Cup of Coffee

August 20, 2014: Another Storm

87 Comments

The storm winds were so powerful last night we stayed in the car for a bit after going out to eat. We're getting pounded by wild storms 2-3 times a week lately.

87 thoughts on “August 20, 2014: Another Storm”

  1. Putting an offer on a home today. If this actually works...ugh. Well, it might give me a reason to chicken out of sit out and watch the coming Survivor XVI.
    When do you figure that will get rolling?

    Also, if I happen to be out of town when spooky comes into town, let's not take that personal. I was rather looking forward to joining in on a caucus.

    1. Congrats on that.
      I'm hoping my douse of cold water wasn't too alarming.
      Dropping the price on ours today. Turns out we're not built for the "wait longer for a better price" strategy. Because for one thing, our cash flow is pinched.
      And for another, we moved some of our things there for staging.

      I'll post a link if anyone wants a second look with a lower price.

        1. Man - gorgeous place there rpz. Surprised you didn't have any luck. Upshot is, you don't have to move. We still have probably 15 boxes and half that much in unboxed stuff piled in the basement from our move in June of last year. Have painted 3/4 of the interior (main floor and bedrooms upstairs) but only 15% of the basement...the list of household projects seems to be going in the wrong direction.

          1. Thanks! Yeah, we were asking just about the Trulia estimate, and it got a ton of interest (90+ showings, including 3 second showings in the 4 months), but no one pulled the trigger. I think the neighborhood was a limiting factor there, as it's one of the biggest houses around. Not having to move was a huge plus, but really, we were just sick of finding things to do in the evenings while strangers tromped through our house.

            We had got boxed up and moved a ton of the kids toys when it was on the market, so even though we didn't go anywhere, we're still going through some boxes.

      2. I just spent a long time looking at houses online.
        In the area of my house, almost every house has the first two digits of its price equal to the first two digits of its square footage.
        Basically, houses (and townhomes) are $100/sqft +/- $3000 and nothing else matters. Our old price did not fit in this formula. Our new price does.
        A bit further east of us, there's newer more luxury houses where this relationship breaks. That's not us.
        I'm guessing that those that fall under the formula are in bad shape.

        1. Our last valuation put us a little under that $3000 variance, but not by much, and our neighborhood got hit pretty hard by the recession re: lost equity. There was a lot of inventory available here for several years that didn't move at all.

          1. I just realized this morning that my formula puts us right at the threshold for dropping our PMI on our current house. I need to remind myself what I have to do to make that happen. Hire an appraisal?
            We've got a great rate, so a refi wouldn't benefit us, though.

    1. Inspired by his postgame press conference and his comments on bunting?

      I know it is Gardy and bunting comes with the territory, but last night was bad even by his standards. It was the first game I was able to watch in a while and ugh.

      1. Yes.

        The strategy itself in that situation and the dismissal of his average and power. I am done with him.

        1. I had something urgent come up that kept me from watching the game. I'm glad I missed it. Every time he has Santana bunt I want to scream. He's one of our best hitters. What a waste.

          1. No one responded so I looked here. With 2 on and nobody out in the 7th (Twins down by 2), Danny bunted foul twice on consecutive sinkers, took a ball and then struck out swinging.
            A pitching change and Dozier pops out.
            Another pitching change and Mauer grounds out.
            Inning (threat) over.

            1. And after the game Gardy put all the blame on Santana and talked about how the bunt was an automatic decision.

                1. I agree. I think the decision to bunt can be defended (not saying I agree, but I think it can be defended). But saying, "he's got to be able to do that to be able to stay" when Santana has been one of the best players on the team while learning a new position (without complaint or excuse) at the major-league level is ridiculous.

            2. two on and nobody out, down by two late, and the bunt decision was "automatic"?

              Run expectancy (BP, 2011) with runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs: 1.43.
              Run expectancy (BP, 2011) with runners on 2nd/3rd and one out: 1.29

              Yea, the decision is automatic all right. Automatic "no."

        2. I'm guessing that with no outs in the inning, down by 1 run, santana up to bat and a runner on first gardy went to the bunt sign on autopilot when he meant to sign swing for the fences. That, or a stroke hit and the bunt was put on.

          1. They were down by two runs.

            Actually you are pretty close with Gardy on Autopilot:

            "He might bunt and get a base hit. So there is no decision there, that's an automatic, we're bunting him over with Danny Santana. "

              1. According to that Wetmore article bhiggs linked to, only 2 GIDP in 272 plate appearances.

              2. the obvious problem with bunting there is that it would just lead to a walk to Dozier to load the bases for that pussy Mauer.

