegie Hall in the spring of 2015! (h.s. wind ensemble festival)

      1. When I lived in LA in the late 80's, a huge percentage of the public classical station's broadcasting was Minnesota-made, between the MSO, St. Paul Sunday Morning, PHC, etc. Hate to see that presence eroding.

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            1. Me too...I just don't see how this can end well. I was really hoping that the prospect of losing Vanska would jolt them into some sort of compromise. I should have known better - the similarities are a bit off-putting: forbidden zone

              1. And another thing: forbidden zone

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                Sorry guys...

  2. So, I'm taking our cat to the vet today. She recently started drinking tons of water and is urinating like crazy. The most likely causes seem to be feline diabetes, some form of kidney disease, or a thyroid issue. I'm hoping it's something that can be treated, but she's 14 years old so I can't claim to be very optimistic about the diagnosis right now.

    1. Ours developed feline lice last month. I think she got it from contact with a stray she encountered on our porch during her last escape attempt. These little bloodsucking bastards are very difficult to kill.

    2. My little girl did the opposite – quit eating and drinking. It was untreatable. Fingers crossed that things aren't the same with your cat, Twayn.

    3. My cat got fat and then we noticed his litter box would get these giant lumps of clay that were very hard to clean out. Turned out to be diabetes. We gave him daily insulin shots for about a year before he died. Giving insulin is easy. Getting drops of blood to test blood sugar was the hard part. He seemed happy and relatively healthy until about the last week of his life when he suddenly stopped eating.

  3. Close circuit to Sean or someone else. I still can't get my excel to format properly for my top300 Twins data even though I saved the data as a csv first. Can you look at the draft I just saved with the data. Let me know if you can't format it based on what's there and I can email you a copy of the csv file.

    1. The file was exported as tab-delimited rather than comma-delimited. If you want to keep the list as-is, it would be easy to fix.

      1. strange. I saved it right as comma delimited (although I have no idea what that means) and then copy/pasted. Let me know what's easiest, if there's something that can be cleaned up as-is or emailing you the csv file.

        1. It means commas separate each field. Excel 2010 has two separate options, so it would take some effort to get it wrong. LibreOffice defaults to tab-delimited I think, which is rather annoying.

          I updated it, but the plugin needs some work. It doesn't like commas in a field, which is a bug.

          1. I think my excel is super old (maybe 2003ish), I'm guessing that's the problem. Do I delete out the commas from CSV and re-copy/paste?

            1. No, leave it as it is for now. I think WordPress is getting in the way now, so this is going to complicate things.

              1. I see last year's post which used to look fine is all gobbledy so wordpress must have made changes in that formatting in the last year in how it handles commas.

                    1. I find it hilarious that forgetting whatsisnamethecatcher would cause so much collateral damage.

    1. "we were the team that everybody patterned themselves after for a decade"

      That is an odd thing for a man in Terry Ryan's position to say, circa 2013.

    2. Is it still trendy to refer to Blackberries?

      I have a non-smart phone - I have absolutely no need to pay a ton of money for something that literally doesn't have a single application for a guy who rarely leaves his house or work - and I get a ton of crap for it at work. Yes, this is partially because people know these things don't bother me and I don't care, but I think it's hilarious that people are insecure enough that they feel less self-worth if they don't have the newest, coolest phone.

      Sorry to go off the rails, but I really do not get the obsession with Smartphones. Kudos to the companies for making people shell out tons of money for things with a minimal cost - like they did for years with long distance - but what's the huge draw? I keep thinking there must be something about Smartphones that's been kept a secret from me.

      1. It comes down to this: You have a pretty powerful and fast computer that fits in your pocket and can carry in your hand. Plus it's easy to use.

        1. Yup. I can read/send email, manage my blog, or look something up without needing to pull my laptop out of my bag. When I ride the bus or wait for an appointment I can read my NewsBlur RSS app like a newspaper. I have a point-and-shoot quality camera with me at all times. And that's just the beginning.

          For folks who work from home, I can see how smartphones might seem like a frivolous piece of tech. The first time an app on your phone notifies you that your wife has updated the shared grocery list from work while you're on your way to the store might change your mind, though.

        2. Computer in pocket, yeah.

          It hasn't replaced my home PC by a long shot, and it hasn't replaced my iPod, but the ability to google something at any given moment is pretty amazing.