                1. I laugh at that because what if the managers got together beforehand and Francona tells Gardy if you give us an out, we'll give you another baserunner. Would he take it? Should he take it? Well, Tango's run expectancy chart says yes. Runners at 1st & 2nd and no outs averages 1.556 runs. Bases loaded and one out averages 1.631 runs. It's even more of a jump when you have a runner at first and no outs and you bunt him over and they walk the batter. So, if you are convinced the opponents will walk the batter if you bunt a runner over, you should do it. That improves the run expectancy. Not that this was the case in this game.

    2. Yep, after a quick review, I could climb aboard the Fire Gardy express.

      For guys with 250+ at-bats*, Danny leads the team in BA (.313), SLG (.463) and OPS (.812) and is third with a .349 OBP... but yeah, he should be bunting there.
      *at 259, he has the 6th most AB's on the team.

    4. I don't think that bunt is a significant event. The Twins are not in a playoff chase, the fact that this occurred has changed nothing. Perhaps bunts are never useful on a winning team, but I'm not even sure of that. I'm not sure why Gardy had Danny bunt in that situation, but it had no effect on the season. So I really don't get the outrage.

      1. I think it mostly stems from the Twins losing a game that they had a 91% chance of winning after the first inning. It was a frustrating loss and people want to blame someone even in a lost season.

        1. That and I don't think "lost season" entered into the calculation for Gardy. He would have done this if the Twins were 123-0 or 0-123. There was no thinking about the situation.

      2. I think people are just finally paying attention to the fact that his strategies, many times, don't make any sense. And his blaming of young players for deficiencies while constantly praising veteran journeymen is not want you want in a rebuilding franchise.

        I didn't just come to this conclusion. I've just decided to point to actual incidents as they happen.

    5. I understand the reasons not to bunt and I agree with them, but I also know that 90% of managers would do the same thing. And it's not like the Twins bunt that much compared to other teams. However, I am beginning to think that it is time for the Twins to look to another manager, especially if it means switching to Paul Molitor or someone not named Ullger (who at one time was considered the heir apparent to Gardy).

      1. 90% of managers would do the same thing.

        Then hire someone in that other 10% group. If a manager can't figure out what is obvious to a bunch of fans, they shouldn't be managing.

        1. There's more to managing than being in that 10%.
          I think there may be something in the very nature of professional athletics coaches and managers being conservative.
          #FireScioscia

          1. But I can't really get mad at anyone for this Fire Gardy stuff because:

            But one of the joys of fanhood is not seeing clearly. You don’t have to be right. You don’t have to understand all the nuances. You don’t have to study. It’s like Dan Quisenberry said: “The best thing about baseball is there’s no homework.” The games are there for you to enjoy, and if you want to get mad at the manager for not intentionally walking someone or if you want to believe the backup quarterback is way better than the starter – go ahead. True, the manager may have percentages on his side, and the coach might know a lot more about the quarterback situation than you do … but that’s THEIR problem. They are paid to do what they do. And you are not. You are in it for the fun.

            [Cite.]

            I just don't trust the Twins to not hire the next Eric Wedge or Trey Hillman or Tony Pena. As "Buddy Bell[] once famously said, 'I never say it can’t get worse.'" [cite]. He could have been saying "I never say it can't be me."

            1. I think this minimizes a real knowable problem. The manager does not understand strategy. If all he knows how to do is manage personalities, he should find a new management job outside of baseball.

              1. As we know, there are known knowns; there are things that we know that Gardy knows. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things Gardy does not know. But there are also unknown knowns, the ones we don't know Gardy knows.

                How important are Gardy's strategic failings? He's not Ned Yost on the Brewers: when the Twins have been good, he hasn't gotten in their way.
                Am I minimizing things or are you expanding his problem to be fireable? I'm not convinced that the Twins would hire someone who's better overall and there's a pretty good chance they'll hire someone worse. Someone with unknown unknowns that for Gardy are unknown knowns.

                As an aside: after typing all of that out, language has ceased to have any meaning to me.

                1. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things Gardy does not know.

                  If I'm hiring a manager of my baseball club, #1 thing I am looking for is that he optimizes the probability that we score runs and that we prevent the other team from scoring. If he's a great guy and everybody loves him, that is fine. It makes for a nice work environment. I just don't think it means much in the wins & losses.

                  when the Twins have been good, he hasn't gotten in their way.

                  This is a false premise. Like I have said in the past, I think the difference between a good manager and a below average manager is probably around 5 wins per year. What if the Twins had platooned Jacque Jones? Or at least moved him down in the order against left-handed pitchers? Would the Twins have won an extra game or two?