        3. I get that, but I guess my life isn't interesting enough to make use of it. The number of times I need a computer in my pocket are almost nil. If I'm ever further away from my house than two blocks, perhaps I'll want one.

          Also, my opinion may be colored by the fact that we've been successfully fighting debt for a few years and we have less than two to go. The biggest reason we've found success is that we constantly question whether or not something is a necessity.

          1. I’m ever further away from my house than two blocks, perhaps I’ll want one.
            I use my phone a ton at home. Part of that is because it's hard to use a laptop while holding a baby, but there are numerous instances where getting the laptop is more effort then checking the phone briefly. It reduces the friction of doing things that would otherwise require a computer. That has good and bad sides, but I enjoy it.

            1. My wife really loves her smartphone and uses it all the time in the house. She also has an iPad, which she uses. The desktop rarely gets used anymore.

            1. Cost is the big problem. Thankfully, there are an increasing number of carriers that are much cheaper than the big carriers. If trying some austerity measures to bring finances under control, then anything is too much, but I hope more people would pick the cheaper plans and force carriers to be reasonable on pricing.

              1. Indeed. As I've said, I switched from paying $120/month at U.S. Cellular for me and my wife to have 1200 shared minutes, texting, but no data plan to paying $80/month total for me to have 300 minutes, her to have 1200, both to have texting and unlimited data from Virgin Mobile. I had to pay for the phone, but the big carriers can pretty much go straight to hell.

                1. For anyone on AT&T, Consumer Cellular allows you to use an AT&T phone since it uses the same type of SIM card. They have very cheap plans, especially if you don't use your phone very much.

                  1. There's only one type of SIM (albeit in several sizes). The issue is that the phone needs to support the wireless bands of the desired carrier.

          2. We constantly question whether or not something is a necessity.

            This. It's amazing to me how many people I know that have smartphones or even multiple smartphones in a family. They can't keep up with their mortgage or their credit card bills, but they have an iPhone 7 (or whatever the latest one is).

      2. My wife and I both jumped on the smart phone bandwagon when our kids got in more activities. We both have Google calendars. The local sports associations have online schedules that automatically download to our Google calendars. If a change in start time or locale happens, it is immediately reflected in my calendar.

        My smart phone isn't a computer. I have outsourced my short-term memory.

      3. I really like having a smartphone and I probably don't utilize even 20% of it's capabilities. I use the phone/text message, calendar, camera, maps, e-mail, web browsing and music functions on a daily or hourly basis, but haven't really delved into the app world.

          1. Totally agree. For peace of mind, I like having a paper map in the car, but how awesome is it to plug a destination into your phone and have directions and a constantly updating icon showing your present location? Super awesome, that's how.

            1. What's even more awesome is doing a search for some place on your computer and the phone already having directions for you.

              1. This too is awesome.
                Or searching for said place and then being able to touch the phone number and have the phone call the place so you can make reservations or find out a start time or buy tickets on the way or use the barcode off of the coupon you left at home or had in your email inbox.

                1. I recently purchased this for $5 (inlcuding shipping, with Amazon points, so it was cheaper). I downloaded the free version of an app for my phone so I can plug the OBDII Scanner in and get real-time data (and there's a surprising amount of data to be seen in just the free version of Torque Pro) while I'm driving to work. That is super awesome.

                    1. I just bought a bunch of stuff off Amazon earlier today. If I'd known about this then, it definitely would have been included.

              2. and voice directions! and it seems to work better than Garmin in (sample size: one day in LA)side-by-each testing.

          2. Google Maps on the phone is probably one of the twenty best things ever.

            Except in the mountains between Atlanta and Chattanooga. When Sheenie and I were doing that drive in June, we were trying to hit several Civil War battlefields, and the Google Maps directions were all sorts of goofy.

            1. Also useless anywhere there's no cell signal. My brother in Wyoming has an impressive stack of BLM paper maps in his truck for finding his way around up in the mountains.

            2. Google Maps has no clue about the area around where I live. If I use it for directions for someone who lives in the country, it generally sends me several miles off course. I've learned to just call people and ask them what's the best way to get there.