                  The problem with giving a manager full credit for a team's success is that I think you then have to give him full blame for a team's failures. If that is the case, he's done a terrible job the last four years and did a great job earlier in his career.

                  1. It makes for a nice work environment. I just don't think it means much in the wins & losses.

                    I think that at very least a not-nice-work-environment can create losses.

          2. Yes, but minimum requirement should be that he understand baseball strategy. There is no excuse for not knowing that part of the job.

        2. Sounds great, but I don't see the Twins doing that. My point is that we would have a 90 percent chance of his replacement doing the same thing. Everyone seems to forget that the Indians bunted a runner from 2nd to 3rd when trailing by 2 runs in the middle innings. As far as lowering run expectancy, that's almost twice as bad as when the Twins tried to bunt and the Indians won.

          And the complaint here is about bunting. Well, the Twins sac bunt less than the average teams in the AL and they have for most years under Gardy. Fans that disagree with bunts usually disagree with intentional walks, mostly because of run expectancy. The Twins also give up less intentional walks than most other teams. So the Twins in general don't give away as many outs and not as many free base runners either. Sounds like pretty good strategy.

    6. The teams with the most sac bunts in the AL are managed by Terry Francona, Joe Maddon and Ron Washington. The Twins are tied with the Tigers for the 10th most sac bunts in the AL.

      1. The Twins had zero sacrifice hits last night. They did have a failed sacrifice attempt, but that's not recorded. Perhaps the Indians, Rays, and Rangers have a higher percentage of converting.

      2. Cleveland (-3.6) is next-to-last and Texas (-6.0) is last in the AL in Wins Above Average for non-pitchers (Twins are 12th at -2.8, Tampa 6th at -0.7). I'm not sure that that gives a lot of support for sac bunts.

          1. Average players pursuing suboptimal strategies will produce below average results. Below average players pursuing optimal strategies will produce below average results.

            So I suppose it is hard to say with confidence. But my bias is that high numbers of sac hits indicates suboptimal strategies.

            1. I was thinking: Teams of below-average players makes playing for one run more a less-unwise strategic option, so it gets called for more.
              Managers can't wait for sluggers if their are none. Suboptimal players may also be "speedy, gritty type" more likely to get a bunt down than typical player.

              My bias is that high numbers of sac hits indicates low-scoring environment (with or without sacs).

        2. My point was is that those three managers are well thought of, in general, especially Maddon. I think Francona and Washington overmanage but whatever. I know when the Twins really struggled to score runs but had decent to good pitching staffs, Gardy would bunt more often. Do those teams bunt so much now because they struggle offensively, or do they struggle offensively because they bunt so much?

    3. That's two days in a row when I've been completely clueless, even with the hint. I'm pretty sure this is a drawing of a mountain next to a bridge. Maybe with a star on the end.

  4. You may have already heard this, but Kohl Stewart was pulled from last night's Cedar Rapids game in the second inning "as a precaution" due to his velocity being down. That's all I know at this point.

    1. Thanks. Postponed from April 27, so I think it was TBD for a while and I missed that it had been scheduled.

  6. Attention downtowners -- I have an extra ticket to tomorrow's afternoon game. The upside is the seats are in section 115 right behind home plate. The downside is the forecast calls for rain in the morning and a chance of rain in the afternoon. Oh, and you'd have to sit next to me. Shoot me an email at 'mymonikerhere+Boe at gmail dot com'.

    2. Okay, no takers so far. Anybody want to go to the game tomorrow? Bueller? Bueller? Anybody? Bueller?

      2. Tough schedule this week (I'd have trouble making up the hours), but I would absolutely love to go if you can't find someone else.

        1. If the weather cooperates, you are on, sir. Shoot me your contact info to my email upthread and I'll be in touch in the morning to make arrangements.

    3. I'l be there with one co-worker and five Japanese visitors. I don't know where we'll be sitting and I hope I don't have to pay for things. (See above comments on pinched cash flow. I'll recoup it: but in time?)

  8. Thanks for sending some of your storms our way, Spooky. Hopefully, it will lead to some rain instead of just a dog hiding underneath a computer desk.

  10. I got tickets to a sneak peak of the new Sin City movie tonight. Visually, it was just as good as the first one (if that style's to your liking anyway). This was the first time I've ever seen a 3D movie, as I don't go to the movies regularly nor am I disposed towards paying extra. I feel like the style of the movie lent itself well to the 3D effects. Storywise, I'm going to need a diagram putting things in chronological order between the various storylines in the two films, because I'm not sure what the order of events is exactly.

  11. Anyone have any experience with Ubuntu 14.04 LTS? My system update wants me to upgrade and I wondered how the new release was looking.

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