      4. I'm a dumbphone person, and honestly I wish I was a no phone person. Also I am not old. I just don't like people thinking they have access to me anywhere at anytime.

        I remedy this by infrequently checking my phone and 'accidentally' forgetting it when I go out.

        1. ahh, I remember the good old days before I had a cellphone. Of course, I was a professor then, and really didn't need to be found by anyone (as long as I showed up for class). The mrs made me get a phone when I started working for the gubmint (20 miles from home instead of 10); my agency head made me get a smartphone when the gov'nor took away our Crackberries.

          I am tethered to the thing for email, text, calendaring and the rare phone call. I increasingly use it for other crap, such as teh Bookface, teh Twitters, directions (see above) and the camera functions. It is an all-but-indispensable work tool for me with fun and useful extras.

      5. I have a flip phone and I cant/wont figure out how to text.
        I am happy with this arrangement.

      6. I'll agree that I don't "need" a smartphone, and if the parish hadn't paid for it I probably wouldn't have gotten it. Having said that, it's pretty amazing learning all the things it can do.

    3. I am not sure that analogy holds exactly, but it does frame how other teams looked for a new edge while the Twins lost their edge. To me, if their niche is going to be scouting and player development, they got away from that under Bill Smith. Target Field's opening gave them a sort of win now mindset, and they went more for shiny stuff (like "C"losers and power-hitting corner OFs) than they did for, say, unspectacular but useful middle of the rotation pitchers, or contact hitters who could field up-the-middle positions. And that was happening just as the impact of worse draft positioning was hitting the farm system.

      They also seem to have lost even old-school creativity. Gardy used to platoon young players, sometimes to bloggers' chagrin, but at times he showed a knack for it. Kielty/Mohr/Buchanan, for instance, were effective in part-time roles but didn't do much elsewhere. He also used to let relievers pitch through some trouble, but seems to have gone full La Russa now, though I'm not sure he's very good at picking pitcher match ups. They could be old school and carry 11 pitchers and 2 catchers, but that is apparently too old school even for the Twins, which seems to indicate at least some degree of identity crisis to me

    4. I do remember when the Twins were known for not walking anyone, for example, and (to some extent) they used that advantage. Nowadays they don't lead in any useful positive categories.

      1. third-fewest walks allowed in the AL this year is still pretty positive. Until you consider that they were last (non-Houston Division) in WHIP.

        In the Dubious Accomplishments category, they lead the AL in double plays turned.

        1. Third fewest compared to first (with MUCH lower numbers than the next nearest team). This was a key component to keeping the WHIP to something reasonable; that and a good defence on the field.

    5. Look at Mackey's offseason stuff the last two years and he's been pretty wrong when he tries to bring his philosophy and perspective to the masses. I think the situation the Twins find themselves in now isn't their understanding of sabermetrics. It's

      1. Injuries
      2. Bad trades (sacrificing the future to win then, bad analysis of the players' futures, Bill Smith, and bad luck)
      3. A depleted farm system (the farm system that produced the current 25-man roster) - lower draft picks because of success over the last decade combined with top prospects not panning out
      4. The organization eventually entered rebuilding mode
      5. The status quo of finding low cost free agents to play until young players are ready to come up didn't work because of 1-3

      I suspect the Twins won't change their philosophy very much, but they will improve because of the influx of talent coming up. Then we'll see articles about how the Twins are a model organization again.

  4. Eventually I'll put my thoughts (and pictures) from our New Mexico trip in more detail, but I have to say that Mrs. Runner and I enjoyed northern NM quite a bit. I'd been to Phoenix several times before, but the higher desert climate around Santa Fe is very pleasant. We were very taken by Los Alamos, and I could see it on my list of retirement locations to consider (if I could ever retire).

    btw, lots of earthtones

    1. the in-laws have been in Santa Fe for something like 18 years, and I have yet to visit Los Alamos. 🙁

    2. I've driven through New Mexico once. Got stuck in a big snowstorm up in Cibola National Forest with less than 20 hours to get back to Pendleton.

      I've wanted to go back ever since, and photos only make that a more pressing desire.

  5. Analysis of Gardenhire's ability seems to be that he gets credit for the Twins winning in the past but it is the players' faults for the past three years of ineptness. I need a job like that. Heads I win, tails you lose.

    1. I tend to give him credit for neither, for the most part. At this point, I would favor change more than the status quo, but can't get too worked up about Gardy. I think less of his input in the roster would help. He seems to let the inmates run the asylum more than he used to--all of his moves now seem to stem around the idea of not wanting to hurt anyone's feelings.

      I do think that some managers can add value to a good team that they don't add to a bad team, and Gardy could be that sort of manager.

      1. I agree with you. I get so tired of hearing about someone being more comfortable at a certain position or, worse, a certain spot in the batting order.

        My theory is that Bill Smith's downfall was listening to Gardy on roster construction.

      2. I agree as well. The organization's problems are much larger than Gardenhire, and while his retention might be a sign of those problems, it's a silly thing to get too worked up about in the broader scheme of things. Absent more major changes, I'm ambivalent about keeping him.

        1. This entirely. Unfortunately, I'm dubious there will anything but small, incremental changes that keeps them at the status quo.

          1. This is it in a nutshell really. Most people don't have a big problem with Gardy as a manager. Sure you can point out issues with the way he runs a team, but that comes with the territory. What people are so riled up with the Gardy extension is that it signals that the Twins don't get that they are in a world of hurt and that all we can look forward to is the status quo or "small, incremental changes."

            1. interesting, though, that Theo cut Dale Sveum loose in Chicago after two seasons that look an awful lot like the last three Twins seasons.

              1. Are you saying the Twins should consider modelling themselves after Chicago, then?* Dale wasn't quite so close to 1000 wins, as well.

                *no, of course you're not

                1. that seems a bit harsh, but I dunno. Epstein took over the Cubs in the offseason before the 2012 season. Sveum was hired the next month, so it would seem that he was Epstein's hire (or Jed Hoyer's hire, since Epstein is Preznit, not GM).

                  the dude seemed to have had a nontrivial role in the success the Red Sox had during the 2002-2011 period.

              2. arent the Cubs in a little different situation because the have youngish pitching (Samardja, Wood) and position players (Rizzo, Castro) whereas the Twins BigTime young wave (outside of Arcia/Gibson) has not reached the majors?

                1. so, you are saying that Brian Dozier ≠ Starlin Castro??? 😉

                  For the record, Dozier's MLB career slash line is 240/297/384 with 178:67 K:BB in 963 PA, and he's entering his age-27 season. Castro's is 283/322/404 with 396:130 in 2,617 PA, entering his age-24 season.

  6. Last night I watched 2 episodes of Breaking Bad.

    "Hermanos" - Which I thought was excellent. Among my favorites so far. The back story stuff is compelling.

    &

    "Bug"

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  7. Who wrote it?

    I tend to think Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball.

    Your best clue would be that a Twins fan thinks this is significant.

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    1. although a quick search only could confirm him saying that late in the 2010 season, so I'm not sure when he changed his stance.
      I'm going to guess early 2011.

  8. Because I was looking at b-r.com...

    Tyler Robertson was the least-used Twin this season, pitching one inning in two games. Rate stats:
    K/9: 18.00 BB/9: 0.00
    HR/9: 9.00 HR/FB: 100%
    GB/FB: 1.00
    WHIP: 1.00 ERA: 9.00
    Inherited Runners: 6
    Inherited Runners Scored: 3.
    So: way better on the Walks and Ks this year, but if he can't keep fly balls in the park, he should work on keeping fly balls in the park.
    Needs to pitch better with men on base.

    He's now with the Nationals organization.

    The next least-used Twin was Butera: 3PA in 2 games, but he had 9 defensive innings as catcher as well.

    1. The next least-used Twin was Butera: 3PA in 2 games, but he had 9 defensive innings as catcher as well.

      $700,000 doesn't buy you what it used to.

      I understand that in the grand scheme of things, Butera's contract isn't a big deal, but why on earth they'd do anything other than offer him the league minimum and he doesn't take it to non-tender him is beyond me. This is the same crew that's going to get the Twins back on the right track.

      1. Pavano liked him.

        Speaking of Pavs, has anyone (JeffA?) heard how he's doing?
        Is he eyeing a comeback or thinking of retiring?

        1. The last I saw, which was at the end of May, he was hoping to make a comeback in 2014. Don't know how things have gone since then for him.

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